Discussion Leading Edge Foundry Node advances (TSMC, Samsung Foundry, Intel) - [2020 - 2025]

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DisEnchantment

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Mar 3, 2017
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TSMC's N7 EUV is now in its second year of production and N5 is contributing to revenue for TSMC this quarter. N3 is scheduled for 2022 and I believe they have a good chance to reach that target.


N7 performance is more or less understood.


This year and next year TSMC is mainly increasing capacity to meet demands.

For Samsung the nodes are basically the same from 7LPP to 4 LPE, they just add incremental scaling boosters while the bulk of the tech is the same.

Samsung is already shipping 7LPP and will ship 6LPP in H2. Hopefully they fix any issues if at all.
They have two more intermediate nodes in between before going to 3GAE, most likely 5LPE will ship next year but for 4LPE it will probably be back to back with 3GAA since 3GAA is a parallel development with 7LPP enhancements.




Samsung's 3GAA will go for HVM in 2022 most likely, similar timeframe to TSMC's N3.
There are major differences in how the transistor will be fabricated due to the GAA but density for sure Samsung will be behind N3.
But there might be advantages for Samsung with regards to power and performance, so it may be better suited for some applications.
But for now we don't know how much of this is true and we can only rely on the marketing material.

This year there should be a lot more available wafers due to lack of demand from Smartphone vendors and increased capacity from TSMC and Samsung.
Lots of SoCs which dont need to be top end will be fabbed with N7 or 7LPP/6LPP instead of N5, so there will be lots of wafers around.

Most of the current 7nm designs are far from the advertized density from TSMC and Samsung. There is still potential for density increase compared to currently shipping products.
N5 is going to be the leading foundry node for the next couple of years.

For a lot of fabless companies out there, the processes and capacity available are quite good.

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FEEL FREE TO CREATE A NEW THREAD FOR 2025+ OUTLOOK, I WILL LINK IT HERE
 
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Markfw

Moderator Emeritus, Elite Member
May 16, 2002
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@511 , here is the Ronler acres campus, HUGE. Is this where 18a is being produced ?


I drove around it today, took a while. I live 2 miles from here.
 

DZero

Senior member
Jun 20, 2024
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Looks like Samsung is KOed already

I don't believe the shutting down of nodes rumor but the yield problem is true
Samsung is really done, they are losing AMD and nVIDIA and barely survive thanks to NIntendo.
The issue?
If the chinese news are correct, China's EUV would make independant from anything from west, including Samsung and in few years flood of cheapo chips ruining Samsung's revenue even more.

And of course Glo-Fo would be KO'ed even faster since is likely to lose most of their revenue from that place.

Samsung can survive? yes! but focusing in mid tier products and delivering strong mid tier Exynos like what Mediatek did in the Helio G90T era.
 

511

Golden Member
Jul 12, 2024
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@511 , here is the Ronler acres campus, HUGE. Is this where 18a is being produced ?


I drove around it today, took a while. I live 2 miles from here.
This is the dev site for I4/I3/18A and 14A as well and initial wafers will be from this site


@511

Samsung needs to start collaborations with other foundries. They aren't going to survive on their own.
They already do iirc Samsung nodes are made of IBM IP there is basically 3 Leading Edge IPs IBM/TSMC/Intel
 
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511

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Jul 12, 2024
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IBM isn't really in the foundry game though. They don't have anything except research fabs. Samsung needs to collaborate with Intel and/or GF.
GF bought the their microelectronics Biz From IBM in 2024 as for Intel I doubt Uncle Sam would allow it 🤣
 

moinmoin

Diamond Member
Jun 1, 2017
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DrMrLordX

Lifer
Apr 27, 2000
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GF bought the their microelectronics Biz From IBM in 2024 as for Intel I doubt Uncle Sam would allow it 🤣

Yes, I'm aware that GF bought IBM's old fabs. Actually IBM paid them to take the fabs. It was an interesting arrangement. As for what Uncle Sam would or would not allow, S. Korea is still a critical geopolitical ally, and there has been collaboration between GF (post-IBM acquisition) and Samsung in the past. Where do you think GF got the initial tech for 14nm and 12nm?

Samsung clearly does not have what it takes to stay on the bleeding edge, and it's questionable whether Intel can do the same. GF, despite having left the bleeding edge behind years ago, still has some agile minds, and could possibly help Samsung improve older processes or possibly even do groundbreaking work on newer nodes. A consortium of Samsung, IBM, Intel, and GF would be formidable, and could possibly compete with TSMC given enough time to arrange collaboration.
 
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511

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Yes, I'm aware that GF bought IBM's old fabs. Actually IBM paid them to take the fabs. It was an interesting arrangement. As for what Uncle Sam would or would not allow, S. Korea is still a critical geopolitical ally, and there has been collaboration between GF (post-IBM acquisition) and Samsung in the past. Where do you think GF got the initial tech for 14nm and 12nm?

Samsung clearly does not have what it takes to stay on the bleeding edge, and it's questionable whether Intel can do the same. GF, despite having left the bleeding edge behind years ago, still has some agile minds, and could possibly help Samsung improve older processes or possibly even do groundbreaking work on newer nodes. A consortium of Samsung, IBM, Intel, and GF would be formidable, and could possibly compete with TSMC given enough time to arrange collaboration.
I think Intels and Samsung challenges is bit different Intel's challenge is not Yield afaik Intel 3 has good yields 18A yields will be fine imo the challenge for Intel is money and for Samsung it is both money and yield considering after 8nm I don't think Samsung has made any 500mm2+ chip.

In the end it's US loss and if Intel gives up as well it would be ludicrous imagine the company of the Robert Noyce(Co-creator of ICs) and Gordon Moore giving it up.
 
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DrMrLordX

Lifer
Apr 27, 2000
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I think Intels and Samsung challenges is bit different Intel's challenge is not Yield afaik Intel 3 has good yields 18A yields will be fine imo the challenge for Intel is money and for Samsung it is both money and yield considering after 8nm I don't think Samsung has made any 500mm2+ chip.

In the end it's US loss and if Intel gives up as well it would be ludicrous imagine the company of the Robert Noyce(Co-creator of ICs) and Gordon Moore giving it up.

Samsung actually has incredibly deep pockets. They're essentially a government-backed corporation with multiple diverse product divisions. What they don't have is . . . unclear. It would take someone on the inside to explain exactly what is going on with them. All that aside, giving other players in the semiconductor field full exposure to Samsung's IP might work out in Samsung's favor, assuming we're not talking about SMIC.
 

511

Golden Member
Jul 12, 2024
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Samsung actually has incredibly deep pockets. They're essentially a government-backed corporation with multiple diverse product divisions. What they don't have is . . . unclear. It would take someone on the inside to explain exactly what is going on with them. All that aside, giving other players in the semiconductor field full exposure to Samsung's IP might work out in Samsung's favor, assuming we're not talking about SMIC.
Samsung is also the reason for the trust issue with IDM Foundries they apparently stole the IP from apple at 14nm as for deep pockets yes Samsung has a lot TSMC is also state backed.
I can't say about Intel they have money problem Should have given Intel the money instead of TSMC for Fabs
 
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511

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Many american investors hold shares of the TSM stock.
Frankly speaking, they are the latent enemies for Intel and expose the U.S. Security to danger, without realizing...
Which is impossible when US was busy outsourcing Taiwan was making their Manufacturing Industry stronger and now it is impossible it is not just chips from PCB to ODM Design everything is in Taiwan related to these.

I honestly don't care about enemyship to Intel but competition and so far it's one sided due to the fact that TSMC gets the perks in Taiwan and they executed amazingly but they don't take risk last time they took Risk N3B happened TSMC Plays safe on others Risk which is unfair imo for the risk taker.
 
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oak8292

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Sep 14, 2016
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Samsung is also the reason for the trust issue with IDM Foundries they apparently stole the IP from apple at 14nm as for deep pockets yes Samsung has a lot TSMC is also state backed.
I can't say about Intel they have money problem Should have given Intel the money instead of TSMC for Fabs
I would like to know how this narrative of Samsung stealing Apple silicon tech developed. Samsung definitely stole a lot of ideas from iOS on interface. There was a law suit about it with a Samsung document showing their ‘borrowing’ of iOS features for their own version of Android.

As for silicon fabrication they essentially outgrew Samsung, they could not outrun Samsung using their foundry and TSMC would give them clear access to their best technology. Samsung hired the ex head of R&D from TSMC to catch up to TSMC.

Apple needed close to 40K wafer starts per month when they left Samsung. TSMC had the size and eco-system with hundreds of other customers to let Apple buy advanced wafers and move to the next node ‘relatively’ quickly, neither Samsung or Intel can do that. As IDMs both Intel and Samsung want their leading edge capacity. Why would Apple want to trail them?
 
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511

Golden Member
Jul 12, 2024
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I would like to know how this narrative of Samsung stealing Apple silicon tech developed. Samsung definitely stole a lot of ideas from iOS on interface. There was a law suit about it with a Samsung document showing their ‘borrowing’ of iOS features for their own version of Android.
I stand corrected here it was 14nm tech they stole from TSMC when they made A9 Processor I remembered it was something related to a series when Samsung made them seems like I was wrong 😅
As for silicon fabrication they essentially outgrew Samsung, they could not outrun Samsung using their foundry and TSMC would give them clear access to their best technology. Samsung hired the ex head of R&D from TSMC to catch up to TSMC.

Apple needed close to 40K wafer starts per month when they left Samsung. TSMC had the size and eco-system with hundreds of other customers to let Apple buy advanced wafers and move to the next node ‘relatively’ quickly, neither Samsung or Intel can do that. As IDMs both Intel and Samsung want their leading edge capacity. Why would Apple want to trail them?
That is true but now it's becoming increasingly difficulty to do leading edge semi so it might be possible for them to allow others to do this now
 
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