This is why Kamala Harris really lost
Cliff's:
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- Dems failed on inflation and the economy.
- Dems have shifted from a working-class party to a college-educated party
- Republicans actually won 18-29 year-olds. This hasn't been discussed much at all, as the data to confirm this is just coming out. This is a huge, seismic shift against Democrats.
- Republicans are actually becoming a true "post-racial" party. Ideological moderates and conservatives were more unified across demographics in 2024--white/non-white, young/old, rich/poor, native/immigrant all leaned hard toward Trump (value-based messaging inside and outside the official campaign works, even though we all know he doesn't give a shit about values)
- Dems actually turned out more politically engaged voters (i.e., those watching/reading traditional news, even Fox) in 2024 vs. 2020. The problem is those voters were drowned out by larger groups of disengaged voters, immigrants, and new young voters who swung towards Trump's promise to fix inflation/economy--the central issue in 2024
- These disengaged voters are swinging right because they are engaging with "common sense"/trad values" content (see above) that isn't necessarily perceived as political speech--i.e. Joe Rogan, Russell Brand, Jordan Peterson, Dr. Phil, Tates, etc. Heavier consumers of TikTok also seem to be shifting Republican (that's how they're winning Gen Z/Alpha); TikTok also saw a TON of viral content on high prices
- If more registered voters had turned out--Trump would have won the popular vote by a WIDER margin. In other words, Dems focus on "get out the vote" in urban/black/younger districts isn't working.
This was the biggest shocker for me--and makes me think we're fucked until we can figure out a new strategy
- Massive gender gap in 2024--which means Dem messaging on Roe v. Wade & access to contraceptives/abortion did work, but could also be part of what's alienating non-college-educated males.
What's really interesting is how voters of similar backgrounds are swinging differently based on whether they consume traditional media (TV, print/online) or new media (socials, Tok, Tube). Someone earlier pointed out that blue-collar voters vote differently based on whether or not they read a book in the past year. This implies that reading comprehension and the ability to separate fact from fiction could be playing an even bigger role than we'd like to believe. But that's a smaller issue than Democrats needing to find an identity and an ideological message that resonates. Data suggests a more populist take on economic inequality vs. their traditional "social justice" take. There's a chance that Trump's economic performance is enough to sink him (i.e. they can lose 2026 mid-terms all by themselves) but it likely won't be enough to help Dems in 2028.