I see two ways to get the national debt back to reasonable values.But thats not even the worse case. While I have long suggested it is impossible for America to repay the national debt, Trump may one day re-embrace a previous position of renegotiating the debt, which is a technical default.
Option one requires taxing the political donor class. The donors would rather burn the world than pay taxes.I see two ways to get the national debt back to reasonable values.
1) Spend within our means. That means having close to a balanced budget (including payments on debt in that equation). A balanced budget would basically end our debt in a generation as we would no longer issue new long-term debt. The debt would slowly go away naturally as we pay each bond off. This is controlled and orderly. But it requires politicians to think of the long term instead of their next election in 1.5 years. Very few politicians can herd 535 cats. But, actually Trump is one of the few who could herd just enough cats with power to do it.
2) Default (in any form) and have the outside world force us into a balanced budget. If no one lends to us, then we can't keep borrowing, and we are forced into austerity. Of course, as you said, this is messy and a nightmare scenario. Think of a major depression at the least.
Seems like #2 is all that anyone ever argues for.
Yeah, I'll end up buying the same three index funds for my fourth child as a child saving, one of them being a US growth. So the question is simply how much rebate will there be when I buy.I'm caught in 2 minds.. do I trust the S&P 500 to recover or do I put it somewhere safer?
We've never had a government actively try to destroy America and S&P 500 was always based in the belief of America.
Yep. After railing against NAFTA (North American Free Trade Agreement) for years, Trump 1 finally negotiated a new deal. It was replaced by the nearly identical USMCA (United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement). You'd have to go over it with a fine tooth comb to find any difference and those few differences are negligibly different. But, Trump got his "win" with another deal.EU will make a deal, but it's not going to be much different from what we had before.
Also one of the funds is the Danish C25 index which is also bleeding red ATM, so personally I prefer to miss out on the bottom, than trying catch a falling knife.Yeah, I'll end up buying the same three index funds for my fourth child as a child saving, one of them being a US growth. So the question is simply how much rebate will there be when I buy.
If he is already gives up on Ukraine after three months in a war he could "fix" in one day, we know he'll fold within the next 90 days or so. The question there being if anyone of importance (China) wants to strike any deal...
EU will make a deal, but it's not going to be much different from what we had before.
What would happen to the markets if US treasuries weren't a thing any more? Would investors just gravitate towards other bonds? It might be worthwhile to keep a small deficit while paying off the current debt over the next 30 years.I see two ways to get the national debt back to reasonable values.
1) Spend within our means. That means having close to a balanced budget (including payments on debt in that equation). A balanced budget would basically end our debt in a generation as we would no longer issue new long-term debt. The debt would slowly go away naturally as we pay each bond off. This is controlled and orderly. But it requires politicians to think of the long term instead of their next election in 1.5 years. Very few politicians can herd 535 cats. But, actually Trump is one of the few who could herd just enough cats with power to do it.
2) Default (in any form) and have the outside world force us into a balanced budget. If no one lends to us, then we can't keep borrowing, and we are forced into austerity. Of course, as you said, this is messy and a nightmare scenario. Think of a major depression at the least.
Seems like #2 is all that anyone ever argues for.
What would happen to the markets if US treasuries weren't a thing any more? Would investors just gravitate towards other bonds? It might be worthwhile to keep a small deficit while paying off the current debt over the next 30 years.
What would happen to the markets if US treasuries weren't a thing any more? Would investors just gravitate towards other bonds? It might be worthwhile to keep a small deficit while paying off the current debt over the next 30 years.
I do not think fully balanced budgets are a good idea (which is why I said "close to balanced"). Mostly for the risk that causes. What if someone attacks us? Oh well, we have to have a balanced budget so no defending us until the next fiscal year. Or another Covid--do nothing until next year. Etc. But long term the goal should be close to balanced as the direction we are heading of don't tax but spend anyways is unsustainable.That was a topic of much discussion in the second Clinton term. The prevailing thought then was that having no U.S treasuries to buy would lead to financial destabilization.
Trump is attacking Powell again and Johnson is attacking the courts. Speaker Johnson seems to have forgotten that the federal courts spend the bulk of their time defending corporate privilege.Strong rally fading..
Trump is attacking Powell again and Johnson is attacking the courts. Speaker Johnson seems to have forgotten that the federal courts spend the bulk of their time defending corporate privilege.
Trump propping up Elon's ponzi scheme today with comments about not firing Powell.
Only that way can you lose 71% of profits and still have the stock go up!
Usually that means they expected it to be worse.
after 71% decline in profits?
Short volatility crowd. It makes no sense to me. I hate the short vol crowd.Are the markets stabilizing after the tariff roller coaster? VIX is coming down.
What to do with RBLX.
They report on 5/1. Sell before then, or hold and hope for a good EC?