The Chargers have the tools to win. However, I don't think they have the mental toughness to put it together in a playoff situation against the Colts. I'll try to not be a homer here:
Colts passing game vs. Chargers passing game -> Advantage Colts, better QB, better receivers
Colts running game vs. Chargers running game -> Advantage Chargers, if LDT plays like he should. A rested Addai will close the gap.
Colts passing coverage vs. Chargers passing coverage -> Advantage Colts, Bob Sanders got 31 DPOY votes, Antonio Cromartie got 3. Every other player in the Colts backfield is better than the Chargers counterpart
Colts running D vs. Chargers running D -> Push, statistically they're very even
Colts special teams vs. Chargers special teams -> Advantage Chargers by default, Colts kick and punt coverage, other than Darrell Reid, sucks.
Colts pass rush vs. Chargers pass rush -> Advantage Chargers, they're 5th in sacks this year, Colts lost Freeney, then Raheem Brock, then Robert Mathis. Since then our pass rush has been all but non-existant. Brock and Mathis should be back, but it still isn't on-par without Freeney. Merriman isn't the same since he's not on the roids, but he and Castillo are still dangerous.
Colts pass protection vs. Chargers pass protection -> Push, 23 sacks given up by Colts, 24 sacks given up by Chargers
Colts run blocking vs. Chargers run blocking -> Push, better yards-per-carry average for SD, same number of rushing TDs, more yards per game for SD, for runs for a 1st down for Indy, I'm not sure how much is the SD line and how much is Tomlinson, but they're fairly close
I can't wait to watch this game in the Dome. It might be the last one I ever see there, since the new stadium is opening next season. *sniffle*