1999 war games foresaw problems in Iraq (AP)

[conjur]

1999 war games foresaw problems in Iraq
http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/national/1152AP_Iraq_War_Games.html

WASHINGTON -- The U.S. government conducted a series of secret war games in 1999 that anticipated an invasion of Iraq would require 400,000 troops, and even then chaos might ensue.

In its "Desert Crossing" games, 70 military, diplomatic and intelligence officials assumed the high troop levels would be needed to keep order, seal borders and take care of other security needs.

The documents came to light Saturday through a Freedom of Information Act request by the George Washington University's National Security Archive, an independent research institute and library.

"The conventional wisdom is the U.S. mistake in Iraq was not enough troops," said Thomas Blanton, the archive's director. "But the Desert Crossing war game in 1999 suggests we would have ended up with a failed state even with 400,000 troops on the ground."

There are currently about 144,000 U.S. troops in Iraq, down from a peak of about 160,000 in January.

A spokeswoman for U.S. Central Command, which sponsored the seminar and declassified the secret report in 2004, declined to comment Saturday because she was not familiar with the documents.

The war games looked at "worst case" and "most likely" scenarios after a war that removed then-Iraqi President Saddam Hussein from power. Some are similar to what actually occurred after the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq in 2003:

-"A change in regimes does not guarantee stability," the 1999 seminar briefings said. "A number of factors including aggressive neighbors, fragmentation along religious and/or ethnic lines, and chaos created by rival forces bidding for power could adversely affect regional stability."

-"Even when civil order is restored and borders are secured, the replacement regime could be problematic - especially if perceived as weak, a puppet, or out-of-step with prevailing regional governments."

-"Iran's anti-Americanism could be enflamed by a U.S.-led intervention in Iraq," the briefings read. "The influx of U.S. and other western forces into Iraq would exacerbate worries in Tehran, as would the installation of a pro-western government in Baghdad."

-"The debate on post-Saddam Iraq also reveals the paucity of information about the potential and capabilities of the external Iraqi opposition groups. The lack of intelligence concerning their roles hampers U.S. policy development."

-"Also, some participants believe that no Arab government will welcome the kind of lengthy U.S. presence that would be required to install and sustain a democratic government."

-"A long-term, large-scale military intervention may be at odds with many coalition partners."

Appears that the Clinton administration at least looked into the possibility of invading/occupying Iraq, possibly due to pressure from groups like the PNAC?

This might also explain why even Powell and Rice both are on the record, in early 2001, as saying Saddam was not a threat and was contained because the thought of invading/occupying Iraq was known to be wrought with peril.

But, alas, the PNAC got its "new Pearl Harbor" and were able to come to the forefront since DICK had installed his war criminal underlings/cohorts/spies for Israel all over the WH, State Dept., and the Pentagon.

They were warned, many times over, and still invaded with no plan for a post-invasion Iraq other than some fantasy ideology held by a group of insane narcissists.

 

[UberNeuman]

Come on, you can't trust what Bush, Sr has said... He's a big libtard. This is coming out just before the elections to hurt the Republicans! It's a bias source reporting this!!! CLINTON!!!!!!!

/i think i covered all the neo-con attack points.....

 

[Darkhawk28]

The soldiers have been used as sacrifices for this administration.

Sick SOB's.

 

[Rainsford]

It is EXTREMELY well documented at this point that virtually every expert who looked at the situation concluded we'd need far more troops, and a far better plan, before we invaded Iraq. This myth that "nobody saw it coming" has been well and truly busted, the only people who "didn't see it coming" were Bush and friends, and that was mainly because when the actual military experts tried to talk to them, they inserted their fingers into their ears and started humming.

Going over this stuff, even if there is new evidence, isn't really going to accomplish much. Anybody who doesn't believe Bush and Co were intentionally living in their own little fantasy world when we invaded Iraq is some sort of diehard fanatic that won't change their mind unless Bush himself tells them to.

 

[sandorski]

Damn, though extremely redundant at this point, but the more info that comes out the worse of a decision the Iraq War becomes.

 

[dahunan]

Bush and the Neocons know more than any of those dunces who do these silly wargames.. Bush is the Messiah

 

[conjur]

Originally posted by: dahunan
Bush and the Neocons know more than any of those dunces who do these silly wargames.. Bush is the Messiah

Of course they do. We just lack the vision to see Iraq as a staging point for taking out Iran and creating a USA East that happens to control most of the world's oil.

 

[sandorski]

Originally posted by: dahunan
Bush and the Neocons know more than any of those dunces who do these silly wargames.. Bush is the Messiah

The whole Messianic push before 2000 is what made me Anti-Bush. John the Baptist didn't even fluff Jesus the way Republicans did Bush.

 

[BoberFett]

The only thing worse than Bush and his ill conceived war are the constant slurping sounds coming from his opponents as they gratify one another.

Originally posted by: UberNeuman
Come on, you can't trust what Bush, Sr has said... He's a big libtard. This is coming out just before the elections to hurt the Republicans! It's a bias source reporting this!!! CLINTON!!!!!!!

/i think i covered all the neo-con attack points.....

Originally posted by: dahunan
Bush and the Neocons know more than any of those dunces who do these silly wargames.. Bush is the Messiah

 

[Harvey]

Originally posted by: conjur
1999 war games foresaw problems in Iraq

Bushwhacko's father knew it before then. In his memoirs, A World Transformed (1998), written with Brent Scowcroft, on pp. 489 - 490, George H.W. Bush wrote:

Trying to eliminate Saddam, extending the ground war into an occupation of Iraq, would have violated our guideline about not changing objectives in midstream, engaging in "mission creep," and would have incurred incalculable human and political costs. Apprehending him was probably impossible. We had been unable to find Noriega in Panama, which we knew intimately. We would have been forced to occupy Baghdad and, in effect, rule Iraq. The coalition would instantly have collapsed, the Arabs deserting it in anger and other allies pulling out as well. Under those circumstances, there was no viable "exit strategy" we could see, violating another of our principles. Furthermore, we had been self-consciously trying to set a pattern for handling aggression in the post-Cold War world. Going in and occupying Iraq, thus unilaterally exceeding the United Nations' mandate, would have destroyed the precedent of international response to aggression that we hoped to establish. Had we gone the invasion route, the United States could conceivably still be an occupying power in a bitterly hostile land. It would have been a dramatically different--and perhaps barren--outcome.

Sound familiar? If only his idiot son could read!

 

[UberNeuman]

Originally posted by: BoberFett
The only thing worse than Bush and his ill conceived war are the constant slurping sounds coming from his opponents as they gratify one another.

Originally posted by: UberNeuman
Come on, you can't trust what Bush, Sr has said... He's a big libtard. This is coming out just before the elections to hurt the Republicans! It's a bias source reporting this!!! CLINTON!!!!!!!

/i think i covered all the neo-con attack points.....

Originally posted by: dahunan
Bush and the Neocons know more than any of those dunces who do these silly wargames.. Bush is the Messiah

Personal attacks are not allowed on the board, BoberFett.

Please edit your comments...

 

[BoberFett]

Cry me a river.

 

[UberNeuman]

So, BoberFett - do you really believe that anyone is happy about the useless deaths of 3000+ service men and women and the 45,000 citizens of Iraq?

 

[BoberFett]

I'd like to think not, but some of you seem to dance around and congratulate each other every time some liberal talking head spouts another anti-Bush rant. You're the liberal equivalent of feeble minded Republicans who spelled it "Klinton".

 

[techs]

The neo-cons believed everything that everyone else believed was not true.
The believed only they knew the truth. They based this on the fact they so very much wanted what they believed to be true, to actually be true.
The Iraqis will love us, deficits don't matter, outsourcing is good for America, etc.
One day neo-conism may be classified as mental illness.

 

[UberNeuman]

Originally posted by: BoberFett
I'd like to think not, but some of you seem to dance around and congratulate each other every time some liberal talking head spouts another anti-Bush rant. You're the liberal equivalent of feeble minded Republicans who spelled it "Klinton".

It's sad that's what you see... If Bush and his administration would have heeded the words of those before them, we'd have many more of our Men and Women alive today...

 

[Zebo]

It looks more and more like Iraq invasion was just for short term political gain and no-bid welfare for his connected freinds and supporters (32,000 MIC contractors making billions). I used to think Bush was just stupid - really believed he turn Iraq into Kansas. No so much any more.

 

[dahunan]

Originally posted by: BoberFett
I'd like to think not, but some of you seem to dance around and congratulate each other every time some liberal talking head spouts another anti-Bush rant. You're the liberal equivalent of feeble minded Republicans who spelled it "Klinton".

You are so lost and so far from the truth.. I hate bush ... I wish he was locked up in prison awaiting the electric chair... I am not his opponent...

YOu do realize that Bush and the Neocons are responsible for 15,000+ newly handicapped AMERICAN Soldiers along with those 3000+ dead - NOW ON TO THE IRAQIS - AT LEAST 50,000 .. How many do you think were innocent?


I could care less what you call me.. really.. enjoy your life and call me anything you want.. It doesn't bother me

 

[Harvey]

Originally posted by: BoberFett
I'd like to think not, but some of you seem to dance around and congratulate each other every time some liberal talking head spouts another anti-Bush rant. You're the liberal equivalent of feeble minded Republicans who spelled it "Klinton".

And some neocons take every opportunity to spout off and defend the Criminal In Chief, despite the fact that his entire war is based on lies.

Dying in defense of the nation is tragic, but honorable.

Dying for the lies of the nation's leaders is tragic and pathetic, and those who lied are guilty of the murder of those who died. :|

The majority of the nation has finally woken up to the fact that the Bushwhackos are living in a self congratulatory fantasy. Their crimes aren't fiction, and calling those in power out for for their crimes is both reasonable and patriotic.

 

[BoberFett]

Originally posted by: Harvey

Originally posted by: BoberFett
I'd like to think not, but some of you seem to dance around and congratulate each other every time some liberal talking head spouts another anti-Bush rant. You're the liberal equivalent of feeble minded Republicans who spelled it "Klinton".

And some neocons take every opportunity to spout off and defend the Criminal In Chief, despite the fact that his entire war is based on lies.

And those neocons are idiots as well. Why stoop to their level?

Dying in defense of the nation is tragic, but honorable.

Dying for the lies of the nation's leaders is tragic and pathetic, and those who lied are guilty of the murder of those who died. :|

The majority of the nation has finally woken up to the fact that the Bushwhackos are living in a self congratulatory fantasy. Their crimes aren't fiction, and calling those in power out for for their crimes is both reasonable and patriotic.

There's a difference between calling for accountability and acting like petulant children. I've said it before and I'll say it again, as much as I want the radical right out of office, I can't bring myself to vote for a Democrat to do it and I'll continue to cast my vote for Independants and Libertarians. And why can't I vote for Democrats? Because rather than being acting like civilized adults and discussing issues with the tact they deserve, all criticisms of the current administration eventually fall back to name calling and spelling it "Boosh" or some other childish games. Personally, I've never heard anybody, neocon or not, call Bush "The Messiah" yet that seems to come up regularly in this forum. Sorry, but I'm not going to take anybody seriously when all they do is throw temper tantrums.

 

[Zebo]

Originally posted by: dahunan
- NOW ON TO THE IRAQIS - AT LEAST 50,000 .. How many do you think were innocent?

Be careful with those numbers.

The Problem with sites like Iraq body count is they include sectarian violence which far and away and kill more Iraqis than anything, about 1500 a month. Next is common crimminals and murderers doing the killing. America is acting as no other country in history has ever acted to prevent civilian casualties in warfare. (to thier own peril IMO but that's another thread) Americans are literally taking casualties and acting as a buffer, to prevent casualties on the part of Iraqi civilians. I'd say the numbers of innocent civilains by Americans killed is less than 100 based on news stories. And I think I've read them all being a daily reader of antiwar.com who doesn't hesitate to highlight errant missles or thugs in fatigues.

 

[Rainsford]

Originally posted by: BoberFett
The only thing worse than Bush and his ill conceived war are the constant slurping sounds coming from his opponents as they gratify one another.

Originally posted by: UberNeuman
Come on, you can't trust what Bush, Sr has said... He's a big libtard. This is coming out just before the elections to hurt the Republicans! It's a bias source reporting this!!! CLINTON!!!!!!!

/i think i covered all the neo-con attack points.....

Originally posted by: dahunan
Bush and the Neocons know more than any of those dunces who do these silly wargames.. Bush is the Messiah

Yeah, what are we thinking, having a problem with the President invading a country and not even bothering to do the job properly. :roll: Clearly the only reasonable way to discuss the issue is to cast aside politics altogether and just go around acting like a big jackass on the Internet.

 

[Rainsford]

Originally posted by: BoberFett

Originally posted by: Harvey

Originally posted by: BoberFett
I'd like to think not, but some of you seem to dance around and congratulate each other every time some liberal talking head spouts another anti-Bush rant. You're the liberal equivalent of feeble minded Republicans who spelled it "Klinton".

And some neocons take every opportunity to spout off and defend the Criminal In Chief, despite the fact that his entire war is based on lies.

And those neocons are idiots as well. Why stoop to their level?

Dying in defense of the nation is tragic, but honorable.

Dying for the lies of the nation's leaders is tragic and pathetic, and those who lied are guilty of the murder of those who died. :|

The majority of the nation has finally woken up to the fact that the Bushwhackos are living in a self congratulatory fantasy. Their crimes aren't fiction, and calling those in power out for for their crimes is both reasonable and patriotic.

There's a difference between calling for accountability and acting like petulant children. I've said it before and I'll say it again, as much as I want the radical right out of office, I can't bring myself to vote for a Democrat to do it and I'll continue to cast my vote for Independants and Libertarians. And why can't I vote for Democrats? Because rather than being acting like civilized adults and discussing issues with the tact they deserve, all criticisms of the current administration eventually fall back to name calling and spelling it "Boosh" or some other childish games. Personally, I've never heard anybody, neocon or not, call Bush "The Messiah" yet that seems to come up regularly in this forum. Sorry, but I'm not going to take anybody seriously when all they do is throw temper tantrums.

So you're throwing a temper tantrum about other people throwing temper tantrums? That's some zen sh!t right there...

 

[BoberFett]

Originally posted by: Rainsford
...just go around acting like a big jackass on the Internet.

Something many of you do with aplomb.

 

[BoberFett]

Originally posted by: Rainsford
So you're throwing a temper tantrum about other people throwing temper tantrums? That's some zen sh!t right there...

You think I'm throwing a temper tantrum? I couldn't care less what most people in this forum think, either of me or of Bush. I just have fun pointing and laughing as they make fools of themselves.