2007 Hurricane forecast rolled back...

[Moonbeam]

Originally posted by: GoPackGo
So if scientists can't accurately predict a hurricane season, how can we trust them to peer 5, 10, more years down the road?

Oh and if you want to talk trends...in relation to what?

10 years, 100 years? 400000 years?

A million? A billion?

Dont forget at one point South Dakota was a tropical rain forrest.

Oh man, you really owned science.

 

[GoPackGo]

Originally posted by: Moonbeam

Originally posted by: GoPackGo
So if scientists can't accurately predict a hurricane season, how can we trust them to peer 5, 10, more years down the road?

Oh and if you want to talk trends...in relation to what?

10 years, 100 years? 400000 years?

A million? A billion?

Dont forget at one point South Dakota was a tropical rain forrest.

Oh man, you really owned science.

No dude...just trying to establish context....

But ponder this for a moment...if a scientist told you it was raining outside and your window showed sunshine...which would you believe?

 

[Atomic Playboy]

Originally posted by: ProfJohn
How can we have cooler than expected water temperatures?

I thought the world was getting warmer via Global Warming?

Two years in a row with reduced Hurricane forecasts?
I thought that Katrina was just the beginning or a cycle of killer storms caused by GW?

I am so confused right now, someone get my Al Gore on the phone so he can explain all this to me.

Originally posted by: 2Xtreme21
People don't realize that the climate getting warmer is not the big thing everyone is worried about. The influx of massive amounts of fresh water from the ice caps melting will fuck up the jet stream and eventually turn the British Isles into Siberia.

Moonbeam already pointed out your reading deficiency in assuming that lower than expected was the same as lower than current. 2Xtreme then brings the Al Gore explanation you ask for.

One of the biggest concerns raised in "An Incovenient Truth" (have you even seen the movie, by the way?) is that global warming will cause the melting of the glaciers that cover most of Greenland. As these melt, they will release vast amounts of fresh water into the Northern Atlantic. As the fresh water comes into contact with salinated water, it sinks, interrupting the flow of the Atlantic jetstream. As this jetstream gets diverted, the warm water from Africa and South America stops cycling north to Europe and our own Eastern seaboard. As the influx of warm water from the tropics is diverted, Europe, particularly in the Northern coastal countries, experiences a massive cooling effect that plunges them into an ice age.

Now, this is of course a doomsday scenario. But the real easy point to take from this is that global warming melts glaciers. As glaciers melt, they dump ice cold water into the ocean, cooling water temparatures. So if anything, cooler temperatures could be a sign that the doomsday predictions are correct, and man made global warming really is upon us in full force.

It's one thing to be skeptical of apocalyptic predictions that have the world covered in water within 15 years. It's another thing to blindly dismiss all science because a politician that you don't like says that it's true.

What kind of blind partisan smartassery do you have for that?

 

[GoPackGo]

Originally posted by: Atomic Playboy

Originally posted by: ProfJohn
How can we have cooler than expected water temperatures?

I thought the world was getting warmer via Global Warming?

Two years in a row with reduced Hurricane forecasts?
I thought that Katrina was just the beginning or a cycle of killer storms caused by GW?

I am so confused right now, someone get my Al Gore on the phone so he can explain all this to me.

Originally posted by: 2Xtreme21
People don't realize that the climate getting warmer is not the big thing everyone is worried about. The influx of massive amounts of fresh water from the ice caps melting will fuck up the jet stream and eventually turn the British Isles into Siberia.

Moonbeam already pointed out your reading deficiency in assuming that lower than expected was the same as lower than current. 2Xtreme then brings the Al Gore explanation you ask for.

One of the biggest concerns raised in "An Incovenient Truth" (have you even seen the movie, by the way?) is that global warming will cause the melting of the glaciers that cover most of Greenland. As these melt, they will release vast amounts of fresh water into the Northern Atlantic. As the fresh water comes into contact with salinated water, it sinks, interrupting the flow of the Atlantic jetstream. As this jetstream gets diverted, the warm water from Africa and South America stops cycling north to Europe and our own Eastern seaboard. As the influx of warm water from the tropics is diverted, Europe, particularly in the Northern coastal countries, experiences a massive cooling effect that plunges them into an ice age.

Now, this is of course a doomsday scenario. But the real easy point to take from this is that global warming melts glaciers. As glaciers melt, they dump ice cold water into the ocean, cooling water temparatures. So if anything, cooler temperatures could be a sign that the doomsday predictions are correct, and man made global warming really is upon us in full force.

It's one thing to be skeptical of apocalyptic predictions that have the world covered in water within 15 years. It's another thing to blindly dismiss all science because a politician that you don't like says that it's true.

What kind of blind partisan smartassery do you have for that?

So at what point does Global Warming turn into an Ice Age....or is Europe in an Ice Age and everyone else is turned into the lake of fire?

 

[Moonbeam]

Originally posted by: GoPackGo

Originally posted by: Moonbeam

Originally posted by: GoPackGo
So if scientists can't accurately predict a hurricane season, how can we trust them to peer 5, 10, more years down the road?

Oh and if you want to talk trends...in relation to what?

10 years, 100 years? 400000 years?

A million? A billion?

Dont forget at one point South Dakota was a tropical rain forrest.

Oh man, you really owned science.

No dude...just trying to establish context....

But ponder this for a moment...if a scientist told you it was raining outside and your window showed sunshine...which would you believe?

When Mulla Nasrudin found a parrot, a bird he had never seen, he trimed it beak and feathers to look more like a hawk. There, he said, now you look more like a bird.

Your notion of context is your own, and limited by your state of ignorance. A scientist, for example, will never tell me it is raining outside my house without data any other scientist could confirm. Science proposed theories that they hope will predict the weather. No scientist thinks he can tell you about next year. Weather science is evolving like all of science. We think of science, at its current state of evolution the best we can do. When was the last time you jumped from a tall building because the science of gravity is only a theory? Try to be rational about what you believe. Remember, a fool convinced against his will is of the same opinion still. Science is not for fools.

 

[GoPackGo]

Originally posted by: Moonbeam

Originally posted by: GoPackGo

Originally posted by: Moonbeam

Originally posted by: GoPackGo
So if scientists can't accurately predict a hurricane season, how can we trust them to peer 5, 10, more years down the road?

Oh and if you want to talk trends...in relation to what?

10 years, 100 years? 400000 years?

A million? A billion?

Dont forget at one point South Dakota was a tropical rain forrest.

Oh man, you really owned science.

No dude...just trying to establish context....

But ponder this for a moment...if a scientist told you it was raining outside and your window showed sunshine...which would you believe?

When Mulla Nasrudin found a parrot, a bird he had never seen, he trimed it beak and feathers to look more like a hawk. There, he said, now you look more like a bird.

Your notion of context is your own, and limited by your state of ignorance. A scientist, for example, will never tell me it is raining outside my house without data any other scientist could confirm. Science proposed theories that they hope will predict the weather. No scientist thinks he can tell you about next year. Weather science is evolving like all of science. We think of science, at its current state of evolution the best we can do. When was the last time you jumped from a tall building because the science of gravity is only a theory? Try to be rational about what you believe. Remember, a fool convinced against his will is of the same opinion still. Science is not for fools.

You put a "scientist" on a pedestal as some god like creature...assuming all intentions are pure.

A scientist is human and is fully capable of having an agenda.

Do you not admit the possibility?

 

[Moonbeam]

Originally posted by: GoPackGo

Originally posted by: Moonbeam

Originally posted by: GoPackGo

Originally posted by: Moonbeam

Originally posted by: GoPackGo
So if scientists can't accurately predict a hurricane season, how can we trust them to peer 5, 10, more years down the road?

Oh and if you want to talk trends...in relation to what?

10 years, 100 years? 400000 years?

A million? A billion?

Dont forget at one point South Dakota was a tropical rain forrest.

Oh man, you really owned science.

No dude...just trying to establish context....

But ponder this for a moment...if a scientist told you it was raining outside and your window showed sunshine...which would you believe?

When Mulla Nasrudin found a parrot, a bird he had never seen, he trimed it beak and feathers to look more like a hawk. There, he said, now you look more like a bird.

Your notion of context is your own, and limited by your state of ignorance. A scientist, for example, will never tell me it is raining outside my house without data any other scientist could confirm. Science proposed theories that they hope will predict the weather. No scientist thinks he can tell you about next year. Weather science is evolving like all of science. We think of science, at its current state of evolution the best we can do. When was the last time you jumped from a tall building because the science of gravity is only a theory? Try to be rational about what you believe. Remember, a fool convinced against his will is of the same opinion still. Science is not for fools.

You put a "scientist" on a pedestal as some god like creature...assuming all intentions are pure.

A scientist is human and is fully capable of having an agenda.

Do you not admit the possibility?

Of course. Science is science because all of science needs peer review and corroboration of data. It would just be opinion otherwise. There are many cases of scientific fraud. The hope, as the hope of democracy, is that a multitude of scientists won't all have some ulterior motive. Consensus building in science is a check on bias. Nothing at all is completely free of abuse and science is, in part, based on questioning itself in everything. Also it is based on data taken from the real world.

 

[Starbuck1975]

Global warming is hiding under my bed and intends to kill me in my sleep.

 

[Hacp]

Global Warming is not true, just like gravity was not true. Our world is flat, and we need to pay taxes to go to heaven.

 

[WHAMPOM]

Originally posted by: Skoorb

You poor right winged nut cases are making a religion out of denying global warming.

You poor left winged nut cases are making a religion out of supporting global warming.

WOW! Make a religion out of something that does exist. How can it be possible and how do you do it? Belief in the possible, what a concept!

 

[WHAMPOM]

Originally posted by: JD50

Originally posted by: Rainsford

Originally posted by: Genx87
Heh 05 they predicted it was only going to get worse. Last year had what, one hurricane that even sniffed land? Now this year they expect lower than forcasted hurricanes as well.

I think we should put our economic future in the hands of these snake oil salesman.

Is it possible that you people even remotely know what you're talking about? Seriously, the fact that you think this qualifies as a point raises some interesting questions along those lines... Anyone who has ever studied the most rudimentary aspects of science can tell you the difference between a trend along many points and a link between two points. The fact that temperatures might go down one year does not mean they aren't trending upwards over a period of several years. This is science 101, actually learning it might help move this discussion from political cat fighting into more intelligent territory.

Do you make this same argument when the MMGW faithful point to one hurricane and say that this is a sign of things to come? That is the only reason that this is being brought up, the MMGW nuts were telling us that each year hurricanes are getting worse and worse, so of course when that proves to be wrong we are going to point it out. Do you have a problem with the MMGW crowd doing this in the first place?

Personally, I am frightened by the lack of hurricanes. It seems like the quite that comes before something hits.

 

[OrByte]

Originally posted by: Starbuck1975
Global warming is hiding under my bed and intends to kill me in my sleep.

kind of like those pesky al quedas

 

[Atomic Playboy]

Originally posted by: GoPackGo

Originally posted by: Atomic Playboy

Originally posted by: ProfJohn
How can we have cooler than expected water temperatures?

I thought the world was getting warmer via Global Warming?

Two years in a row with reduced Hurricane forecasts?
I thought that Katrina was just the beginning or a cycle of killer storms caused by GW?

I am so confused right now, someone get my Al Gore on the phone so he can explain all this to me.

Originally posted by: 2Xtreme21
People don't realize that the climate getting warmer is not the big thing everyone is worried about. The influx of massive amounts of fresh water from the ice caps melting will fuck up the jet stream and eventually turn the British Isles into Siberia.

Moonbeam already pointed out your reading deficiency in assuming that lower than expected was the same as lower than current. 2Xtreme then brings the Al Gore explanation you ask for.

One of the biggest concerns raised in "An Incovenient Truth" (have you even seen the movie, by the way?) is that global warming will cause the melting of the glaciers that cover most of Greenland. As these melt, they will release vast amounts of fresh water into the Northern Atlantic. As the fresh water comes into contact with salinated water, it sinks, interrupting the flow of the Atlantic jetstream. As this jetstream gets diverted, the warm water from Africa and South America stops cycling north to Europe and our own Eastern seaboard. As the influx of warm water from the tropics is diverted, Europe, particularly in the Northern coastal countries, experiences a massive cooling effect that plunges them into an ice age.

Now, this is of course a doomsday scenario. But the real easy point to take from this is that global warming melts glaciers. As glaciers melt, they dump ice cold water into the ocean, cooling water temparatures. So if anything, cooler temperatures could be a sign that the doomsday predictions are correct, and man made global warming really is upon us in full force.

It's one thing to be skeptical of apocalyptic predictions that have the world covered in water within 15 years. It's another thing to blindly dismiss all science because a politician that you don't like says that it's true.

What kind of blind partisan smartassery do you have for that?

So at what point does Global Warming turn into an Ice Age....or is Europe in an Ice Age and everyone else is turned into the lake of fire?

Be honest, you didn't read my reply, did you? Or are you confused because the term "global warming," an observed phenomenon, could lead to a melting of glaciers, causing a massive influx of fresh water into the North Atlantic, disrupting the jetstream and ultimately leading to a massive cooling effect in the North? If that's your problem, then you should feel free to start calling it by the new scientific term "climate change."

I am by no means trying to say that the doomsday scenario that Al Gore paints in Inconvenient Truth is going to happen. But at least Al Gore is using science to make his arguments. Global warming deniers are content to deceive themselves into thinking that humans can't possibly affect our environment (never mind that we can stop rivers, create bombs that level cities and build things that can be seen from space), and that because a politician that they don't like says it is happening, it is inherently a political battle.

My favorite reponse from global warming deniers is the old "we don't know everything, people used to think the sun went round the Earth" argument. But the global warming deniers erroneously put themselves in the role of Copernicus; Copernicus was a scientist who was challenging preconceived notions. If anything, modern day global warming deniers are the ignorant masses who rallied against Copernicus and cried for his excommunication for his blasphemous, though ultimately correct, analysis.

We should not believe everything we are told. Nor should we deny any new thought we come into contact with. We should use logic and reason to look at an argument and decide whether it seems supportable. Global warming is supported by the vast majority of scientists, scientists who have far more training in climatology and other areas than you. Perhaps we should listen to what they have to say without turning it into a political battle. This is a problem that has the potential to affect us all; isn't it better that we give it it's due consideration than dismissing it because Al Gore is a spokesman?

 

[JD50]

Originally posted by: OrByte

Originally posted by: Starbuck1975
Global warming is hiding under my bed and intends to kill me in my sleep.

kind of like those pesky al quedas

In case you haven't noticed, Al Qaida has actually killed people, and continues to do so.

 

[Isla]

We actually have a pretty severe drought in Florida. We could use a Hurricane or two.

Water, water, everywhere, and not a drop to drink...

 

[RichardE]

Originally posted by: ProfJohn
How can we have cooler than expected water temperatures?

I thought the world was getting warmer via Global Warming?

Two years in a row with reduced Hurricane forecasts?
I thought that Katrina was just the beginning or a cycle of killer storms caused by GW?

I am so confused right now, someone get my Al Gore on the phone so he can explain all this to me.

I hope your joking. One of the major affects of global warming would be the onset of colder oceans helping to lead to a new iceage (Theoretical). Im too tired to do the research for you, you can do it yourself.

 

[Starbuck1975]

In case you haven't noticed, Al Qaida has actually killed people, and continues to do so.

I think the intent of his message is that some choose to use the fear of Al Quaida to push a particular agenda, kind of like the near religious fanaticism and dogma now surrounding some in the "global warming" community.