2014 Gasoline Price Forecast

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dmcowen674

No Lifer
Oct 13, 1999
54,889
47
91
www.alienbabeltech.com
As Clint Eastwood said "Go ahead make my day".

3-20-2014

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/americans-choose-savings-pump-over-174910419.html

Americans choose savings at the pump over oil exports



The number of Americans who believe U.S. oil should be kept on U.S. soil to lower gasoline prices rose in the last four months, according to a new Reuters/Ipsos poll.



Some 77 percent of respondents support export restrictions if that will help them save at the pump, showing how oil producers have failed to gain popular support to end a decades-old export ban.

Major oil producers such as ExxonMobil and Chevron argue that export restrictions, in place since the 1970s, will depress the price of U.S. oil and crimp output from new oil fields in North Dakota and Texas, now at a 26-year high.

Oil refiners, on the other hand, say exports will dry up cheap supplies and raise gasoline prices.

With voters still fretting over the price of gasoline, congress is unlikely to push for policy change before the mid-term elections in November, experts said.


"People may not know how much they're paying for electricity but gasoline prices are displayed in 3-feet high letters. These prices are sensitive signals in the economy," says Jason Bordoff, director of the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University and a senior White House energy advisor until late 2012.


"As a society, and as policy makers, people are trying to understand what the impacts (of exports) will be," he added.

PUMP PRICE


It is unclear what effect oil exports would have on gasoline prices. But some analysts speculated that they could in fact make gasoline cheaper.

"We believe that delivering U.S. oil into the global market could have the effect of depressing Brent prices, which is what gasoline is priced off of," said Patrick Hughes, an analyst with Height Securities in Washington, D.C.

However, independent refiners such as Valero Energy, the first refiner to publicly oppose easing the restrictions, say this argument is flawed.


"The whole reason producers support unlimited exports is because they're seeking a higher price for their oil," says Bill Day, a Valero spokesman.


"It's pretty clear to us that higher crude oil prices should lead to more expensive gasoline," he added.
 

Londo_Jowo

Lifer
Jan 31, 2010
17,303
158
106
londojowo.hypermart.net
Restrict oil exports, drive oil and refined product prices up.

No wonder you agree with restricting oil exports, it's the only way you see the $5/gal or greater prices you want so badly.
 

dmcowen674

No Lifer
Oct 13, 1999
54,889
47
91
www.alienbabeltech.com
Here is just one of the excuses the Oil Thugs in the articles and on here will use to have gas over $5 this year.

3-20-2014

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-...in-two-years-on-logistics-jam.html?cmpid=yhoo

Ethanol Futures Rise to Highest in Two Years on Logistics Jam



Ethanol futures rose to the highest price in more than two years as another U.S. cold snap may worsen a shortage of rail cars for moving the product to the main consumer markets.


Denatured ethanol for April delivery gained 9.5 cents, or 3.5 percent, to settle at $2.801 a gallon on the Chicago Board of Trade, the most since Sept. 7, 2011.



A burst of cold, possibly accompanied by snow, is expected next week for parts of the Midwest, where most ethanol is produced, and the East Coast, the largest consuming region for the biofuel, AccuWeather Inc. said on its website. Low temperatures should persist at least into the first of April.


“There’s a stack of rail cars that can’t get to the plants,” Mark Ruyack, a manager at Starfuels Inc. in Jupiter, Florida, said. “The weather, the snow, that doesn’t help.”


Ethanol inventories on the U.S. East Coast fell to 4.5 million barrels last week, down 29 percent from a year earlier, Energy Information Administration data snow. That’s the lowest in records back to June 2010.



Gasoline for April delivery advanced 2.67 cents, or 0.9 percent, to $2.8955 a gallon on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The futures cover reformulated gasoline, made to be blended with ethanol before delivery to filling stations.



“Low inventories and logistical issues have kept destination pricing for ethanol elevated,” David Dunn, a Naples, Florida-based commodities analyst at brokerage firm Progressive Fuels Limited, said in a note to clients.



In cash trading, ethanol was up 10 cents to $4.10 a gallon in New York, 12.5 cents to $3.15 a gallon in Chicago, 7.5 cents to $3.875 on the Gulf Coast and 11.5 cents to $3.915 on the West Coast, data compiled by Bloomberg show.


The New York spot price was at a premium of $1.46 a gallon to RBOB in New York Harbor as of 2:14 p.m. The biofuel has been trading at a premium since Feb. 25.
 

dmcowen674

No Lifer
Oct 13, 1999
54,889
47
91
www.alienbabeltech.com
Yet another excuse to raise prices:

3-21-2014

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/nd-pipeline-break-leaks-34-173341834.html


ND pipeline break leaks 34,000 gallons of crude



North Dakota Water Quality Director Dennis Fewless said the breach occurred Thursday morning on Hiland Crude LLC's pipeline about 6 miles northeast of Alexander. A gasket on the above-ground pipeline appears to have failed near a compressor station, spewing about 800 barrels of crude, Fewless said. A barrel holds 42 gallons.


Fewless said about half the oil migrated off the site but has been contained and no water sources are threatened. Hiland gave a lower estimate than state inspectors did for how much oil escaped the site, saying in a statement that "approximately 100 barrels of crude left the location, with an undetermined amount contained on location."

Hiland Partners LP, which owns Hiland Crude, has reported two other incidents to North Dakota regulators in recent months.


In November, the company reported a 500-barrel crude oil spill near Trenton at a rail transfer facility. Last month, an above-ground natural gas pipeline owned by the company caught fire in rural Williams County, touching off explosions that could be felt miles away.


Hiland Crude began courting oil producers this week to reserve space on a new oil pipeline that would run from Dore and Sydney, Mont., to an oil storage facility in Guernsey, Wyo. The company said it expects to transport up to 100,000 barrels per day of crude on the pipeline later this year.
 

dmcowen674

No Lifer
Oct 13, 1999
54,889
47
91
www.alienbabeltech.com
Oil oil everywhere yet Americans have to subsidize the world and love it:

3-21-2014

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-...-in-weekly-baker-hughes-count.html?cmpid=yhoo

Oil Rigs Advance to Record 1,473 in Weekly Baker Hughes Count



Oil rigs in the U.S. advanced to the highest level since Baker Hughes Inc. (BHI) separated the oil and gas counts in 1987, data on the company’s website showed.



A combination of hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling is helping producers reach U.S. shale deposits of oil from North Dakota to Texas, boosting domestic crude output to the highest in a quarter-century and bringing the nation closer to energy independence than it has been in 27 years.



Total U.S. oil output rose 33,000 barrels a day, or 0.4 percent, in the week ended March 14 to 8.22 million, the most since May 1988
 

dmcowen674

No Lifer
Oct 13, 1999
54,889
47
91
www.alienbabeltech.com
3-23-2014

http://news.yahoo.com/crews-try-con...wb3VoBHNlYwNzYwRjb2xvA2JmMQR2dGlkA1ZJUDM3MF8x

Crews try to contain oil spill in Galveston Bay



The ship collided with a barge carrying 924,000 gallons of marine fuel oil, also known as special bunker, that was being towed by the vessel Miss Susan, the Coast Guard said.


"A large amount of that has been discharged," Kidd said. He said a plan was being developed to remove the remaining oil from the barge, but the removal had not begun.


Jim Suydam, spokesman for the General Land Office, described the type of oil the barge was carrying as "sticky, gooey, thick, tarry stuff."


"That stuff is terrible to have to clean up," he said.


"The timing really couldn't be much worse since we're approaching the peak shorebird migration season," Gibbons said. He added that tens of thousands of wintering birds remain in the area.
 

dmcowen674

No Lifer
Oct 13, 1999
54,889
47
91
www.alienbabeltech.com
3-23-2014

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-average-gas-price-rises-212552750.html

US average gas price rises 5 cents per gallon



Gallon of regular gas up 5 cents in US; price has risen 26 cents in the last 6 weeks



The average cost of a gallon of regular gasoline in the U.S. rose 5 cents, to $3.56, during the past two weeks.


Industry analyst Trilby Lundberg says the increase stems from a jump in the price of ethanol used to make gasoline.


The average prices of a gallon of midgrade and premium gas were $3.74 and $3.89, respectively. Diesel averaged $4.02 per gallon.


Of the cities surveyed in the Lower 48 states, Billings, Mont., has the lowest average price at $3.18 a gallon and Los Angeles has the highest average price at $4.
 

desy

Diamond Member
Jan 13, 2000
5,442
211
106
OMG I hate white letters and black background!
Tried to skim that as fast as I could . . . .
 

dmcowen674

No Lifer
Oct 13, 1999
54,889
47
91
www.alienbabeltech.com
3-25-2014

http://www.businessweek.com/news/20...-russian-energy-toward-china-away-from-europe

Crimea Spat Pushes Russian Energy To China, Away From Europe

The Crimean crisis is poised to reshape the politics of oil by accelerating Russia’s drive to send more barrels to China, leaving Europe with pricier imports and boosting U.S. dependence on fuel from the Middle East.


China already has agreed to buy more than $350 billion of Russian crude in coming years from the government of President Vladimir Putin. The ties are likely to deepen as the U.S. and Europe levy sanctions against Russia as punishment for the invasion of Ukraine.


Such shifts will be hard to overcome. Europe, which gets about 30 percent of its natural gas from Russia, has few viable immediate alternatives. The U.S., even after the shale boom, must import 40 percent of its crude oil, 10.6 million barrels a day that leaves the country vulnerable to global markets.


Europe will face higher gas prices if Russia successfully curtails pipeline supplies and diverts volumes to Asia, as more expensive shipments of the heating- and power-plant fuel arrive by tanker at European ports, said Peter Morici, an economist and professor at the University of Maryland.



The U.S. will turn to the Middle East to replace any barrels it loses from Russia, he said.
 

Meghan54

Lifer
Oct 18, 2009
11,684
5,222
136
What I find remarkable is how stable gas prices have been over the last 3 years.....





But I have a question......when you say this: "...they should be forced to lower the price", exactly how would you accomplish that? Nationalize all the gas and oil companies in the U.S., something like Venezuela did? Or put price controls on gas and oil prices within the U.S., which completely ignores the world price of gas and oil?

What is your solution? You demand prices get dropped for gasoline, yet I don't see a solution proposed. Outside of government intervention and control of that industry, I don't see how the oil industry will be forced to do a darned thing. And that's what you're advocating, right?
 

dmcowen674

No Lifer
Oct 13, 1999
54,889
47
91
www.alienbabeltech.com
What I find remarkable is how stable gas prices have been over the last 3 years.....

But I have a question......when you say this: "...they should be forced to lower the price", exactly how would you accomplish that? Nationalize all the gas and oil companies in the U.S., something like Venezuela did? Or put price controls on gas and oil prices within the U.S., which completely ignores the world price of gas and oil?

What is your solution? You demand prices get dropped for gasoline, yet I don't see a solution proposed. Outside of government intervention and control of that industry, I don't see how the oil industry will be forced to do a darned thing. And that's what you're advocating, right?

How bout you answer my simple questions.

30 cent overnight jumps and $4 gas is stable to you?

If you sucked at your job maintaining a facility you expect to be rewarded with higher wages?
 

Meghan54

Lifer
Oct 18, 2009
11,684
5,222
136
How bout you answer my simple questions.

30 cent overnight jumps and $4 gas is stable to you?

If you sucked at your job maintaining a facility you expect to be rewarded with higher wages?


Answer my question without the rhetoric, please. You post what you want done in your sig, so what's the answer?

But, of course, I don't expect any answer from you, just more of the sky is falling rhetoric and dancing around without speaking to what you spout.

And that is typical from you.


Answer my question without BS from you. (But I've got money on you never answering it.....)

And in case you've conveniently forgotten or ignored it, this is what I've asked:

But I have a question......when you say this: "...they should be forced to lower the price", exactly how would you accomplish that? Nationalize all the gas and oil companies in the U.S., something like Venezuela did? Or put price controls on gas and oil prices within the U.S., which completely ignores the world price of gas and oil?

What is your solution? You demand prices get dropped for gasoline, yet I don't see a solution proposed. Outside of government intervention and control of that industry, I don't see how the oil industry will be forced to do a darned thing. And that's what you're advocating, right?


And I'm going to keep asking it, over and over until you post your perceived solution to your gas price must be decreased demand.
 
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Meghan54

Lifer
Oct 18, 2009
11,684
5,222
136
How bout you answer my simple questions.

30 cent overnight jumps and $4 gas is stable to you?

If you sucked at your job maintaining a facility you expect to be rewarded with higher wages?


What $4 gas? Oh, you mean the CA gas prices or HI prices? Taxes and transport/tourism "tax" costs, primarily. Average gas price over the last 3 years, as pointed out in the chart which you blithely ignored, is $3.50 or so, not $4.

I hate the jumps, so get the speculation out of gas pricing/trading. But otherwise, what to do about it? Sudden spikes Seem to only happen when a "crisis" abroad is occurring, thankfully, so it's not commonplace. And the article you linked to about the .26 national average price increase over the last 6 weeks, or .05 per week, is mostly linked to ethanol price increases, as per the article. Kinda sucks, but what are you going to do about it...which goes right back to my original question......what do you propose to be done? But you won't answer that.....instead you'll continue to spout drivel.

And about facility maintenance and incompetence, which you seem to rail about incessantly, I guess it's oil company incompetence when a tug runs into a tanker? OK...maybe in your world.

You rail against refineries having leaks and not doing maintenance (your self-titled incompetence again), yet you flail around when refineries are taken off-line for scheduled maintenance in attempts to prevent such occurrences.....seems the companies are damned if they do and damned if they don't in your eyes.

So, are you spending as much time railing against other industry segments for their perceived incompetence and prices? Going on a crusade anytime soon about milk prices? Surely the milk industry is equally as incompetent as the oil industry. I've seen their tanker trucks in accidents, cattle meandering on roads.

Or maybe your next crusade should be about the pharmaceutical industry. Drugs that are ineffective, cause bad side effects, etc. But that sort of crusade would make too much sense for you.

You've had the "Drive for 5" up for years and in the last 10 years, when has gas hit $5/gal? Never? True, the nat'l average got to $4/gal once, 6-7 years ago just before the crash of 2008, but hasn't returned since. But you're predicting it will this year, just like you predicted it would last year and the year before and the year before.....and on and on, ad nauseam.




So, about your sig: "...they should be forced to lower the price..."

HOW DO WE FORCE THE OIL COMPANIES TO DROP GAS PRICES LIKE YOU STATE YOU WANT DONE?
 

Londo_Jowo

Lifer
Jan 31, 2010
17,303
158
106
londojowo.hypermart.net
What do you expect from someone who has absolutely no clue how to operate much less maintain equipment used in refineries? Specially equipment that runs 85% to 95% loading 24 hours a day for months on end. Try doing that with a car and see how low it lasts.
 

Meghan54

Lifer
Oct 18, 2009
11,684
5,222
136
What do you expect from someone who has absolutely no clue how to operate much less maintain equipment used in refineries? Specially equipment that runs 85% to 95% loading 24 hours a day for months on end. Try doing that with a car and see how low it lasts.

Didn't you see one of his little digs when he posted an article that said U.S. refineries were running at only 87% capacity and how that was a sure sign of oil company incompetence and if the refineries weren't incompetent, they'd surely be operating at 100% capacity?
 

Londo_Jowo

Lifer
Jan 31, 2010
17,303
158
106
londojowo.hypermart.net
Didn't you see one of his little digs when he posted an article that said U.S. refineries were running at only 87% capacity and how that was a sure sign of oil company incompetence and if the refineries weren't incompetent, they'd surely be operating at 100% capacity?

Yes, I saw his dig. He can think what he wants but the fact he has no clue I don't put any stock in his ignorant views on the subject.

What he doesn't understand is they don't run at 100% as it gives them no room to compensate for changing conditions of crude oil, cracking gas, catalyst, or ambient temperatures.
 

dmcowen674

No Lifer
Oct 13, 1999
54,889
47
91
www.alienbabeltech.com
Latest daily Refinery workers incompetence:

3-2-2014

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/epa-oil-spill-affected-half-221218584.html

EPA: Oil spill affected half-mile of Lake Michigan



Crews for oil giant BP are working to clean up an undetermined amount of crude oil that spilled into Lake Michigan and affected a half-mile-long section of northwestern Indiana shoreline.


The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency says the spill reported Monday afternoon at BP's Whiting, Ind., refinery appears to have been contained.

EPA regional on-scene coordinator Mike Beslow said Tuesday afternoon that BP crews have surrounded the oil with absorbent booms and are using vacuum trucks to suck up the corralled oil.
He says BP crews are also cleaning up oil along about 2,700 feet of private shoreline at the Whiting complex some 20 miles southeast of downtown Chicago.


Beslow says the Coast Guard is working with BP to determine how much crude an oil processing malfunction discharged into the lake.
 
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