2014 Gasoline Price Forecast

[dmcowen674]

Fluctuate is their new word today for fucking Americans over

3-25-2014

http://wallstcheatsheet.com/busines...ate-if-canadian-bottleneck-eases.html/?ref=YF

U.S. Gas Prices May Fluctuate if Canadian Bottleneck Eases




Canadian oil producers may get a better price for crude in the overseas markets because of the glut of oil in the North American market. That in turn could reshape the U.S. price market for retail gasoline, AAA said Monday.

AAA spokesman Michael Green told Oilprice there’s a bottleneck building up for Canadian crude because of the general increase in North American oil production.


“Canadian producers may find higher prices selling crude oil to places like China or Europe than to refineries in the central United States,” he said.


The National Energy Board, Canada’s independent regulator, announced in early March it approved a request from Enbridge to reverse the flow of oil through its Line 9 pipeline system. The project involves shifting the pipeline’s direction to the East Coast and increasing its volume from 240,000 barrels per day to 300,000 bpd.

Currently, nearly all of Canada’s oil heads to the United States.
AAA’s Green said once all the Canadian pipeline additions enter into service, it could reshape the gasoline map for U.S. retail consumers. With lower imports of Canadian oil into the U.S. refinery market, the price of West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark, could increase, which would mean slightly higher gasoline prices for central U.S. consumers, where it’s currently the cheapest.

 

[Meghan54]

Hey Dave,

Since you're obviously back here and must have missed my question, since you didn't answer it when you posted your most recent article 3 minutes ago, I'll ask again.

I have a question......when you say this: "...they should be forced to lower the price", exactly how would you accomplish that? Nationalize all the gas and oil companies in the U.S., something like Venezuela did? Or put price controls on gas and oil prices within the U.S., which completely ignores the world price of gas and oil?

What is your solution? You demand prices get dropped for gasoline, yet I don't see a solution proposed. Outside of government intervention and control of that industry, I don't see how the oil industry will be forced to do a darned thing. And that's what you're advocating, right?

 

[Wreckem]

Gas went down here the past few days.

In a place where gas is usually cheaper, usually much cheaper than national average, it has been going up. Currently right at national average which is strange.

$3.50 for regular. $3.80 for premium. Its been above $3.35/$3.65 for three weeks now. It was rubberbanding back and forth between $3.35/$3.65 and $3.05/$3.35 for the two months before but its stopped going back down all the way to $3.05. Its now rubber banding between $3.35/$3.65 and $3.50/$3.80.

 

[Pr0d1gy]

Let it go man, this thread would have been relevant before 9/11...when gas was still around $1 a gallon. You missed the boat by about 12-13 years there buddy.

 

[dmcowen674]

3-27-2014

http://www.orlandosentinel.com/business/os-spring-gas-prices-20140326,0,3022757.story

Gas prices rise as weather, driving season heats up



Bad news, springtime drivers: Gasoline prices have been on the upswing since mid-February, reaching their highest levels locally in more than a year.


Fueled by harsh winter weather and transportation issues, ethanol is in short supply in the Southeast — just one of several hiccups giving Florida gas stations a headache during a month when locals, tourists and snowbirds combine to create strong demand at the pumps.

In Orlando, the average price Wednesday for a gallon of regular unleaded gasoline jumped 7 cents overnight to $3.59, compared with $3.57 a gallon a year ago.

In addition to the delivery issues with ethanol, Florida experienced another gas-related problem in March: A bad batch of jet fuel was delivered to Tampa International Airport, Brockwell said. That meant fuel-transport trucks were busy trying to resupply the airport and avert a crisis there. GasBuddy.com also notes unconfirmed reports of a few cargoes of gasoline being delayed due to fog in the Gulf of Mexico.

An oil spill that closed the Houston Ship Channel this past weekend is actually lowering domestic gas prices because it prevented gas companies from exporting product abroad, according to Brockwell.

Parts of Florida could soon see a change in environmental rules that may result in cheaper gas. Certain cities — including Miami, Tampa and Jacksonville — have been required to sell a stricter blend of summer gasoline. The Environmental Protection Agency is proposing easing those restrictions, saying it could do so while still maintaining air quality. That could mean cheaper summer gasoline in those places.

 

[Meghan54]

Hey Dave,

Since you've obviously zipped in and out to post your new "damning" article and must have missed my question, I'll ask again.

I have a question......when you say this: "...they should be forced to lower the price", exactly how would you accomplish that? Nationalize all the gas and oil companies in the U.S., something like Venezuela did? Or put price controls on gas and oil prices within the U.S., which completely ignores the world price of gas and oil?

What is your solution? You demand prices get dropped for gasoline, yet I don't see a solution proposed. Outside of government intervention and control of that industry, I don't see how the oil industry will be forced to do a darned thing. And that's what you're advocating, right?

 

[dmcowen674]

Of course more oil spilled than they originally let on:

3-27-2014

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/bp-raises-estimate-lake-michigan-214756709.html


BP raises estimate of Lake Michigan oil spill



BP says its crews have recovered "the vast majority" of oil visible along the shoreline.


The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency says EPA and U.S. Coast Guard staffers oversaw cleanup work at the spill site again Thursday, but bad weather prevented them from deploying boats into the lake.


BP reported the spill Monday.

 

[dmcowen674]

Between oil still climbing well beyond $100 despite swimming in crude and Ethanol prices climbing through the roof get ready to bend over babies.

Plus they are purposely slowing down Ethanol Production. Of course they say it is maintenance. Yeah sure. See my sig - maintenance my ass.

and I get to laugh as usual at the experts and fools that said gas won't spike ridiculously this year:


http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000261790&__source=yahoo|headline|quote|video|&par=yahoo

Energy expert: Why oil prices will rise

Thu 27 Mar 14 | 01:12 PM ET Stephen Schork of the Schork Report explains why WTI crude oil is due to rise.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-...lon-for-first-time-since-2011.html?cmpid=yhoo

Ethanol Rises Above $3 a Gallon for First Time Since 2011



Ethanol futures rose above $3 for the first time since 2011 amid demand from refineries and blenders before U.S. gasoline use rises with warmer weather.


Distillers are facing delays transporting the ethanol they produce to markets after winter storms slowed deliveries and competition for rail cars forced ethanol plants to slow production.



A 2007 U.S. law requires the biofuel, mostly made from corn, to be blended into gasoline, so higher ethanol costs can boost prices at the pump.



Inventories last week were down 10 percent from a year earlier, according to government data.


“We’re moving into the driving season, and refineries want more ethanol than they’re able to get,” Chris Wilson, an analyst at Atten Babler Risk Management LLC in Galena, Illinois, said in a telephone interview. “Also, logistics continue to be a big component.”

Ethanol production slipped to 885,000 barrels a day last week from 944,000 in the first week of December, according to Energy Information Administration data.

Demand is rising as distillers prepare to shut down for maintenance.

Flint Hills Resources LLC, which owns and operates oil refineries and ethanol plants in the U.S., plans to close its Iowa Falls, Iowa, ethanol plant from March 31 through April 11, its website shows.

Plymouth Energy LLC will shut down its Merrill, Iowa, plant on April 1 and April 2 and possibly April 3, according to its website.

 

[Meghan54]

Hey Dave,

Since you've obviously zipped in and out to post your new "damning" article and must have missed my question, I'll ask again.

I have a question......when you say this: "...they should be forced to lower the price", exactly how would you accomplish that? Nationalize all the gas and oil companies in the U.S., something like Venezuela did? Or put price controls on gas and oil prices within the U.S., which completely ignores the world price of gas and oil?

What is your solution? You demand prices get dropped for gasoline, yet I don't see a solution proposed. Outside of government intervention and control of that industry, I don't see how the oil industry will be forced to do a darned thing. And that's what you're advocating, right?

 

[OverVolt]

I dunno probably $3.60 average.

We won't see $4+ gas being the norm until 2018 or so. and $5+ gas in 2024 or so I think is my guesstimate.

If there was another rip higher in price like in '08 where it was way above the norm of ~$2.70 to $4.00 then it crashed down to $1.55. Remember it like it was yesterday. Would be no different today. If it rose to $5 it'd crash to $2.

12-28-2013 dodedodeododo not rocket science.

I got 2018 and 2024 prices by extrapolating from the current trendline. The trend could change, yea, but something would spark that to happen.

 

[dmcowen674]

My laugh at the fools on here grows louder.

Now you have them saying oil will hit $200

You know what that will mean at the pump

Dave is always right

4-2-2014

http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout/why-crude-could-gush-over--150-192338627.html

Why crude could gush over $150



Colorful CME trader Tres Knippa thinks crude is a raging buy at $100.


“There’s been tension in the Middle East since the earth cooled,” Knippa observes in the attached clip, “so I’m kind of counting on that to continue.” As for the much vaunted glut of WTI in the U.S., Knippa sees little evidence of any such thing exists in the pits. “The glut is simply not there and whoever’s models are anticipating that I’d have to disagree with them.”


If the above freaks you out you’re better off not hearing Knippa’s price targets. He says crude could be approaching $125 or $130 without any outside help. A little uptick in the Middle East would bring $150 into play and the previously unthinkable $200 level is a possibility if the world really comes unhinged.

 

[Meghan54]

Hey Dave,

Since you've obviously zipped in and out to post your new "damning" article and must have missed my question, I'll ask again.

I have a question......when you say this: "...they should be forced to lower the price" (although I've noticed you've "edited" your sig to not include this statement any longer---guess that was easier than answering how, but the question remains valid since it's your belief), exactly how would you accomplish that? Nationalize all the gas and oil companies in the U.S., something like Venezuela did? Or put price controls on gas and oil prices within the U.S., which completely ignores the world price of gas and oil?

What is your solution? You demand prices get dropped for gasoline, yet I don't see a solution proposed. Outside of government intervention and control of that industry, I don't see how the oil industry will be forced to do a darned thing. And that's what you're advocating, right?

 

[CLite]

Restrict oil exports, drive oil and refined product prices up.

No wonder you agree with restricting oil exports, it's the only way you see the $5/gal or greater prices you want so badly.

Whether or not you agree with the policy it's a fact that restricting oil exports lowers the oil prices and to a lesser extent the refined product prices.

Refiners have enjoyed record spreads on locally sourced US crude because of the export restriction. Now there are arguments that such a depressed price will prevent further exploration in the US, however it's clear that even at the record spreads producers still love pumping oil and selling it at a discount.

Of course it's not free market, so if you want to make an argument that free market is better that's fine. However, restricting exports will certainly not drive prices up within the USA (maybe slight increase worldwide).

 

[desy]

I can agree you can manipulate the local market to some extent but there are always trade-offs as you've pointed out.
I don't see what's wrong with letting oil run closer to its actual costs, Its price isn't prohibitive now and even if it does rise 'expected' our societies will have to adjust to persistently higher prices sooner or later.

 

[Londo_Jowo]

Whether or not you agree with the policy it's a fact that restricting oil exports lowers the oil prices and to a lesser extent the refined product prices.

Refiners have enjoyed record spreads on locally sourced US crude because of the export restriction. Now there are arguments that such a depressed price will prevent further exploration in the US, however it's clear that even at the record spreads producers still love pumping oil and selling it at a discount.

Of course it's not free market, so if you want to make an argument that free market is better that's fine. However, restricting exports will certainly not drive prices up within the USA (maybe slight increase worldwide).

That's your opinion, I will leave you with the opinion of people who work more closely with the business.

Study: Gasoline prices will fall if US exports crude

 

[CLite]

I can agree you can manipulate the local market to some extent but there are always trade-offs as you've pointed out.
I don't see what's wrong with letting oil run closer to its actual costs, Its price isn't prohibitive now and even if it does rise 'expected' our societies will have to adjust to persistently higher prices sooner or later.

Well I think the analogy is do you want us to export lumber or cabinets? Ore or steel? etc.

It's probably healthier for the US economy to be more focused on refined product exports. However, there is obvious hypocrisy in bitching about China rare earth metals or OPEC controlling crude exports and us turning around and doing the same thing.

Personally I say leave crude oil export ban in place and allow NG export since it's such an expensive proposition that it won't significantly inflate local prices. The world is used to the USA not exporting crude so let's leave it that way. Ultimately the biggest effect is probably mega profits for local refineries but at least they are local.

 

[CLite]

That's your opinion, I will leave you with the opinion of people who work more closely with the business.

Study: Gasoline prices will fall if US exports crude

Buddy, there is a reason Valero is lobbying to prevent crude oil export and it's not because crude oil exports will lower the price of local crude.

It's not opinion, just look at the WTI spreads, it's simple facts.

I agree that gasoline prices are not significantly helped by the crude oil ban, however your statement that crude price will drop locally is categorically false as evidenced by every single spread chart in existence.

 

[Londo_Jowo]

Of course Valero is in favor of keeping the ban in place.

http://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Lifting-the-Oil-Export-Ban-Where-the-Refiners-Stand.html

Valero Energy Corp. (VLO) buys cheap oil in the US and sells gasoline and diesel to Europe, Latin America and West Africa. Valero is fearful that its profits would take a hit because lifting the crude export ban would potentially raise oil prices at home and in turn push prices up at the gas pump, leading to refinery closures that have only just recouped from earlier high oil import prices.

 

[CLite]

Of course Valero is in favor of keeping the ban in place.

http://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Lifting-the-Oil-Export-Ban-Where-the-Refiners-Stand.html

The only reason I responded to your post was you said "Restrict oil exports, drive oil and refined product price up". I responded linking the WTI spread to show oil prices are not driven up by export restrictions. You said that was my opinion, I said it was facts and then you link an article that states local oil prices at home will rise with a ban lift.

I think we are in agreement?

 

[desy]

I'd rather not export a commodity of which our society is wholly dependant upon and is non-renewable such as natural gas.
I actually don't have a problem with oil as it imported already anyway refined and shipped back out again helping refiners margins and yes raising the price of gasoline as we now compete in a world market. Importing 7mbpd of oil per day at $100 is $700,000,000 everyday flowing out of the country just on raw product. It is a significant trade deficit taking those $ out of the economy

 

[CLite]

I'd rather not export a commodity of which our society is wholly dependant upon and is non-renewable such as natural gas.
I actually don't have a problem with oil as it imported already anyway refined and shipped back out again helping refiners margins and yes raising the price of gasoline as we now compete in a world market. Importing 7mbpd of oil per day at $100 is $700,000,000 everyday flowing out of the country just on raw product. It is a significant trade deficit taking those $ out of the economy

The problem is US refiners were on their last legs before the revolution in domestic production due to competition in India/China which don't have any regulations or other restrictions ala Ethanol.

If domestic oil is exported and there is no change in what is required of local refiners then many will close shop. Many of the refineries were slanted towards the unprofitable side prior to the WTI spread plunging to the negative side.

At the end of the day this is all politicking about who gets the profit from domestic production, the end consumer will see a very negligible net effect at the pump. I'm just concerned about a mass shutdown of refineries just so drilling becomes more attractive/profitable as compared to the current situation which has healthy growth in both production & refining.

 

[Londo_Jowo]

The only reason I responded to your post was you said "Restrict oil exports, drive oil and refined product price up". I responded linking the WTI spread to show oil prices are not driven up by export restrictions. You said that was my opinion, I said it was facts and then you link an article that states local oil prices at home will rise with a ban lift.

I think we are in agreement?

No and neither are the API (earlier article) or other refiners in support of lifting the ban.

 

[CLite]

No and neither are the API (earlier article) or other refiners in support of lifting the ban.

The API article you linked agrees with me and so do the facts.

If exports were allowed, “the increase in domestic crude prices is much larger than the reduction in world crude oil prices, and so the average cost of crude to U.S. refineries goes up more than do refined product prices,” the study said. “This is the major reason why refinery margins decline.”

It's completely baffling to me that you look at negative WTI-Brent Spreads and think the export ban is doing anything but suppressing local crude prices.

So again I repeat are we in agreement that lifting the ban will raise local crude prices?

 

[dmcowen674]

Originally Posted by Londo_Jowo
That's your opinion, I will leave you with the opinion of people who work more closely with the business.

Study: Gasoline prices will fall if US exports crude

Buddy, there is a reason Valero is lobbying to prevent crude oil export and it's not because crude oil exports will lower the price of local crude.

It's not opinion, just look at the WTI spreads, it's simple facts.

I agree that gasoline prices are not significantly helped by the crude oil ban, however your statement that crude price will drop locally is categorically false as evidenced by every single spread chart in existence.

Clite, don't bother arguing with him.

He has a personal vested interest in spewing bullshit because he works directly in the Oil Thug Industry.

 

[Londo_Jowo]

The company for whom I work stands to sell a lot of equipment from the new low sulfur requirements for gasoline like it did when these requirements were imposed on diesel.

Company equipment sales and service should increase over the next few years as well per this article.

API Predicts Massive Oil Industry Spending Spree

http://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/API-Predicts-Massive-Oil-Industry-Spending-Spree.html

Energy companies will spend close to $1 trillion on oil and gas infrastructure and storage over the next decade, to support more than 900,000 US jobs as the US becomes the global leader in oil production capacity growth, according to a new report from the American Petroleum Institute (API).