2014 Gasoline Price Forecast

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dmcowen674

No Lifer
Oct 13, 1999
54,889
47
91
www.alienbabeltech.com
Remember a year is 365 days and seasons occur every year.

You would think these people know this by now but apparently not:

11-24-2014

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-refineries-returning-maintenance-affect-130041092.html

Why refineries returning from maintenance affect crude oil prices



Refinery maintenance
Refiners schedule maintenance for September and October as they transition to winter-grade fuel from summer-grade fuels. US refineries enter planned seasonal maintenance from September to October as the federal government requires different mixtures in the summer and winter to minimize environmental damage.


As refineries demanded less crude and while crude production grew, crude inventories increased, which pressures WTI crude prices downwards.


However, now that refineries have started increasing their demand for crude inputs, crude oil inventories should typically start seeing some draws. Draws in crude inventories are bullish for crude prices.
 

Londo_Jowo

Lifer
Jan 31, 2010
17,303
158
106
londojowo.hypermart.net
Most people with more than one brain cell has already figured out how refinery maintenance/shift gasoline blends would affect both oil usage/supplies when the refineries are down for maintenance and when they come back online.
 

realibrad

Lifer
Oct 18, 2013
12,337
898
126
Remember a year is 365 days and seasons occur every year.

You would think these people know this by now but apparently not:

11-24-2014

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-refineries-returning-maintenance-affect-130041092.html

Why refineries returning from maintenance affect crude oil prices



Refinery maintenance
Refiners schedule maintenance for September and October as they transition to winter-grade fuel from summer-grade fuels. US refineries enter planned seasonal maintenance from September to October as the federal government requires different mixtures in the summer and winter to minimize environmental damage.


As refineries demanded less crude and while crude production grew, crude inventories increased, which pressures WTI crude prices downwards.


However, now that refineries have started increasing their demand for crude inputs, crude oil inventories should typically start seeing some draws. Draws in crude inventories are bullish for crude prices.

Wait...

Price of Gas went down, because the supply of crude went up. The supply of crude went up, because refineries stopped refining and thus making more Gas.

So Gas prices go down, when supply of Gas goes down, but supply of crude goes up?

How does that work?
 

DucatiMonster696

Diamond Member
Aug 13, 2009
4,269
1
71
As I stated before this is all because the Saudis fear losing relevancy and markets due to high oil prices. They've made it clear in their Opec meeting now that they want to hurt US shale producers to retain market share and foreign policy relevancy for US policy makers. Thus the worst thing that the Saudis can imagine is to suddenly find themselves no longer in a position where they are seen as vital to US interests. However they are now caught in a trap. As soon as the price of oil starts to climb those shale oil deposits will be tapped into because the technology is here and it is only going to get better. Nevermind the "Green" technology that has developed as a result of a market environment that had to deal with high oil prices. None of the aforementioned is going away and it is only going to improve over time. They are just stalling the inevitable.

Saudi sights set on US shale at crucial OPEC meeting

http://news.yahoo.com/saudi-sights-set-us-shale-crucial-opec-meeting-030251315.html
 
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Atreus21

Lifer
Aug 21, 2007
12,001
571
126
As I stated before this is all because the Saudis fear losing relevancy and markets due to high oil prices. They've made it clear in their Opec meeting now that they want to hurt US shale producers to retain market share and foreign policy relevancy for US policy makers. Thus the worst thing that the Saudis can imagine is to suddenly find themselves no longer in position where they are seen vital to US interests. However they are now caught in a trap. As soon as the price of oil starts to climb those shale oil deposits will be tapped into because the technology is here and it is only going to get better. Nevermind the "Green" technology that has developed as a result of market environment of high oil prices. None of the aforementioned is going away and it is only going to improve over time. They are just stalling the inevitable.

Saudi sights set on US shale at crucial OPEC meeting

http://news.yahoo.com/saudi-sights-set-us-shale-crucial-opec-meeting-030251315.html

I so hope you are correct. Nothing makes me happier than taking the screws to OPEC.
 

dmcowen674

No Lifer
Oct 13, 1999
54,889
47
91
www.alienbabeltech.com
Gas prices will skyrocket and they are already using the Polar Vortex as an excuse.

Like it's never been cold out before.

11-26-2014

http://www.thestreet.com/story/1296...-stall-production.html?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO

Will Polar Vortex Push Gas Prices Higher or Even Stall Production?



It's nearly Thanksgiving, yet parts of the U.S. have already experienced deep-freeze temperatures more typical of the heart of winter. That raises some very big questions in an already volatile energy market.



Natural gas freeze-offs -- the crystallization of water that comes out of the ground at the wellhead along with the gas -- can block upstream gas flow across a much wider geographic footprint during freezing temperatures than any hurricane could.

And a lot of wellheads are not made to withstand freeze-offs. That can lead to outright delays of planned natural gas production output when temperatures fall below freezing in producing fields.

Consider this: in the winter of 2011, freeze-offs took over 7 billion cubic feet per day of natural gas offline. That was more than the supply disruption taken offline during Hurricane Dennis (6.1 Bcf/d) and just under lost output seen during Hurricanes Gustav and Ike (9.5 Bcf/d).


For reference, over 12.2 Bcf/d of natural gas supply was disrupted during Hurricanes Katrina and Rita, according to the EIA.
 

alkemyst

No Lifer
Feb 13, 2001
83,769
19
81
Says the guy with 54k posts and nothing better to do. Gas prices don't affect me much, try getting a real job.

Dude fix your broken coffee link. I am sure you have way more posts outside of AT than Dave.

I was called out by a member once and he had half the time and twice the posts I did across all forums.
 
May 13, 2009
12,333
612
126
Must be some super cold temps to freeze saltwater (saltwater has a lower freezing point) that also is being warmed due to friction as it comes out of the earth. North Dakota must suck.

And this is moving saltwater we are talking about. Not just sitting still in the wellhead.
 
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dmcowen674

No Lifer
Oct 13, 1999
54,889
47
91
www.alienbabeltech.com
11-26-2014

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/saudi-arabia-could-spoil-christmas-170500632.html

How Saudi Arabia Could Spoil Christmas



On Thanksgiving morning, when millions of Americans rise bright and early to start preparing their turkey dinners and draw up their post-meal shopping strategies, Saudi Arabia, the de-facto leader of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries or OPEC, could deliver a surprise that may very well spoil the holiday shopping season for many.


It's hard to judge what the impact on oil prices would be of a production cut of this size, but a rise to test the 50-day moving average near $83 a barrel seems reasonable. That would be worth a gain of more than 12 percent from current levels. At the pump, gasoline prices, as a rough estimate, would rise by about 20 to 30 cents a gallon.


What would be the impact to Christmas shopping? The American Research Group estimates that the average consumer will spend $861 on gifts this year (up 8 percent from 2013) and that only 38 percent have already started shopping. A team of researchers at Credit Suisse led by Edward Kelly estimates that the drop in gas prices since July would add about $770 dollars per year to the wallet of a household earning $40,000 per year.


In other words, the drop in gas prices, if sustained, would nearly be enough to cover the cost of holiday shopping. A 30-cents-a-gallon rebound in gas prices, on an annual basis, would cost about $210.



If it happens, send your complaints to Ali Al-Naimi, the kingdom's Minister of Petroleum and Mineral Resources in Riyadh.
 

Meghan54

Lifer
Oct 18, 2009
11,684
5,222
136
http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/mark...utput-cut-despite-oil-price-plunge/ar-BBg0ttL

OPEC heading for no output cut despite oil price plunge

OPEC Gulf oil producers will not propose an output cut on Thursday, reducing the likelihood of joint action by OPEC to prop up prices that have sunk by a third since June and raising the prospect of a global oil price war.

"The GCC reached a consensus," Saudi Arabian Oil MinisterAli al-Naimi told reporters, referring to the Gulf Cooperation Council which includes Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. "We are very confident that OPEC will have unified position."


A Gulf OPEC delegate told Reuters the GCC had reached a consensus not to cut oil output. Three OPEC delegates separately told Reuters they believed OPEC was unlikely to cut output when the 12-member organization meets on Thursday.

OPEC's traditional price hawk Iran said on Wednesday its views were now close to those of Saudi Arabia.

"The onslaught of North American shale oil has drastically undermined OPEC's position and reduced its market share," said Dr. Gary Ross, chief executive of PIRA Energy Group.


Russia, which produces 10.5 million barrels per day (bpd) or11 percent of global oil, came to Tuesday's meeting amid hints it might agree to cut output as it suffers from oil's price fall and Western sanctions over Moscow's actions in Ukraine.


But as that meeting with Naimi and officials from Venezuela and non-OPEC member Mexico ended, Russia's most influential oil official, state firm Rosneft's head Igor Sechin, emerged with a surprise message - Russia will not reduce output even if oil falls to $60 per barrel.

"The idea of unleashing a price war against U.S. shale oil seems strange to me. I doubt you can win this battle as most U.S. oil producers are hedging a lot of their output," said atop oil executive visiting Vienna for talks with OPEC ministers.



Looks like a price war has begun. And while it may dampen U.S. production from shale in a few years, the moment it goes back up, shale's back in production and the see-saw begins again. Guess enjoy it while we can?
 

Meghan54

Lifer
Oct 18, 2009
11,684
5,222
136
I can find it for $2.39, but I don't "trust" the stations. Most are local small mom-n-pop establishments and older.

The "big boys", like Exxon, are at $2.42.

If I didn't mind driving 45 min. and using Costco, I could get it for $2.34. Absolutely not worth it.

Beginning to wonder if we'll see gas below $2.25. Didn't think it'd drop below $2.50, but that's old news now.
 
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Wreckem

Diamond Member
Sep 23, 2006
9,461
996
126
http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/mark...utput-cut-despite-oil-price-plunge/ar-BBg0ttL





Looks like a price war has begun. And while it may dampen U.S. production from shale in a few years, the moment it goes back up, shale's back in production and the see-saw begins again. Guess enjoy it while we can?

Its not going to take a few years to dampen shale production. Shale plays require constant drilling to keep oil flowing at current production levels. If oil keeps dropping, drilling will halt and Shale play production will drop off significantly from where it currently is. If the US wanted to protect our smaller oil and gas players, and the shale industry, they could allow for the exportation of our abundant supply of natural gas.
 
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