2014 Gasoline Price Forecast

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CPA

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The woman reporting on that piece does not understand the amount of money oil companies have made in the last three years (each contract is three years long), money is not the problem within the oil industry. She does not know what is being negotiated on, specifically what Shell is offering the national representatives for the oil industry and what they are asking for.

The strike is not about the amount of money they get paid per hour or their payraise this year. Read up on the USW website to see what they are mainly upset about.

It's about take home pay and union job security. Nothing else. How much Shell makes is irrelevant to the discussion. the positions are worth a certain amount. If union workers want a piece of the rest, then become stockholders.

Bloomberg

The USW has been asking employers for pay increases, stronger rules to prevent fatigue and measures to keep union workers rather than contract employees on the job, Lynne Hancock, a union spokeswoman based in Nashville, Tennessee, said by phone on Monday. It’s also negotiating for better health-care benefits because workers are “paying too much” for deductibles and premiums, she said.
 

Adrenaline

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Jun 12, 2005
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It's about take home pay and union job security. Nothing else. How much Shell makes is irrelevant to the discussion. the positions are worth a certain amount. If union workers want a piece of the rest, then become stockholders.

Bloomberg

The Union people working there deal with the hazards related to the job every day and some random contractor that comes there to work randomly at times does not fully understand what he is doing. When was the last time you had a contractor die on the job from not understanding what he was dealing with?

It isn't all about the money. The pay raises will come as they usually do. If you don't work in the industry, you do not understand what these people deal with on a daily basis, especially during a turnaround.

How would you feel about negotiating your health benefits and going from an 80/20 split to a 50/50 split or worse?

They want ceilings lowered on health payouts.

What is wrong with these two positions?

Some contractors seem like they just came from McDonald's. They need to staff up more people when they have nested contractors in there for more than a year.

Fatigue management came from the company side and the union is for it but it will require more staffing. See the problem?
 
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cabri

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Nov 3, 2012
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“This work stoppage is about onerous overtime; unsafe staffing levels; dangerous conditions the industry continues to ignore; the daily occurrences of fires, emissions, leaks and explosions that threaten local communities without the industry doing much about it;

These may be legit.
How much OT is being demanded and why? 1-2 hours a day or a 6 day week - they are getting good $$ for such.

the industry’s refusal to make opportunities for workers in the trade crafts; the flagrant contracting out that impacts health and safety on the job; and the erosion of our workplace, where qualified and experienced union workers are replaced by contractors when they leave or retire,” Beevers added.

These are $$ issue and contracting out is just looking for job security.
 

Adrenaline

Diamond Member
Jun 12, 2005
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These may be legit.
How much OT is being demanded and why? 1-2 hours a day or a 6 day week - they are getting good $$ for such.



These are $$ issue and contracting out is just looking for job security.

The oil industry usually works 12 hour days, three days one week and four days the next for their base schedule. Then throw in 700+ hours of OT for at least 25% of the workforce. Hourly wages are not the problem.

The companies are making more and more money, so the workers ask for an increase in the company side of healthcare payments, a lower ceiling on out of pocket expenses for healthcare and better staffing of refinery personnel.

The better staffing would be less contractors and more actual employees by the refinery. The contractors are usually in unions also. Say that the company agrees to lower contractors by a number of ten people and hire ten extra refinery personnel. The amount of difference in pay is minor, if not about equal.

The issues may cause money spent to fix, but the money is there.
 

cabri

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Nov 3, 2012
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Another Shell - Labor article

HOUSTON (Reuters) - At tense meetings just days before the first major U.S. refinery strike in 35 years was called on Sunday, union leaders grew increasingly pessimistic about getting a new labor contract and a sizable wage increase.

Leaders want the money when push come to shove.

The other is just to provide a justification for the $$$

The union is seeking annual pay raises of 6 percent, double the size of those in the last agreement. It also wants work that has been given in the past to non-union contractors to start going to USW members, a tighter policy to prevent workplace fatigue, and reductions in members' out-of-pocket payments for healthcare.

3 of the 4 is related to $$$ for members and/or the union itself.


From the union's standpoint, Shell has always been the most flexible of the oil companies, much easier to negotiate with than Exxon Mobil Corp or Marathon Petroleum Corp .

In fact, the USW enjoys the right to pick which company will head up negotiations and specifically chose Shell this year for its perceived flexibility. Shell forged deals with the union in 2006, 2009 and 2012.


This time, there were new faces on the negotiating team from Shell, and a 50 percent slide in oil prices since June cast a shadow over the talks as companies slashed spending.
 

Adrenaline

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Jun 12, 2005
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Another Shell - Labor article



Leaders want the money when push come to shove.

The other is just to provide a justification for the $$$



3 of the 4 is related to $$$ for members and/or the union itself.

The union did not think it would get a 6% raise. When you are negotiating you ask high and settle lower. They usually settle around 3%.

Giving work to USW members at refineries is better than nested contractors. Hire more permanent employees. This is better for the oil company and better for safety as some contractors sent there have no idea what they are doing. Contractors are in unions as well. I see little difference between a USW union person and a pipe fitter union person. They can hire a nested contractor, one that has been there for years, and send him/her through all of the safety training and job training to help benefit him/her and the people around them.

Healthcare costs come up during contract negotiation. It is 80/20 with some places having a high out of pocket expense.

Oil prices have gone down yet they still make a ton of money. Oil prices have not gone down due Republicans or Democrats but mainly due to Bakken Crude. I believe we get more crude from within the US than ever before. If we don't have to import it, there is a huge savings on cost.

Heck, gas prices have gone down so much and government knows people can and will pay more so some states are talking about raising the gas tax. Let that one sink in.
 
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cabri

Diamond Member
Nov 3, 2012
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Dave must be giddy - but this may burst his bubble

Link - Four reasons why any oil rallies won't last



  1. Investors are too excited about the rig count decline and are misinterpreting what it actually means. Producers are getting rid of the least-productive rigs, and the best performing ones will probably keep working for a while.
  2. March will be a turning point for oil fundamentals. Morgan Stanley notes that there's already bearish data for oil. While the market largely focused on and reacted to the rig counts on Friday, a Reuters survey showed that OPEC increased production in January. OPEC's refusal to cut production amid booming US shale oil has been a major contributor to the slump in oil prices. On Friday, we also got worse-than-expected GDP data for Q4 out of the US.
  3. Any rally now is a bearish signal for the second half of the year and the medium term. Energy companies have been reducing their capex as oil prices fell, and this has balanced the market. An increase in oil prices will cause more imbalance. A former BP CEO had highlighted that low oil prices force oil producers to use their resources more efficiently.
  4. Because spot prices are currently higher than futures prices, any oil price rally will prompt producers to hedge (i.e., sell). This will delay any potential cuts to US production.

He refuses to look at/accept underlying causes for trends
 

cabri

Diamond Member
Nov 3, 2012
3,616
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Dave is simply incapable of understanding the underlying causes and exercises hypocrisy with his "views."

I think he is capable of doing such - it is the fact that he must reject such because it is a challenge to them.

Not much different than a religious activist :thumbsdown:
 

CPA

Elite Member
Nov 19, 2001
30,322
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The Union people working there deal with the hazards related to the job every day and some random contractor that comes there to work randomly at times does not fully understand what he is doing. When was the last time you had a contractor die on the job from not understanding what he was dealing with?

It isn't all about the money. The pay raises will come as they usually do. If you don't work in the industry, you do not understand what these people deal with on a daily basis, especially during a turnaround.

How would you feel about negotiating your health benefits and going from an 80/20 split to a 50/50 split or worse?

They want ceilings lowered on health payouts.

What is wrong with these two positions?

Some contractors seem like they just came from McDonald's. They need to staff up more people when they have nested contractors in there for more than a year.

Fatigue management came from the company side and the union is for it but it will require more staffing. See the problem?

I don't argue that there is anything wrong with the position of trying to increase your pay. We all do it. But I do have a problem with striking to get your point across. Because that doesn't just affect the company, it also affects the consumer. I have and always will believe that no one owes you a job. If you don't like your current position, go somewhere else.

Your argument about contractors is factitious. New employees would suffer the same issues. Being union doesn't mean you are free from accidents or you don't die on the job. It's a non-issue in this argument.
 

dmcowen674

No Lifer
Oct 13, 1999
54,889
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www.alienbabeltech.com
Oil jumped $5 yesterday

Gas jumped another 20 cents overnight, now running in $2.38 to $2.49 range on NW side.

Only early February and jumping fast.

How high will they go this year?

The Oil Thugs are calling for $200 oil that should translate to at least $8 to $10 gas.

The resident Oil Thug supporters on here have to be filled with angst at the most informed Anti-Oil Analyst on the planet, me.

2-3-2015


OPEC sees oil prices exploding to $200 a barrel



http://www.usatoday.com/story/money...il-prices-exploding-to-200-a-barrel/22800331/


OPEC's Secretary-General Abdulla al-Badri sees a real possibility that oil prices could explode higher to upwards of $200 per barrel in the future.

He's far from the only one that sees a return of triple-digit oil prices.

OPEC's plan pushed for lower oil prices so it could control market share once oil prices surged in the future.

It's willing to endure short-term pain for the potential of a big long-term gain.
 

Adrenaline

Diamond Member
Jun 12, 2005
5,320
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I don't argue that there is anything wrong with the position of trying to increase your pay. We all do it. But I do have a problem with striking to get your point across. Because that doesn't just affect the company, it also affects the consumer. I have and always will believe that no one owes you a job. If you don't like your current position, go somewhere else.

Your argument about contractors is factitious. New employees would suffer the same issues. Being union doesn't mean you are free from accidents or you don't die on the job. It's a non-issue in this argument.

The contract is up and the company refused to negotiate. When you have no contract, one of three things happens:

1. Strike (When the labor is trying to negotiate and the company is not negotiating)
2. Lockout (When the company is trying to negotiate and the labor is not negotiating)
3. Continue work with no contract (While a resolution is being worked out through both parties negotiating)

We have number 1 in this case. Nobody owes a job to the employees this is affecting. We have a strike because the company is not willing to negotiate on anything right now. That is why the USW called in a federal mediator. All you are seeing is the national level of negotiating. Each union contract has local issues that get resolved as well. I have not met anyone that talked about hating their job. It is the opposite as people tend to enjoy what they do.

Being Union is irrelevant as USW people and most contractors belong to a union. New employees do not suffer the same lack of training as contractors. New employees go through a lot of training with the unit they work in along with a lot of safety training before they are allowed to work by their self. This is the key to the contractor part. The contractors do not get this training for the sites they go to. Some of the contractors do not even know what they are looking at, nor do they understand the dangers of stuff they are working on. Even after going through safety regulations for a job some contractors will still do what they want. They get caught, sent off the site (where they go right into another refinery and do the same crap), and then the company sends another person in that does the same crap the previous person did.

These sites deserve less contractors and better qualified workers to do the job right. The contractors are usually maintenance people. There are some really good contractors and then there are some that just don't grasp the reality of the situation around them. The workers for the refinery go through so much unit and safety training that the contractors are not even close to what they do.
 
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dmcowen674

No Lifer
Oct 13, 1999
54,889
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91
www.alienbabeltech.com
Some of the contractors do not even know what they are looking at, nor do they understand the dangers of stuff they are working on.

Even after going through safety regulations for a job some contractors will still do what they want. They get caught, sent off the site (where they go right into another refinery and do the same crap), and then the company sends another person in that does the same crap the previous person did.

What? Incompetence? That can't be according to the Oil Thug supporters in here.
 

Adrenaline

Diamond Member
Jun 12, 2005
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2-3-2015

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-firm-two-day-rally-015856817.html

Oil jumps as dollar plunges, up nearly 20 percent in four days



Oil prices rose on Tuesday, headed for the biggest four-day advance since January 2009


U.S. oil drilling rigs, measured by oil services firm Baker Hughes, had fallen their most in a week in nearly 30 years.

Oil is going to go even higher as places have stopped drilling due to the drop in oil prices. Some oil fields have started to cut back personnel.
 

cabri

Diamond Member
Nov 3, 2012
3,616
1
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Oil jumped $5 yesterday

Gas jumped another 20 cents overnight, now running in $2.38 to $2.49 range on NW side.

Only early February and jumping fast.

How high will they go this year?

The Oil Thugs are calling for $200 oil that should translate to at least $8 to $10 gas.

The resident Oil Thug supporters on here have to be filled with angst at the most informed Anti-Oil Analyst on the planet, me.

2-3-2015


OPEC sees oil prices exploding to $200 a barrel



http://www.usatoday.com/story/money...il-prices-exploding-to-200-a-barrel/22800331/

Production facilities are being temporarily closed up due to lower prices.
Once the prices clear that threshold (50-60), those wells will re-pump and there will be another sinusoidal cycle of price drops.

Oil is going to go even higher as places have stopped drilling due to the drop in oil prices. Some oil fields have started to cut back personnel.

The $75-$100 is not sustainable with present supplies, political climate and tecnology and the $200 is a pipe dream swallowed by people like Dave
 
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Adrenaline

Diamond Member
Jun 12, 2005
5,320
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Production facilities are being temporarily closed up due to lower prices.
Once the prices clear that threshold (50-60), those wells will re-pump and there will be another sinusoidal cycle of price drops.

Oil is going to go even higher as places have stopped drilling due to the drop in oil prices. Some oil fields have started to cut back personnel.[/QUO

The $75-$100 is not sustainable with present supplies, political climate and tecnology and the $200 is a pipe dream swallowed by people like Dave
Oil will go higher than it is now. I don't see it hitting $100 a barrel though. That $200 number is so far out there.
 

Ns1

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Jun 17, 2001
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CPA

Elite Member
Nov 19, 2001
30,322
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The contract is up and the company refused to negotiate. When you have no contract, one of three things happens:

1. Strike (When the labor is trying to negotiate and the company is not negotiating)
2. Lockout (When the company is trying to negotiate and the labor is not negotiating)
3. Continue work with no contract (While a resolution is being worked out through both parties negotiating)

We have number 1 in this case. Nobody owes a job to the employees this is affecting. We have a strike because the company is not willing to negotiate on anything right now. That is why the USW called in a federal mediator. All you are seeing is the national level of negotiating. Each union contract has local issues that get resolved as well. I have not met anyone that talked about hating their job. It is the opposite as people tend to enjoy what they do.

Being Union is irrelevant as USW people and most contractors belong to a union. New employees do not suffer the same lack of training as contractors. New employees go through a lot of training with the unit they work in along with a lot of safety training before they are allowed to work by their self. This is the key to the contractor part. The contractors do not get this training for the sites they go to. Some of the contractors do not even know what they are looking at, nor do they understand the dangers of stuff they are working on. Even after going through safety regulations for a job some contractors will still do what they want. They get caught, sent off the site (where they go right into another refinery and do the same crap), and then the company sends another person in that does the same crap the previous person did.

These sites deserve less contractors and better qualified workers to do the job right. The contractors are usually maintenance people. There are some really good contractors and then there are some that just don't grasp the reality of the situation around them. The workers for the refinery go through so much unit and safety training that the contractors are not even close to what they do.
Shell offered five offers. 5! Don't tell me they refused to negotiate.
 

cabri

Diamond Member
Nov 3, 2012
3,616
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Shell offered five offers. 5! Don't tell me they refused to negotiate.

Unions will claim that the previous offers are unreasonable - so there is no negotiation needed.

And by Shell provide newer offers, they have now encouraged the union to reject anything, expecting that a better will show up.
 

Adrenaline

Diamond Member
Jun 12, 2005
5,320
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Shell offered five offers. 5! Don't tell me they refused to negotiate.

You seem to think five offers is a lot. Five offers that were pathetic and insulting. The Union had offers and counter offers. Shell did not come to the table half the time for the last few days. Shell is not bargaining in good faith.

Do you work for Shell or one of the other companies Shell is representing? Are you informed of what is actually being discussed at the table? You seem to have a distaste for Unions and are not a fan of how they work. Unions have their good sides and bad sides. I am for Unions.
 

cabri

Diamond Member
Nov 3, 2012
3,616
1
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You seem to think five offers is a lot. Five offers that were pathetic and insulting. The Union had offers and counter offers. Shell did not come to the table half the time for the last few days. Shell is not bargaining in good faith.

Do you work for Shell or one of the other companies Shell is representing? Are you informed of what is actually being discussed at the table? You seem to have a distaste for Unions and are not a fan of how they work. Unions have their good sides and bad sides. I am for Unions.

Let you and the unions present the offers made by both sides and an evaluation can be made.

Trying to shut a business down becomes blackmail.
 

Adrenaline

Diamond Member
Jun 12, 2005
5,320
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Let you and the unions present the offers made by both sides and an evaluation can be made.

Trying to shut a business down becomes blackmail.

There is no contract right now. While there is a legally binding contract it should be in the contract language that striking is illegal. USW is calling the shots for their unions right now as Shell is not negotiating in good faith. USW tried to get a federal mediator into the discussions and Shell did not even reply.

The Union is wanting to negotiate and Shell is playing extreme hardball. The Union walked away from the table and went on strike. Just because Shell has five proposals doesn't mean they amount to anything.

I don't want to misquote proposals, so you will have to find those. You have seen some. There isn't much the USW negotiates.
 

cabri

Diamond Member
Nov 3, 2012
3,616
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There is no contract right now. While there is a legally binding contract it should be in the contract language that striking is illegal. USW is calling the shots for their unions right now as Shell is not negotiating in good faith. USW tried to get a federal mediator into the discussions and Shell did not even reply.

The Union is wanting to negotiate and Shell is playing extreme hardball. The Union walked away from the table and went on strike. Just because Shell has five proposals doesn't mean they amount to anything.

I don't want to misquote proposals, so you will have to find those. You have seen some. There isn't much the USW negotiates.

Even the USW web site does not have the proposals available for review.

If you can point out where the actual proposals are being published, it would help.

Everything in the media searches, just have Text tweets and/or PR releases
 
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