Clemson will likely be at #3 or #4 CFP this week, with that super ugly 5-point win against South Carolina, while Ohio State should at least be #6 with that impressive The Game win and Baylor and ND losses.
After the CCG week, one of Iowa or MSU (currently #4 and #5 CFP) will lose one more time and won't get a spot at CFP, so if Clemson or Alabama lost their CCG (or if, for the love of Lord Chaos, both happen) I don't see why Ohio State won't be a shoe in for the last spot at CFP.
Let's pay close attention to the officiating at the ACC and SEC championship games to see if someone might want to make sure that this scenario won't happen
The final four should be
Alabama
Clemson
Oklahoma
MSU/Iowa
I'd be shocked if Alabama loses to Florida or Clemson loses to UNC. Very unlikely.
Well Iowa is still undefeated, that's why I don't know how the CFP Committee would handle an Iowa loss to MSU, which would kind of put them on the same footing as OSU in that regard. OSU had a stronger schedule (however minimally more challenging it was, there were more ranked opponents) so I guess you could point to that... if Iowa wins, it should be an easy decision to put OSU above MSU.
Here's to rooting for an upset in the ACC or SEC. :twisted:
I'm pretty sure that the loser of B1G CCG will be ranked below Ohio State in the final CFP ranking. I don't have any solid reasons, just strong feeling.
Who would get into the top 4 in the event Alabama loses to Florida?
Florida gets in with 2 losses or Stanford gets in with 2 losses? I'm pretty sure OU is in at this point. Clemson could always lose to UNC so would that vault a 1-loss UNC? Should be an interesting last week to see what shakes out. I just don't think there will be two teams from the same conference. I feel like a 1 loss OSU that didn't go to the CCG would get left out for a 2 loss conference champion.
Florida doesnt get in if they win. They just got blown out by FSU. If they beat Alabama they take the SEC out of the playoffs. ACC doesnt get in if Clemson loses, unless UNC really beats down Clemson. I dont think Stanford jumps anyone. A win over Utah at this point doesnt mean as much as it did a few weeks ago. Only way they can get into the playoff is if both Clemson and Alabama lose, because OSU will probably take precedence, unless Iowa destroys MSU. OSU will get in over a 2 loss conference champ, especially if MSU wins, and wins convincingly over Iowa.
OSU is essentially ranked 5 because MSU or Iowa will lose. Any of the other top 3 lose and I think they are a shoe in. I think the problem is Clemson was ranked 1 for too long. I dont think they are better than anyone in the top 6.
Florida doesnt get in if they win. They just got blown out by FSU. If they beat Alabama they take the SEC out of the playoffs. ACC doesnt get in if Clemson loses, unless UNC really beats down Clemson. I dont think Stanford jumps anyone. A win over Utah at this point doesnt mean as much as it did a few weeks ago. Only way they can get into the playoff is if both Clemson and Alabama lose, because OSU will probably take precedence, unless Iowa destroys MSU. OSU will get in over a 2 loss conference champ, especially if MSU wins, and wins convincingly over Iowa.
OSU is essentially ranked 5 because MSU or Iowa will lose. Any of the other top 3 lose and I think they are a shoe in. I think the problem is Clemson was ranked 1 for too long. I dont think they are better than anyone in the top 6.
I definitely don't think Clemson is better than any of the next 5 behind them, but they're undefeated in a Power 5 conference so you can't really leave them out unfortunately.
The thing I'm finding hard to see is the committee putting in two teams from the same conference. It may happen and if they go by the 4 best teams you may be talking about MSU, OSU, OU and Alabama (assuming Clemson loses). Just musing if there would be someone else that gets in. Maybe a 2 loss Stanford jumping 1 loss OSU in that scenario if they didn't want to put in two teams from the same conference. Would be interesting for sure. If everyone wins that should it won't matter though. Alabama wins and they're in, same for Clemson and the Big 10 game is winner get in. OU I'm 99.99% certain they are in with the win last night.
Yeah, but OSU is in special circumstances situation. They are defending champs, and their one loss was to a team in the top 4 by 3 points, which is the best loss of anyone in the top 6. The committee seems to be big on "eye" tests, and OSU really looks like they should be in. If non of the top 4 loses they most likely wont jump anyone.
Stanford is a solid team, but I dont think anyone really wants to see them in the playoff like they would OSU. I would even think a 1 loss Stanford team would still be on the outside looking in compared to the other teams in the top 6. 1 loss Oregon or USC would be different. Clemson hasn't been as good as Stanford over the last decade or so, but for some reason people treat them Clemson like they are an SEC school. This playoff is in part designed for ratings. Otherwise all big 5 conf champs + top 3 teams would get in so strength of conference could be factored in.
I bet they considered a playoff system with quarterfinals (top 8), but the issue that would introduce is the semi-final winners will have played 3 extra post-season games. Which, for college football, is a lot.
I think we should do it, and perhaps drop one game off everyone's regular season if it must absolutely be done.
A 4-team playoff was a big compromise to get something different from the BCS but to try and not add any significant length to a busy season for the student athletes. There really should be a week in-between every game so it would be 3 weeks of games for the CFP if you took the top 8 (Power Five winners - 3 "wild cards" that take the top 3 from the remaining teams in the FBS, that would make for a really good post-season, but of course their is controversy in the demanding schedule that creates for the student athletes... who remain uncompensated for the effort involved, and it detracts from their studies in the new semester.
I would still like that system better than the current extremely subjective 'committee' thing. For what it's worth I'd rather we still have the old BCS system than the one we have right now (and I have mentioned this before here somewhere). A set of 12 people (who definitely have agendas, no matter what) deciding on ranks however they want has never set well with me. A good compromise would be a BCS type system (human + computer polls) to determine the rank, and then send the top 4 to the playoffs.
I'm with you on the committee thing. It's all for ratings imo and because people called for something different.
I've said from the beginning that we should just keep the BCS rankings for the end of the season and the top 4 (or 8 ideally) would go to the playoff. There was never any real controversy beyond 4 teams for legitimate claim to being in the title game. Ultimately if that ends up being 2 SEC or 2 Big 10 teams than so be it.
the committee had said last year that conference title game is influential in decision making. UNC is 11-1. they would be in if they win ACC over Clemson. So really only SEC spot is at risk if Alabama does not win. I don't see that any team with a recent loss or one that did not play ccg has a chance. We saw that last year.
the committee had said last year that conference title game is influential in decision making. UNC is 11-1. they would be in if they win ACC over Clemson. So really only SEC spot is at risk if Alabama does not win. I don't see that any team with a recent loss or one that did not play ccg has a chance. We saw that last year.
2. Whatever the committee decides, a lot of it will be about $. Things like fairness or whether a team 'deserve' to be in over another will be number x in their priorities. A big part of the committee's decision will be whichever match-ups that bring the most fans and entertainment value. They'll invent some reasoning to rank the top 4 if they need to. Whatever it is they said last year (or even earlier this year) to be an important determining value, wouldn't matter much.