2016 Electoral Map Prediction

[88keys]

As of right now the race has tightened, however it is not because Hillary has (significantly) dropped in the polls, but rather because Trump has gained. What this means is that the independent voters are buckling toward the major parties. Trump did poorly in October and so the conservative leaning independents have moved in favor of Trump. The liberal leaning independent will undoubtedly move toward Clinton in response to this.
There is alot of chatter and uncertainty with this election and undoubtedly most analysts are predicting something much closer.
At the end of the day Trump is the populist candidate in this election, but his appeal is limited and he struggles to hold the party together (more so than his adversary). He has alienated Hispanics and women which is going to end up costing him the state of Florida and the election along with it. In the aftermath, the discussion is always where the loser went wrong and the focal point of that discussion will be (ironically) he campaign announcement speech.
Then there are the silent voters which are notoriously difficult to gauge in terms of how they will effect the election. However one thing that is certain is that Trump's supporters are anything but silent. In addition to this Trump also represents (massive) uncertainty while Clinton as the incumbent party represents stability and things have to be pretty bad for the electorate to choose the former. Based on these things I would expect that the silent voters mostly side with Clinton and will result in a comfortable victory both in terms of the popular vote and the electoral college.
I'd be very surprised if Trump doesn't take Ohio at this point, but there may be other electoral surprises. New Hampshire has alot of undecideds of whom I expect will back Clinton in the end, so the states I'd be watching are Florida, North Carolina, Iowa, and Georgia. Florida because it's Florida, and the latter three because they will be very close.

Unless we have a 'November' surprise shake things up at the last minute which is looking less and less likely ( at this point it would take something really really bad for either candidate to make a difference) my predictions are as follows.

Popular Vote:
Clinton - 51%
Trump - 47%

Electoral Vote:
Clinton - 323
Trump - 215

Closes States:
Clinton - North Carolina
Trump - Iowa

Final Electoral College Map 11/6/2016:

 

[88keys]

ORIGINAL POST:

UPDATE 10/12/2016:
Things are looking worse for Trump that even I could have imagined. In all likelihood, the locker room video is just one of many and the Hillary campaign has been sitting on this stuff for awhile. I predict that there will be audio or video released of Trump using a racial slur and that slur will most likely be the one old angry white guys use to refer to black people.
Paul Ryan's withdraw of support is a big deal as he is the the leader of the party for he holds the highest office in the country. Paul Ryan wants to run for president someday and the bottom line is that any Republican who wants to have a career after 2016 will likely follow suit if they want to survive the coming Trump fallout.
I'm not sure if Trump has hit rock bottom yet. He's gone into loose cannon mode and he knows he can't win the election so he is going to win for losing and her leads at this time could have her winning Georgia. It is even possible that Gary Johnson's high numbers in Alaska could give the state to the dems. If things continue this course; I'd start keeping an eye on Texas as it's not as red of a state as many people think it is. And finally, if she starts pulling double digit leads in the polling average, we could be looking at a landslide.


Original post
old map - http://i.imgur.com/I7rZDzj.png

This election year will make Hillary the first Democrat since JFK to win the election while losing Ohio. In addition to this, she will also be the first Democratic president to succeed a 2 term Democratic presidency Since Martin Van Buren succeeded Andrew Jackson (Irony?) in by election since 1836 and this will also mark the first time we've had more than two consecutive Democratic terms since FDR.

I've decided to call Ohio for Trump. He has maintained his lead despite is poor performance in the debate so I feel that the people there have made their choice and plan to stick with it. Aside from this, the first debate was Trump's last chance to act presidential and articulate real solutions. Doing this he could have solidified his gains in September, but have generally made up their minds at the point in the election cycle as the polls tend not to shift significantly at this point. A strong third party choice could have thrown the election into a spin, but neither Johnson nor Stein seem to be doing that, so I forsee many of their supporters shifting to the GOP or DNC candidate which generally means slightly more votes for Hillary because the third parties seem to be effecting her poll numbers more so than Trump's.

The states I would be watching at this point are New Mexico, North Carolina, and Florida. Gary Johnson is showing his strongest numbers in New Mexico (home state) which I think will result in a Trump win there, but there is a not too far fetched scenario with Johnson winning the states resulting in an electoral tie. The race will be the tightest in North Carolina, but Florida and it's 29 electoral votes is the most likely of all to swing an election. Trump needed Latino support to win this state, but he has failed to do that so I am calling that for Hillary.

It looks like October will be a bad month for Trump overall as it seems that the Hillary campaign strategically waited until this time to start airing out his dirty laundry. There is plenty more to come. I don't forsee a Trump victory in the next two debates. He is clearly out of his element here and his best option was to lose gracefully but he can't do that. He can't not be Donald Trump.
As for Hillary, probably more scandals, but I feel like it would need to be something huge (Benghazi/emails, really?) for anything to stick at this point. People have spent the last several years hearing about Hillary scandals and it's to the point where most people just don't care anymore. The same goes for Trump's mouth. Another Hillary scandal would have about as much effect on the polls at this point as if Donald Trump called Oprah Winfrey the 'N' word in a twitter rant.

 

[compuwiz1]

Pretty much, but I think you're wrong on FL, WI and CO. I also think AZ and NM could flip.
Not that I care because either way, we get one of these two, whom I don't want. I'm just resigned to the fact that one of them is going to be the next POTUS, unless something crazy happens.

 

[cbrunny]

 

[SNC]

This election year will make Hillary the first Democrat since JFK to win the election while losing Ohio. In addition to this, she will also be the first Democratic president to succeed a 2 term Democratic presidency Since Martin Van Buren succeeded Andrew Jackson (Irony?) in by election since 1836 and this will also mark the first time we've had more than two consecutive Democratic terms since FDR.

I've decided to call Ohio for Trump. He has maintained his lead despite is poor performance in the debate so I feel that the people there have made their choice and plan to stick with it. Aside from this, the first debate was Trump's last chance to act presidential and articulate real solutions. Doing this he could have solidified his gains in September, but have generally made up their minds at the point in the election cycle as the polls tend not to shift significantly at this point. A strong third party choice could have thrown the election into a spin, but neither Johnson nor Stein seem to be doing that, so I forsee many of their supporters shifting to the GOP or DNC candidate which generally means slightly more votes for Hillary because the third parties seem to be effecting her poll numbers more so than Trump's.

The states I would be watching at this point are New Mexico, North Carolina, and Florida. Gary Johnson is showing his strongest numbers in New Mexico (home state) which I think will result in a Trump win there, but there is a not too far fetched scenario with Johnson winning the states resulting in an electoral tie. The race will be the tightest in North Carolina, but Florida and it's 29 electoral votes is the most likely of all to swing an election. Trump needed Latino support to win this state, but he has failed to do that so I am calling that for Hillary.

It looks like October will be a bad month for Trump overall as it seems that the Hillary campaign strategically waited until this time to start airing out his dirty laundry. There is plenty more to come. I don't forsee a Trump victory in the next two debates. He is clearly out of his element here and his best option was to lose gracefully but he can't do that. He can't not be Donald Trump.
As for Hillary, probably more scandals, but I feel like it would need to be something huge (Benghazi/emails, really?) for anything to stick at this point. People have spent the last several years hearing about Hillary scandals and it's to the point where most people just don't care anymore. The same goes for Trump's mouth. Another Hillary scandal would have about as much effect on the polls at this point as if Donald Trump called Oprah Winfrey the 'N' word in a twitter rant.

I don't see Gary in there anywhere. If he takes CO and NV, a very good possibility, the party will really get started!

 

[Fanatical Meat]

I don't see Gary in there anywhere. If he takes CO and NV, a very good possibility, the party will really get started!

Hillary would still have more than 270. I'm assuming you don't mean the libertarian party will get started after two state wins.

 

[Balt]

My map would pretty much be identical to yours, except that I think Hillary will win NM. That's not to say I have a high degree of certainty about the map turning out that way, though.

I consider Iowa, NC, and Florida to still be toss-ups. I think Iowa probably stays with Trump since Pence threw a bone to the god-fearing evangelicals last night. North Carolina needs a good turnout from Obama's supporters to go to Clinton, but I think it's quite possible. I don't trust Florida at all. Ever.

I don't see Gary in there anywhere. If he takes CO and NV, a very good possibility, the party will really get started!

Umm.. disagree.

 

[MongGrel]

We'll see I guess.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

 

[Ns1]

We'll see I guess.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

that's a really cool site.

 

[guachi]

Your New Mexico makes no sense. New Mexico is bluer than Colorado, Florida, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, Hew Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin. You have all of those states for Clinton.

Flip New Mexico and your map makes sense. Iowa, Ohio, and North Carolina are incredibly close but at least all three are redder than any state that's going for Clinton with the reddest Clinton state being Florida.

I'm surprised at how consistently Iowa has been for Trump considering Iowa has been a bluer state than average for decades excepting in 2000 when it was a mere .2% more Republican than the average margin of victory (and the state still went for Gore as Gore won the popular vote by .5%)

Aside from New Mexico the only other change I'd make is in North Carolina as I think Clinton's margin of victory nationwide will be large enough to turn North Carolina blue on the backs of enough minority voters, white transplants and swing voters.

North Carolina is basically Virginia but about 4-5% more red. Like Virginia, North Carolina has been consistently getting bluer election after election. The Democratic margin in NC compared to the national margin of victory has changed towards the Democrats in every election since 2000 with the 2000 2004 2008 2012 margins (relative to the election as a whole) being -13.4, -10.0, -6.9, -5.9. Virginia has been -8.6, -5.7, -1.0, .01. In 2012 Virginia was actually bluer than the nation as a whole.

 

[IronWing]

I think you're mostly right. I'd flip OH, NM, CO, and WY and possibly WI. Wyoming is broadly conservative but not rabidly so and not particularly partisan. WY women are very proud that their's was first stae to allow women to vote and Trump is so obnoxious towards women that I could see him losing there. Colorado is a mix if libertarian sort of liberal and hard core religious right. I can't see Hillary doing well with either group. New Mexico could easily go to Hillary if Trump has motivated the Hispanic vote. I can see Ohio going either way but I'm thinking Trump will lose it just because he is so unreliable. Wisconsin is another state I can see going for Trump simply because politics has gotten so polarized and stupid there.

 

[nickqt]

2012, with Iowa and NC flipped.

 

[sportage]

Iowa is a nut job for sure, but I still predict in the end that Iowa will go for Hillary.

And lets be real, no state is going for the third party.
Especially Colorado.
Colorado may have legalized pot, but smokers aren't that screwy.... yet.

 

[sportage]

I love it that this race is so up in the air.
Polls swing all over the place, especially after a convention or after a debate.
Hillary shows her face and her polls go up.
Trump shows his face (or tweets) and his polls go down.
That shows how confused and undecided many Americans still are.
So what it comes down to is the actual voting.
And that won't happen until November 8th.
(9th for all you republicans out there)

 

[MongGrel]

I love it that this race is so up in the air.
Polls swing all over the place, especially after a convention or after a debate.
Hillary shows her face and her polls go up.
Trump shows his face (or tweets) and his polls go down.
That shows how confused and undecided many Americans still are.
So what it comes down to is the actual voting.
And that won't happen until November 8th.
(9th for all you republicans out there)

Politics are not a fake reality show, although it seems many people think they are these days.

 

[dullard]

Polls swing all over the place, especially after a convention or after a debate.
Hillary shows her face and her polls go up.
Trump shows his face (or tweets) and his polls go down.
That shows how confused and undecided many Americans still are.

I disagree. Clinton and Trumps polling averages have been within the margin of error of typical polls for 13 straight months. That shows how DECIDED many Americans were then and still are. There are a few undecideds left, but if you look at the last few weeks both Clinton and Trump are gaining in the polls meaning those few undecideds are locking in their choices.

Sure there is a little temporary flutter in the polls (such as after each convention), but that has been extremely small that it barely registers.

 

[dullard]

I'm surprised at how consistently Iowa has been for Trump considering Iowa has been a bluer state than average for decades excepting in 2000 when it was a mere .2% more Republican than the average margin of victory (and the state still went for Gore as Gore won the popular vote by .5%)

Iowa is a fairly even split between rural and urban voters. During the great recession, crop prices were sky high, so the Iowa economy wasn't hit very badly. Conversely, crop prices are plunging and Iowa's net economy isn't recovering. Thus Iowa voters are not feeling nearly the growth in GDP and the drop in unemployment that other states have enjoyed under Obama. Sure Iowa as a whole is doing a little bit better. But today's much worse farm economy isn't going to get the rural voters to vote for Clinton.

 

[88keys]

Map has been updated.

 

[ivwshane]

Your New Mexico makes no sense. New Mexico is bluer than Colorado, Florida, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, Hew Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin. You have all of those states for Clinton.

Flip New Mexico and your map makes sense. Iowa, Ohio, and North Carolina are incredibly close but at least all three are redder than any state that's going for Clinton with the reddest Clinton state being Florida.

I'm surprised at how consistently Iowa has been for Trump considering Iowa has been a bluer state than average for decades excepting in 2000 when it was a mere .2% more Republican than the average margin of victory (and the state still went for Gore as Gore won the popular vote by .5%)

Aside from New Mexico the only other change I'd make is in North Carolina as I think Clinton's margin of victory nationwide will be large enough to turn North Carolina blue on the backs of enough minority voters, white transplants and swing voters.

North Carolina is basically Virginia but about 4-5% more red. Like Virginia, North Carolina has been consistently getting bluer election after election. The Democratic margin in NC compared to the national margin of victory has changed towards the Democrats in every election since 2000 with the 2000 2004 2008 2012 margins (relative to the election as a whole) being -13.4, -10.0, -6.9, -5.9. Virginia has been -8.6, -5.7, -1.0, .01. In 2012 Virginia was actually bluer than the nation as a whole.

That's because Iowa's demographics are mostly older and white. They have a quickly rising Latino population though but in the foreseeable future I'd expect them to go red.

 

[zinfamous]

I don't see Gary in there anywhere. If he takes CO and NV, a very good possibility, the party will really get started!

Hillary doesn't need CO or NV. she doesn't need NV. she doesn't need FL or NC. At this point, she really only needs PA, which is pretty much a lock now.

I disagree that she will win GA and while AZ looks up for grabs at the moment, I'd be surprised if it doesn't go for Trump.

 

[Ken g6]

We'll see I guess.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

If I take that forecast, and assume Hillary will get only states where she has a better than 80% chance of winning, I get this map:

I'm hoping that's the worst Hillary can do in this election.

 

[allisolm]

So what it comes down to is the actual voting.
And that won't happen until November 8th.
(9th for all you republicans out there)

Or 28th, according to Trump.

 

[senseamp]

Utah is up for... grabs
http://www.deseretnews.com/article/...-into-tie-with-Clinton-among-Utah-voters.html

 

[z1ggy]

Kind of funny, yet scary, that Trump will win SOME states, even after first person accounts of Trump making lewd sexual remarks/gestures to under age teens while they were changing. America kind of sucks.

 

[BurnItDwn]

So, Vermin Supreme not likely to win?
The vote is rigged!!!!