well, and I'll type slowly for you, you took joy in the loss of obamacare, which will mean the loss of health coverage for many, especially those with pre-existing conditions. Spin that however you like bucky, but you're just a vindictive little, wanna-be christian.Where did I wish ill on others? Considering your instability I'll take any moral outrages you have with a grain of salt.
I took it much much better than you are taking your prediction this year. You're just adorable.
I realized that most of you people just waste my time so I cut the fat from my life. I came back to see how all you guys were handling President-Elect Trump and to rub it in your faces a bit. I'll be leaving shortly, don't you worry about that.Actually you wimped out from posting at all in P&N for months. Your intellectual inadequacy must be tough, I've seen it before.
I realized that most of you people just waste my time so I cut the fat from my life.
I came back to see how all you guys were handling President-Elect Trump and to rub it in your faces a bit. I'll be leaving shortly, don't you worry about that.
I love how you make the stupid prediction and I'm the idiot. I made a stupid prediction in 2012 and learned from it. I suggest you do the same thing.Yes I know, I've met and spoken with spiteful people with intellectual inadequacies due to poor critical thinking skills. You're not the first to shut down and pretend an election never happened. Unlike you, I certainly can analyze with confidence what happened in this election, especially when more data is available. But data is foreign to you, we know.
I have no doubt you'll shitpost and run. Just remember, there will always be someone here to point out how you just aren't good enough to engage with thinking adults.
I love how you make the stupid prediction and I'm the idiot. I made a stupid prediction in 2012 and learned from it. I suggest you do the same thing.
You failed, own it.
I woke up at @2AM to the lights being on in the living room. The wife is up, the political glutton. I asked WTH she was doing. "You know," she said. "Smoking crack?" I said...it was 2AM. I didn't look at the tv or ask the #s, went back to bed and slept great. Thought she was lying to me when she broke the news while I was in the shower.Haha, yeah. I woke up at 2:30am and couldn't resist checking my phone. It still wasn't official by then, but it was almost certain. Had trouble getting back to sleep after that.
340 EC votes was stupid, you even hinted that it could go as high as 370. Those are both stupid. Silver didn't have them that high and he's apparently the data king. You went with your gut.Aw, how tragically revealing. You still think a prediction based on data and polls was "stupid"? No wonder you're so confused and intellectually hollow.
I'll take your assessment with the grain of salt it deserves. Trump has said, repeatedly, that he wants people taken care of. Being against your solution doesn't mean I'm against any solution. Obamacare isn't going to be repealed all at once.well, and I'll type slowly for you, you took joy in the loss of obamacare, which will mean the loss of health coverage for many, especially those with pre-existing conditions. Spin that however you like bucky, but you're just a vindictive little, wanna-be christian.
340 EC votes was stupid, you even hinted that it could go as high as 370. Those are both stupid. Silver didn't have them that high and he's apparently the data king. You went with your gut.
well, and I'll type slowly for you, you took joy in the loss of obamacare, which will mean the loss of health coverage for many, especially those with pre-existing conditions. Spin that however you like bucky, but you're just a vindictive little, wanna-be christian.
To think Hillary had even a chance at the same coalition of voters Obama did is ridiculous. A 300 EC result wouldn't have been a stupid prediction. You also know that his probabilities are crap, right? You should have known something was up but you didn't.Huh? I know you're prolly shitposting, but 538's model predicted she'd get about 302 electoral votes and gave her a 35% chance of getting 340 electoral votes. Silver frequently wrote about the near 3-pt miss in Obama's favor in 2012, meaning that another miss like that with the same Obama coalition would give her roughly 340+ electoral votes. This ain't rocket science.
Read up, kid:
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features...rump-a-better-chance-than-almost-anyone-else/
Amazing level of condescension from a man who was so wrong about this election.
You were wrong, own it and shut your hole.
To think Hillary had even a chance at the same coalition of voters Obama did is ridiculous. A 300 EC result wouldn't have been a stupid prediction. You also know that his probabilities are crap, right? You should have known something was up but you didn't.
To think Hillary had even a chance at the same coalition of voters Obama did is ridiculous. A 300 EC result wouldn't have been a stupid prediction. You also know that his probabilities are crap, right? You should have known something was up but you didn't.
You can't even gloat without getting anything right.
Sad!
Praise God?Silver said that if 1 in 100 voters in PA, WI and MI had gone Hillary instead of Trump she would president now. Not sure there is any way to poll accurately for that narrow of a margin.
Don't be a pedantic *whatever*. His values he gives for probabilities are crap. They simply cannot be correct."his probabilities are crap"? lol, you dummy. Do you know what probability is? It's a concept, it's a thing. No one owns "a probability."
I see you've gone off on some wild goose chase that had nothing to do with what I said. I was talking about the probabilities he gives to each state for either candidate. His model did just about as good as you could expect given the faulty data that was being put into it. That isn't his fault. All I was saying is his probability VALUES (because you're being an idiot) aren't correct.If you were paying attention or knew anything about his model, you'd know that a mere 1 or 2 point difference in error in most of those states would have wildly swung the results in a different direction (the direction that actually happened). He talked about this endlessly. He talked about how that 2 point swing was actually narrower than then 3-4 point swing that happened in the final Obama/Romney count (giving Obama an even larger win than expected).
You have no idea what I'm talking about.You have no idea what you are buckshatting about.
I leave the forum because I have better things to do with my life other than talking to a bunch of atheist liberal idiots all day and all night. Fear has nothing to do with my activity here. I'll tell you this again when you bring this baseless charge up again, as I've already done so twice.You run away and hide for 3 months because you're too scared of mean internet people and only return to gloat because you have no stones of your own. You can't even gloat without getting anything right.
I read that, pretty close election. There are probably liberals out there upset with themselves for not getting out to vote since she already had it "in the bag". Another reason why the certainty people had of this outcome were way out of proportion to the data.Silver said that if 1 in 100 voters in PA, WI and MI had gone Hillary instead of Trump she would president now. Not sure there is any way to poll accurately for that narrow of a margin.
Read my reply a couple of posts up. Although I didn't say numbers and probabilities are crap.Haha wut. I know you're trolling, but tell me professor, why are numbers and probabilities crap?
I respect him more after this election than 2012. The polls were kind of all over the place and he recognized the uncertainty. Although I don't think his probability figures are worth anything.Nate gave more of a chance to Donald than a lot of other people whose job it is to predict election results, to be fair. In fact, he was attacked from the media and the left for daring to say that Donald had a 30+% chance of becoming president.
And when attacked on that basis, he clearly laid out why he thought a Trump presidency was possible. If you read his remarks, which suggest that any error in the polling would probably apply to more than one state, you'll realize that he wasn't as wrong as everyone thinks.