2016 Electoral Map Prediction

[senseamp]

Hillary takes lead on LA Times/USC, which is the outlier poll majorly favoring Trump.

 

[Balt]

The flooding in North Carolina may keep North Carolina in the red this time around. They do have early voting, at least, which might help people still cast their vote even if they've been displaced.

 

[senseamp]

The flooding in North Carolina may keep North Carolina in the red this time around. They do have early voting, at least, which might help people still cast their vote even if they've been displaced.

Why, is the flooding more in Democrat areas?

 

[Balt]

Why, is the flooding more in Democrat areas?

Lower-income areas appear to have been affected more. I can't say for certain that most of them are Democrats, though.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nati...efb218-8feb-11e6-9c85-ac42097b8cc0_story.html

 

[88keys]

Bump for final prediction

 

[88keys]

Intrestingly enough my prediction matches with the one made by Larry Sabato

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/our-final-2016-picks/

 

[trenchfoot]

Another "close race" when truthfully interpreted amounts to another "close ratings race" among the networks.

Poor 'ol McCain and Romney got tagged and bagged by what the ratings wars among the networks had among themselves. A close race is always better for ratings than a predicted blowout and those two bit into what their hearts desired, only to have them ripped out of their chests by the facts of the matter.

Looks like the networks are at it again.

 

[vi edit]

Intrestingly enough my prediction matches with the one made by Larry Sabato

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/our-final-2016-picks/

That's mostly how I see with the exception of Florida going red to shuffle those 29 votes over to Trump. I'm absolutely indifferent either way on Florida. I think she's got enough run up in the Blue Wall to keep her from needing it. And NC for that matter. I don't see Ohio going her way.

Trump 245
Hillary 292 (Minus one from that hard core afterberner in Washington doing a protest vote of his electorate against Hillary).

 

[Sheik Yerbouti]

hillary seems to be bouncing back on RCP and 538, both sites showing her to getting wider lead over drumpf. holy fucksnacks I hope so.

 

[Homerboy]

hillary seems to be bouncing back on RCP and 538, both sites showing her to getting wider lead over drumpf. holy fucksnacks I hope so.

Umm.... a little offtopic, but what's a "fucksnack"? And are they "holey" or "holy"?
Asking for friend...

 

[JoLLyRoGer]

If I take that forecast, and assume Hillary will get only states where she has a better than 80% chance of winning, I get this map:

I'm hoping that's the worst Hillary can do in this election.

Your same model applied to Trump.

 

[Sheik Yerbouti]

Umm.... a little offtopic, but what's a "fucksnack"? And are they "holey" or "holy"?
Asking for friend...

a slightly more emphatic http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=Holy Shit Snacks

 

[alien42]

one day before the election and all three of 538s models match with the exception of Maine, which is an electoral oddball.

they also show Hillary with 297 and Trump with 240 EC votes (not sure why the discrepency)

 

[First]

Somewhere between Obama's 2012 win and his 2008 win. So about 340 electoral votes and a 4-5pt margin of victory. I think there's a decent shot there's a 2-3 pt polling miss in her favor, which would make her win 6-8 pts nationally and her electoral college win share closer to 370, putting IA and AZ in the bank for her. But I'll just stay with my former prediction for now.

 

[Ken g6]

Your same model applied to Trump.

Nice idea. The problem I'm having with my model is that, even if I drop to 75%, New Hampshire now falls below that, giving Trump the potential for a narrow 270-268 win.

 

[Atreus21]

How it turned out, or almost certainly will given MI and NH vote tallies. I still can't believe Wisconsin went red.

 

[buckshot24]

hillary seems to be bouncing back on RCP and 538, both sites showing her to getting wider lead over drumpf. holy fucksnacks I hope so.

Nope

 

[buckshot24]

Somewhere between Obama's 2012 win and his 2008 win. So about 340 electoral votes and a 4-5pt margin of victory. I think there's a decent shot there's a 2-3 pt polling miss in her favor, which would make her win 6-8 pts nationally and her electoral college win share closer to 370, putting IA and AZ in the bank for her. But I'll just stay with my former prediction for now.

What a horrible prediction.

 

[Atreus21]

What a horrible prediction.

C'mon take it easy. No one could possibly have predicted this result.

 

[buckshot24]

C'mon take it easy. No one could possibly have predicted this result.

First deserves worse than this after 2012 and him bringing up my bad prediction for 4 years.

 

[shady28]

C'mon take it easy. No one could possibly have predicted this result.

Except that lots did.

IBD/TIPP, which has been the most accurate poll in the last *4* elections, completely nailed this one.

Scott Adams nailed it, and he tells you how Trump did it too.

And here's a bone for you leftys... Micheal Moore nailed it.

 

[buckshot24]

Plenty of people predicted this outcome.

 

[First]

First deserves worse than this after 2012 and him bringing up my bad prediction for 4 years.

Nah I don't, I just followed the polls and data that showed easy victory in 2012 while you followed your, erm, gut or something and cited obscure conspiracy sites. I'm not nearly that deluded to think I can outsmart math, and given the razor sharp margin Trump won by and the fact HRC will win the popular vote by between 500K-1M when the remaining 30% of CA prescints report, it ain't like this was a tough call or a normal electoral college win for Trump, as this will be just the 4th time in history the electoral college winner will lose the popular vote. http://www.latimes.com/nation/la-na-pol-electoral-college-20161110-story,amp.html?client=safari

 

[First]

Plenty of people predicted this outcome.

Oh no doubt there were lots of Trump kids who parroted their predetermined outcome while failing to justify it with data, sort of like a kid in algebra who copies the answer without showing their work.

 

[buckshot24]

Oh no doubt there were lots of Trump kids who parroted their predetermined outcome while failing to justify it with data, sort of like a kid in algebra who copies the answer without showing their work.

Your prediction was stupid even with the skewed polls.