2018 Midterm Election Results

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senseamp

Lifer
Feb 5, 2006
35,787
6,195
126
Sinema now up 1.5% over McSally in AZ. General consensus seem to be this is all but over.
Arizona is probably a goner for GOP. Hordes of California liberals are moving there every year, and only going to accelerate now that GOP hosed Californians with SALT deductions.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
84,825
49,526
136
Arizona is probably a goner for GOP. Hordes of California liberals are moving there every year, and only going to accelerate now that GOP hosed Californians with SALT deductions.

It is kind of funny how liberal states’ shitty housing policy might help liberals take over the country.
 

Jhhnn

IN MEMORIAM
Nov 11, 1999
62,365
14,681
136
That's wrong. No Doug Jones. Now look at what was available to potentially pick up. I don't buy that Comey cost her that much. Solid R Senate. Then Democrats would have gotten annihilated in 2018 with a 58-60 Republican Senate, and possibly a Convention of the States due to Republicans controlling the vast majority of the states.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_elections,_2016

States where the margin of victory was between 1% and 5%:
  1. Pennsylvania, 1.43%
  2. Missouri, 2.79%
  3. Wisconsin, 3.36%

Pure projection & Gish galloping. You were going on about the SCOTUS until it was made clear you weren't thinking straight & now dodge to Doug Jones while asserting unknowable "truths" about 2018. Your remark about Comey is immaterial.

As for the states & margins you listed, so what?
 

Maxima1

Diamond Member
Jan 15, 2013
3,522
759
146
Pure projection & Gish galloping. You were going on about the SCOTUS until it was made clear you weren't thinking straight & now dodge to Doug Jones while asserting unknowable "truths" about 2018. Your remark about Comey is immaterial.

As for the states & margins you listed, so what?

What are you talking about? She wouldn't have gotten 50-50 or better in the Senate, so no picks. A 58-60 Republican Senate in 2018 probably would mean she would never capture it even if given two terms, but she likely would have been blown to pieces in 2020 anyway.
 

Jhhnn

IN MEMORIAM
Nov 11, 1999
62,365
14,681
136
What are you talking about? She wouldn't have gotten 50-50 or better in the Senate, so no picks. A 58-60 Republican Senate in 2018 probably would mean she would never capture it even if given two terms, but she likely would have been blown to pieces in 2020 anyway.

So, you're claiming that McConnell would have left Scalia's vacancy open for another 4 years? That the GOP would have won bigly in 2018 & Hillary would have lost in 2020 because, what? Because you're Nostrodamus?
 
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Maxima1

Diamond Member
Jan 15, 2013
3,522
759
146
So, you're claiming that McConnell would have left Scalia's vacancy open for another 4 years?

Even the so-called "moderates" were signaling they wouldn't give her a choice. Why wouldn't he? He doesn't protect Mueller. He doesn't investigate an obviously compromised and corrupt president. He didn't even give Obama the choice despite Hillary leading the polls all the way up to election day. And so on.

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/clinton-wins-gop-say-no-9-supreme-court

If Clinton wins, more in GOP say no to full Supreme Court

https://www.npr.org/2016/10/17/4983...l-block-all-court-nominations-if-clinton-wins

Sen. McCain Says Republicans Will Block All Court Nominations If Clinton Wins

That the GOP would have won bigly in 2018 & Hillary would have lost in 2020 because, what? Because you're Nostrodamus?

Despite all the crap the past 2 years, Democrats only have a +~7 point margin in these midterms. Had Hillary been elected, Democrats would have been utterly destroyed as the party winning the presidency historically does poorly in the subsequent midterms. It would have been an uphill battle from there to win the Senate at any point. People would have blamed the Democrats for not being able to accomplish much, and Chaffetz had years worth of material to throw at her.

 
Reactions: Bitek

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
46,885
34,849
136
It is kind of funny how liberal states’ shitty housing policy might help liberals take over the country.

An unexpected political benefit to be sure.

I have relatives in AZ who snowbird but are back for a couple weeks right now. They think that McSally will be appointed to McCain's seat when Kyl steps down. That is of course after I explained the increasing remoteness of McSally pulling this contest out. This was followed by the verbatim regurgitation of Fox News bullshit about illegals voting.

Looking forward to whoever challenges McSally in 2020 beating the shit out of her for losing an election but getting appointed anyway.
 

Jhhnn

IN MEMORIAM
Nov 11, 1999
62,365
14,681
136
Even the so-called "moderates" were signaling they wouldn't give her a choice. Why wouldn't he? He doesn't protect Mueller. He doesn't investigate an obviously compromised and corrupt president. He didn't even give Obama the choice despite Hillary leading the polls all the way up to election day. And so on.

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/clinton-wins-gop-say-no-9-supreme-court

If Clinton wins, more in GOP say no to full Supreme Court

https://www.npr.org/2016/10/17/4983...l-block-all-court-nominations-if-clinton-wins

Sen. McCain Says Republicans Will Block All Court Nominations If Clinton Wins



Despite all the crap the past 2 years, Democrats only have a +~7 point margin in these midterms. Had Hillary been elected, Democrats would have been utterly destroyed as the party winning the presidency historically does poorly in the subsequent midterms. It would have been an uphill battle from there to win the Senate at any point. People would have blamed the Democrats for not being able to accomplish much, and Chaffetz had years worth of material to throw at her.

McCain was never majority leader. He used the term "we" rather loosely, didn't he? McConnell already cornered himself when he put out the "let the people decide" routine.

It's all really immaterial to the subject at hand. None of it happened. Meanwhile Trump is tearing down the institutions of govt & our standing in the world community. He's tearing down common decency & mutual respect. The GOP is looting the Treasury on behalf of people who are already insanely wealthy & packing the SCOTUS to suit themselves for the next 20 years. Had Hillary won, none of that would be happening.
 

zinfamous

No Lifer
Jul 12, 2006
110,820
29,571
146
GOP looks on track to lose 6 seats in CA, including all of Orange County. Bye Comrade Dana.

Final Dem House gain probably close to 40 seats.

I like how Donald's "big Republican win!" seems to get "bigger" every day....
 
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zinfamous

No Lifer
Jul 12, 2006
110,820
29,571
146
Hey, my ex turned me on to real western NC BBQ and Cheerwine at the same time (her mom was from Salsbury). It's hard to separate the 2.

damn, your ex hurt your soul: only eastern NC BBQ is real BBQ. Western NC is basically pig + ketchup (gross BBQ sauce--no one needs that stuff.)

...I mean, I get why people like it, but might as well just eat Tennessee BBQ or that yellow crap down in SC.

But it makes sense--I think Cheerwine is from the Charlotte area, which is Western NC (and might as well be SC). They have to drink that stuff because they have already ruined their pork.
 
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Maxima1

Diamond Member
Jan 15, 2013
3,522
759
146
McCain was never majority leader. He used the term "we" rather loosely, didn't he?

McSame had more conviction on this than his SC filibuster decision.

http://time.com/4725626/john-mccain-nuclear-option-supreme-court-senate/

“After 200 years — at least 100 years — of this tradition where the Senate has functioned pretty well, they think it would be a good idea to blow it up,” McCain told reporters Tuesday in remarks reported by NBC News.


“Idiot — no, whoever said that is a stupid idiot,” McCain added.


McConnell already cornered himself when he put out the "let the people decide" routine.

You think he would feel shame over that? McConnell has plenty of inconsistent statements. The only thing that matters to him is what benefits him and the GOP.

It's all really immaterial to the subject at hand. None of it happened. Meanwhile Trump is tearing down the institutions of govt & our standing in the world community. He's tearing down common decency & mutual respect. The GOP is looting the Treasury on behalf of people who are already insanely wealthy & packing the SCOTUS to suit themselves for the next 20 years. Had Hillary won, none of that would be happening.

Again, I find it strange that you don't find it disturbing how undemocratic the US is. You can keep making excuses why it may not have turned out that way, but that's how it is Jhhnn.
 

Jhhnn

IN MEMORIAM
Nov 11, 1999
62,365
14,681
136
McSame had more conviction on this than his SC filibuster decision.

So what? He'd need 40 more votes & he's not the Majority leader. McConnell is. Your whole schtick is conjecture based on something that didn't happen.

Dems have made some serious progress in the midterms. We'll likely make more gains in 2020. In the meanwhile, a Dem HOR will stymie Trump & the GOP in many ways. It's a good start.
 

Maxima1

Diamond Member
Jan 15, 2013
3,522
759
146
So what? He'd need 40 more votes & he's not the Majority leader. McConnell is. Your whole schtick is conjecture based on something that didn't happen.

Jhhnn, McSame promised it. Considering all the bullshit that the turtle has pulled, it's not strange to think he would have kept it open. It wouldn't be unconstitutional, nor any more subversive than them flirting with autocracy ever since the con man took the reins.What's two more years over one?

Dems have made some serious progress in the midterms. We'll likely make more gains in 2020. In the meanwhile, a Dem HOR will stymie Trump & the GOP in many ways. It's a good start.

Which I remind you is why it was better for the Hildabeast to lose. Shee-it, we would probably be looking at a Convention of the States....

Also, if Hillary Clinton had narrowly won WI/MI/PA instead of narrowly lost them, Republicans would probably wind up with ~57-60 Senate seats next year instead of the ~49-53 they'll probably end up with now. That has big long-term implications for SCOTUS picks. -- Nate Silver
 

uclaLabrat

Diamond Member
Aug 2, 2007
5,578
2,913
136
damn, your ex hurt your soul: only eastern NC BBQ is real BBQ. Western NC is basically pig + ketchup (gross BBQ sauce--no one needs that stuff.)

...I mean, I get why people like it, but might as well just eat Tennessee BBQ or that yellow crap down in SC.

But it makes sense--I think Cheerwine is from the Charlotte area, which is Western NC (and might as well be SC). They have to drink that stuff because they have already ruined their pork.
Maurice's or GTFO
 

Jhhnn

IN MEMORIAM
Nov 11, 1999
62,365
14,681
136
Jhhnn, McSame promised it. Considering all the bullshit that the turtle has pulled, it's not strange to think he would have kept it open. It wouldn't be unconstitutional, nor any more subversive than them flirting with autocracy ever since the con man took the reins.What's two more years over one?

McCain couldn't promise anything other than his own vote. It would be 4 more years had Hillary won, not 2.

Which I remind you is why it was better for the Hildabeast to lose. Shee-it, we would probably be looking at a Convention of the States....

Also, if Hillary Clinton had narrowly won WI/MI/PA instead of narrowly lost them, Republicans would probably wind up with ~57-60 Senate seats next year instead of the ~49-53 they'll probably end up with now. That has big long-term implications for SCOTUS picks. -- Nate Silver

In the meanwhile, The GOP has stacked the court to their undeniable advantage. They've also pounded as many of their own kind onto the federal bench as fast as they can. None of that would have happened had Hillary won. A lot of other really ugly things wouldn't have happened, either.

Dunno why Nate goes on about how many GOP Senators there are for court nominations when McConnell has shown us he only needs 51...
 

Maxima1

Diamond Member
Jan 15, 2013
3,522
759
146
McCain couldn't promise anything other than his own vote. It would be 4 more years had Hillary won, not 2.

It would only take two years from 2016 to solidify a significant GOP majority in the Senate. The turtle could just laugh at anyone entertaining a liberal justice at that point. We're just going in circles, so I'll just end here.

In the meanwhile, The GOP has stacked the court to their undeniable advantage. They've also pounded as many of their own kind onto the federal bench as fast as they can. None of that would have happened had Hillary won. A lot of other really ugly things wouldn't have happened, either.

They've also given us a lot of cover to make major changes. It depends on a feisty Democrat to carry them out. We now have a serial perjurer and probable sex offender on the court. We have a justice who stole Garland's seat. We have another unpopular vote president and certain felon picking lifetime justices. We have a complicit GOP running interference for the fascist con man. Enough is enough.

Dunno why Nate goes on about how many GOP Senators there are for court nominations when McConnell has shown us he only needs 51...

Because it's difficult to get even a simple majority in the Senate if you're the Democratic party.
 

Jhhnn

IN MEMORIAM
Nov 11, 1999
62,365
14,681
136
It would only take two years from 2016 to solidify a significant GOP majority in the Senate. The turtle could just laugh at anyone entertaining a liberal justice at that point. We're just going in circles, so I'll just end here.



They've also given us a lot of cover to make major changes. It depends on a feisty Democrat to carry them out. We now have a serial perjurer and probable sex offender on the court. We have a justice who stole Garland's seat. We have another unpopular vote president and certain felon picking lifetime justices. We have a complicit GOP running interference for the fascist con man. Enough is enough.



Because it's difficult to get even a simple majority in the Senate if you're the Democratic party.

You're shifting the goalposts. The original reference was to the GOP denying Clinton SCOTUS appointees throughout her term of 4 years. Counting Garland, it would be 5 years. Were she to be re-elected, it would be 9 years. McConnell couldn't claim he was letting the people decide.

And, yeh, Trump did pull all that nasty shit & more precisely because they won. It hasn't been a good thing in any way.
 

senseamp

Lifer
Feb 5, 2006
35,787
6,195
126
It is kind of funny how liberal states’ shitty housing policy might help liberals take over the country.
Most of California's shitty housing policy like prop 13 and its follow ons were passed in the old Republican days, but bribed off enough people to self perpetuate. But that said, it's wonderful that young educated liberals are spreading out all over the country and flipping states like Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina, Virginia, Colorado. Hopefully Texas is next.
 

Maxima1

Diamond Member
Jan 15, 2013
3,522
759
146
You're shifting the goalposts. The original reference was to the GOP denying Clinton SCOTUS appointees throughout her term of 4 years. Counting Garland, it would be 5 years. Were she to be re-elected, it would be 9 years. McConnell couldn't claim he was letting the people decide.

Jhhnn, he obviously doesn't care about that. The point about 2018 is that it would look ridiculous at that point to entertain a liberal justice. But as I said, McConnell withholding consent for a number of years wouldn't be any more subversive than them flirting with autocracy.

And, yeh, Trump did pull all that nasty shit & more precisely because they won. It hasn't been a good thing in any way.

There has been more talk about major change. I haven't seen a good enough proposal for the Senate however. The composition of the Senate is too unreasonable and ridiculous. But Democrats could finally get rid of the legislative filibuster, which only helps Republicans. Nothing they want to pass is popular, and much on their agenda can be done either via reconciliation or judges (now simple majority!).

https://www.washingtonpost.com/poli...-closer/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.96fc8481f75d

Pack the Supreme Court? Why we may be getting closer.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...mocracy/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.511ef3b7de92

Democrats must consider court-packing when they regain power. It’s the only way to save democracy.
 

Commodus

Diamond Member
Oct 9, 2004
9,215
6,818
136
A preview of 2020 if Trump is in a tight race:

And the whinging if he loses in 2020, too -- no matter how clear the victory he'll insist he lost to voter fraud. That is, if he doesn't become a fugitive knowing there's a good chance he'll be charged and convicted the moment he's out of office.
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
46,885
34,849
136
And the whinging if he loses in 2020, too -- no matter how clear the victory he'll insist he lost to voter fraud. That is, if he doesn't become a fugitive knowing there's a good chance he'll be charged and convicted the moment he's out of office.

Trump has never taken responsibility for anything in his life, I don't expect him to start in his mid70s. He'll 100% pardon himself before he leaves office.
 

Commodus

Diamond Member
Oct 9, 2004
9,215
6,818
136
Trump has never taken responsibility for anything in his life, I don't expect him to start in his mid70s. He'll 100% pardon himself before he leaves office.

He can't issue state-level pardons, however!
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
46,885
34,849
136
He can't issue state-level pardons, however!

This is true but the most serious crimes, so far, involve federal law. He'll use his Russian nest egg, er I mean investors, to stay out of prison until he dies. I don't know about anyone else like his close associates or kids though...think they are on their own.
 
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