Discussion 2024 USA Election Thread: Biden and Dems might have problems in 2024 swing states - The Gaza Issue

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manly

Lifer
Jan 25, 2000
11,309
2,339
136
I mean, the central point is pretty hard to argue against. Neither Biden nor Trump will stop what's happening, not on their own.

Biden isn't doing much. He's fucked, at least partly (maybe?) because he needs jewish votes. Partly because he's old school and probably really does "like" Israel, no idea. The reality is, he's not doing much.

That said, however little Biden is doing, Trump will probably do less. Trump really doesn't want to be involved in foreign stuff unless it's about him. Once he's elected, he won't give two shits about the entire area--right now he's soaking up the Evangelical vote and he knows they worship Israel.

If he does or says anything after getting elected, it will be to aid Israel in what they are doing beyond what we currently are giving them. In no possible world would Trump be favorable to the Gazans. Trump has already said basically that Israel should "get it done with" which means, go in there and flatten Gaza and exterminate the roaches. So yeah, young people upset over Gaza and voting Trump (or not voting and helping Trump in that way) are in for a bit of a shock IMO.
Joe Biden has called himself a Zionist. He will always support the state of Israel. But that doesn't mean he doesn't care about the Palestinians on ethical and moral grounds. It's pretty clear to me the thinking has shifted since October 7th, but the Biden administration is not ready to disavow the current government of Israel. If that's even possible, it would take a lot.

You keep bringing up the Jewish vote, but they are a tiny part of the electorate. And probably mostly living in cities in blue states anyway, so it's not the vote that he needs. But rather the political influence of Jewish-Americans (the campaign just raised $30M in Hollywood the other night).

While it's fair to assess that Biden isn't doing "enough," it's unfair to say he's doing nothing and it's patently absurd to say there's no distance between Biden and Trump on Israel/Palestine policy.

If you look at the major foreign crises of the Biden administration critically, one theme you might see is that they've been slow and reactive time and again. In AF, they waited until the Taliban was about to topple the capital before ordering a military evac. Our support for UA has been unwavering, but it's always been slowly reactive to the real-time needs of the conflict. IIRC Zelensky said that they could've used F16s over a year ago, when it wasn't on the table. In Gaza, we have little to no say in the IDF's revenge campaign. But as the humanitarian disaster has unfolded, we first air-dropped aid and then built a $300M pier that broke in the first storm. Again, sluggish when Bibi continues to treat the U.S. as the junior member of our alliance.

(I'm not privy to internal debates within the administration, but my gut feeling is that NSA Jake Sullivan is terrible at his job.)
 

gothuevos

Golden Member
Jul 28, 2010
1,987
1,713
136
Trump has a literal illegal West Bank settlement named after him. Anybody who thinks the Palestinians in general will fare better or about the same under another term of him are absolutely delusional.
Wait until the pro-Palestinian protestors find out what Trump has in store for THEM.
 

blankslate

Diamond Member
Jun 16, 2008
8,639
487
126
Wait until the pro-Palestinian protestors find out what Trump has in store for THEM.
That's the problem. no matter who wins in 2024 women and children in Gaza and Rafah will still be dying as a result of U.S. made munitions.
it will perhaps be a matter of degree but people are still dying unless Netanyahu does a heel turn.


__________
 

IronWing

No Lifer
Jul 20, 2001
69,447
27,703
136
lol

He likes Milwaukee so much he wasn't even going to stay there in the same city where the convention is.

[about Yakov's brother, who doesn't want to go back to the Soviet Union]

Baliff Nostradamus 'Bull' Shannon: Is it really that bad over there?

Yakov Korolenko: You ever been to Milwaukee?

Baliff Nostradamus 'Bull' Shannon: Yeah.

Yakov Korolenko: Close your eyes.

Baliff Nostradamus 'Bull' Shannon: Why?

Yakov Korolenko: Please?

[Bull does]

Yakov Korolenko: When you open your eyes, you're going to be in the middle of Milwaukee. No matter where you go, no matter how far you run, you're still going to be in the middle of Milwaukee. You can get in a cab, and drive two hundred miles in any direction, and you're still going to be in the middle of Milwaukee. You can get in an airplane, and fly two thousand miles, and you're still...

Baliff Nostradamus 'Bull' Shannon: [clutching his head] NO! STOP, STOP IT!

[Bull rushes away]

Yakov Korolenko: [to his brother] Works every time.
 

nakedfrog

No Lifer
Apr 3, 2001
58,489
12,781
136
What a piece of work. So full of sh*t with his tough talk, yet living his pampered life. So much cognitive dissonance between his own supporters when looking at the life he lives. SMH.
All that matters is that he says he'll hurt the right people. They're fine being collateral damage, and fine cheering on his blatantly obvious lies and pandering. There's no flaws they can't overlook in this--they've even forgiven him for saying the vaccine was a good thing when he gave that a try.
 
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Indus

Lifer
May 11, 2002
10,352
7,002
136

They'll also weaponize stuff like this.. just read the comments even though it's Trump and Republicans who are actively responsible for blocking immigration reform since they want to scare more white people.
 
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APU_Fusion

Senior member
Dec 16, 2013
922
1,419
136

They'll also weaponize stuff like this.. just read the comments even though it's Trump and Republicans who are actively responsible for blocking immigration reform since they want to scare more white people.
And not a whisper of this by the hypocrites

Megachurch accepts resignation of pastor who had inappropriate relationship with 12 year old years ago

Not fired, resigned. After ignoring complaints until it became widely known of course. He prayed so it was ok right greenman and pcgeek? As long as the sky god says it’s ok we good right? After all, it is only the woke left immigrants that do that kind of thing right?
 
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pmv

Lifer
May 30, 2008
13,260
8,192
136
Quite odd how the news isn’t covering this much.

View attachment 101531

Leading by 1 or 2%? In the context of the preposterous Electoral College system, and the quasi-fascist nature of the opposition, that's not _that_ inspiring.

Labour's still 20% or more ahead here, and I'm still nervous (albeit partly because the Tories just losing won't be enough, they need to be annihilated and destroyed as a political force).
 

dank69

Lifer
Oct 6, 2009
35,561
29,219
136
Leading by 1 or 2%? In the context of the preposterous Electoral College system, and the quasi-fascist nature of the opposition, that's not _that_ inspiring.

...
Normally I'd agree, but Democrats have been outperforming polls at the ballot box ever since Roe was struck down, and that trend seems to have been accelerating with every new Gen Z who reaches voting age. Republicans even started floating the idea to raise the minimum voting age because it is getting so bad.
 

Roger Wilco

Diamond Member
Mar 20, 2017
3,923
5,799
136
Leading by 1 or 2%? In the context of the preposterous Electoral College system, and the quasi-fascist nature of the opposition, that's not _that_ inspiring.

Labour's still 20% or more ahead here, and I'm still nervous (albeit partly because the Tories just losing won't be enough, they need to be annihilated and destroyed as a political force).

Im commenting on the trend rather than the lead.
 

pmv

Lifer
May 30, 2008
13,260
8,192
136
Im commenting on the trend rather than the lead.

From the data I've seen the 'trend' seems to involve the lines showing Trump and Biden's support interweaving around each other like tangled headphone cables - it's been a tiny lead for one alternating with a tiny lead for the other. Given the built-in advantage the EC gives the Republicans (and how utterly appalling a Trump second term would be) that doesn't seem enough to feel confident.

Honestly, I can't see much of a 'trend' here


Still a long time to go, though, so maybe things will improve.
 

pmv

Lifer
May 30, 2008
13,260
8,192
136
Over here I have very little confidence in Starmer, so what I'm mostly hoping for is a result so catastrophic for the Tories that, even if nothing hugely improves under Labour, at least one positive outcome will be the Tory Party being out-of-power and in turmoil for a very long time to come.
 

Roger Wilco

Diamond Member
Mar 20, 2017
3,923
5,799
136
From the data I've seen the 'trend' seems to involve the lines showing Trump and Biden's support interweaving around each other like tangled headphone cables - it's been a tiny lead for one alternating with a tiny lead for the other. Given the built-in advantage the EC gives the Republicans (and how utterly appalling a Trump second term would be) that doesn't seem enough to feel confident.

Honestly, I can't see much of a 'trend' here


Still a long time to go, though, so maybe things will improve.

Yes, we will have to wait and see if this “trend” continues or if we’ll revert back to oscillation.

I just find it amusing that, if these latest polls were reversed, the media would be screaming doom for Biden.
 
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fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
84,623
49,185
136
Yes, we will have to wait and see if this “trend” continues or if we’ll revert back to oscillation.

I just find it amusing that, if these latest polls were reversed, the media would be screaming doom for Biden.
It is funny/sad how badly the information environment is skewed in favor of Republicans. For example when Hur issued that insane report where he said Biden was forgetful or whatever that generated something like 12+ NYT articles about his mental acuity. When Trump's biographer comes out and says Trump couldn't remember who he was despite meeting him repeatedly, thought he was still president in 2021, etc., I'm not sure if it even merited a mention by the NYT.
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
46,641
34,464
136
There's been clear movements to him in the swing states. Even if the cross tabs are somehow still high on crack (Trump is not going to get 24% of the black vote). Toplines are moving.

Likely D voters just slowly coming home.
 
Reactions: Roger Wilco

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
84,623
49,185
136
From the data I've seen the 'trend' seems to involve the lines showing Trump and Biden's support interweaving around each other like tangled headphone cables - it's been a tiny lead for one alternating with a tiny lead for the other. Given the built-in advantage the EC gives the Republicans (and how utterly appalling a Trump second term would be) that doesn't seem enough to feel confident.

Honestly, I can't see much of a 'trend' here


Still a long time to go, though, so maybe things will improve.
Polls don't matter much at this point and I agree they've mostly just bounced around within the MOE. That being said, aggregates like that include pollsters like Rasmussen who, put lightly, is not a credible source.

Just look at the shit their official account puts out, anti-vaxx, election denying, insane conspiracy theories.
 
Reactions: Roger Wilco

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
46,641
34,464
136
Polls don't matter much at this point and I agree they've mostly just bounced around within the MOE. That being said, aggregates like that include pollsters like Rasmussen who, put lightly, is not a credible source.

Just look at the shit their official account puts out, anti-vaxx, election denying, insane conspiracy theories.

Garbage R aligned pollsters and averages (RCP) are doing their thing once again. This is how we got the "red wave" narrative in 2022.
 
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