Discussion 2024 USA Election Thread: Biden and Dems might have problems in 2024 swing states - The Gaza Issue

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K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
46,578
34,314
136
Regarding margins of victory:
I'll grant that Wisconsin (~0.5% for Biden) and Pennsylvania (~1.5% for Biden) were close, Michigan and Minnesota were not "razor thin", at +3% for Biden in Michigan and +7% for Biden in Minnesota.

Also have to consider the margin for other Dems in these states in 2022 too:

WI: Evers +3.4

PA: Shapiro +14.8, Fetterman +4.9

MI: Whitmer +10.6

MN: Waltz +7.7

etc...

If the median position of most voters is that US support for Israel is good then that's a winning position for politicians. Chasing the Muslim vote which has begun defecting to the Rs over social conservatism anyway is a losing idea.
 

eelw

Diamond Member
Dec 4, 1999
9,259
4,544
136
Lol who do they plan to vote for then? 3rd party candidate is just a vote for the orange monkey.
 

kage69

Lifer
Jul 17, 2003
27,830
38,005
136
I think the GQP will have a bigger Gaza/Hamas problem thanks to Trump. He compromised Israeli security the same way he did American security. Getting people killed with his vanity and ignorance is what he does.

Biden and the Dems don't have a treason problem and haven't enraged millions of GenZ voters, which I think will matter a lot more.
 
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manly

Lifer
Jan 25, 2000
11,303
2,334
136
It is certainly reasonable to expect pushback from demographics that feel like 2nd class citizens to the party they vote for. Look at what happened in 2016, it wasn't so much people flipping, but just staying home. That gave us Trump.

The Democrats had a chance to have a primary and find a more dynamic candidate, but they pussied out. Now we have to back Biden and convince others that they must do it. Too many people think 'well duh, but Biden is so much better than the GQP' - yes that is if you think of things only intellectually and fully informed.

It's like some intellectuals forget that people also operate on emotion.
Low information voters are dumb fucks, more news at 11.
 

MrSquished

Lifer
Jan 14, 2013
21,711
20,073
136
Low information voters are dumb fucks, more news at 11.
Apparently it's news to a bunch of people here. Anytime you say Biden is vulnerable they say well why would anyone not vote for him because obviously intellectually he makes more sense.

It's like they haven't realized the human condition yet. This is why Democrats don't do as well as they should
 
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Sunburn74

Diamond Member
Oct 5, 2009
5,027
2,595
136
Lol who do they plan to vote for then? 3rd party candidate is just a vote for the orange monkey.
They may not vote at all, which is all you need to lose. I mean lots of people stayed home when hillary ran, and we saw the outcome.

I don't know if this story has legs but seriously speaking winning these days is all about turnout.
 

nickqt

Diamond Member
Jan 15, 2015
7,575
7,783
136
They may not vote at all, which is all you need to lose. I mean lots of people stayed home when hillary ran, and we saw the outcome.

I don't know if this story has legs but seriously speaking winning these days is all about turnout.
Always has been (about turnout). As a corollary, national polls are absolutely meaningless. If it isn't an individual state poll, you might as well be telling me what you see in the entrails.

And as always, staying at home or voting for the Space Jesus/Zombie Washington ticket is mathematically the same as voting for the worse evil.
 
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fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
84,590
49,101
136
They may not vote at all, which is all you need to lose. I mean lots of people stayed home when hillary ran, and we saw the outcome.

I don't know if this story has legs but seriously speaking winning these days is all about turnout.
People keep saying this and sorry, it's not true.

Trump's campaign focused 100% on turning out his base - he took your idea to heart and completely ran with it. The problem is that things which encourage your base to turn out are often hot button issues that encourage the OTHER base to turn out as well, negating your advantage.

Even though the pool of persuadable voters is relatively small that's how you win.
 

MrSquished

Lifer
Jan 14, 2013
21,711
20,073
136
People keep saying this and sorry, it's not true.

Trump's campaign focused 100% on turning out his base - he took your idea to heart and completely ran with it. The problem is that things which encourage your base to turn out are often hot button issues that encourage the OTHER base to turn out as well, negating your advantage.

Even though the pool of persuadable voters is relatively small that's how you win.

Whatever Republican runs apparently you haven't realized that the last election was 4 years ago. And guess what, Biden looks a lot more shitty to a lot more people. And we're talking about independence and progressives.

In 2020 he didn't have this much baggage even though he had baggage. Now it's just 10 times worse. And let's not forget, Biden just SQUEAKED by in a couple key states. But let's pretend it was a resounding win why don't we.

So it might be helpful if you took into account the passage of time. And things like margin of victory. You know. Just small relevant things like that. You can do it I know you can!
 
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eelw

Diamond Member
Dec 4, 1999
9,259
4,544
136
People keep saying this and sorry, it's not true.

Trump's campaign focused 100% on turning out his base - he took your idea to heart and completely ran with it. The problem is that things which encourage your base to turn out are often hot button issues that encourage the OTHER base to turn out as well, negating your advantage.

Even though the pool of persuadable voters is relatively small that's how you win.
The Russian election interference campaign worked. It disenfranchised enough blacks that voted prior 2 elections to not vote in 2016
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
84,590
49,101
136
The Russian election interference campaign worked. It disenfranchised enough blacks that voted prior 2 elections to not vote in 2016
And lots of two time Obama voters in crucial states flipped to Trump, each one of those counting twice as much.

I feel like people who say that turnout is all that matters need to be able to explain why Trump’s hyper turnout focused campaign led to the largest margin of defeat for an incumbent since Jimmy Carter. That doesn’t seem like a very good strategy to me.
 

MrSquished

Lifer
Jan 14, 2013
21,711
20,073
136
And lots of two time Obama voters in crucial states flipped to Trump, each one of those counting twice as much.

I feel like people who say that turnout is all that matters need to be able to explain why Trump’s hyper turnout focused campaign led to the largest margin of defeat for an incumbent since Jimmy Carter. That doesn’t seem like a very good strategy to me.

It's amazing you keep calling it the largest margin of defeat - when it's the meaningless popular vote. In the real world, the electoral race, which actually matters, was way too close for comfort, and took a week to call and everybody was at the edge of their seats for that time. Every time you say largest margin of victory that is just totally misleading. Very republican of you really. People don't understand the dangers if you keep bullshitting about what really happened. You keep proving it by acting like Biden is the same candidate he was last election not accounting for any passage of time or how he is perceived now. It's just ridiculous.

You don't exist in reality anymore in regards to our elections and the situation on the ground, which is why you are a danger to the Democratic party's election strategies.
 

Mai72

Lifer
Sep 12, 2012
11,578
1,741
126
The issue with the “cost of living” is how productivity improvements have flowed almost exclusively to the investor class since the 1980s. Thinking any GOP administration is going to change that is delusional.

Republicans aren't going to change anything.

Savings rate among most Americans is in the toilet. Credit card debt breached $1T. An all time high. Our economy is buiilt on spending and that is what Americans do. They spend money. The stock holders are the real winners, because when you spend money on say Apple products, Apple stock goes up. It goes up, and makes the stock holders wealthy. That is our system and many Americans in the middle class are being left behind. IMO, its a system issue. You play the game or get left in the dust. Democrats, and Republicans aren't going to change that.
 
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fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
84,590
49,101
136
Republicans aren't going to change anything.

Savings rate among most Americans is in the toilet. Credit card debt breached $1T. Our economy is buiilt on spedning and that is what Americans do. They spend money. The stock holders are the real winners, because when you spend money on say Apple products Apple stock goes up. It goes up, and makes the stock holders wealthy. That is our system and many people in the middle class are being left behind. IMO, its a system issue. You play the game or get left in the dust. Democrats, and Republicans aren'tt going to change that.
It’s funny how republicans say the economy is shit when democrats are in charge and great when republicans are in charge but democrats just say it’s shit regardless.

The last few years have seen very significant declines in income inequality. Isn’t that what you want?
 

MrSquished

Lifer
Jan 14, 2013
21,711
20,073
136
Any small gains against wealth inequality by the lower and middle class have been eaten up by the increased cost of things and especially housing.

Many elitist Democrats sitting in their park slope brownstones or whatever they just don't understand how it works for people on the ground.
 

brycejones

Lifer
Oct 18, 2005
26,513
24,694
136
Republicans aren't going to change anything.

Savings rate among most Americans is in the toilet. Credit card debt breached $1T. An all time high. Our economy is buiilt on spending and that is what Americans do. They spend money. The stock holders are the real winners, because when you spend money on say Apple products, Apple stock goes up. It goes up, and makes the stock holders wealthy. That is our system and many Americans in the middle class are being left behind. IMO, its a system issue. You play the game or get left in the dust. Democrats, and Republicans aren't going to change that.

Well that’s just some of the dumbest shit I’ve read in a while here.

There is a direct line from changes in tax policies under Reagan and the shifting of productivity games from being split between workers and investors to just investors. You are correct it is a systemic issue but the system can clearly be changed by policy. Since it is policy changes they got us to this point.
 

UNCjigga

Lifer
Dec 12, 2000
24,831
9,066
136
Not a single mainstream news outlet (print/TV/online) has devoted any time to analyzing the impact of Trump/Kushner/Miller policy on Israel/Palestine, Trump leaking intel by word of mouth or documents at Mar a Lago, or drawing any sort of dotted line between unilaterally pulling out of the Iran deal, the assassination of Suleiman, and Hamas pulling off the October 7 attacks with Iran’s help. If they did, you could be damn sure it would show up in my feeds—and it hasn’t.

Democrats are going to lose the messaging wars again, as they haven’t gone there either. Dems are being shoved into a corner where they’re either seen as weak on Israel/paying too much attention to Ukraine or abandoning Palestine.
 

MrSquished

Lifer
Jan 14, 2013
21,711
20,073
136
Well that’s just some of the dumbest shit I’ve read in a while here.

There is a direct line from changes in tax policies under Reagan and the shifting of productivity games from being split between workers and investors to just investors. You are correct it is a systemic issue but the system can clearly be changed by policy. Since it is policy changes they got us to this point.
Agreed. Not saying the Dems will make it perfect by any means, but if they had more control of the government, we would definitely see these things change for the better.
 
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Fenixgoon

Lifer
Jun 30, 2003
31,764
10,263
136
Well that’s just some of the dumbest shit I’ve read in a while here.

There is a direct line from changes in tax policies under Reagan and the shifting of productivity games from being split between workers and investors to just investors. You are correct it is a systemic issue but the system can clearly be changed by policy. Since it is policy changes they got us to this point.
Hot take: employee wages aren't labor costs. They are investments in a company's human infrastructure.

Good luck getting people to buy into that though.
 

nakedfrog

No Lifer
Apr 3, 2001
58,445
12,721
136
Republicans aren't going to change anything.

Savings rate among most Americans is in the toilet. Credit card debt breached $1T. An all time high. Our economy is buiilt on spending and that is what Americans do. They spend money. The stock holders are the real winners, because when you spend money on say Apple products, Apple stock goes up. It goes up, and makes the stock holders wealthy. That is our system and many Americans in the middle class are being left behind. IMO, its a system issue. You play the game or get left in the dust. Democrats, and Republicans aren't going to change that.
The interest rate on savings was in the utter toilet for a few years, while inflation was up.
 

WelshBloke

Lifer
Jan 12, 2005
30,881
8,586
136
According to the The Arab American Institute there are nearly 3.5 million Arab Americans in the United States. Even if they voted as a block would that be enough to change an election?
 
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