Discussion 2024 USA Election Thread: Biden and Dems might have problems in 2024 swing states - The Gaza Issue

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woolfe9998

Lifer
Apr 8, 2013
16,189
14,102
136
People have a literal dollar figure in mind as to how much something should cost, doesn't matter what their income is.

Yes, they do. But isn't that weird? It's an easy bet that if you ask what a Big Mac should cost, older people are going to give a lower number than younger people. Because they remember a $2 Big Mac. Yet somehow, they don't seem to recall that back then, $20,000 a year was a decent living.
 

cytg111

Lifer
Mar 17, 2008
23,561
13,122
136
I'd be curious what polls would say if there was an option that said 'the richest 1% (735 people) in America hold $43.45T. If they were Robinhood taxed at 99%, you would receive somewhere over $100k, and they would still have tens of millions of dollars, would you support this measure'. I bet most would care little about what letter came after the candidate that made that happen.
But how would that actually fix anything? If this money from the top 1% were to suddenly mobilize into the common goods sector would inflation not just skyrocket? Most places are supply chain constrained right? International economics considerations. I guess if you were to do such a thing it should be targeted something specific not constrained.
 

[DHT]Osiris

Lifer
Dec 15, 2015
14,659
12,782
146
But how would that actually fix anything? If this money from the top 1% were to suddenly mobilize into the common goods sector would inflation not just skyrocket? Most places are supply chain constrained right? International economics considerations. I guess if you were to do such a thing it should be targeted something specific not constrained.
Why is there the assumption that the first thing everyone does when given a windfall is blow their load on consumer goods? Maybe people have debt to pay off, maybe that goes into the mythical savings account everyone's suggested they should have. Maybe they can finally get that medical procedure they couldn't afford the copay of.

It's not like money leaving the lower and middle class has kept inflation in check, so why would money introduced to the lower and middle class increase it?
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
46,885
34,850
136
Anybody who actually flips Trump because they are unhappy about how Biden has handled this situation deserves what's coming if they help him win.
 

Indus

Lifer
May 11, 2002
10,455
7,067
136
Anybody who actually flips Trump because they are unhappy about how Biden has handled this situation deserves what's coming if they help him win.

Don't kid yourself, a national divorce of America and Trumpistan is very tempting to the left as well.

No more roadblocks to so many dem policies and no more stolen supreme court seats. It would be the great reset of our time with a population exchange to follow.
 
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K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
46,885
34,850
136
Don't kid yourself, a national divorce of America and Trumpistan is very tempting to the left as well.

No more roadblocks to so many dem policies and no more stolen supreme court seats. It would be the great reset of our time with a population exchange to follow.

I don't think it's a matter of desire or even choice for most of the left. If either R states that went Biden in 2020 had canceled their valid election results because of "fraud" or Jan 6 had succeeded the country would probably have come unglued and it would have been all Republicans doing.
 
Reactions: pmv and hal2kilo
Dec 10, 2005
24,457
7,393
136
Don't kid yourself, a national divorce of America and Trumpistan is very tempting to the left as well.

A national divorce is just something privileged people say without thinking about how many "blue" states have sizeable conservative populations, and many "red" states have plenty of liberals. And it's particularly privileged position to take, when you realize that many of the Democrats in red states might also be poor or minorities that would be subject to further tormenting from completely unchecked conservative power.

So no thanks on the whole "national divorce" bs.

No more roadblocks to so many dem policies and no more stolen supreme court seats. It would be the great reset of our time with a population exchange to follow.
"Blue" states like NY and MA can pass policies tomorrow that could directly impact and improve the lives of their residents tomorrow, particularly for everyday matters like housing, without having to worry about interference from the Federal Government. Instead, they'd rather putz around the edges, point fingers at each other in the legislative branch, and generally pass the buck.
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
46,885
34,850
136
A national divorce is just something privileged people say without thinking about how many "blue" states have sizeable conservative populations, and many "red" states have plenty of liberals. And it's particularly privileged position to take, when you realize that many of the Democrats in red states might also be poor or minorities that would be subject to further tormenting from completely unchecked conservative power.

So no thanks on the whole "national divorce" bs.


"Blue" states like NY and MA can pass policies tomorrow that could directly impact and improve the lives of their residents tomorrow, particularly for everyday matters like housing, without having to worry about interference from the Federal Government. Instead, they'd rather putz around the edges, point fingers at each other in the legislative branch, and generally pass the buck.

Yes, there will be no "national divorce". It's a pipe dream. The reality of what would happen in such a split is going to be immeasurably worse and far more traumatic.

The idea that politics as a concept would basically vanish is similarly fantastical lol.
 
Dec 10, 2005
24,457
7,393
136
Yes, there will be no "national divorce". It's a pipe dream. The reality of what would happen in such a split is going to be immeasurably worse and far more traumatic.
Yeah... don't even get me started on what would happen on the foreign policy front and the end result of a "multipolar world". Want to live in the pre-WWI days of "Great Powers" and multipolarity?

The idea that politics as a concept would basically vanish is similarly fantastical lol.
Unfortunately, people believe all sorts of fantastical things. Easier for them to give into nihilism than to accept the slow, steady progress of electoralism.
 

cytg111

Lifer
Mar 17, 2008
23,561
13,122
136
Why is there the assumption that the first thing everyone does when given a windfall is blow their load on consumer goods? Maybe people have debt to pay off, maybe that goes into the mythical savings account everyone's suggested they should have. Maybe they can finally get that medical procedure they couldn't afford the copay of.

It's not like money leaving the lower and middle class has kept inflation in check, so why would money introduced to the lower and middle class increase it?
1. Why is it not your assumption? I think we can rationalize that not everyone is gonna blow ALL of it on consumer goods, but there is going to be a spectrum.

2. Is that not exactly what FED raising interest rates is all about in this inflation climate? Controlling middle class consumption?
 

[DHT]Osiris

Lifer
Dec 15, 2015
14,659
12,782
146
Why is it not your assumption? I think we can rationalize that not everyone is gonna blow ALL of it on consumer goods, but there is going to be a spectrum.
Well, let's check out what the last windfall went to.

A whole 20% went to other/durable goods. The rest went to debt, food and household consumables, and medical.

2. Is that not exactly what FED raising interest rates is all about in this inflation climate? Controlling middle class consumption?
Idk, maybe. It's negatively impacting lower class though. For consumer goods, they still have shit to buy and now it's more expensive than it used to be. For housing, they either eat shit and pay the higher rates, or eat shit and continue renting, giving their money to someone with more money than them.
 
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manly

Lifer
Jan 25, 2000
11,367
2,375
136
LOL dumb ass pivots from "50% of Americans agree with Biden's policy towards Israel, so we must kowtow to the loud left wing" to "Dems are just itching for secession too."

Because everyone knows Trump is the biggest fan of Muslims, and the biggest enemy of Israel. < /s>

Anybody who actually flips Trump because they are unhappy about how Biden has handled this situation deserves what's coming if they help him win.
The problem with this oft-used line is the 50% rest of us get fucked over as well.
 

pmv

Lifer
May 30, 2008
13,298
8,212
136
It’s the fucking Bernie bros all over again. I’ve said it before and I’ll repeat it again, Bernie bros are the magas of the left. Politically speaking, they are the dumbest (ok 2nd dumbest) mother-fers on the planet and they just don’t get it.

You either have a viable alternative or you don’t. There is no, ‘we just need a savior who can magically convince 50.1% of the people to vote for them’. Our viable choices will be between two candidates. It could be Trump and Biden, it could be Biden and some other Republican or it could be Republican X vs democrat X. No matter what, in this current political environment it’s between a democrat and a republican and you either want our democracy to continue or you want its destruction to continue. That’s your only choice. Complaining or worrying about how any candidate is doing is pointless because we don’t have options besides D and R so shut the fuck up and make your choice and if you really want to help, start building/supporting an alternative candidate who you can put forward for 2028.


Odd that the 'centrists' or 'moderates' seem to be spared this "there are only two options" line when they refuse to vote for the only alternative because it's too 'left' for them. As happened in 2019. The choice was Corbyn or the utter disaster that the Tories turned out to be, and much of the Labour right, much of the 'liberal' media, along with many of those Baby Boomer 'Red Wall' voters, opted for the Tories.

Now I'm supposed to turn out to vote for one of their number, in the form of Thatcher-fan Starmer? I don't think so.

I mean, even in the Uxbridge byelection recently, the Tories won because 500 voters decided to opt for the Lib Dems. Nobody in the commentariat even mentioned that, they only mentioned those who voted Green. Centrists are never held accountable for their actions, accountability is only for others.
 
Reactions: hal2kilo

ivwshane

Lifer
May 15, 2000
32,345
15,156
136
Odd that the 'centrists' or 'moderates' seem to be spared this "there are only two options" line when they refuse to vote for the only alternative because it's too 'left' for them. As happened in 2019. The choice was Corbyn or the utter disaster that the Tories turned out to be, and much of the Labour right, much of the 'liberal' media, along with many of those Baby Boomer 'Red Wall' voters, opted for the Tories.

Now I'm supposed to turn out to vote for one of their number, in the form of Thatcher-fan Starmer? I don't think so.

I mean, even in the Uxbridge byelection recently, the Tories won because 500 voters decided to opt for the Lib Dems. Nobody in the commentariat even mentioned that, they only mentioned those who voted Green. Centrists are never held accountable for their actions, accountability is only for others.

I’m sorry but I’m only speaking for US politics.
 
Reactions: Zorba

manly

Lifer
Jan 25, 2000
11,367
2,375
136
It’s the fucking Bernie bros all over again. I’ve said it before and I’ll repeat it again, Bernie bros are the magas of the left. Politically speaking, they are the dumbest (ok 2nd dumbest) mother-fers on the planet and they just don’t get it.

You either have a viable alternative or you don’t. There is no, ‘we just need a savior who can magically convince 50.1% of the people to vote for them’. Our viable choices will be between two candidates. It could be Trump and Biden, it could be Biden and some other Republican or it could be Republican X vs democrat X. No matter what, in this current political environment it’s between a democrat and a republican and you either want our democracy to continue or you want its destruction to continue. That’s your only choice. Complaining or worrying about how any candidate is doing is pointless because we don’t have options besides D and R so shut the fuck up and make your choice and if you really want to help, start building/supporting an alternative candidate who you can put forward for 2028.
Is OP a Bernie bro? Is he secretly pining for RFK Jr?

In reality, there's no great policy lane for the U.S. vis a vis the Israel/Hamas war. As the following op explains, the Biden administration started with standing firmly with Israel and for its territorial integrity. However, we quickly realized there's a humanitarian disaster in Gaza that simply can't be ignored. I'll paste in the entire article.


Column: Is Biden in trouble with Democrats over Gaza? Not as much as it looked​

BY DOYLE MCMANUS WASHINGTON COLUMNIST
DEC. 3, 2023 4 AM PT

WASHINGTON —
When Israel pounded Gaza with airstrikes after Hamas launched its Oct. 7 attack, it opened a dramatic divide among Democrats over a war that has claimed thousands of civilian lives.

Progressive activists staged protests across the country, demanded an immediate ceasefire and accused President Biden of complicity in genocide. A handful of Democrats in Congress joined the call for a ceasefire, but stopped short of blaming Biden for Israel’s actions.

At the height of the offensive, before last month’s week-long pause, polls found that most Democrats and voters under the age of 35 opposed Israel’s offensive, while most Republicans supported it.

An NBC News poll reported that a stunning 70% of young voters disapproved of Biden’s handling of the war — and 46% said they prefer former President Trump in next year’s election, with only 42% for Biden. Other surveys found Biden narrowly ahead among young voters, but by far less than the 20-percentage-point margin he scored in 2020 exit polls.

With Biden’s standing already sagging, those numbers suggested that he faced a serious problem among part of his voter base.

But now, strategists and pollsters say, those worries have begun to look exaggerated. The divide among Democrats hasn’t deepened. The progressives’ protests haven’t spread. And the NBC poll appears to have been an outlier.

Most Democrats in Congress have rallied behind Biden’s policy, which combines support for Israel with pressure to minimize civilian casualties and work toward peace negotiations with Palestinians other than Hamas. When progressives in the House of Representatives organized a letter urging Biden to seek a “robust bilateral ceasefire,” only 24 of 213 Democrats signed on — about 11%.

Meanwhile, Biden’s diplomacy evolved. In October, the president rallied international support for Israel in the aftermath of Hamas’ attacks. But after Israel’s airstrikes caused more than 13,300 deaths — a number that now exceeds 15,000 — he went public to urge its leaders to reduce the civilian toll.

Biden administration officials said what looked like a shift was not a response to domestic political pressures, but part of their approach all along. Still, the increasing emphasis on protecting civilians helped defuse the angst among Democrats.

On Friday, Israel resumed its airstrikes after negotiations to exchange more Israeli hostages for Palestinian prisoners broke down. But Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken said Israeli leaders had agreed to “put a premium on protecting civilians” and to continue allowing humanitarian aid supplies to enter the war zone.

The war in Gaza may still have an impact on the presidential election, but it may not be as simple as low turnout among Democratic voters unhappy about Biden’s support for Israel.

“Traditionally, foreign policy issues don’t have much visibility in presidential campaigns unless American lives are at stake,” Republican pollster Whit Ayres observed. “But the way a president handles foreign crisis often serves [as] a proxy for his competence and ability to handle the job.”

Ayres noted that Biden’s reputation as a foreign policy expert took a hit in 2021 after the chaotic withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan, an episode that appeared to drive the president’s popularity downward.

Trump, who is most likely to be the Republican nominee next year, has already aired a television commercial attacking Biden as “a weak leader,” including video of troops leaving Kabul and of Biden stumbling on the stairs of Air Force One.

Biden might be able to rebut that argument if his diplomacy ends the war in Gaza and opens the way to peace talks. He can already claim some success in preventing the war from spreading to Lebanon or other countries.

Perhaps unfairly, though, voters don’t seem to reward foreign policy success as often as they punish foreign policy failure. President George H.W. Bush helped bring the Cold War to a peaceful end in 1991, but he lost his job the next year thanks to a brief recession.

“Biden’s success at rounding up support for Ukraine and Israel has not translated into higher approval ratings at home,” Ayers said. “Inflation, immigration and crime all rank far higher [among voters] than foreign policy.”

Israel’s war in Gaza, and how Biden manages its consequences, will matter. But the race will still hinge mostly on how voters feel about the economy and other domestic issues — not diplomacy.
 
Reactions: hal2kilo

ivwshane

Lifer
May 15, 2000
32,345
15,156
136
Is OP a Bernie bro? Is he secretly pining for RFK Jr?

In reality, there's no great policy lane for the U.S. vis a vis the Israel/Hamas war. As the following op explains, the Biden administration started with standing firmly with Israel and for its territorial integrity. However, we quickly realized there's a humanitarian disaster in Gaza that simply can't be ignored. I'll paste in the entire article.


I agree with you that there really isn’t a good position but the safe bet is always the humanitarian stance. And yes the OP was a Bernie bro. I think his anxiety causes him to think irrationally and emotionally.
 

hal2kilo

Lifer
Feb 24, 2009
23,654
10,517
136
Reactions: Roger Wilco

Indus

Lifer
May 11, 2002
10,455
7,067
136
When you have to rely on drawings depicting barbaric behavior from the 1600s and implying that it was the sole preoccupation of one people, one race or one relgion to the exclusion of all others, you know you've gone off your rocker.







When someone tells you who they are believe em, or you're just like people who don't think Trump is all bad!
 
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Reactions: KMFJD

amenx

Diamond Member
Dec 17, 2004
4,012
2,284
136

View attachment 89884

View attachment 89886


When someone tells you who they are believe em, or you're just like people who don't think Trump is all bad!
When you have to rely on comments by some random unknown Pal extremist or islamists, as pointed out by some random unknown Israeli propagandist whose entire twitter account relies on cherry picking only what serves his or israels narrative, you know you're not the brightest bulb in making whatever case you hope to make.
 

amenx

Diamond Member
Dec 17, 2004
4,012
2,284
136

BTW the muslims aren't exactly our friends:

View attachment 89887

Notice they cut her achiles so she can't run away?
Yes, horrible, brutal, whatever you want to call it. What could make anyone do shit like that ffs?

Maybe seeing their own ppl or kids regularly mowed down by soldiers or settlers has anything to do with it (before the current conflict)?



 

amenx

Diamond Member
Dec 17, 2004
4,012
2,284
136
To kill an infidel "kafir" is not murder. It's the way to heaven!
Except they dont do it to other "kafirs", only Israelis, their oppressors. Pretty silly to use ISIS as your template for all Islamic peoples behaviors. Hamas is not ISIS, although they are Islamist, their main motivating drive in the conflict is the liberation of their lands. They do employ terrorist actions (like many other terrorist movements regardless of religion), but its not out of religious ideology, its to free themselves from the heavy hand of a brutal occupying oppressor. Is it justified? Nope, no violence is justified in my view regardless of who commits it.

The Zionists (Irgun) employed very similar actions in 1948 massacring Palestinian men, women and children (Deir Yassin) in their ethnic cleansing drive. Their leader Menachem Begin became the PM of Israel decades later. And pretty sure I can fish out all sorts of Torah based texts permitting the killing of Goyim (non-Jewish 'kafirs') to make the same sort of stereotypical arguments you seem to thrive on, but nope, its just stupid.
 
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pmv

Lifer
May 30, 2008
13,298
8,212
136
And pretty sure I can fish out all sorts of Torah based texts permitting the killing of Goyim (non-Jewish 'kafirs') to make the same sort of stereotypical arguments you seem to thrive on, but nope, its just stupid.

Netanyahu found one of those texts for you.


“You must remember what Amalek has done to you, says our Holy Bible. 1 Samuel 15:3 ‘Now go and smite Amalek, and utterly destroy all that they have, and spare them not; but slay both man and woman, infant and suckling, ox and sheep, camel and ass’," Netanyahu said.
 
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