Discussion 2024 USA Election Thread: Biden and Dems might have problems in 2024 swing states - The Gaza Issue

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ivwshane

Lifer
May 15, 2000
32,318
15,116
136
The only thing that concerns me isn’t who is going to vote for who, it’s which candidate will be able to actually get their supporters out to the polls. If we have another high turn out election trump will lose by an even bigger margin but if we have a historically low turn out election trumps chances go up as the numbers go down.

In a none contested primary I don’t know what the correlation is to primary voters to election turn out.

Here is some data that may help:
 
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MrSquished

Lifer
Jan 14, 2013
21,841
20,174
136
Imagine if Biden was 60. Other than the Gaza mess, how has the last 2 years been for you. Has it been horrible, or has there been more progress on infrastructure, union promotion, a booming wall street? It wouldn't even be a contest. But, Trump's mentally normal and a whopping 3 years younger. Get a grip.
if Biden was younger, we'd be in great shape. Let's face it, Biden can look like shit and often does. Logically he's obviously the best choice vs any single Republican. But I hate to keep telling people, people are not always logical, in fact much of the time they are not. It seems many do not get this. People are emotional, I mean look at me. But I'm also quite logical when it comes to the positions I support in politics.

But especially in times of distress, many people need emotional inspiration. I find it amazing how many people dismiss this as nonsense. In fact, I have been chastised for saying we need to be able to reach out to disillusioned voters and encourage them to get out and vote for Biden. If they aren't onboard now, they are terrible. And nobody has clapped back at that except for yours truly. Just look at many dictators and corrupt businessmen, they often get power due to how they inspire people. These are basic tenets of the human condition, and I find it a bit alarming it gets dismissed so quickly by so many political junkie Democrats. Man if our political culture in this country was far more logical than emotional - Democrats would be running everything. For a vast majority of people, Democratic policies are logically better. But guess what, humans are often not logical. Emotion wins plenty.

But Trump is a much weaker candidate this year, so this is great. But if Biden was even just ten years younger and more vibrant and just didn't look like a mannequin running on batteries on a low charge, and sometimes confused, this would be no contest right now. It would be fun to watch. But he is a weak candidate.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
84,683
49,274
136
The only thing that concerns me isn’t who is going to vote for who, it’s which candidate will be able to actually get their supporters out to the polls. If we have another high turn out election trump will lose by an even bigger margin but if we have a historically low turn out election trumps chances go up as the numbers go down.

In a none contested primary I don’t know what the correlation is to primary voters to election turn out.

Here is some data that may help:
You should very much worry about who will vote for who and worry less about turnout as base mobilization is not an effective election strategy. It's what Trump did in 2020 and he lost because of it.

Also, it's conventional wisdom that high turnout helps Democrats but that's not necessarily true anymore. Trump basically traded high propensity voters (suburbanites) for low propensity voters (white working class). It's a big reason why Democrats have performed so strongly in special elections and such.
 

ivwshane

Lifer
May 15, 2000
32,318
15,116
136
You should very much worry about who will vote for who and worry less about turnout as base mobilization is not an effective election strategy. It's what Trump did in 2020 and he lost because of it.

Also, it's conventional wisdom that high turnout helps Democrats but that's not necessarily true anymore. Trump basically traded high propensity voters (suburbanites) for low propensity voters (white working class). It's a big reason why Democrats have performed so strongly in special elections and such.

I guess we’ll see who is right.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
84,683
49,274
136
Trump running every election as a base only election has not exactly had a great record.
The singe election he didn't use the 'base only' strategy for was the only one he won, 2016. He was actually viewed as more moderate than Clinton at that time.

After 2016 he went all base all the time and has lost over and over. It's a terrible election strategy!
 

ivwshane

Lifer
May 15, 2000
32,318
15,116
136
Trump running every election as a base election has not exactly had a great record.

That’s true but democrats also haven’t been running a base election which is why they’ve been winning. So the only way they lose is if turnout is super low. If turnout is average or better trump will get destroyed.

Which is why I don’t care who’s voting for who (meaning who are the independents going to go for, who will Nikki’s supporters go for, etc) because no matter what the scenario, except one, Trump will lose.
 

MrSquished

Lifer
Jan 14, 2013
21,841
20,174
136
What's funny/interesting to me is that despite his atrocious electoral track record the GOP keeps going back for more.

GOP:

View attachment 94604
Well it's not very complicated. Trump has unleashed the evil of the gqp base. And that kind of evil needs a cult of personality, And he's the one. Ultimately the Republican policies do not stray too far from Trump's, besides his personal grudges. Otherwise they do a line on more policies than not. Quite simply the gqp cannot win without their base and they are unable to delink themselves from where their decades of politics have ended up.

It's the greatest human flaw. You kind of know what you're about to do is not going to be good for you overall but you get all emotional and do it anyways. Underneath it all, We should never forget, They do ultimately agree on quite a bit of policy.
I'm surprised we don't see some actual moderate Republicans start asking for a third party, I don't think there are enough of them though.

While many don't like Trump's crudeness and narcissism, at the end of the day they kind of like what the party delivers there.

And as far as abortion goes, that's not really Trump's thing. He's actually kind of moderate on the position but has been sucked in because that's what the base wants and he'll give them whatever they want as long as they give him their adoration.
 

dank69

Lifer
Oct 6, 2009
35,569
29,247
136
I don't see any reason why Democrats will buck the current trend of record turnouts. Republicans other than MAGAts are not excited, and many are flat out turned off. If it weren't for conservative media, the Republican party would already be dead.
 
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MrSquished

Lifer
Jan 14, 2013
21,841
20,174
136
I don't see any reason why Democrats will buck the current trend of record turnouts. Republicans other than MAGAts are not excited, and many are flat out turned off. If it weren't for conservative media, the Republican party would already be dead.
This is not the time to take anything for granted. While your arguments to not reach out to people if they aren't 💯 team Biden yet, because they are either Nazis or ignorant and unsafe to walk among Us, sound really appealing, I do believe we need to reach out to people and make sure they get out and vote for Biden in every election and every state in every locality. I think those people are worth a lot in this election.
 

dank69

Lifer
Oct 6, 2009
35,569
29,247
136
This is not the time to take anything for granted. While your arguments to not reach out to people if they aren't 💯 team Biden yet, because they are either Nazis or ignorant and unsafe to walk among Us, sound really appealing, I do believe we need to reach out to people and make sure they get out and vote for Biden in every election and every state in every locality. I think those people are worth a lot in this election.
Bruh, we get it. You don't have to shoehorn your dislike of my opinion into every reply to me. It's really fucking weird.
 

MrSquished

Lifer
Jan 14, 2013
21,841
20,174
136
Bruh, we get it. You don't have to shoehorn your dislike of my opinion into every reply to me. It's really fucking weird.
You are specifically talking about turnout in this election. I'm not changing the subject to make it about you. I think you taking it for granted is not smart. I don't really give a shit who you are or anything about you personally, But I will definitely stand up to really dumb takes about how to make sure we win this election.
 

dank69

Lifer
Oct 6, 2009
35,569
29,247
136
You are specifically talking about turnout in this election. I'm not changing the subject to make it about you. I think you taking it for granted is not smart. I don't really give a shit who you are or anything about you personally, But I will definitely stand up to really dumb takes about how to make sure we win this election.
I'm not taking anything for granted, I'm just stating my opinion on how turnout will shake out, barring any huge developments between now and then.
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
46,711
34,590
136
Given people's short memories, how many resources should be put into influencing polling and turnout when we're still 8 months from the election?

In free media with important Dems going on TV to tell people a lot. In paid advertising probably not a lot (at least in context of a national re-elect campaign). There are probably some opportunities through which would be exceptions like the abortion and now IVF issues the GOP falling around over..
 
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dainthomas

Lifer
Dec 7, 2004
14,611
3,456
136
I don't see any reason why Democrats will buck the current trend of record turnouts. Republicans other than MAGAts are not excited, and many are flat out turned off. If it weren't for conservative media, the Republican party would already be dead.

There are plenty of reasons to be optimistic about the election, but if we've learned anything dems still need to keep the pedal to the floor through November.
 

Indus

Lifer
May 11, 2002
10,363
7,016
136
I don't see any reason why Democrats will buck the current trend of record turnouts. Republicans other than MAGAts are not excited, and many are flat out turned off.

Meh.. people are fickle. Plenty were pissed off about COVID mismanagement last time around.

If it weren't for conservative SOCIAL media, the Republican party would already be dead.
FTFY

I think it already is dead.. it is currently:

 
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manly

Lifer
Jan 25, 2000
11,318
2,344
136
CNN and NYT must be related.. they both are leaning right and distorting facts at the same time.

Might as well be the new breitbart!
I've never heard anyone accuse CNN of leaning right.

Did @gothuevos share his discount diapers source with you?

Imagine if Biden was 60. Other than the Gaza mess, how has the last 2 years been for you. Has it been horrible, or has there been more progress on infrastructure, union promotion, a booming wall street? It wouldn't even be a contest. But, Trump's mentally normal and a whopping 3 years younger. Get a grip.
If polls are to be believed, a huge chunk of the electorate is unhappy with the Biden administration's performance. Now we can ignore the partisan BS from the GOP voters, because they are full of shit. But that still leaves a lot of people who say they aren't happy with Joe, and that's how incumbents lose reelection.
 
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Pens1566

Lifer
Oct 11, 2005
11,791
8,346
136
I've never heard anyone accuse CNN of leaning right.

Did @gothuevos share his discount diapers source with you?


If polls are to be believed, a huge chunk of the electorate is unhappy with the Biden administration's performance. Now we can ignore the partisan BS from the GOP voters, because they are full of shit. But that still leaves a lot of people who say they aren't happy with Joe, and that's how incumbents lose reelection.

CNN has taken a well publicized, and much discussed, turn to the right over the last year or two.

As for the discontent in the base ... there's more Haley voters than there are "non-Biden" voters in the primaries.
 

manly

Lifer
Jan 25, 2000
11,318
2,344
136
CNN has taken a well publicized, and much discussed, turn to the right over the last year or two.

As for the discontent in the base ... there's more Haley voters than there are "non-Biden" voters in the primaries.
Leaning right and shifting right are two different things. Even if CNN is more "moderate" than I realize, the 🤡 literally compared CNN and NYT to Breitbart News lol.

I'm not aware of any computer models that could crunch the primary results (thus far) and tell us what they mean for November. IIRC South Carolina allows Democrats to vote in the GOP primary? So Trump's 60-40 victory could be spun in different ways depending on what thesis you're trying to prove.

I realize that it's still too early for polls to have predictive power for November, but I was mainly referring to Biden's chronically low approval ratings. If past history is a guide, he's gotta boost his job approval to win reelection.
 

APU_Fusion

Senior member
Dec 16, 2013
943
1,431
136
Jesus the chicken littles in this thread.

It is the end. Biden will lose and not just Biden but every Democrat forever and ever. Doooooooooommmmmmmeeeed. Oh dear God we are doooooooooooooommmmmmed.

y’all need Prozac
 

Pens1566

Lifer
Oct 11, 2005
11,791
8,346
136
Leaning right and shifting right are two different things. Even if CNN is more "moderate" than I realize, the 🤡 literally compared CNN and NYT to Breitbart News lol.

I'm not aware of any computer models that could crunch the primary results (thus far) and tell us what they mean for November. IIRC South Carolina allows Democrats to vote in the GOP primary? So Trump's 60-40 victory could be spun in different ways depending on what thesis you're trying to prove.

I realize that it's still too early for polls to have predictive power for November, but I was mainly referring to Biden's chronically low approval ratings. If past history is a guide, he's gotta boost his job approval to win reelection.

CNN was already "middle", so a shift is kinda the same thing. True, they're not Breitbart, but moderates/independents aren't watching Breitbart. CNN changing their slant could push those folks.


I'm not sure Biden's approval ratings matter at all in a general against Trump.
 
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