Discussion 2024 USA Election Thread: Biden and Dems might have problems in 2024 swing states - The Gaza Issue

[pmv]

The Rochdale result seems kind-of relevant to this thread

Rochdale byelection confirms dissatisfaction but little else is certain

Bizarre circumstances behind George Galloway’s sweeping victory make implications for national politics unclear

www.theguardian.com

Very weird election.

To say I have mixed feelings about George Galloway would be massively-understating it. In a great many ways I really dislike the guy...yet every now and then I feel like cheering him on. And the way he bounces from triumph to disaster to triumph and back again is just astonishing. Can't think of anyone in politics or showbiz who's alternated so many times between dismal failure and amazing comebacks. I mean, he's been elected to parliament more times than the entire UKIP and Reform Parties put together.

He's basically a very right-wing far-leftist. Presumably it's something to do with being from a working-class Catholic background, which seems to be a good fit with Muslim voters. Socially very conservative but economically left, but not far-right because he's clearly extremely sexist, but in no way racist.

And Starmer really made a total mess of this campaign. Not only disowning his own candidate, out of his puzzling eagerness to keep Israel happy at all costs, but managing to do so after it was too late to pick another candidate.

But the Greens screwed-up badly as well, in almost the same way. And the Tories still managed to collapse and out-fail everybody else, so that's good.

 

[pmv]

Biden probably only has to worry about Michigan if a US version of George Galloway appears.

 

[gothuevos]

If you have a problem with people saying the same thing over and over - change starts at home!

Fair

 

[Amol S.]

Biden probably only has to worry about Michigan if a US version of George Galloway appears.

He does have to worry about Pennsylvania and Wisconsin regardless.

 

[Jaskalas]

Latest Huffpo top headlines.
Do not paint a pretty picture of the USA for 2025.

TRUMP UNHINGED: BIDEN TRYING TO 'OVERTHROW' USA!
DIRE POLL: TRUMP UP 5, BIDEN ALARM BELLS

According to the Times/Siena poll, Trump has the support of 97% of people who say they voted for him in the 2020 election, while Biden is winning just 83% of his voters from four years ago. Ten percent of the 2020 Biden voters said they would now vote for Trump, the poll found.​

 

[fskimospy]

Latest Huffpo top headlines.
Do not paint a pretty picture of the USA for 2025.

TRUMP UNHINGED: BIDEN TRYING TO 'OVERTHROW' USA!
DIRE POLL: TRUMP UP 5, BIDEN ALARM BELLS

According to the Times/Siena poll, Trump has the support of 97% of people who say they voted for him in the 2020 election, while Biden is winning just 83% of his voters from four years ago. Ten percent of the 2020 Biden voters said they would now vote for Trump, the poll found.​

That poll has 12% support for Dean Phillips - something we all know is not just wrong, but ludicrously wrong.

People need to stop hyping every meaningless poll these days, especially ones that have obviously incorrect results.

 

[K1052]

That poll has 12% support for Dean Phillips - something we all know is not just wrong, but ludicrously wrong.

People need to stop hyping every meaningless poll these days, especially ones that have obviously incorrect results.

There are a lot of WTFs in that poll. Trump voting intention over Biden with people who didn't vote in 2020 by 17 points in the LV tabs? Wut. In the highest turnout election in 60 years.

I also swear to fucking god if I have to hear Nate Cohn complain once more about people going into the cross tabs then watch his outlet push out 3 narratives based in them I am going to lose it.

 

[eelw]

While this poll aimed for a D/R/I 30/30/40 split



Look at the actual breakdown



Still horribly skewed to the right and is not to be trusted

 

[cytg111]

Suppose Trump wins. Ok!
Suppose Europe has stepped up ammo production to feed Ukraine's needs on its own.

How is TrumpyDumpy gonna "gift" Ukraine to daddy putin? - You know he is going to. How?

 

[K1052]

At a certain point one has to assume that the media, and perhaps especially the NYT, is both wittingly and unwittingly in the tank for Trump because he drives business. That's the only way I can explain the parade of polling cross tab stories to form narratives that THEIR OWN POLLSTER WHO'S SURVEY THEY ARE USING says you can't do (and especially not to question the validity of his survey). The seriousness or motives of such decisions should be brought into question.

Also instructive is how Biden's odd weakness with young voters disappeared almost entirely from this survey compared to their last one yet nary a peep about that. Reading the tabs like this without any perspective is no small part of what fueled the "red wave" narrative that took hold before the 2022 election.

 

[[DHT]Osiris]

At a certain point one has to assume that the media, and perhaps especially the NYT, is both wittingly and unwittingly in the tank for Trump because he drives business. That's the only way I can explain the parade of polling cross tab stories to form narratives that THEIR OWN POLLSTER WHO'S SURVEY THEY ARE USING says you can't do (and especially not to question the validity of his survey). The seriousness or motives of such decisions should be brought into question.

Also instructive is how Biden's odd weakness with young voters disappeared almost entirely from this survey compared to their last one yet nary a peep about that. Reading the tabs like this without any perspective is no small part of what fueled the "red wave" narrative that took hold before the 2022 election.



View attachment 94826

Exactly what my opinion of this is. Trump drives headlines, and papers want their scratch. Simple as that.

Mind you I'm not discounting the threat of Trump or MAGA but you see the cracks in the narrative the second you look a little closer.

 

[K1052]

Exactly what my opinion of this is. Trump drives headlines, and papers want their scratch. Simple as that.

Mind you I'm not discounting the threat of Trump or MAGA but you see the cracks in the narrative the second you look a little closer.

My present opinion is that Trump is currently ahead by 2-3 points with RVs though within MOE so it's not exactly like I've opened all the copium valves over here.

 

[[DHT]Osiris]

My present opinion is that Trump is currently ahead by 2-3 points with RVs though within MOE so it's not exactly like I've opened all the copium valves over here.

My honest and true opinion is that Trump will get obliterated at a legitimatized election. He barely scraped out a win in '16, he got thoroughly trounced in '20, and after 8 years of COVID, old people dying, young people growing, and tossing rights out of the window, their base has shrunk even further than before. I'm not claiming that he won't win semi/illegitimately, or that MAGA isn't still a problem, but he as a candidate is radioactive to anyone that isn't an extremist at this point.

 

[cytg111]

Sure. Trump will lose a legit general election, nine out of ten independents will shit on him.

Legit.

You also knows that in terms of political potency, Trump winning the general is up there with throwing nukes around in Ukraine - to Vladimir Putin.

I am sure we have not seen the Russian Relief Package to "Satellite State Trumpistan" in action yet.

Something is gonna *SURPRISE*.

 

[K1052]

He has done nothing of the sort. This is totally untrue.

 

[K1052]

My honest and true opinion is that Trump will get obliterated at a legitimatized election. He barely scraped out a win in '16, he got thoroughly trounced in '20, and after 8 years of COVID, old people dying, young people growing, and tossing rights out of the window, their base has shrunk even further than before. I'm not claiming that he won't win semi/illegitimately, or that MAGA isn't still a problem, but he as a candidate is radioactive to anyone that isn't an extremist at this point.

If I was Trump my main structural concern would be that I've traded high propensity voters for low ones. If turnout falls this could be a real problem. Indications that the support making the difference is coming from people who've cast no ballots in years should be a flag.

 

[dlerious]

The Supreme Court just ruled 9-0 that Colorado can't keep Trump off the ballot (5-4 for any state).

 

[manly]

My honest and true opinion is that Trump will get obliterated at a legitimatized election. He barely scraped out a win in '16, he got thoroughly trounced in '20, and after 8 years of COVID, old people dying, young people growing, and tossing rights out of the window, their base has shrunk even further than before. I'm not claiming that he won't win semi/illegitimately, or that MAGA isn't still a problem, but he as a candidate is radioactive to anyone that isn't an extremist at this point.

You keep saying DJT got trounced in 2020, and that simply isn't true. The margins were very close in the tipping point states: AZ, GA and WI. (In fact, if you flip those 3 states, the electoral college is a 269-269 tie.) The election wasn't called for nearly 4 days after polls closed.

As for COVID killing his older voters, that happened most in deep red states so it doesn't do anything to alter results. After J6, he should indeed be radioactive but he's not. Regardless of what one thinks of the polls now (it's still early), the fact that it's even a coin flip should concern Democrats. I don't have any answers because while Americans are understandably pressured by inflation, the majority who keep shit talking the economy as a whole is a real problem. This isn't just the GQP being dumb, but plenty of swing voters and even some Democratic voters.

Don't underestimate the ability of Americans to vote against their self-interest. And as evidenced in 2016, the GOP has a structural advantage in the Electoral College. Trump can lose by 2-3 points "nationally" but still win the EC if he's able to pick off a few battleground states.

 

[ivwshane]

My honest and true opinion is that Trump will get obliterated at a legitimatized election. He barely scraped out a win in '16, he got thoroughly trounced in '20, and after 8 years of COVID, old people dying, young people growing, and tossing rights out of the window, their base has shrunk even further than before. I'm not claiming that he won't win semi/illegitimately, or that MAGA isn't still a problem, but he as a candidate is radioactive to anyone that isn't an extremist at this point.

Exactly. It would be odd to think that the guy who hasn’t expanded his base and who’s endorsements have led to many losses, somehow has enough votes to beat the party that keeps winning elections and a president who won by 7 million votes the last time because he’s two years older than the other guy who also happens to be under multiple indictments.

Can it happen? Sure but it seems very, very unlikely.

 

[[DHT]Osiris]

You keep saying DJT got trounced in 2020, and that simply isn't true. The margins were very close in the tipping point states: AZ, GA and WI. (In fact, if you flip those 3 states, the electoral college is a 269-269 tie.) The election wasn't called for nearly 4 days after polls closed.

For an incumbent it was an annihilation. In the modern era it was a catastrophic loss, unheard of in a half century. There are no 'close losses' for incumbents, there's victories and slaughters.

I don't disagree with the rest of your post though, this whole thing is a fuckfest and we're not the ones having fun.

 

[MrSquished]

All the signs point to that Trump should lose. The only thing that is the problem is the Dems picked a historically unpopular and weak candidate, and we already knew the media wasn't going to do us any favors, should have had that in mind. Otherwise we could all be chillin' right now.

 

[K1052]

When a "Biden voter" is praising Trump's mental and physical fitness it might be good journalistic practice to see if they are full of shit.

NYT should have a dozen Zoomers on the payroll doing nothing but mining social media to see if the paper's reporters are being too easy of marks.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1764467738544595162

 

[eelw]

Yup all these polls are horribly skewed for clicks

 

[MrSquished]

fuck the NYT biased polls and reporting. unfollowed them on threads and uninstalled the app from my phone. Down to just NYT cooking and thinking of getting rid of that too

two more shit polls from The New York Times — what the fuck are they doing?

the numbers just don't add up

www.jefftiedrich.com

 

[Pens1566]

When a "Biden voter" is praising Trump's mental and physical fitness it might be good journalistic practice to see if they are full of shit.

NYT should have a dozen Zoomers on the payroll doing nothing but mining social media to see if the paper's reporters are being too easy of marks.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1764467738544595162

Nate is a fucking hack in need of an atomic wedgie.