Discussion 2024 USA Election Thread: Biden and Dems might have problems in 2024 swing states - The Gaza Issue

[manly]

Harris is a guaranteed L in a general election. I'm not even sure she would defeat Ted Cruz heads-up, which is saying something.

Disagree. You need someone who can win. Biden has already beaten Trump once. That counts for a lot.
Because you do need someone who can win swing states. A younger, more progressive politician would be more likely to lose them

Could Gavin Newsom have pull led it off? Sure, maybe if Biden didn't run for reelection. Because then he could do lots of primary debates and develop a lot of campaign infrastructure.But winning is first and foremost. If you don't win, you get nothing. And Biden has already won once.

I could be wrong, but personally I think Newsom cannot win a national general election. Although he certainly has some positives, he carries the baggage of being a California Democrat. Just won't fly in a lot of key states, and it's not like he has the rock-solid base support of say a Bernie Sanders either.

Haven't checked in a while, but Newsom's approval ratings are not healthy as the state stares down a very large budget deficit. Do people really think the U.S. would elect a former mayor of SF as POTUS?

 

[fskimospy]

Harris is a guaranteed L in a general election. I'm not even sure she would defeat Ted Cruz heads-up, which is saying something.


I could be wrong, but personally I think Newsom cannot win a national general election. Although he certainly has some positives, he carries the baggage of being a California Democrat. Just won't fly in a lot of key states, and it's not like he has the rock-solid base support of say a Bernie Sanders either.

Haven't checked in a while, but Newsom's approval ratings are not healthy as the state stares down a very large budget deficit. Do people really think the U.S. would elect a former mayor of SF as POTUS?

Generally speaking, moderates win elections. People often forget (because it’s insane) but in 2016 Trump was viewed as more moderate than Clinton.

 

[eelw]

Harris is a guaranteed L in a general election. I'm not even sure she would defeat Ted Cruz heads-up, which is saying something.


I could be wrong, but personally I think Newsom cannot win a national general election. Although he certainly has some positives, he carries the baggage of being a California Democrat. Just won't fly in a lot of key states, and it's not like he has the rock-solid base support of say a Bernie Sanders either.

Haven't checked in a while, but Newsom's approval ratings are not healthy as the state stares down a very large budget deficit. Do people really think the U.S. would elect a former mayor of SF as POTUS?

But are we just killing off Biden and need a replacement? Harris or a potato should still beat the orange monkey. No matter the candidate, I’d assume all Dems will take the worst possible candidate over the orange monkey.

 

[manly]

But are we just killing off Biden and need a replacement? Harris or a potato should still beat the orange monkey. No matter the candidate, I’d assume all Dems will take the worst possible candidate over the orange monkey.

The chatter around here about replacing Joe Biden on the ticket was silly ~ 4 months ago, and is even sillier now. The only reason is if Biden withdraws before the convention due to very poor health. Having said that, this election seems like a coin flip to me as of now, which is not a good place to be in considering most of the fundamentals favor Joe Biden.

Although it may seem obvious who you and I would or wouldn't vote for, it's not as obvious for "swing" voters or low propensity voters. Like I said, Kamala Harris is a guaranteed L in a general election, against virtually any plausible (R) opponent. She'd not only lose swing voters in battleground states; but there's a chunk of (D) voters who would stay home like in 2016.

If we want to lose to DJT, we'd run Harris at the top of the ticket. My core point is that Harris and Gov. Newsom are viewed as prototypical California progressives (rightly or wrongly), and would not fare well in a national contest.

 

[Jaskalas]

Harris polls worse than Biden in a Trump matchup in every survey I have seen.

"We just need another Obama, how hard is that?" is probably not a healthy electoral strategy.

We needed no term limits, so Obama could have kicked Trump's ass in 2016.

 

[eelw]

Lol the orange monkey is too much of a chicken to run against Obama.

 

[gothuevos]

Yup the lack of logic by the Biden too old crowd (which if probably a near circle Venn diagram with the cease fire crowd). You don’t remove the sitting POTUS unless they didnt plan to run for re-election

These are unprecedented times, and the old "rules" don't mean shit anymore.

 

[eelw]

These are unprecedented times, and the old "rules" don't mean shit anymore.

Fair enough. But it’s more basic than accepted long political standards. A vote for democracy and decency vs a dictator and pure greed

 

[MrSquished]

Fair enough. But it’s more basic than accepted long political standards. A vote for democracy and decency vs a dictator and pure greed

I do agree these are unique times. But your last sentence is expecting a mostly rational and informed decision based electorate. We don't have that. A lot of people vote on feels, that is our reality.

 

[APU_Fusion]

These are unprecedented times, and the old "rules" don't mean shit anymore.

Sure magat

 

[APU_Fusion]

Hey! You finally made a post without a stupid diaper joke. Didn't think you had it in you...

Hey look, a post where you pretend not to be magat concern troll loser. Didn’t know you had it in you. You need counseling really bad.

 

[gothuevos]

Biden is an ultra weak candidate but people are still living in 2020 apparently.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1795854890683560412

 

[fskimospy]

Biden is an ultra weak candidate but people are still living in 2020 apparently.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1795854890683560412

Can you explain why you agree with Nate Silver now but didn’t agree with him in the past?

Also I asked before and would be interested in an answer. You were wrong over and over, in ways that were embarrassing in how stupid your predictions were.

What have you changed where you acknowledge you were wrong before but think you are right now?

 

[APU_Fusion]

Biden is an ultra weak candidate but people are still living in 2020 apparently.

Can you explain why you agree with Nate Silver now but didn’t agree with him in the past?

Also I asked before and would be interested in an answer. You were wrong over and over, in ways that were embarrassing in how stupid your predictions were.

What have you changed where you acknowledge you were wrong before but think you are right now?

Ignore the magat concern troll. He is obviously chicken little mentally ill magat troll

 

[Indus]

He nailed it..

https://twitter.com/x/status/1795890732328431711

 

[eelw]

Yup it is insane that some black voters have changed sides because what, milk is more expensive? And I get Cuban’s like authoritarian rulers, but I’d assume they left because they wanted to escape from said authoritarian rule. Lol let’s choose someone worse than Hitler instead.

 

[gothuevos]

Can you explain why you agree with Nate Silver now but didn’t agree with him in the past?

Also I asked before and would be interested in an answer. You were wrong over and over, in ways that were embarrassing in how stupid your predictions were.

What have you changed where you acknowledge you were wrong before but think you are right now?

Every election cycle is different. Eventually though, there will be a regression to the (polling) mean. Continuing to hope for a 2022 type of miracle in defying the electoral odds is not a comforting or winning strategy.

So I was wrong in 2022. Ok, great. Again you're taking a historical outlier of an election year to complete gloss over all the other glaring issues with Dems going into November.

 

[gothuevos]

As I predicted...the internal polling/data is probably far worse than the party will ever admit.
Will someone have the courage to get in Biden's face and give him some hard advice? Better now than in August.

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/05/28/democrats-freakout-over-biden-00160047

 

[fskimospy]

Every election cycle is different. Eventually though, there will be a regression to the (polling) mean.

You clearly don't know what regression to the mean is as this is a nonsensical statement from a stats perspective.

Continuing to hope for a 2022 type of miracle in defying the electoral odds is not a comforting or winning strategy.

So I was wrong in 2022. Ok, great. Again you're taking a historical outlier of an election year to complete gloss over all the other glaring issues with Dems going into November.

You didn't answer the question. You've been repeatedly wrong in the past and not just a little wrong, but hugely wrong, always in the same direction.

What changes have you made to your understanding of election prediction that makes you confident you are correct this time?

 

[Brainonska511]

I fully support Biden's re-election and will be knocking doors for him. I have no interest in him dropping out.

But I am very saddened by the Democratic cult that thinks this was the best outcome, and that the party could not have done better. These Democratic cult members refuse to acknowledge the unique situation we're in and just bring up things that work in a normal political environment. Like anything about this is normal.

It's okay to support Brian for reelection and be able to admit that we could have done better. Just among other Democrats talking politics. But some people here just can't.

I do feel that is somewhat cult behavior. To be unable to criticize your team by looking at the facts.

And if someone is a member of the Democratic party and wants to say Joe Biden was the best option this year, Well then, I find it sad you'd want to be part of that political party. Because that's a giant failure.

Some people seem to:
1) be unable to celebrate wins when there were extremely narrow legislative majorities
2) unable to celebrate wins within the executive branch (NLRB, student loan forgiveness and fixing repayment rules, judges, great economy, etc...)
3) not understand that the president is not a king
4) that first past the post voting means one of two people will ultimately win, so might as well pick the better one. We can whine all we want about wishing how things were, but we're trapped by reality and a framework to work in
5) not understand that the president of the US is also not king of the world - other countries have agency to do or not do what we want
6) the DNC/Democratic Party is not a unified block where members must toe the party line - it's really just made up of a broad coalition of people who overwhelmingly selected Biden in primaries this year
7) want to perpetually lose, because it's easier to complain and tear things down than to build a coalition that gets things done

 

[Indus]

As I predicted...the internal polling/data is probably far worse than the party will ever admit.
Will someone have the courage to get in Biden's face and give him some hard advice? Better now than in August.

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/05/28/democrats-freakout-over-biden-00160047

And what do you expect us to do about it?

AFAIK none of us are running the campaign!

So ranting again and again about polls here isn't going to do a damn thing.

You want to do something.. contact the campaign offices.

 

[MrSquished]

Some people seem to:
1) be unable to celebrate wins when there were extremely narrow legislative majorities
2) unable to celebrate wins within the executive branch (NLRB, student loan forgiveness and fixing repayment rules, judges, great economy, etc...)
3) not understand that the president is not a king
4) that first past the post voting means one of two people will ultimately win, so might as well pick the better one. We can whine all we want about wishing how things were, but we're trapped by reality and a framework to work in
5) not understand that the president of the US is also not king of the world - other countries have agency to do or not do what we want
6) the DNC/Democratic Party is not a unified block where members must toe the party line - it's really just made up of a broad coalition of people who overwhelmingly selected Biden in primaries this year
7) want to perpetually lose, because it's easier to complain and tear things down than to build a coalition that gets things done

That's a lot of words to admit you are in a cult that can't allow criticisn of the party otherwise you'll write lots of words to shit on anyone who does

 

[Brainonska511]

That's a lot of words to admit you are in a cult that can't allow criticisn of the party otherwise you'll write lots of words to shit on anyone who does

No, I just understand how we can and can't wield power in our presidential system with a fairly non responsive legislative branch. Also, nothing brings people to polls like being a doomer when times are both good and bad. Why do anything if everything is always going to suck? Why pander to a constituency if they won't award you with continued votes/power even if you get some of their desires enacted?

 

[fskimospy]

No, I just understand how we can and can't wield power in our presidential system with a fairly non responsive legislative branch. Also, nothing brings people to polls like being a doomer when times are both good and bad. Why do anything if everything is always going to suck? Why pander to a constituency if they won't award you with continued votes/power even if you get some of their desires enacted?

Yeah I don't get how people don't understand this. If a politician does things you want, even if they aren't perfect, you need to reward that behavior by voting for them. If they do things you like and your response is 'not good enough, screw you' then they will find someone else to enact policies for who will vote for them.

 

[eelw]

Yup the demands from the complainers, it really looks like they want a dictator instead of a president. So hope they are happy with orange monkey family rule if they don’t get their head out of the sand and just hold your nose and vote Biden in November.