Discussion 2024 USA Election Thread: Biden and Dems might have problems in 2024 swing states - The Gaza Issue

[Stokely]

Biden "pulling out" a few months before the election would be an instant win for Trump as it would correctly indicate that the Democrats are in chaos. If Biden had decided to not run years ago and groomed someone else--Harris or some other unknown up-n-comer--then maybe. Presuming they have an electable up-n-comer in the ranks, like an Obama.

Eh, but who knows. Maybe I'm wrong and Harris would cruise if Biden suddenly keeled over. I don't think he'll voluntarily do it at this point. So it's a thought exercise and not much else.

Like it or not, those of us who above all else fear and hate the idea of Trump getting in better hope Biden can win and survive long enough to be sworn in. That's really options A, B and C at this point.

 

[K1052]

Biden "pulling out" a few months before the election would be an instant win for Trump as it would correctly indicate that the Democrats are in chaos. If Biden had decided to not run years ago and groomed someone else--Harris or some other unknown up-n-comer--then maybe. Presuming they have an electable up-n-comer in the ranks, like an Obama.

Eh, but who knows. Maybe I'm wrong and Harris would cruise if Biden suddenly keeled over. I don't think he'll voluntarily do it at this point.

Like it or not, those of us who above all else fear and hate the idea of Trump getting in better hope Biden can win and survive long enough to be sworn in. That's really options A, B and C at this point.

Harris polls worse than Biden in a Trump matchup in every survey I have seen.

"We just need another Obama, how hard is that?" is probably not a healthy electoral strategy.

 

[fskimospy]

Biden "pulling out" a few months before the election would be an instant win for Trump as it would correctly indicate that the Democrats are in chaos. If Biden had decided to not run years ago and groomed someone else--Harris or some other unknown up-n-comer--then maybe. Presuming they have an electable up-n-comer in the ranks, like an Obama.

Eh, but who knows. Maybe I'm wrong and Harris would cruise if Biden suddenly keeled over. I don't think he'll voluntarily do it at this point. So it's a thought exercise and not much else.

Like it or not, those of us who above all else fear and hate the idea of Trump getting in better hope Biden can win and survive long enough to be sworn in. That's really options A, B and C at this point.

Yes, the idea that Biden would pull out of the race now is a weird right wing fantasy. It would be electoral suicide.

Also, talk about disrespect to your own voters. The voters had a chance to replace Biden with someone else and they voted overwhelmingly to keep him. He’s the choice of the people.

 

[K1052]

Yes, the idea that Biden would pull out of the race now is a weird right wing fantasy. It would be electoral suicide.

Also, talk about disrespect to your own voters. The voters had a chance to replace Biden with someone else and they voted overwhelmingly to keep him. He’s the choice of the people.

The persistent myth that the apparently all powerful Democratic Party machine has foisted him upon us is something.

 

[K1052]

"THE GOP IS FAVORED to narrowly win a trifecta in the race for the White House and both houses of Congress in a newly released Decision Desk HQ/The Hill forecast model. The model currently gives Trump a 58 percent chance of winning the presidency, showing him with slight leads in most of the key swing states. It more comfortably favors the GOP in Congress, giving the party a 79 percent chance of winning the Senate and a 64 percent chance of holding onto a majority in the House. But The Hill’s Jared Gans reports that with the election still more than five months away, the percentages will change as new data comes out and Election Day approaches."


Yes...lots of time still left. For Biden to change course and pull out.

I had long thought the Dems were a lock to retake the House...this is the first projection I've seen of the opposite. Perhaps we're seeing cratering across the board for anyone associating with Biden. This makes sense, as quite a few of the recent special election wins by Dems (Tom Suozzi comes to mind) where when they distanced themselves from Biden or at least went out of their way to not even mention him.

I had assumed Dems winning the House would mitigate somewhat the impact of Project 2025. If GOP takes full control, well, you know. I wonder if we'll look back at Biden remaining in the race in the same light as RBG refusing to retire - both actions cemented GOP control in their respective branches of government. GG.

https://thehill.com/newsletters/morning-report/4690888-trump-trial-heads-to-the-jury-gop-favored-to-win-this-fall/

You know what call me superstitious but Steve Scalise crowing about what they are going to do in reconciliation with their trifecta six months before the election is probably my vibe indicator that there is not going to be an R trifecta.

 

[gothuevos]

Yes, the idea that Biden would pull out of the race now is a weird right wing fantasy. It would be electoral suicide.

Also, talk about disrespect to your own voters. The voters had a chance to replace Biden with someone else and they voted overwhelmingly to keep him. He’s the choice of the people.

How many people actually voted in the primaries? How many were open primaries?

The notion that "the people want Biden" is also a myth. Poll after poll finds that the majority of voters want NEITHER Trump or Biden to run. So who is disrespecting whom here?

The guy is now bleeding support from minorities and young voters. I mean, think about that for a second. So really the only demographic holding him up right now is a slight plurality of women voters, and only because of abortion?

This is a winning strategy?

Today the GOP is talking about fast tracking tax cuts through the reconciliation process after they win in November. They are talking about this in MAY. They sense blood in the water.

Biden is now quickly also becoming an anchor down ballot in other key states - the Cook report just shifted the NC governor race with Mark Robinson (!!) to a toss up. This will play out over and over again in battleground states and hurt Dems across the board.

 

[gothuevos]

You know what call me superstitious but Steve Scalise crowing about what they are going to do in reconciliation with their trifecta six months before the election is probably my vibe indicator that there is not going to be an R trifecta.

well it's either serious hopium from you or they smell blood in the water.

 

[K1052]

well it's either serious hopium from you or they smell blood in the water.

The man's powers of prognostication are about equal to your own.

 

[fskimospy]

How many people actually voted in the primaries? How many were open primaries?

The notion that "the people want Biden" is also a myth. Poll after poll finds that the majority of voters want NEITHER Trump or Biden to run. So who is disrespecting whom here?

We took an actual poll of what people wanted called a ‘primary election’ that Biden won overwhelmingly.

The guy is now bleeding support from minorities and young voters. I mean, think about that for a second. So really the only demographic holding him up right now is a slight plurality of women voters, and only because of abortion?

This is a winning strategy?

Today the GOP is talking about fast tracking tax cuts through the reconciliation process after they win in November. They are talking about this in MAY. They sense blood in the water.

Republicans talk about how they are going to cut taxes if they win in literally every election cycle ever.

How out of touch with reality are you at this point? The level of delusion is just off the charts.

Biden is now quickly also becoming an anchor down ballot in other key states - the Cook report just shifted the NC governor race with Mark Robinson (!!) to a toss up. This will play out over and over again in battleground states and hurt Dems across the board.

Again, has being repeatedly and hilariously wrong over and over made you question your ability to predict elections in even the smallest way?

I would be genuinely interested to hear you talk about why you think you were so wrong in the past but now have things right. What are you doing differently?

 

[MrSquished]

Harris polls worse than Biden in a Trump matchup in every survey I have seen.

"We just need another Obama, how hard is that?" is probably not a healthy electoral strategy.

I don't want Biden to pull out now but as far as thinking we needed another Obama that's the furthest thing from the case. The Democrats had an easy road this election cycle. Just find someone decent and younger and more vibrant. You didn't need a a transcendent candidate like Obama to beat Trump. The Democrats just flubbed it.

 

[gothuevos]

I don't want Biden to pull out now but as far as thinking we needed another Obama that's the furthest thing from the case. The Democrats had an easy road this election cycle. Just find someone decent and younger and more vibrant. You didn't need a a transcendent candidate like Obama to beat Trump. The Democrats just flubbed it.

Yes, pulling defeat from the jaws of victory.

 

[MrSquished]

Yes, pulling defeat from the jaws of victory.

Except I think Biden has a better than 50/50 chance to beat Trump. You don't.

But I do agree it should have never been this close.

 

[Fenixgoon]

I don't want Biden to pull out now but as far as thinking we needed another Obama that's the furthest thing from the case. The Democrats had an easy road this election cycle. Just find someone decent and younger and more vibrant. You didn't need a a transcendent candidate like Obama to beat Trump. The Democrats just flubbed it.

Disagree. You need someone who can win. Biden has already beaten Trump once. That counts for a lot.
Because you do need someone who can win swing states. A younger, more progressive politician would be more likely to lose them

Could Gavin Newsom have pull led it off? Sure, maybe if Biden didn't run for reelection. Because then he could do lots of primary debates and develop a lot of campaign infrastructure.But winning is first and foremost. If you don't win, you get nothing. And Biden has already won once.

 

[hal2kilo]

I don't want Biden to pull out now but as far as thinking we needed another Obama that's the furthest thing from the case. The Democrats had an easy road this election cycle. Just find someone decent and younger and more vibrant. You didn't need a a transcendent candidate like Obama to beat Trump. The Democrats just flubbed it.

When in history has dropping an incumbent worked?

 

[MrSquished]

Disagree. You need someone who can win. Biden has already beaten Trump once. That counts for a lot.
Because you do need someone who can win swing states. A younger, more progressive politician would be more likely to lose them

Could Gavin Newsom have pull led it off? Sure, maybe if Biden didn't run for reelection. Because then he could do lots of primary debates and develop a lot of campaign infrastructure.But winning is first and foremost. If you don't win, you get nothing. And Biden has already won once.

I have never supported Biden getting primaried.

When in history has dropping an incumbent worked?

Do you think that perhaps we just might be breaking some historical ground here and times have changed a bit? Can you name a historic situation that coincides with the fact that Nazis are close to taking our government order? Do you think it wise to look at the current situation in the context of history while also understanding the uniqueness of this situation?

 

[Pens1566]

The GQP is NOT winning the house. Just won't happen.

 

[Indus]

I think we're sorely missing something:

Trump will be Ten times worse but all these chaos activists see right now is Biden enabling Genocide. They don't chant "Genocide Joe" and "Fuck Joe Biden" for nothing!

What I'm even more convinced about is the fact they were never Joe Biden's base since if they were.. Trump would never have won in 2016!

They aren't motivated by US domestic problems like fascists packing the SCOTUS or democracy, they just love to bitch and whine and watch the world burn! So fuck them!

 

[eelw]

When in history has dropping an incumbent worked?

Yup the lack of logic by the Biden too old crowd (which if probably a near circle Venn diagram with the cease fire crowd). You don’t remove the sitting POTUS unless they didnt plan to run for re-election

 

[APU_Fusion]

Yes, pulling defeat from the jaws of victory.

Fuck you magat

 

[APU_Fusion]

It should be apparent to everyone by now gothuevos is a Magat concern troll. He fakes concern to appease his orange master. Put him on ignore so diaper changes can be reduced

 

[Stokely]

Harris polls worse than Biden in a Trump matchup in every survey I have seen.

"We just need another Obama, how hard is that?" is probably not a healthy electoral strategy.

Not arguing with that at all, nor saying it's what I personally want. The reality is, it's Biden unless he keels over, then its Harris. The time for anything else is long gone if it ever existed. For one thing Biden would have needed to desire to give up the reins, and there's no indication of that.

Whether or not that other user is a troll, not my concern...but I have a lot of worry about this election. Perhaps its because I live in FL and even the so-called "independents" I've heard from will make your head spin with the garbage they buy into. RFK jr seems like a reasonable guy! Joe Biden has Alzheimer's! And the old-time favorite, both sides suck, they need to put aside differences and get stuff done! Yeah, these are people that don't pay attention to fucksticks like MTG, and don't want to be bothered with politics. They might vote, they might not. My son and all his friends are ultra fired up about the Gaza thing--you think they'll really think about whether Trump will be worse? Most likely, they simply won't vote at all, and that's a win for the GOP when young people don't vote.

I have no idea what will happen this election but my confidence is not high. I'll vote as hard as I can!

 

[Pens1566]

I'm not so sure that Harris would be the fall back choice if Biden were to withdraw.

 

[dainthomas]

Biden "pulling out" a few months before the election would be an instant win for Trump as it would correctly indicate that the Democrats are in chaos. If Biden had decided to not run years ago and groomed someone else--Harris or some other unknown up-n-comer--then maybe. Presuming they have an electable up-n-comer in the ranks, like an Obama.

Eh, but who knows. Maybe I'm wrong and Harris would cruise if Biden suddenly keeled over. I don't think he'll voluntarily do it at this point. So it's a thought exercise and not much else.

Like it or not, those of us who above all else fear and hate the idea of Trump getting in better hope Biden can win and survive long enough to be sworn in. That's really options A, B and C at this point.

So if a president wins the election but passes away before the swearing in, the vp-elect doesn't automatically become president-elect?

 

[MrSquished]

I fully support Biden's re-election and will be knocking doors for him. I have no interest in him dropping out.

But I am very saddened by the Democratic cult that thinks this was the best outcome, and that the party could not have done better. These Democratic cult members refuse to acknowledge the unique situation we're in and just bring up things that work in a normal political environment. Like anything about this is normal.

It's okay to support Brian for reelection and be able to admit that we could have done better. Just among other Democrats talking politics. But some people here just can't.

I do feel that is somewhat cult behavior. To be unable to criticize your team by looking at the facts.

And if someone is a member of the Democratic party and wants to say Joe Biden was the best option this year, Well then, I find it sad you'd want to be part of that political party. Because that's a giant failure.

 

[fskimospy]

So if a president wins the election but passes away before the swearing in, the vp-elect doesn't automatically become president-elect?

In this case it wouldn’t matter because Harris is already VP so would just immediately become president. From my understanding though if Biden died after winning the election at 12:01 on Inauguration Day Dead Biden would assume the office and it would immediately become vacant, because he’s dead, and Harris would assume the presidency again.

So for all intents and purposes yes.