All such stories are most likely made up nonsense. They are also never verifiable, and as such great fodder for the clickbaiters to build stories around.
In reality all of these contracts will have extensive contingency sections. Slowdowns will be handled as specified in the contracts.
Everyone likes to dream that a company will be forced to produce more than they need, leading to a big oversupply, and steep discounts. But that is a pipe dream.
The mining boom and bust presents the biggest chance for oversupply discounts. This happened twice recently with a nearly perfect storm, when transitioning from NVidia 1000 to 2000 series, and again recently from 3000 to 4000.
You had production running at max trying to fill insatiable mining+gaming demand, and then that bubble just popped and demand evaporated, and both times it was also at the end of a product cycle just before release of new generation. This is the absolute worse timing for a company as they just can't sit back and wait for product to clear, they have to clear it fast to make way for new generation.
So with that perfect storm we did get some discounts. I remember some nice 1080Ti pricing, but nothing like a fire sale. I remember people waiting because there were assuming the oversupply would force much steeper discounts, but 1080 Ti suppy was essentially gone in about a month, with no steeper discounts.
This time the discounts look steeper on 3080 Ti and above, but those were mostly highly inflated mining prices brought back to reality, and again they cleared quickly. People were talking about NVidias oversupply long after the cards were gone, and they offered no discounts at all on lower end parts, likely have lower supply, and more time for them to draw down.
IMO, that's about as good as you can expect on inventory oversupply discounts, and both times they were rather limited.
Now the current situation, there is ZERO pressure on 4000 series. It's new, and NVidia has all the time in the world to adjust production/inventory levels. There is no 5000 series coming anytime soon. They have multiple options to use wafer capacity, redirecting them to hottest products when one backs up in the channel.
In theory AMD could come out with a super value product to blunt NVidia sales but I see small chance of that. They could come out with a RX 7800, with 16GB and charge $100 less, but that's a double impact on AMDs margin. Recognize that AMDs current price for the 6800XT previous gen clearance, is only $20 less MSRP than 4070. I think it will painful enough to start the 16GB 7800 XT at $600, let alone $500...