600,000 provisional ballots in Ohio

[TranceNation]

just heard on the news.

 

[GTaudiophile]

Here we go!

 

[Mill]

What station?

 

[Abraxas]

In that case Ohio is still wide open.

 

[Mill]

I'm watching CNN and didn't hear it. I am recording Fox News in the other room and didn't hear it. Where was this reported?

 

[faiznne]

I call BS. There's not 600,000 provisional ballots in Ohio. And if there is, slice that number by 1/2 because most provisional ballots are invalid. That means Kerry still has to win over 60-75% just to tie. And that's theoretically impossible.

 

[conjur]

Originally posted by: faiznne
I call BS. There's not 600,000 provisional ballots in Ohio. And if there is, slice that number by 1/2 because most provisional ballots are invalid. That means Kerry still has to win over 60-75% just to tie. And that's theoretically impossible.

Link for proof that 1/2 are invalid?

 

[Aimster]

Originally posted by: faiznne
I call BS. There's not 600,000 provisional ballots in Ohio. And if there is, slice that number by 1/2 because most provisional ballots are invalid. That means Kerry still has to win over 60-75% just to tie. And that's theoretically impossible.

90% were valid last election in Ohio

 

[Winchester]

BS That would be like 35-50% of the votes.

 

[Mill]

Originally posted by: conjur

Originally posted by: faiznne
I call BS. There's not 600,000 provisional ballots in Ohio. And if there is, slice that number by 1/2 because most provisional ballots are invalid. That means Kerry still has to win over 60-75% just to tie. And that's theoretically impossible.

Link for proof that 1/2 are invalid?

How about a link that there are 600k?

 

[Abraxas]

Kerry would only need them to split 3/2 (%60)

My math worked out

600,000-120,000=480,000
480,000/2= 240,000
120,000+240,000=360,000
360,000/600,000=.6

 

[Kibbo]

Anyone know how many absentee ballots are out there?

 

[GTaudiophile]

Originally posted by: Abraxas
Kerry would only need them to split 3/2 (%60)

My math worked out

600,000-120,000=480,000
480,000/2= 240,000
120,000+240,000=360,000
360,000/600,000=.6

Are you keeping in mind Bush has a 138953 lead in OH?

 

[Abraxas]

I was working off of a 120,000 pont lead but the math would be similar.

 

[Mill]

Originally posted by: Kibbo
Anyone know how many absentee ballots are out there?

Absentee are different than provisional, Kibbo. All absentee were counted tonight(minus the boxes still out) except for the military ballots. The military ballots have 10 days to arrive and however long to be count. The provisional have at least 10 to be checked out for veracity and then they will be counted. Absentee are only an issue if the provisional ones give Kerry the lead.

 

[Mill]

Originally posted by: Aimster

Originally posted by: faiznne
I call BS. There's not 600,000 provisional ballots in Ohio. And if there is, slice that number by 1/2 because most provisional ballots are invalid. That means Kerry still has to win over 60-75% just to tie. And that's theoretically impossible.

90% were valid last election in Ohio

Link?

 

[conjur]

CNN changed its exit polling numbers to make it look like Bush was winning.

VERY interesting.

 

[Kibbo]

Originally posted by: Mill

Originally posted by: Kibbo
Anyone know how many absentee ballots are out there?

Absentee are different than provisional, Kibbo. All absentee were counted tonight(minus the boxes still out) except for the military ballots. The military ballots have 10 days to arrive and however long to be count. The provisional have at least 10 to be checked out for veracity and then they will be counted. Absentee are only an issue if the provisional ones give Kerry the lead.

Yes, I understood that they were different, just not exactly how they are counted. If I understand you, you're saying that most absentee ballots are already included in the current counts, except for the votes from the military. Thus, assuming that they are mostly in support of Bush, they are irrelevant unless the Provisional votes slant things towards Kerry.

 

[datalink7]

Originally posted by: Mill

Originally posted by: Aimster

Originally posted by: faiznne
I call BS. There's not 600,000 provisional ballots in Ohio. And if there is, slice that number by 1/2 because most provisional ballots are invalid. That means Kerry still has to win over 60-75% just to tie. And that's theoretically impossible.

90% were valid last election in Ohio

Link?

I remember CNN stating this on TV.

 

[theblackbox]

foxnews (i know) said they had called around officials in ohio and got numbers around 130,000 provo ballots. no link, just head from analyst on tv.

 

[FoBoT]

no, that number is wrong

somebody made that up, probably the same guy that gave crack to people for registering

60-80% of provisional ballots are garbage

Bush won Ohio, no matter how many lawyers show up in the morning

 

[Mill]

Originally posted by: Kibbo

Originally posted by: Mill

Originally posted by: Kibbo
Anyone know how many absentee ballots are out there?

Absentee are different than provisional, Kibbo. All absentee were counted tonight(minus the boxes still out) except for the military ballots. The military ballots have 10 days to arrive and however long to be count. The provisional have at least 10 to be checked out for veracity and then they will be counted. Absentee are only an issue if the provisional ones give Kerry the lead.

Yes, I understood that they were different, just not exactly how they are counted. If I understand you, you're saying that most absentee ballots are already included in the current counts, except for the votes from the military. Thus, assuming that they are mostly in support of Bush, they are irrelevant unless the Provisional votes slant things towards Kerry.

Right. Absentee votes are people who sent their vote in ahead of time, and they were already cleared that they could vote. They might have been sick, out of town, disabled, or have a job that would prevent them from being at the polls. Provisional votes are votes by people that didn't have ID, were not properly registered, etc. Their information and reasons they cast a provisional ballot has to be investigated to determine the validity of the vote. Therefore the military ballots only matter if Kerry re-takes the lead. They will be heavily in favor of Bush as they always are. A network down here showed troops in Iraq cheering Bush on, so unless it was a complete setup I'd imagine they will break big for Bush again.

 

[Mill]

Originally posted by: conjur
CNN changed its exit polling numbers to make it look like Bush was winning.

VERY interesting.

Have a before/after screenshot? If true, that is extremely interesting. The reason I ask, is because they've been "updating" the exit polls all night...

 

[conjur]

Originally posted by: Mill

Originally posted by: conjur
CNN changed its exit polling numbers to make it look like Bush was winning.

VERY interesting.

Have a before/after screenshot? If true, that is extremely interesting. The reason I ask, is because they've been "updating" the exit polls all night...

Before
http://www.democraticundergrou...page/cnn_exitpoll1.gif

After (1:41am)
http://www.democraticundergrou...page/cnn_exitpoll2.gif


From a post there:

Math clearly shows updated results are RIGGED...


... to reflect the vote counts that were reported.

First CNN exit poll:

1963 respondents: 47% Male (923), 53% Female (1040)

Males for Bush: 49% of Males = 452 voters
Females for Bush: 47% of Females = 489 voters

Males for Kerry: 51% of Males = 471
Females for Kerry: 53% of Females = 551

Second CNN exit poll:

2020 respondents (57 more than the first report): 47% Male (949), 53% Female (1071)

Males for Bush: 52% of Males = 493 voters.
Females for Bush: 50% of Females = 535 (and a half, I don't know how they rounded)

Males for Kerry: 47% of Males = 456
Females for Kerry: 50% of Females = 535 (and a half)

Hello? Apparently not only did they find an extra 57 voters HOURS after the polls closed to add to their **exit polling** results, but they LOST 21 Men and 16 Women who had voted for Kerry in order to make the exit polls match the vote count. Maybe they just decided after the fact that those people had actually said they voted for Bush and they misheard them... because Bush's totals went up by well MORE than 57 votes.

There can be no doubt, the update is bogus.

 

[xenolith]

CNN just reported 164K provisional Ohio ballots just five minutes ago.