(8-17-13) AMD 9970 28nm vs. 20nm Poll

[Fastx]

Curious to see how the thinking on this forum is lately for the 9970 before any other leaks.

 

[chimaxi83]

I don't know, but you can probably find out pretty fast in the 9970 thread that's already been made.

 

[Zanovar]

Not a clue,but hoping for miracles.

 

[Lonyo]

http://www.xbitlabs.com/news/other/...ng_20nm_Process_Technology_to_Early_2014.html

Morris Chang, chief executive officer and chairman of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., said that his company will initiate volume production of chips using 20nm process technology at its Fab 14/phase 5 manufacturing facility in February, 2013. The company will also be producing chips using 20nm fabrication process at its Fab 15/phases 3 and 4 starting from May, 2014.

“On 20nm [process technology], we see little competition. The risk production has started in the first quarter [2013] and the volume production will start in early 2014 next year […]

 

[ShintaiDK]

It will not be 20nm. Simply not possible. Unless its released in the end of 2014.

And is there even a 9970 card?

 

[Zanovar]

It will not be 20nm. Simply not possible. Unless its released in the end of 2014.

And is there even a 9970 card?

Hmmm,raghu incoming 3 2 1

 

[ShintaiDK]

In case anyone needs a reminder of TSMC roadmaps and actual products:

Shame we didnt get those 28nm GPUs in 2010. But had to wait 2 years before seeing the first GPU.

 

[Tempered81]

Why have 3 categories representing 20nm possibility, and 1 category representing 28nm possibility?

How about like this:

A: 28nm

B: 20nm

 

[Tempered81]

Five to Three, Poll results say 20nm. Woot! )

 

[ShintaiDK]

Why have 3 categories representing 20nm possibility, and 1 category representing 28nm possibility?

How about like this:

A: 28nm

B: 20nm

If you already decided you want 20nm...

Its a classic hype. Working the way backwards to justify it.

 

[Zanovar]

Five to Three, Poll results say 20nm. Woot! )

haha

 

[BallaTheFeared]

I vote...

It depends on when it comes out.

If it comes out this year as anything but a paper launch, 28nm.

If they start dropping a lot of information because that's all they have to fight the 780+ than 20nm.

I think AMD could get pretty close to the 780 with a big enough chip, I just think they'll lose money on it.

 

[Fastx]

Why have 3 categories representing 20nm possibility, and 1 category representing 28nm possibility?

How about like this:

A: 28nm

B: 20nm

Just trying to get a more detailed thinking process from AT members on what they are thinking on 20nm imo.

 

[chimaxi83]

Just trying to get a more detailed thinking process from AT members on what they are thinking on 20nm imo.

Nobody here has a clue. All you'll get is guesses based on how things have worked out in the past, some of those guesses being educated.

Oh, you'll also get the obligatory financial analysis.

 

[Kenmitch]

Uber top secret risk production at xxnm by those guys in blue.

 

[CakeMonster]

Good to see some common sense in the results, even though the OP used 3 of 4 options to try to attract votes to 20nm.

 

[f1sherman]

Good to see some common sense in the results, even though the OP used 3 of 4 options to try to attract votes to 20nm.

idd very sneaky

 

[bystander36]

Good to see some common sense in the results, even though the OP used 3 of 4 options to try to attract votes to 20nm.

The reality is, the 1st two votes are saying they think it'll be 28nm. Saying it is possible, is basically saying you don't think it will be, but they don't know for sure.

 

[ZGR]

It sounds like 20nm is not ready for mass production for Q4 '13

 

[BallaTheFeared]

At this stage in the node, if it's 28nm is stupid late (meaning old news, let's all move on, next next next please!!!) and disappointing.

Not that the node is AMD's fault, just that I feel like we've slowed down to a crawl this gen, progress it would seem has suffered.


/spoiled brat rant

 

[boxleitnerb]

20 nm...technically possible? Yes.
Economically possible? NOOOOO

 

[BallaTheFeared]

Still depends wholly on the release date, which as far as I know hasn't been stated or set!

I'm hoping it's late Q1 2014 and 20nm, I can hope right?

 

[Lonyo]

If it's 28nm that might indicate that 20nm is not going to be here very soon, rather than being "stupid late".

And not sure how it can be disappointing when it's not even out yet. If it gives us price/performance progress before a node change it's not a bad thing... especially if it ends up being that 20nm isn't going to hit properly for another 9+months, which is possible given that there would be 3 months of this year, with volume ramp in February, meaning no products until March at the very earliest, realistically, and more likely later than that, so a minimum of 6 months from the start of October, and potentially longer for a good hard launch. And even longer probably for anything other than one GPU (e.g. high end GPU only on initial launch, as per recent launches, with other cards coming even later).

 

[BallaTheFeared]

If it's 28nm that might indicate that 20nm is not going to be here very soon, rather than being "stupid late".

And not sure how it can be disappointing when it's not even out yet. If it gives us price/performance progress before a node change it's not a bad thing... especially if it ends up being that 20nm isn't going to hit properly for another 9+months, which is possible given that there would be 3 months of this year, with volume ramp in February, meaning no products until March at the very earliest, realistically, and more likely later than that, so a minimum of 6 months from the start of October, and potentially longer for a good hard launch. And even longer probably for anything other than one GPU (e.g. high end GPU only on initial launch, as per recent launches, with other cards coming even later).

Well then either AMD is stupid late on a 2 year refresh cycle, or 20nm is stupid late, you have to pick one though!

Because unless it's the second coming it's already offering not enough performance to move most people off their 2 year old product. Who is it going to make sense to? The 7xxx series people who got their cards for free and made money while doing it with bitcoins which is now basically dead, or the people looking for 780+ performance but just happened to be the amazingly small minority of devout AMD fans that haven't already gone that route?


So TSMC is going to hit 20nm when Intel is rolling out 14nm? lol.. Good lord, that can't be good!

Also let us consider AMD's own comments, about 7xxx series through 2013. ()

 

[SiliconWars]

The only thing you're gonna be disappointed in is Nvidia's 20nm response in 9 months time.

Volcanic Islands was built for 28nm at it's most mature stage because AMD knows how TSMC will perform better than TSMC does, having been let down by them so often in the past.

The cards have probably been ready for a month or two already, but AMD decided to wait on BF4. This holiday season Nvidia is going to face their worst nightmare with the new AMD cards having a big lead and an amazing Never Settle bundle.

All the talk has been about how Never Settle is costing AMD money, but you guys just don't realise how long these things take to play out.