That makes sense to me.
And maybe in some cases the Linux console I discussed in post #10 becomes this home server with the addition of more cores and/or larger iGPU.
No. That's been "the future" for 40 years. The reality is that fat clients keep getting better, and servers are inefficient for small-scale tasks (too much reliance on a high-latency network infrastructure, which just shifts the load).
Once Atom-like and ARM CPUs exceed Core 2 IPC (in real world use), which is probably going to be in another 5 years or so, SFF PCs will be financially viable for any desktop user, and convertible tablets that are worth using for everything will be cheap.
You can build an ARM desktop for $70-100 that you can do software development on (RPi 2, fully encased and powered, with a sizable and fast SD card). For $150, you can get some that leave the RPi in the dust.
The new battlefield is in the cloud, and the application of the future is machine learning. It's an inflection point and those are dangerous to incumbents who have the most to lose and are often slow to react due to complacency or for fear of alienating their installed base.
Except for businesses that have learned from the passing fads in the past, and know better.
Offline hard copies are always valuable. Anything gained by the machine that can not have its value, including how the conclusions were reached, analyzed by multiple people, is ultimately not worth even storing; yet, making it to that point requires a great deal of human effort. Lots of fads and hand-waiving, but little math and experience. Cloud infrastructure outages not only happen, but can be very costly; it can also be costly for known ongoing processing needs.
The reality is that the cheap small junk is growing, server needs are growing (in part due to being more affordable than ever, including, but not limited to, IaaS), and everything else is stable in use, thus shrinking in sales. Within 10 years or so, with no disruptive changes, it'll be like automobiles, with only artificial growth markets, that still boost and sag with the economy at large.