AAPL stock death watch?

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irishScott

Lifer
Oct 10, 2006
21,568
3
0
If Microsoft is trying to imitate Apple, they're doing a bad job of it.

Well they can only do so much thanks to patents.

Companies don't exist to innovate, they exist to make money. Capitalism tries to create an environment where innovation = more money but it isn't perfect. Right now Apple's techniques are far-and-away making the most money as far as the general public goes, so in absence of any better ideas MS wants to be like them. I am neither surprised nor disturbed by the trend.

Apple's influence has been both positive and negative. In terms of technology and it's execution/implementation among the general public they've been ground-breaking. They've effectively made computers mainstream, not just as tools that you use for business/communication but something people integrate into their personal lives, that they use as a form of self-expression. This has actually done subtle wonders for the technical community. The concept of a geek is now considered cool, computer nerds now enjoy a great deal of common respect they haven't really had before.

Being a college student, the paradigm shift is especially obvious in the nature of my fellow Engineering majors. More women are choosing that route, and I know a few Electrical Engineers who are full-out frat guys when they're not working. The Geeks aren't just inheriting the earth, they're merging with it. Much of this is thanks in large part to Apple, and it's a very positive aspect IMO.


On the flip side, Apple is pretty tyrannical as corporations go. Steve Jobs established the aggressive stance and his successors seem intent on continuing with that doctrine. Their patent wars are in many ways as pathetic as any ever seen from a rational standpoint, but they drag them out regardless. Likewise they've created a very closed ecosystem, which isn't the best for innovation given its prominence.
 

AMDZen

Lifer
Apr 15, 2004
12,639
0
76
Microsoft had many opportunities to develop tablets, but they let Apple beat them to it with the iPad. The main issue with MS is that these days, they're reactive as oppose to being pro-active when it comes to developing new technology.

I concur with that.

There is little in common between Microsoft's approach and and Apple's approach. You see that as them attempting to copy Apple and failing, I see that as Microsoft doing their own thing while incorporating some elements from what Apple has done. Which is what they should be doing.

I suppose, however I don't think they should be in the mobile arena at all anymore, much less forcing it down our throats with Windows 8. They want their terrible tile layout to succeed so badly, they force it down consumers throats at every level. Xbox, Windows, etc.

They have failed in the mobile arena and should just cut their losses.
 
Last edited:
Oct 20, 2005
10,978
44
91
I own it. Bought early $300's. Still holding. Probably should have sold at $700, but who can predict the market 100% of the time?
 

torpid

Lifer
Sep 14, 2003
11,631
11
76
MS is definitely at least partially reactive to google and apple. There's no reason why they needed to have desktop mode in Windows RT / on the Surface. It was a crappy compromise they made in order to get office to work on it without major revisions of the software. Which was only needed to make sure they got the thing to market quickly enough to compete after the Nexus and iPad mini were known to be coming.
 

lxskllr

No Lifer
Nov 30, 2004
57,686
7,912
126
MS is definitely at least partially reactive to google and apple. There's no reason why they needed to have desktop mode in Windows RT / on the Surface. It was a crappy compromise they made in order to get office to work on it without major revisions of the software. Which was only needed to make sure they got the thing to market quickly enough to compete after the Nexus and iPad mini were known to be coming.

The problem is MS got lazy and complacent, and their desktop market started vanishing while they weren't looking. I think they could do something interesting in the enterprise market with their Surface tablets, but I'm not confident in the current configuration.
 

rsutoratosu

Platinum Member
Feb 18, 2011
2,716
4
81
I have own apple stock since it hit 98, 140s, 350s (last entry).

I doubt ill ever sell it, considering how well the ipad 4 and mini are selling, yes you probably can't tell but if there's a line to buy them even after hurricane sandy, no one is really staying away.

I haven't own an ipad since the first one just picked up the 4th gen last week. A bunch of friends are buying it today also. I also do my little encouragement for them to buy.

They all have some sort of nexus/android tablet and are not super excited to upgrade to another android. One actually got a surface rt 2 days ago but he may returning it.

We'll see what they report next quarter. All I know is i'm a pc guy, i do have 6 iphones since iphone 1, I dont have a mac, i can't really stand a mac, most of my friends have macbook and mac stuff. they think its great, i could care less till the stock price dips down some more
 

darkewaffle

Diamond Member
Oct 7, 2005
8,152
1
81
Apple is a great big flash in the pan imo but announcing the stock's demise is years too early.
 

jpeyton

Moderator in SFF, Notebooks, Pre-Built/Barebones
Moderator
Aug 23, 2003
25,375
142
116
No big lines for the iPad Mini launch today at my state's busiest Apple Store. I remember huge lines when the iPad 3 launched.
 

mshan

Diamond Member
Nov 16, 2004
7,868
0
71
"I think the Maps and iPad 4 thing have hurt them more than they'd care to admit. The iPad Mini also failed to impress fans and investors. They're losing loyalty among iPhone owners."
"They're still P/E of 15-20 ish, so priced closer for stagnation and as a mature company rather than growth. Not a bad thing. They'll have to give out dividends then."
I own it. Bought early $300's. Still holding. Probably should have sold at $700, but who can predict the market 100% of the time?



I don't own or trade individual stocks, but commentary I heard on tv about Apple (quite a while ago; forgot if it was still Steve Jobs era) was that stock is priced / valued by market like a major motion picture studio and how well it's latest blockbuster is doing.

So if Apple is Disney and they have just released John Carter, I guess questions become:

- at what price is the current bust at box office completely priced in, and

- probably more important since the Steve Jobs reality distortion field no longer exists, is this a one time event, or new par for the course?


Company is still growing and has lots of cash, so at some point it has got to become interesting for longer-term value or contrarian growth money managers (assuming it is a one time bust, not new normal).

That commentator making motion picture studio analogy also said that Apple was trying to transition to some sort of steadier, more royalty based revenue model (?) (that paid iTunes music service, not sure about iCloud).

OP sounds like she is in it for a trade, but ultimately, in the long-run, seems unlikely this is another another RIMM or OCZ in foreseeable future...



(FWIW, as of 10/19/12, Morningstar had their fair value estimate at $770 and said consider buying at $539. Stock price that day was $635.85)
 

Red Squirrel

No Lifer
May 24, 2003
67,936
12,384
126
www.anyf.ca
Yes because inventing the modern smartphone, changing the mobile world and setting a boom on startup companies through the App Store is like poison to the industry.

They did not invent the smart phone. That's the sad part, they have this way of making people think they invented everything, but they did not. They are just really good at marketing, and have the advantage that there's lot of fanboys then people see the fanboys and figure it's "the thing to get" and get it to and it goes from there.

Personally I'd like to see them have a bit of trouble so all the fanboism can slow down, and give other companies some of the spot light. There is plenty of alternatives out there. Lot of people are lead to believe apple is the only one who makes smart phones, mp3 players, tablets etc. Yes, their stuff is generally good from what I've heard, but there are other choices, some perhaps better because they're more open. Like phones where you can actually take the battery out or add a SD card.


That said, I doubt they're going anywhere as long as they have fanboys that line up for new releases as if it's the first time they've seen technology. As silly as the concept is the ipad mini will probably be a big hit, then they'll make an ipad mini "enhanced" with a bigger screen... they can just keep doing this and people will always flock over to buy it.
 

Gibsons

Lifer
Aug 14, 2001
12,530
35
91
Microsoft had many opportunities to develop tablets, but they let Apple beat them to it with the iPad. The main issue with MS is that these days, they're reactive as oppose to being pro-active when it comes to developing new technology.

Just like they had the chance at the open platform phone os, but google beat them to it.
 

raasco

Platinum Member
Feb 6, 2009
2,664
3
76
They just sunk $1 billion in R&D. I'm sure they're be around for a little bit longer.
 

torpid

Lifer
Sep 14, 2003
11,631
11
76
They did not invent the smart phone.

They invented the first smartphone worth buying, however. And only just barely - the original iPhone was fairly lame with no app store and the like, but it still was WAYYY better than the pieces of shit for sale at the time. I still have nightmares about windows CE
 

rsutoratosu

Platinum Member
Feb 18, 2011
2,716
4
81
They invented the first smartphone worth buying, however. And only just barely - the original iPhone was fairly lame with no app store and the like, but it still was WAYYY better than the pieces of shit for sale at the time. I still have nightmares about windows CE

exactly, I remember using my compaq ipaq, palm, treo, handspring devices, it was decent but not iphone 1 ability. I mean this is so true, smartphones before and after iphone. Apple did well with their execution with apps and apps on phone, no one ever did that before, sure lg prada had some design ahead of iphone but they didn't have an app store anywhere like apple

 

AMDZen

Lifer
Apr 15, 2004
12,639
0
76
They pretty much invented the smart phone

They pretty much invented the MP3 player

They pretty much invented the tablet

Were they the first at any of them? No. But the magnitude of difference between any of them and the Apple device is staggering. The first iPhone was so far ahead of everything else, it was ridiculous. Same with the iPod and iPad. iPod is probably the most revolutionary, but the iPhone is very close.
 

JimKiler

Diamond Member
Oct 10, 2002
3,559
205
106
I concur with that.



I suppose, however I don't think they should be in the mobile arena at all anymore, much less forcing it down our throats with Windows 8. They want their terrible tile layout to succeed so badly, they force it down consumers throats at every level. Xbox, Windows, etc.

They have failed in the mobile arena and should just cut their losses.

That is short sighted, the PC era is declining thus mobile is the solution unless you want MS to fade away, which i know they are fighting to prevent.
 

AMDZen

Lifer
Apr 15, 2004
12,639
0
76
That is short sighted, the PC era is declining thus mobile is the solution unless you want MS to fade away, which i know they are fighting to prevent.

I can promise that if they keep hammering mobile OS's for desktop usage down our throats, fade away is exactly what they'll do.

Mobile has its place. Desktops will always have their place. I don't want the OS on my gaming rig to look like the one on my phone
 
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