AAPL stock death watch?

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RampantAndroid

Diamond Member
Jun 27, 2004
6,591
3
81
The concern for Apple investors is that Samsung could be an absolutely ruthless competitor in terms of supply-chain control. Samsung is the only company in the world that can manufacture every single smartphone component in-house (screen, battery, camera, SoC, memory, etc.), so their ability to compete with Apple is unmatched.

Not totally true, they use Qualcomm for their LTE modems, right? Samsung never got their own LTE modems working reliably.
 

DesiPower

Lifer
Nov 22, 2008
15,366
740
126
So when the iPhone 5 is the best selling smartphone for Q4 does that mean "so it ends"?

maybe, but it's an historical event, it has never happened before, Apple was dethroned, even if its just for one Q, it shows that they are not untouchable anymore..
 

jpeyton

Moderator in SFF, Notebooks, Pre-Built/Barebones
Moderator
Aug 23, 2003
25,375
142
116
Not totally true, they use Qualcomm for their LTE modems, right? Samsung never got their own LTE modems working reliably.
Interesting you bring that up. Samsung is one of the few companies in the world with a LOT of fabbing capacity (which is why Apple used them to make the A4, A5, etc.).

Because TMSC doesn't have the capacity to completely meet demand for all of Qualcomm's SoCs and basebands, Qualcomm cut a deal with Samsung to fab for them.

http://www.engadget.com/2012/07/04/qualcomm-samsung-28nm-snapdragon-s4/

So my statement more or less stands true; Samsung is producing almost every component for their smartphones in-house, an advantage no other company has.
 

bruceb

Diamond Member
Aug 20, 2004
8,874
111
106
When I bought AAPL it was around $66 per share .. still in it for the long haul.
 

darkewaffle

Diamond Member
Oct 7, 2005
8,152
1
81
What's significant is that for years, NOBODY could touch the iPhone on it's own playing field. There was no single manufacturer, let alone single smartphone model, that could come close to outselling the iPhone.

Now, not only is Samsung reliably outselling Apple in total smartphone units per quarter (by a 2:1 or greater margin), but they have for the first time captured the most popular single smartphone model crown. This is merely icing on the $7+ billion profit Samsung pulled in the last quarter; again, Apple-like numbers.

The concern for Apple investors is that Samsung could be an absolutely ruthless competitor in terms of supply-chain control. Samsung is the only company in the world that can manufacture every single smartphone component in-house (screen, battery, camera, SoC, memory, etc.), so their ability to compete with Apple is unmatched.

At no point was Apple ever going to maintain utter dominance in the smartphone market, imagining so is just silly. The only reason they ever made it that far was because they were first there, or rather the first to take a previously niche product and make the masses desire it. It's the exact same thing they did with the iPad and the iPod and I'm betting it's exactly what they want to happen with Apple TV, iWatch, iGlasses, iMat; whatever it is they move to next.

Competitors finding success isn't a showcase of Apple's shortcomings (or their cooling off, I think that will come in later years as they find fewer markets to tap and the brand appeal becomes stale) imo but rather a market simply reaching equilibrium as it matures and their respective products maturing and being taken more seriously (both by the producers themselves and the consumer).
 

RampantAndroid

Diamond Member
Jun 27, 2004
6,591
3
81
Interesting you bring that up. Samsung is one of the few companies in the world with a LOT of fabbing capacity (which is why Apple used them to make the A4, A5, etc.).

Because TMSC doesn't have the capacity to completely meet demand for all of Qualcomm's SoCs and basebands, Qualcomm cut a deal with Samsung to fab for them.

http://www.engadget.com/2012/07/04/qualcomm-samsung-28nm-snapdragon-s4/

So my statement more or less stands true; Samsung is producing almost every component for their smartphones in-house, an advantage no other company has.

Never knew that - interesting, but not wholly surprising I'll admit.
 

DesiPower

Lifer
Nov 22, 2008
15,366
740
126
At no point was Apple ever going to maintain utter dominance in the smartphone market, imagining so is just silly. The only reason they ever made it that far was because they were first there, or rather the first to take a previously niche product and make the masses desire it. It's the exact same thing they did with the iPad and the iPod and I'm betting it's exactly what they want to happen with Apple TV, iWatch, iGlasses, iMat; whatever it is they move to next.

Competitors finding success isn't a showcase of Apple's shortcomings (or their cooling off, I think that will come in later years as they find fewer markets to tap and the brand appeal becomes stale) imo but rather a market simply reaching equilibrium as it matures and their respective products maturing and being taken more seriously (both by the producers themselves and the consumer).

I partially agree, but another major problem is Apple's lack of innovation... for example, with iPhone 5 and iPad mini there were limited to no new features, and the ones that were new for apple, were already available on others for years... This lack of innovation is what's dragging them down imho.
 

darkewaffle

Diamond Member
Oct 7, 2005
8,152
1
81
I partially agree, but another major problem is Apple's lack of innovation... for example, with iPhone 5 and iPad mini there were limited to no new features, and the ones that were new for apple, were already available on others for years... This lack of innovation is what's dragging them down imho.

I think there's two sides to that coin. On one hand, they're slower adopting some new things. On the other hand, they've never really needed to play catch up either. I think in addition to marketing Apple are quite skilled at product modulation and planned obsolescence.

With the possible exception of the 4S, every generation of iPhone (and every generation of iPad thus far, and iPods were pretty good at this as well) has had at least one big feature upgrade. Retina, dual core, 3G, LTE, Verizon availability, size; they've been staggered across their phones in a calculated fashion. I think they could have definitely adopted a lot of those features faster, but from a business perspective, why would they? With this cycle, each year for the past five years they've been nigh guaranteed a massive amount of press, attention, hype, and most importantly cash once a year. And all the interest surely does wonders for their mindshare.

I think they could have definitely progressed their phones faster, but I also think doing so would have actually been less lucrative for them.
 

Texashiker

Lifer
Dec 18, 2010
18,811
197
106
It's a classic case when you have a company built entirely around a single person. When they retire or kick the bucket it's all down hill from there. They either head down the tubes or they become bureaucratized, like what happened to Walmart.

I dont think it was steve jobs that made apple what it is today. I think it was a lack of competition.

Steve had an influence in apples success, but so did microsoft when it dropped the ball 10 years ago.

A tablet idea was presented to microsoft almost 10 years ago. The idea was rejected because the device could not run windows. If microsoft had introduced a tablet 8 or 10 years ago, apple would probably be out of business.

As more options enter the market, I look for apple to return to where it was at in the 1990s.

The company has no real value expect through patents. Apple does not even own the factories that build its products.

Apple is not like exxon who owns billions in physical property assets that have a real physical value.

What does apple own? Some land and office space? So did enron.

In 2013 we are going to probably see a multitude of new tablets. Where is that going to leave apple? Right back where it was at in the 1980s and 1990s.
 

zephyrprime

Diamond Member
Feb 18, 2001
7,512
2
81
Amen sister. I use Windows Mobile on my 2007 phone and have not been able to upgrade because I refuse to use a phone that has NO STYLUS or uses an icon interface and cutesy buttons.

I want a serious OS like Win Mobile 5.1
I used to have a wince pda but dude, stop drinking to kool aid. Phones from that era are complete junk compared to ANYTHING you can buy now.
A stylus is no good on a phone. Interactions with the phone are short and merely taking the stylus out takes too long. And how often does one need to hand write anything on a phone? Next to never.
 

Nemesis 1

Lifer
Dec 30, 2006
11,366
2
0
Don't listen to idiots around here. They are anti-apple only because its cool to be.

They have their place.

As to the news, this just means its about time to buy some stock for when it skyrockets again.

Really Than I screwed up when I dumped my shares . I didn't want to really . I backed myself in to a corner , I bought to much gold and needed cash for other reasons. So I cut lose my apple shares
 

SSSnail

Lifer
Nov 29, 2006
17,461
82
86
I think there's two sides to that coin. On one hand, they're slower adopting some new things. On the other hand, they've never really needed to play catch up either. I think in addition to marketing Apple are quite skilled at product modulation and planned obsolescence.

With the possible exception of the 4S, every generation of iPhone (and every generation of iPad thus far, and iPods were pretty good at this as well) has had at least one big feature upgrade. Retina, dual core, 3G, LTE, Verizon availability, size; they've been staggered across their phones in a calculated fashion. I think they could have definitely adopted a lot of those features faster, but from a business perspective, why would they? With this cycle, each year for the past five years they've been nigh guaranteed a massive amount of press, attention, hype, and most importantly cash once a year. And all the interest surely does wonders for their mindshare.

I think they could have definitely progressed their phones faster, but I also think doing so would have actually been less lucrative for them.
Their problem is that every time they release something that's considered ”groundbreaking”, the competitors have had the feature for a while. They were relying on the ignorant of their use base for profits, and it obviously worked. For how much longer, we don't know, but we do know that a lot of the blind followers are starting to see the light.
 

DesiPower

Lifer
Nov 22, 2008
15,366
740
126
Their problem is that every time they release something that's considered ”groundbreaking”, the competitors have had the feature for a while. They were relying on the ignorant of their use base for profits, and it obviously worked. For how much longer, we don't know, but we do know that a lot of the blind followers are starting to see the light.

I have seen this several times in my life, latest, I was at an Indian Grocery store, the friend of the owner, middle aged businessman, barged in, very exited... I just got *THE SHIT* from best buy dude, its the new iPad, the mini, its the best in the market, its the best, I finally for it, they are in high demand, will sell out soon and then you will have to wait for weeks...

and I was like, <Picard facepalm> dude... seriously...
 

raasco

Platinum Member
Feb 6, 2009
2,664
3
76
I dont think it was steve jobs that made apple what it is today. I think it was a lack of competition.

Steve had an influence in apples success, but so did microsoft when it dropped the ball 10 years ago.

A tablet idea was presented to microsoft almost 10 years ago. The idea was rejected because the device could not run windows. If microsoft had introduced a tablet 8 or 10 years ago, apple would probably be out of business.

As more options enter the market, I look for apple to return to where it was at in the 1990s.

The company has no real value expect through patents. Apple does not even own the factories that build its products.

Apple is not like exxon who owns billions in physical property assets that have a real physical value.

What does apple own? Some land and office space? So did enron.

In 2013 we are going to probably see a multitude of new tablets. Where is that going to leave apple? Right back where it was at in the 1980s and 1990s.

Companies usually have limited competition when they are innovative and ahead of the curve, correct?

I don't agree with the "death watch" title, but I can see the stock slipping into the high $300 or low $400 range in the next year. Ed Conway does make some very good points in his article. http://www.businessinsider.com/dear-apple-im-leaving-you-2012-11
 

DesiPower

Lifer
Nov 22, 2008
15,366
740
126
I think Apple needs to reinvent something new, like Xerox had mouse but apple made is more usable and popular, same with smartphones, HTC had them but apple made them more usable, fun to use and popular, kudos to app store, same with iPads, there were tablets out there but apple scaled them down, and made them fun to use and popular, very similar story with iPods too.

But for a while there is nothing, unless they come with the next best thing (and no, TV is probably not the answer) then they are really doomed.
 

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
29,312
2,101
126
Apple off big time when Iphone 5 shipments disappoint -

461.83
52.18 (10.15%)

Another mixed bag for Apple today: solid revenue and a beat on earnings, but the stock is still tanking and is down more than 10% after hours.
Apple hit Wall Street estimates for iPhone sales, which were expected to fall between 47 million and 48 million following Verizon&#8217;s report. But Apple&#8217;s profit in the holiday quarter was essentially flat compared with the same quarter a year ago.


Despite refreshing nearly its entire line-up (the number mentioned on the earnings call was &#8220;80% of revenue&#8221, Apple wasn&#8217;t able to deliver the kind of blowout that investors were hoping for. Apple is still the world&#8217;s most valuable company, but its upward trajectory no longer seems limitless.
 

Wreckem

Diamond Member
Sep 23, 2006
9,459
987
126
Apple off big time when Iphone 5 shipments disappoint -

461.83
52.18 (10.15%)

iPhone 5 did not disappoint. They hit their targets. They sold record numbers of iPhones and iPads. They had more records broken but its not good enough.

Investors want double digit year over year growth which is not ever sustainable once a company reaches a certain size. Apple is still an extremely healthy company making tremendous amounts of profit.
 

JEDI

Lifer
Sep 25, 2001
30,160
3,302
126
yup.. i was right about shorting Appl when it was $700/share!

too bad i sold/covered recently.

never would have imagained they fall below $500 so quickly!
Another Blackberry indeed!
 

Red Storm

Lifer
Oct 2, 2005
14,233
234
106
I used to have a wince pda but dude, stop drinking to kool aid. Phones from that era are complete junk compared to ANYTHING you can buy now.
A stylus is no good on a phone. Interactions with the phone are short and merely taking the stylus out takes too long. And how often does one need to hand write anything on a phone? Next to never.

Depends. A stylus doesn't make sense on a tiny iPhone, but take something like the Note 2 and it makes perfect sense.
 

rsutoratosu

Platinum Member
Feb 18, 2011
2,716
4
81
yup.. i was right about shorting Appl when it was $700/share!

too bad i sold/covered recently.

never would have imagained they fall below $500 so quickly!
Another Blackberry indeed!

difference is blackberry didn't sell 47 million phones..

so selling millions of phones and millions of tablet means a company is going under ? hahaha
 
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