Discussion Ada/'Lovelace'? Next gen Nvidia gaming architecture speculation

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moonbogg

Lifer
Jan 8, 2011
10,637
3,095
136
If we're not even sure about the final specs, and this guy is just guessing scores from the specs, then his guesses are not better than any of our guesses knowing the same specs.

And the 'I don't care' to top it off... Well, I don't care particularly anymore either, with this lazy attitude and giving yourself license to get away with saying random stuff. At least this guy has some history of getting things right, as opposed to other people who one can only hope will fade into obscurity.

I am other people and I declare the only way to buy this year or next is to by used and go for the deal. Oh boy! 4070 performs like a 3090 with 10GB of ram, for what? $6-700? That's basically a 3080 for the price of a 3080 on sale. Oh yay! So why wouldn't I just buy a 3080 on ebay for half the price? For me to buy a 4070 it needs more than 10GB of ram, has to perform at least at 3090 levels and needs to cost $500 or less. If their plan is to wait for the used market to clear out, then good luck to them waiting that long. Used 3000 cards will be available FOR EVER and will only get cheaper. That 4070 might never make sense at the price they want.
 
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CP5670

Diamond Member
Jun 24, 2004
5,526
604
126
There is a Jayztwocents video saying the same thing. The current card prices won't fall by much more than they already have, and Nvidia/AMD will just have higher price tiers for the new cards. The market will quite clearly support the higher prices.
 

Frenetic Pony

Senior member
May 1, 2012
218
179
116
There is a Jayztwocents video saying the same thing. The current card prices won't fall by much more than they already have, and Nvidia/AMD will just have higher price tiers for the new cards. The market will quite clearly support the higher prices.

That guy is a total idiot, same one that "leaked" that RTX 4xxx series wouldn't be out for a year from his "special sources" like two days before Nvidia registered the trademarks for RTX 4xxx IE the "we're going to release this soon" paperwork. Doomsaying is boring.

Anyway the more interesting thing is timelines. Does Nvidia launch asap with the "fastest GPU ever!!"? And do they delay their other cards until their feared glut of miner cards passes so they have less pricing competition. My guess is both, even if they need to warehouse. They don't know if they can beat AMD in speed and possibly price both, but they could beat them to the punch which is still valuable.

They also like their precious margins because too many analysts are lazy and stupid; so I wouldn't be surprised if they took a hit to revenue and gave forward guidance for higher revenue and steady margins a few quarters later when they've judged the market is more opportune; after any major glut but before any slight danger of Battlemage actually appearing and being good. I mean hey there's technically a chance you'll win the lottery as well.

If there's any pricing damage from the coming improvement to price for performance it's probably that. AMD wouldn't mind Nvidia staying out of the market below the highest end either, that's still less competition, at least temporarily, meaning they'll get to charge higher prices for those seeking "new only" cards. But of course this exposes the flaw in my gamble above: Nvidia trying to wait it out only gets them so much, AMD will be waiting for them either way.

Which brings me to... there's the slightest offchance, probably as much as the chance that Battlemage launches next year and is good, that Nvidia just gives up on their predicament and floods the market. They've got their wafers ordered, and either they sell them to the only chip designer I can think of that could use even more wafers right now: AMD, or they gamble and warehouse, or they flood the market. It's not likely, mid term it would be really damaging to their profits as ramping up price later would have a severe negative impact. But I just mention it because, well, it is there.
 
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CP5670

Diamond Member
Jun 24, 2004
5,526
604
126
Whatever you think of him, this point makes sense. Nvidia has increased the price of the top cards with every generation, especially when there is a big performance improvement. I can't even remember the last time when a new GPU release significantly dropped the price of the previous generation.
 

amenx

Diamond Member
Dec 17, 2004
4,007
2,276
136
Should have checked, tweet posted earlier previous page. But interesting redditor analysis.
 

Frenetic Pony

Senior member
May 1, 2012
218
179
116
Should have checked, tweet posted earlier previous page. But interesting redditor analysis.

Perf per watt doesn't benefit IHVs bottom lines, at least not in terms of trading it off for higher clocks in shipping desktop products. Might as well shove that clockspeed as high as possible so you can charge the most for each piece of silicon you can. I'd be surprised if AMD were any different for the 7xxx series. They know they missed the boat on the original 6900xt for example, but have already demoed what they'll be doing with the super high clockspeeds on 6600.
 
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moonbogg

Lifer
Jan 8, 2011
10,637
3,095
136
That's why the 4070 is delayed for another 5 years; it's basically a 3080 for the price of a 3080. I also never pay attention to the 4080/4090 leaks because I assume those are both going to cost a fortune anyway, so no thanks on either of those.
 

Saylick

Diamond Member
Sep 10, 2012
3,385
7,151
136
AD104 getting clocked out the wazoo on this SKU. Hot dang.

It feels like when you buy a fully loaded Toyota Corolla and it costs more than a decently specced Camry while not really offering substantially more. At some point it's better to get the next tier up and I think this SKU crosses it.

 
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Aapje

Golden Member
Mar 21, 2022
1,467
2,031
106
It feels like when you buy a fully loaded Toyota Corolla and it costs more than a decently specced Camry while not really offering substantially more. At some point it's better to get the next tier up and I think this SKU crosses it.

I think that's usually the case with videocards. Better buy a cheaper variant one tier up than the most expensive of a lower tier.
 
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Tuna-Fish

Golden Member
Mar 4, 2011
1,422
1,759
136
This is old and ot, but anyway:
US also gets 240v to our house. But where EU is a 2 pole 240v transformer, ours is a 3 pole 240v transformer. The center pole goes to ground, and either pole to ground then yields our standard 120v. Pole to Pole is the same 240v EU gets. The US system is safer.

This is an inaccurate description of EU domestic electrical systems.

At least here in Finland, the typical household supply is 3-phase AC, with the voltage between each phase and ground at 230V. This is delivered to the outlets. Then ovens, saunas and dryers are powered by crossing the phases, which gets you 400V.

There are non-CUDA APIs used for scientific compute

There are, but they are mostly irrelevant. The typical small-mid size gpu compute user has typically spent a lot more money on their software than they ever spend on the hardware it runs on. Engineer time costs a ton. Nvidia has been brilliant at figuring out where the market is going and making sure that the foundations are laid on their tech, meaning it all depends on CUDA.
 
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moonbogg

Lifer
Jan 8, 2011
10,637
3,095
136
AD104 getting clocked out the wazoo on this SKU. Hot dang.

It feels like when you buy a fully loaded Toyota Corolla and it costs more than a decently specced Camry while not really offering substantially more. At some point it's better to get the next tier up and I think this SKU crosses it.


That's probably a 4070Ti and will probably cost $800+. I'd rather buy a cheap post flood 3080 for $350 ish. To spend more than twice the price, that 4070 would have to be...actually I wouldn't spend twice the price on anything, so that's that.
 
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Tup3x

Golden Member
Dec 31, 2016
1,011
1,001
136
With same power consumption you match last gen performance... How bad TSMC 5nm process is? I have hard time believing those power usage numbers. Even straight die shrink should do much better than that.
 
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biostud

Lifer
Feb 27, 2003
18,397
4,963
136
With same power consumption you match last gen performance... How bad TSMC 5nm process is? I have hard time believing those power usage numbers. Even straight die shrink should do much better than that.
It is supposedly a special nvidia 4nm node, but since AMD promises 50% performance/watt uplift going from 7nm to 5nm and RDNA2 to RDNA3, it is hardly something to do with the node. But as you say, maybe the rumored numbers are simply way off.
 

Tup3x

Golden Member
Dec 31, 2016
1,011
1,001
136
In any case, it should be on a other level compared to what Ampere is using in terms of everything.
 
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jpiniero

Lifer
Oct 1, 2010
14,835
5,452
136
With same power consumption you match last gen performance... How bad TSMC 5nm process is? I have hard time believing those power usage numbers. Even straight die shrink should do much better than that.

The 4070 Ti should be faster than the 3090 Ti if it's 400 W. But they are for sure running it way way above the efficiency curve to get there.
 

Aapje

Golden Member
Mar 21, 2022
1,467
2,031
106
Reactions: biostud
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