Discussion Ada/'Lovelace'? Next gen Nvidia gaming architecture speculation

[igor_kavinski]

Intel, Apple and AMD don't make their CEO do a 2 hour keynote.

I'm sure no one made him do anything. Greedy people are highly motivated to keep performing if it helps to make them more money. He will go back and tell the board, I was out there for two hours! Did you see what I did??? Everyone was mesmerized and excited! Now gimme a bonus!

 

[A///]

he was one pom pom away from telling us his dealer's name so we can use the same speed he does.

 

[Aapje]

I'm 3/4ths through the presentation and so far I see no sign of mental degradation, but:
- he seems very focused on garnering favor with the crowd based on his Taiwanese background, to the point of talking to his American helpers in Chinese, showing that his attention is more with pleasing the crowd than communicating with his helpers
- His crysis-joke combined with his lack of interest in actually focusing on bringing things to gaming just drives home the gap between the image he has of himself as a friend of gamers and how he is actually presenting himself
- He has some minor issues with choosing what parts of his thought process he keeps to himself. These mostly seem to center around a dissatisfaction with certain elements of the presentation (like the lack of sound effects and how the audio guy doesn't give feedback to him through his ear piece about the sound levels). He starts acting rather childish, but this can just as easily be a sign of him being spoiled rotten, which he probably is.

But he does consistently keep explaining his vision, without losing his way, repeating himself or otherwise acting like Brandon.

And I don't understand the 'speed' comment, since he talks at normal speeds and his enthusiasm seems to fall within perfectly normal boundaries for an American who tries to sell you his stuff. As a European, I'm used to seeing excessive enthusiasm from Americans even when they are peddling a turd sandwich.

 

[gdansk]

I'm 3/4ths through the presentation and so far I see no sign of mental degradation, but:
- he seems very focused on garnering favor with the crowd based on his Taiwanese background, to the point of talking to his American helpers in Chinese, showing that his attention is more with pleasing the crowd than communicating with his helpers
- His crysis-joke combined with his lack of interest in actually focusing on bringing things to gaming just drives home the gap between the image he has of himself as a friend of gamers and how he is actually presenting himself
- He has some minor issues with choosing what parts of his thought process he keeps to himself. These mostly seem to center around a dissatisfaction with certain elements of the presentation (like the lack of sound effects and how the audio guy doesn't give feedback to him through his ear piece about the sound levels). He starts acting rather childish, but this can just as easily be a sign of him being spoiled rotten, which he probably is.

But he does consistently keep explaining his vision, without losing his way, repeating himself or otherwise acting like Brandon.

And I don't understand the 'speed' comment, since he talks at normal speeds and his enthusiasm seems to fall within perfectly normal boundaries for an American who tries to sell you his stuff. As a European, I'm used to seeing excessive enthusiasm from Americans even when they are peddling a turd sandwich.

Nice try but as Americans we can tell his behavior is a bit abnormal. He's a tech CEO not Steve Ballmer. Oh... Well. He was mocked too.

He's probably just high on the AI wave, quarterly projection and excited to be in Taiwan.

 

[Aapje]

Nice try but as Americans we can tell his behavior is a bit abnormal.

You probably have to be a bit abnormal te become a self-made CEO. Elon Musk is also a little peculiar.

 

[igor_kavinski]

You probably have to be a bit abnormal te become a self-made CEO.

Not a bit. They are certified psychopaths. At their level, if they start caring, they wouldn't be able to do their job. Which makes me very curious about Lisa Su

 

[Mopetar]

You probably have to be a bit abnormal te become a self-made CEO. Elon Musk is also a little peculiar.

When you're as wealthy as they both are you get called eccentric.

Millionaires can afford to be peculiar and the rest of us poor schlubs are either weirdos or crazy.

 

[Aapje]

Not a bit. They are certified psychopaths. At their level, if they start caring, they wouldn't be able to do their job. Which makes me very curious about Lisa Su

She seems pretty normal, so that probably means that she has a cellar full of sex slaves.

 

[psolord]

She seems pretty normal, so that probably means that she has a cellar full of sex slaves.

Where do I sign up? xD

 

[utahraptor]

What is the highest power draw any of you have seen? That Star Wars game they were giving away with the AMD cpus is brutal.

 

[Mopetar]

Where do I sign up? xD

No kidding. If I want an older Asian woman to tie me up it's $500/hour and you're telling me I can get it free of charge!

Good to see that AMD is still offering a significant cost advantage somewhere even if they've largely stopped with GPUs.

 

[jpiniero]

SAMSUNG introduces world's first GDDR7 memory up to 32 Gbps - VideoCardz.com

Samsung Develops Industry’s First GDDR7 DRAM To Unlock the Next Generation of Graphics Performance Samsung’s latest 32Gbps GDDR7 to further expand capabilities in applications for AI, HPC and automotive vehicles Enhancements in GDDR7 include 1.4 times boost in performance and 20% improvement in...

videocardz.com

Samsung says they have completed development of their first GDDR7 chip. Of note there is no capacity increase, just 32 Gbps. It's possible that the timing would work for Ada Refresh products.

 

[Heartbreaker]

SAMSUNG introduces world's first GDDR7 memory up to 32 Gbps - VideoCardz.com

Samsung Develops Industry’s First GDDR7 DRAM To Unlock the Next Generation of Graphics Performance Samsung’s latest 32Gbps GDDR7 to further expand capabilities in applications for AI, HPC and automotive vehicles Enhancements in GDDR7 include 1.4 times boost in performance and 20% improvement in...

videocardz.com

Samsung says they have completed development of their first GDDR7 chip. Of note there is no capacity increase, just 32 Gbps. It's possible that the timing would work for Ada Refresh products.

Do you think NVidia is inclined to a do a refresh? All the strong competition from AMD will force their hand?

 

[Ajay]

Do you think NVidia is inclined to a do a refresh? All the strong competition from AMD will force their hand?

No. They might put out something like an RTX 4080 Ti using cut down A102 silicon (since the standard 4080 is a bit weak - and NV could rake in more money). But there isn't really a *need* for it given RDNA3's relatively lackluster performance vis-a-vis Ada.

 

[Heartbreaker]

No. They might put out something like an RTX 4080 Ti using cut down A102 silicon (since the standard 4080 is a bit weak - and NV could rake in more money). But there isn't really a *need* for it given RDNA3's relatively lackluster performance vis-a-vis Ada.

The problem with 4080 is that it's so expensive, but not top dog. A 4080 Ti would have the same problem, it would probably still sell less than the 4090, maybe even less than 4080 Ti.

So a less expensive AD102 based 4080 Ti, is not a recipe to rake in Money. NVidia would likely rather just keep selling them as 4090's for more money, or Workstation parts for even more.

 

[Ajay]

The problem with 4080 is that it's so expensive, but not top dog. A 4080 Ti would have the same problem, it would probably still sell less than the 4090, maybe even less than 4080 Ti. [Ed. I think you have a typo here]

So a less expensive AD102 based 4080 Ti, is not a recipe to rake in Money. NVidia would likely rather just keep selling them as 4090's for more money, or Workstation parts for even more.

Well, as alway, it's about pricing (and volume from Nvidia's perspective). If the somewhat lackluster performance on the 4080 relative to its price is pushing games to opt for the 4090 - then that is a great 'upsell' for NV. If the Ti replaced the standard 4080 at approx. the same price - I think it the increase in sales would be worth it for NV, versus lost sales of the 4090. But that's just my speculation - NV has the real data and I don't. It's really hard to deduce the mindset of the average higher end gaming buyer from DIY forums who are often more hardcore hardware geeks.

 

[jpiniero]

Well, as alway, it's about pricing (and volume from Nvidia's perspective). If the somewhat lackluster performance on the 4080 relative to its price is pushing games to opt for the 4090 - then that is a great 'upsell' for NV. If the Ti replaced the standard 4080 at approx. the same price - I think it the increase in sales would be worth it for NV, versus lost sales of the 4090. But that's just my speculation - NV has the real data and I don't. It's really hard to deduce the mindset of the average higher end gaming buyer from DIY forums who are often more hardcore hardware geeks.

You could do a 4080 Ti with the full AD103 and GDDR7... and maybe if it's close to the 4090 maybe price it closer to the 4090. Then refresh the 4090 with GDDR7 and a higher price.

 

[Heartbreaker]

You could do a 4080 Ti with the full AD103 and GDDR7... and maybe if it's close to the 4090 maybe price it closer to the 4090. Then refresh the 4090 with GDDR7 and a higher price.

That makes more sense than ditching the AD103 altogether, and selling AD102 chips at AD103 prices.

But the issue remains that there is ZERO pressure for NVidia to do anything.

Maybe if AMD gets RDNA4 out well before NVidias next generation, they can refresh the Ada lineup, with GDDR7, to compete better, but until then they don't have much incentive.

I wonder if they need new memory controllers for GDDR7, and how much that chip respin would cost. Also the price for GDDR7 likely won't be worth it initially, making this a later, rather than sooner option. Maybe mid to late 2024 (again to compete with RDNA 4, RX 8000 cards).

 

[jpiniero]

I wonder if they need new memory controllers for GDDR7, and how much that chip respin would cost.

There's been speculation that Ada supports GDDR7. But they could do a respin too.

Also the price for GDDR7 likely won't be worth it initially

If price is an issue, then perhaps only the 4090 Ti then. And just charge 2+ grand for it.

 

[Ajay]

You could do a 4080 Ti with the full AD103 and GDDR7... and maybe if it's close to the 4090 maybe price it closer to the 4090. Then refresh the 4090 with GDDR7 and a higher price.

Less of a bump in performance. 17% more shaders - which will push performance up by less than 10% (non-linear scaling and all). A clock bump, if possible, woud, however, seal the deal. These GPUs and circuit boards were designed for GDDR6x, I doubt GDDR7 is plug-n-play, so I'd say no to that happening (verification costs, at the very least, would like mean a negative ROI in the current market).

 

[Ajay]

There's been speculation that Ada supports GDDR7. But they could do a respin too.



If price is an issue, then perhaps only the 4090 Ti then. And just charge 2+ grand for it.

Nvidia could do both - 4080 Ti and 4090 Ti; would be a great mid term upgrade. Sadly for AMD, it would leave there 7900 series buried in the dust - and their already weak sales would crater without more discounts (which AMD is loathe to do).

 

[Heartbreaker]

If price is an issue, then perhaps only the 4090 Ti then. And just charge 2+ grand for it.

The card that most needs memory bandwidth is the 4060 Ti. Though some of that could be gained moving up to GDDR6X and give that there were some late model 3060Ti cards with GDDR6X, that is a drop in replacement without needing a new memory controller. They should have done that for 16GB model at minimum.

 

[TESKATLIPOKA]

You could do a 4080 Ti with the full AD103 and GDDR7... and maybe if it's close to the 4090 maybe price it closer to the 4090. Then refresh the 4090 with GDDR7 and a higher price.

Why would you use GDDR7 for full ADA103? That''s just extra 4SM or 5% and RTX 4080 is not BW starved.
You certainly don't need 43% higher BW for that.

GDDR7 with 32gbps speeds looks great, the only problem I see is them being only 16Gbit.
Nvidia could release a next gen GPU with performance comparable to full ADA104, but with 128-bit 32gbps GDDR7 instead. BW would be even a bit higher than what RXT 4070TI has.
A future RTX 5060Ti with 8GB Vram in the making?

@jpiniero And you assume It based on what? Except ADA106 I don't think the rest is BW starved.

 

[jpiniero]

Why would you use GDDR7 for full ADA103? That''s just extra 4SM or 5% and RTX 4080 is not BW starved.
You certainly don't need 43% higher BW for that.

I assume they are all starved.. some more than others.

 

[Heartbreaker]

I assume they are all starved.. some more than others.

Looking at the ratios of SPs to GB of bandwidth some a much more starved, though this doesn't factor how effective the cache is:

4060     11.3 SP/GB
4060 ti  15.1 SP/GB
4070     11.7 SP/GB
4070 ti  15.2 SP/GB
4080     13.6 SP/GB
4090     16.3 SP/GB

4060 Ti, 4070Ti and 4090 are the most in need of more memory Bandwidth.

4060 and 4070 would likely have small benefit. 4080 somewhere in the middle.