Discussion Ada/'Lovelace'? Next gen Nvidia gaming architecture speculation

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gdansk

Platinum Member
Feb 8, 2011
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If AD103 doesn't come to desktop I will really dislike that line up. There's a huge gap without it. And it would be more efficient than clocking AD104 to the moon.
 

jpiniero

Lifer
Oct 1, 2010
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If AD103 doesn't come to desktop I will really dislike that line up. There's a huge gap without it. And it would be more efficient than clocking AD104 to the moon.

It'd certainly make it easier to swallow paying $1500+ if even the deepest cut AD102 is way faster.
 

gdansk

Platinum Member
Feb 8, 2011
2,489
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It'd certainly make it easier to swallow paying $1500+ if even the deepest cut AD102 is way faster.
Yes, I suppose so. But is the 4080 going to be a cut down 102 like Ampere or 104 like Turing? I suppose we will see but AD104 seems too small for that.
 

Timmah!

Golden Member
Jul 24, 2010
1,462
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It cant come fast enough. This year has been really shit so far and there is nothing really ahead for me to look forward to either - getting one of these is probably the only thing i can think of right now that might bring me some joy.

104 chip in Older xx80 cards used to be 2/3 of the big 102 chip. If the new 103 is not even that, 4080 has to be 102 chip.
 

jpiniero

Lifer
Oct 1, 2010
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Yes, I suppose so. But is the 4080 going to be a cut down 102 like Ampere or 104 like Turing? I suppose we will see but AD104 seems too small for that.

It's usually been x104. The 3080 being GA102 was an anomaly.

104 chip in Older xx80 cards used to be 2/3 of the big 102 chip.

.I suspect the SM count on AD102 was increased at some point because they got intelligence on what AMD was doing.
 

Aapje

Golden Member
Mar 21, 2022
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Yeah, Nvidia wants to be sure that the 4090 defeats the 7900.

That's why I expect the price of the 4090 to be rather extreme as well, but for the other cards to have fairly reasonable MRSPs.
 

jpiniero

Lifer
Oct 1, 2010
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Yeah, Nvidia wants to be sure that the 4090 defeats the 7900.

That's why I expect the price of the 4090 to be rather extreme as well, but for the other cards to have fairly reasonable MRSPs.

If you think about it, the 3080's MSRP was $699 (along with being cut 102 instead of 104), but who knows how many FE cards they originally intended to sell... and that was on a cheap Samsung node that they got a deal on.
The 2080 FE was $799 (even though the fake MSRP was $699) and most aftermarket cards were at least that
1080 FE was originally $699
980 was $549

That's why I'm saying the 4080/full AD104 is probably $999 given how expensive N5/N4 is.
 

SmokSmog

Member
Oct 2, 2020
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No way that RTX 4080 will get AD104, too small die. At worst it will get full or cut down AD103 84-80SM.
Remember, AD104 has only 192Bit bus. There is possibility that RTX 4080 and 4070 will use the same die (AD103), one will use full die and another will use cut down version. That would mean AD104 for RTX 4060Ti and RTX 4060.

I don't think that RTX 4060 will use AD106 die, this would have been downgrade in memory from 12GB to 8GB compared to 192Bit RTX 3060.

Ampere
GA102 84SM 100%
GA103 60SM 71,4%
GA104 48SM 57,1%
GA106 30SM 35,7%
GA107 20SM 23,8% RTX 3050

Lovelace
AD102 144SM 100%
AD103 84SM 58,3%
AD104 60SM 41,6%
AD106 36SM 25%
AD107 24SM 16,6% <------ extreme low end aka RTX 4050 non Ti
 

jpiniero

Lifer
Oct 1, 2010
14,831
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No way that RTX 4080 will get AD104, too small die. At worst it will get full or cut down AD103 84-80SM.

Would it make you feel better if we found out that AD102 was supposed to be like 120, but got bumped to 144 because of AMD?

Remember, AD104 has only 192Bit bus.

People said the same thing about RDNA2.

I don't think that RTX 4060 will use AD106 die, this would have been downgrade in memory from 12GB to 8GB compared to 192Bit RTX 3060.

AD106 might be far enough out that something that's more than 2 GB chips might become available, be it GDDR6 or GDDR7.
 

xpea

Senior member
Feb 14, 2014
447
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As for the clock speeds, I feel like 2.2-2.3 is way too low. nVidia is getting 1.9-2 on the crappy SS8. I feel like fill rate is a bit of a bottleneck, and while nVidia could up the ROPs/TMUs per SM, I somehow doubt that will happen. Hell even Intel is getting more than that.
Yep, the target is 2.5GHz boost. Let's see how good is their new AI EDA toy in circuit layout optimization...
 

SmokSmog

Member
Oct 2, 2020
63
113
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This is the middle ground

RTX 4090 AD102 140SM 384Bit 24Gb/s 24GB
RTX 4080Ti AD102 114SM 320 bit 24Gb/s 20GB
RTX 4080 AD103 84SM 256Bit 24Gb/s 16GB
RTX 4070 AD103 72SM 256Bit 21Gb/s 16GB
RTX 4060Ti AD104 60SM 192Bit 21Gb/s 12GB
RTX 4060 AD104 52SM 192Bit 18Gb/s 12GB
RTX 4050Ti AD106 36SM 128Bit 18Gb/s 8GB
RTX 4050 AD107 24SM 128Bit 18Gb/s 8GB

RTX 4090Ti AD102 144SM 384Bit 28-32Gb/s 24GB. In q3-q4 2023 as refresh with GDDR7.

Summing it up:

RTX 4080 will not get AD104 or lower, too big gap between AD104 and AD102
RTX 4070 may have full AD104 instead of cut down AD103.

It all depends how competitive RDNA3 will be.
 

Aapje

Golden Member
Mar 21, 2022
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I don't see the point in putting 20GB in the 4080 Ti, if you care about more than 16 GB, you'd want the 24 GB.

Putting 12 GB in the 4060 might be a good move against an 8 GB 7600, so there is something that can be used to justify buying it over the 7600, assuming that the AMD card will beat it, as expected.
 

SmokSmog

Member
Oct 2, 2020
63
113
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It's not about some point, you have choice with 320 Bit bus, 10GB with 1GB modules or 20GB with 2GB modules, what will you choose ?
Same with 256Bit bus on AD103, do you really want 8GB turd in 2023 ?
Or maybe you want 4th generation of GPUs with 11/12GB again ?
BTW 8GB is not enough for next generation period, end of story.
 

postmortemIA

Diamond Member
Jul 11, 2006
7,721
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I don't see the point in putting 20GB in the 4080 Ti, if you care about more than 16 GB, you'd want the 24 GB.

Putting 12 GB in the 4060 might be a good move against an 8 GB 7600, so there is something that can be used to justify buying it over the 7600, assuming that the AMD card will beat it, as expected.
nVIDIA said they'll keep selling RTX 3000 series in parallel after RTX 4000 are released, so they're not going to cannibalize RTX 3070 and 3080 with smaller memory sizes, I think we're not going to see 12GB..
 

jpiniero

Lifer
Oct 1, 2010
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RTX 4080 will not get AD104 or lower, too big gap between AD104 and AD102

Just sayin, last time before Ampere that the x80 was not using x104 was Kepler 2, almost 9 years ago. It could still be a very deep cut AD102 but that seems unlikely because N5/4 yields are too good.
 

Aapje

Golden Member
Mar 21, 2022
1,467
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nVIDIA said they'll keep selling RTX 3000 series in parallel after RTX 4000 are released, so they're not going to cannibalize RTX 3070 and 3080 with smaller memory sizes, I think we're not going to see 12GB..

You are assuming that they are going to sell the entire range, which makes little sense. I expect them to keep selling the 3060 (and perhaps 3050), just like they kept selling the 2060.

Also, they never actually promised they would, but said that they might, depending on the situation at the time.
 
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jpiniero

Lifer
Oct 1, 2010
14,831
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You are assuming that they are going to sell the entire range, which makes little sense. I expect them to keep selling the 3060 (and perhaps 3050), just like they kept selling the 2060.

Also, they never actually promised they would, but said that they might, depending on the situation at the time.

Only reason they wouldn't would be is if The Flood happens, and if that happens there won't be any new products in the sub-$600 range from either card maker until it clears.
 

Mopetar

Diamond Member
Jan 31, 2011
8,004
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Just sayin, last time before Ampere that the x80 was not using x104 was Kepler 2, almost 9 years ago. It could still be a very deep cut AD102 but that seems unlikely because N5/4 yields are too good.

What die they use for the x80 card will depend entirely on how competitive AMD is and little else. The 3080 wasn't even that heavy of a cut and the Samsung process was rumored to have some issues.

Yields don't matter since they will still bin everything to hit performance targets and not all functional silicon can do that. We could easily see a similar situation with Lovelace where the 4080 is an ~80% 102 die if AMD offers strong enough competition with RDNA3. Nvidia doesn't want the 4080 being compared with mid-range AMD cards. That makes AMD look like a winner more than anything else.
 

jpiniero

Lifer
Oct 1, 2010
14,831
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Yields don't matter since they will still bin everything to hit performance targets and not all functional silicon can do that. We could easily see a similar situation with Lovelace where the 4080 is an ~80% 102 die if AMD offers strong enough competition with RDNA3. Nvidia doesn't want the 4080 being compared with mid-range AMD cards. That makes AMD look like a winner more than anything else.

The chiplet models won't be mid range. All it needs is to be faster than the monolithic model.
 

Mopetar

Diamond Member
Jan 31, 2011
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The chiplet-based models will be modular and can support a broader product line. I'm assuming it's entirely possible for there to be single chiplet GPUs that would be less powerful than a monolithic GPU targeting 6900XT performance levels.
 
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