Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) Bankrupt By 2020?

csbin

Senior member
Feb 4, 2013
858
412
136
http://www.valuewalk.com/2015/05/advanced-micro-devices-inc-amd-bankrupt-by-2020/


lol :biggrin:

We contend that Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NYSE:AMD) one of Silicon Valley’s semiconductor success stories, will file for bankruptcy by 2020. Since 2008, this legacy company has survived by slashing operating expenses, spinning off its manufacturing business and transitioning away from its core PC business to “growth markets”. While it may be succeeding in marketing its turnaround narrative to the market, we see ADM at a point of no return. We identify a toxic combination comprising an uncompetitive product portfolio, technological leap forwards by competitors, several structural challenges, poor positioning due to an ineffective strategy and a worsening balance sheet. While it is bagging some wins, the clock is ticking and AMD will be unable to drive profitability in industries where product leadership, rather than merely pricing, determines success.
 

CHADBOGA

Platinum Member
Mar 31, 2009
2,135
832
136
Probably has more chance of being correct than Sharikou PhD's prediction of Intel Bankrupt by 2011.
 

postmortemIA

Diamond Member
Jul 11, 2006
7,721
40
91
What a joke. Company like AMD does not go bankrupt. If things are hopeless, somebody will buy them for IP and talents.

Like this.
 
Mar 10, 2006
11,715
2,012
126
What a joke. Company like AMD does not go bankrupt. If things are hopeless, somebody will buy them for IP and talents.

Like this.

In that case, it would make more sense to wait until the company goes bankrupt so that you can get the talent and IP on the cheap without having to buy the business which is arguably in very poor shape.

p.s. BlackBerry is flush with cash and bankruptcy isn't even close to in the cards. AMD, on the other hand, has a sizable net debt position and is burning money. I'd say AMD's chance of bankruptcy are far, far higher than BlackBerry's.
 

Abwx

Lifer
Apr 2, 2011
11,167
3,862
136
AMD, on the other hand, has a sizable net debt position and is burning money.

They are not burning a single $, so as usual you just demonstrated that you have some problems mastering basic accounting rules...

Other than that you should be cautious since flawed analysis can be taken at face value by some gullible people, you could induce people doing catastrophic operations, just remember that all the people that did listen to you and bought Intel stock in the last 10 months are almost all out of the money...

Other than that this article seems enginered by some cornered short sellers that need to create some panics to get their positions closed without too much losses...
 
Mar 10, 2006
11,715
2,012
126
They are not burning a single $, so as usual you just demonstrated that you have some problems mastering basic accounting rules...

Abwx, I have been and will continue to be civil to you in our discussions on these forums and I would ask that you strive to avoid personal attacks.

With that out of the way, here is AMD's most recent earnings report: http://ir.amd.com/mobile.view?c=74093&v=203&d=1&id=203607

AMD says cash and marketable securities was down $134 million and debt was up $56 million.

Are you sure that AMD isn't burning cash?
 
Last edited:

Abwx

Lifer
Apr 2, 2011
11,167
3,862
136
Abwx, I have been and will continue to be civil to you in our discussions on these forums and I would ask that you strive to avoid personal attacks.

These are not personal attacks, sorry that these are perceived so but you should be aware that this is a forum that is consulted by a lot of people, blank statements and non argumented points do nothing for one s credibility.

With that out of the way, here is AMD's most recent earnings report: http://ir.amd.com/mobile.view?c=74093&v=203&d=1&id=203607

AMD says cash and marketable securities was down $134 million and debt was up $56 million.

Are you sure that AMD isn't burning cash?

That was the point where i said that you didnt understand the underlying logic so i ll take the time to explain better since it seems that you didnt catch some elementary management rules that apply typicaly to firms like AMD.

Since they are working at break even level it is obvious that their cash is actualy 0, their cash amount is obtained by selling to banks negociable securities available at a given moment, thoses available securities are the debts owned by AMD over their customers like HP, Dell and so on and wich are at 3 months terms, that is, HP pay the CPU deliveries 3 months after actual shipping, of course AMD has not the mean to lend thoses CPus, hence the factoring of thoses debts to the banks in exchange of an interest.

On normal time when you have a cash reserve you wait for three months but with cash constrained firms it work like this, you will notice that the available cash is actualy the amount necessary to finance 3 months of activity, as such if AMD quarterly revenue decrease by 10% then the available cash will mechanicaly decrease in the same ratio, no cash was burned actualy since there was no cash from the start, and that this money is nothing else than the daily production cashed in real time thanks to the banks services...
 
Last edited:

386DX

Member
Feb 11, 2010
197
0
0
What a joke. Company like AMD does not go bankrupt. If things are hopeless, somebody will buy them for IP and talents.

Like this.

That is not necessarily true. Even if AMD has IP to buy out it may not be worth it because whoever buys them also buys their debt and obligations like pension. It would be cheaper to buy the IP after they file for bankruptcy. Whether you'd like to believe it or not the last few years have been troubling for AMD. Some things they have done like selling off the HQ and other properties then leasing it back is not a sign of a healthy company. It's a sign of desperation to make the numbers look good (immediate cash infux) at the cost of an ongoing expense. If you don't think a company like AMD can go bankrupt just take a look at Kodak.

AMD really needs to be successful with Zen they really do not have the resource to endure another bulldozer.
 

Lonyo

Lifer
Aug 10, 2002
21,939
6
81
They are not burning a single $, so as usual you just demonstrated that you have some problems mastering basic accounting rules...

Other than that you should be cautious since flawed analysis can be taken at face value by some gullible people, you could induce people doing catastrophic operations, just remember that all the people that did listen to you and bought Intel stock in the last 10 months are almost all out of the money...

Other than that this article seems enginered by some cornered short sellers that need to create some panics to get their positions closed without too much losses...

They made operating cashflow losses of $173m. $44m loss if you ignore all of the movements in balance sheet balances.

They are running at a cash and accounting loss and have been using debt to stay afloat for a long time now.
 

Abwx

Lifer
Apr 2, 2011
11,167
3,862
136
They made operating cashflow losses of $173m. $44m loss if you ignore all of the movements in balance sheet balances.
.

You sell 1000 cpus/quarter at 1m each and the customers pay thoses deliveries three months later, past a quarter you ll have 1bn out permanently as a constant debt due by the customers.

Now you can factor thoses debts at a bank that will buy them from day 1 and that will pay you 98.5% of the amount, the positive cash flow is because yourself you benefit from a 3 months payement term from GF while salaries are payed on a 30 days term, if revenue decrease the amount of daily revenue that you can factor at the bank will decrease accordingly since you cash is actualy (3 months revenues) - (3 months debt due to GF) - (2 month salaries), a quarter later you cash has reched your average quarterly revenue...

As such no cash is burned, AMD s cash is nothing else than the real time revenue cashed on real time, with a positive flow due to paying their own expenses 3 and 1 months later (debts due to other firms + salaries), so they are burning nothing, they cant have more cash than they had revenue from the last previous three months...
 

Lonyo

Lifer
Aug 10, 2002
21,939
6
81
I was referring to cash flow losses because accounting losses include other stuff. The fact is they are burning through cash. Factoring their receivables doesn't help them in the long run, and this article is talking about 2020.
Factor your receivables now, and in 3 months you're boned because you burned through that cash anyway. You didn't gain anything.

Net assets remain unchanged-ish whether you hold the balance as receivables or cash from a company health perspective.
They are using up cash currently.
They have a lot of debt due in 2019/2020.
Their revenues are going down, margins are not that good and they are trying to keep cutting costs.
They are making operating losses and running a cashflow deficit which is mostly being plugged by more debt.
 

grimpr

Golden Member
Aug 21, 2007
1,095
7
81
This opinion matters more than that laughable article.

Advanced Micro Devices Will Live To Fight Another Battle

"Summary

While the fundamentals of AMD are not getting better, its balance sheet at least remains stable.
From a liquidity point of view, the company will be tested several years down the road.
What this means is that investors might reconsider the stock after the current slide, because I think the risk-reward possibilities are currently in investors' favor."

http://seekingalpha.com/article/3199946-advanced-micro-devices-will-live-to-fight-another-battle
 
Mar 10, 2006
11,715
2,012
126
I was referring to cash flow losses because accounting losses include other stuff. The fact is they are burning through cash. Factoring their receivables doesn't help them in the long run, and this article is talking about 2020.
Factor your receivables now, and in 3 months you're boned because you burned through that cash anyway. You didn't gain anything.

Net assets remain unchanged-ish whether you hold the balance as receivables or cash from a company health perspective.
They are using up cash currently.
They have a lot of debt due in 2019/2020.
Their revenues are going down, margins are not that good and they are trying to keep cutting costs.
They are making operating losses and running a cashflow deficit which is mostly being plugged by more debt.

I didn't study the Kerrisdale report thoroughly yet, but I'd bet you the 2020 date was chosen precisely because AMD's debt starts becoming due in 2019.

AMD's challenge is to find a way to transform its business so that it can be consistently cash flow positive. I don't think this is impossible, but they are taking a serious risk with their current strategy of trying to compete head-on with NVIDIA in GPUs and Intel in high performance CPUs.

Only time will tell if the company ultimately succeeds, but it is trying to go after the major profit centers of two very well capitalized companies that have been executing well for years and will vigorously try to defend their current market positions.
 
Last edited:
Mar 10, 2006
11,715
2,012
126
Other than that this article seems enginered by some cornered short sellers that need to create some panics to get their positions closed without too much losses...

With all due respect, look at where AMD stock is trading. The only way a short seller would be underwater here is if he/she shorted at below $2.28.

Given that the stock has mostly traded above $2.28 over the last year, I don't think too many shorts are underwater at this point.
 

Lonyo

Lifer
Aug 10, 2002
21,939
6
81
This opinion matters more than that laughable article.

Advanced Micro Devices Will Live To Fight Another Battle

"Summary

While the fundamentals of AMD are not getting better, its balance sheet at least remains stable.
From a liquidity point of view, the company will be tested several years down the road.
What this means is that investors might reconsider the stock after the current slide, because I think the risk-reward possibilities are currently in investors' favor."

http://seekingalpha.com/article/3199946-advanced-micro-devices-will-live-to-fight-another-battle

That article talks about them having specific goals and because they have goals they will be fine.
It neglects to talk about their historic ability to meet such goals.
 

Shehriazad

Senior member
Nov 3, 2014
555
2
46
If Zen OR RX 400 end up being only close to being successful (aka they gain back AMD market share of 3%-7%) then AMD isn't gonna go broke anytime soon.


If RX400 AND Zen fails (mainly in server, I guess) then we can talk about AMD having to worry lots.
 

Sureshot324

Diamond Member
Feb 4, 2003
3,370
0
71
AMD is competing in two markets (gpu and x86 cpu) where they only have one competitor and there is plenty of room for two. They really don't need to outdo their competition to make a profit. If Zen is halfway decent they'll be ok.
 
Mar 10, 2006
11,715
2,012
126
AMD is competing in two markets (gpu and x86 cpu) where they only have one competitor and there is plenty of room for two. They really don't need to outdo their competition to make a profit. If Zen is halfway decent they'll be ok.

Then why hasn't AMD been making a profit with its current products?
 

Abwx

Lifer
Apr 2, 2011
11,167
3,862
136
Then why hasn't AMD been making a profit with its current products?

Contra revenue did incure 10-15 millions chips lost sales at 30$/chip and as a result 100-157m margin are also lost, that s 3 points of gross margin, and this despite being very competitive in this segment with the best product in town....

It s not like you are not pointing their lacks in other areas, so if they cant sell the very products that are competitive due to such practices would you expect them to be in a safe financial situation..?. Frankly.?.

FTR 46 millions chips is 10% of the aggregated PC + w8 tablets + Android tablets/netbboks markets, at 30$/chip this would result in 1.5bn revenue...
 

krumme

Diamond Member
Oct 9, 2009
5,956
1,595
136
How this isn't in politics and news instead of CPUs is beyond me.

Each week this is a subject in this forum

Some people might want to think of what have kept amd alive until now - and will do until ...well it seems 2020 in this week.

There is no more oil at that time the analyst recons i presume.

Yes politics and news is perhaps the right forum then
 

Abwx

Lifer
Apr 2, 2011
11,167
3,862
136
Yes politics and news is perhaps the right forum then

Even at P&N that would be considered OT, unless the forum is rebadged Psychology & Negativity of course.

I mean given the posters those threads seems to irresistibly attract and who are mainly people neither interested in the firm nor in its products for anything else than being a recipient for hate spills, this just left me wondering if it s not some regularly and mind shared organised ritual as a group therapy....
 

lefty2

Senior member
May 15, 2013
240
9
81
we see ADM at a point of no return
ADM?? How are we ment to take this report seriously, if they don't even bother proof-reading the headline of their report?
 

mrmt

Diamond Member
Aug 18, 2012
3,974
0
76
This opinion matters more than that laughable article.

Advanced Micro Devices Will Live To Fight Another Battle

"Summary

While the fundamentals of AMD are not getting better, its balance sheet at least remains stable.
From a liquidity point of view, the company will be tested several years down the road.
What this means is that investors might reconsider the stock after the current slide, because I think the risk-reward possibilities are currently in investors' favor."

AMD balance sheet is >>not<< stable.
 
sale-70-410-exam    | Exam-200-125-pdf    | we-sale-70-410-exam    | hot-sale-70-410-exam    | Latest-exam-700-603-Dumps    | Dumps-98-363-exams-date    | Certs-200-125-date    | Dumps-300-075-exams-date    | hot-sale-book-C8010-726-book    | Hot-Sale-200-310-Exam    | Exam-Description-200-310-dumps?    | hot-sale-book-200-125-book    | Latest-Updated-300-209-Exam    | Dumps-210-260-exams-date    | Download-200-125-Exam-PDF    | Exam-Description-300-101-dumps    | Certs-300-101-date    | Hot-Sale-300-075-Exam    | Latest-exam-200-125-Dumps    | Exam-Description-200-125-dumps    | Latest-Updated-300-075-Exam    | hot-sale-book-210-260-book    | Dumps-200-901-exams-date    | Certs-200-901-date    | Latest-exam-1Z0-062-Dumps    | Hot-Sale-1Z0-062-Exam    | Certs-CSSLP-date    | 100%-Pass-70-383-Exams    | Latest-JN0-360-real-exam-questions    | 100%-Pass-4A0-100-Real-Exam-Questions    | Dumps-300-135-exams-date    | Passed-200-105-Tech-Exams    | Latest-Updated-200-310-Exam    | Download-300-070-Exam-PDF    | Hot-Sale-JN0-360-Exam    | 100%-Pass-JN0-360-Exams    | 100%-Pass-JN0-360-Real-Exam-Questions    | Dumps-JN0-360-exams-date    | Exam-Description-1Z0-876-dumps    | Latest-exam-1Z0-876-Dumps    | Dumps-HPE0-Y53-exams-date    | 2017-Latest-HPE0-Y53-Exam    | 100%-Pass-HPE0-Y53-Real-Exam-Questions    | Pass-4A0-100-Exam    | Latest-4A0-100-Questions    | Dumps-98-365-exams-date    | 2017-Latest-98-365-Exam    | 100%-Pass-VCS-254-Exams    | 2017-Latest-VCS-273-Exam    | Dumps-200-355-exams-date    | 2017-Latest-300-320-Exam    | Pass-300-101-Exam    | 100%-Pass-300-115-Exams    |
http://www.portvapes.co.uk/    | http://www.portvapes.co.uk/    |