Alabama loss = Why Boise State should not get a shot

[Marinski]

anybody else think trent richardson is better than ingram?

 

[sactoking]

maybe the SEC isnt the best conference. No better than Pac-10

According to the current Sagarin conf rankings the Pac-10 is #1 and SEC is #2. Pac-10 is about 5 points higher than the SEC.

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/news/story?id=5673225

This ESPN article notes that Boise is likely to open the official BCS ranking at #1. Ohio State, which is #1 in both polls, projects to open at #5.

 

[weadjust]

LSU freek has some excellent farks from the SEC action this weekend. Don't know how to embed gif files on this board. Links

Saban vs Spurrier
http://cdn2.sbnation.com/imported_assets/564331/spurriercocktripssaban.gif
Myer vs Miles
http://cdn3.sbnation.com/imported_assets/564271/lesmilesgambler.gif

 

[roguerower]

The ACC is pretty darn bad this year.

Love my Hokies, but I don't think they're good enough to run the conference table, even with this bad ACC. Defense just isn't what it has been.

They're a #15-20ish team. A good team, sure, but if that's the only game Boise is hanging their hat on...

I agree. Other than my uncalled for outburst after the JMU game, I have tried to watch every one of their games. Being in Texas and Time Warner not letting me watch ESPN3 is a major ball buster when it comes to watching them play. But looking at the stats, it just seems that the magic that was supposed to happen this year just isn't there.

The defense is very young and will hopefully get better as the season progress, but GT & Miami are going to be tough opponents as always. The offense is once again a dud. The terrible RB duo has been once again broken up by injuries and our WR couldn't catch a ball even if they had super glue on their hands. It seems that Tyrod is the only one capable of producing, but for how long?

I predict that if they stay the course, they'll make it to the ACC Championship v. FSU, VT ranked in the high teens (#17-19), FSU being #11-13. I don't know if they'll have enough to get them through FSU, one can only hope.

Something isn't clicking this year. The defense has always been able to help out our weak offense but there isn't anything there this year. Hopefully things will get shaken up for next season, but I'm not holding my breath. There needs to be some major recruiting changes. Maybe stop recruiting from the Chesapeake area where all the recruits have to run away from the cops, therefore being good at running?

Back to the OP topic, while I think that Boise should have a shot at the BCS NC if they go undefeated, I just don't see them having that difficult of a season to warrant it. They may rack up impressive numbers and wins, but they don't play a usual BCS schedule where you're guaranteed to play 2-5 Top 25 teams in a season, the majority being In-Conference games.

They should have jumped to the Pac-10 when all the reshuffling was going down.

In the end, it's college football. Anything can happen Thursday and Saturday. Look at Texas. The 2005 National Champions aren't even ranked now. Teams rise and fall like the tide.

 

[Train]

lol those were funny.

I gotta admit, it was serious balls the way they took the lead against Florida.

But LSU has had luck on their side so far, had not Tenn had an extra man on the field, that bad snap would have been the end of the game.

And had that fake FG been ruled a forward pass on the field, it would not have been overturned on the review.

 

[juiio]

According to Sagarins' ratings (I know its just one guy but good as a reference)

Northwestern 62
Purdue 64
Indiana 98
Minnesota 136

Utah State 118
San Jose State 129
New Mex State 175

While the Big 10 bottom feeders are slightly better than the WAC bottom feeders, all the bottom feeders are still garbage. There isn't a whole lot of difference between a team that you would beat 99% of the time and a team that you would beat 99.5% of the time. For a top five team, the difference between playing the 90th best team and the 150th best team is insignificant.

 

[Tim]

I hate the SEC.

Why? We love you, and everyone else. Don't be a hater.

 

[erikistired]

i wonder how the pac-10 loses the only good team, and therefore has the illusion of being better makes it improved over another, quite obviously stronger conference. you would think losing your only good team would make you weaker. i guess since one team isn't rolling the whole conference now, and the other teams equally suck they just look better, even if the truth is they all still suck.

 

[roguerower]

i wonder how the pac-10 loses the only good team, and therefore has the illusion of being better makes it improved over another, quite obviously stronger conference. you would think losing your only good team would make you weaker. i guess since one team isn't rolling the whole conference now, and the other teams equally suck they just look better, even if the truth is they all still suck.

*Waves hand*

This is not the conference you are looking for...

 

[sactoking]

i wonder how the pac-10 loses the only good team, and therefore has the illusion of being better makes it improved over another, quite obviously stronger conference. you would think losing your only good team would make you weaker. i guess since one team isn't rolling the whole conference now, and the other teams equally suck they just look better, even if the truth is they all still suck.

What do you base that on? Do you have anything other than in-conference games?

The reason I ask is the SEC fans typically are very subject to "silo bias". This means that they look at their in-conference schedule as proof of something. This is very foolish. What you see with the current voting system is a bunch of unfounded bias and poll "stickiness". If #3 beats #8, #8 tends not to fall very far; after all, the team they lost to was #3. Early on in the season, when few games have been played, that #3 ranking isn't based on much other than each voters bias. If the 12 SEC teams were ranked preseason 1-12 in the Coaches Poll, SEC teams wouldn't move from the top-25 quickly since the rankings are sticky. Conversely, if you put the Pac-10 teams at 1-10, you'd see a bunch of Pac-10 teams in the top-25 all year. It's a self-fulfilling prophecy to a great degree. So throw out in-conference games.

Let's look at out of conference. Really, that should be pretty telling. If there is a self-fulfilling prophecy of success or failure based on conference bias, then inter-conference play should clear that up.

The SEC is currently 27-5 in non-conference play this year (84.375%). The Pac-10 is 21-9 (70%). The SEC is clearly better, right? Maybe not.

This year the SEC plays a total of 11 games against 1-AA opponents. The Pac-10 plays 5. Adjusting for league size and non-conference game allotment, the Pac-10 would project to play 8 given the SEC parameters. The SEC loads up on 1-AA cupcakes more frequently then the Pac-10.

With a slate of 48 non-conference games this year, the SEC plays a grand total of 3 against (currently) ranked teams: Florida plays against #16/17 Florida State, LSU beat #25 West Virginia, and Tennessee lost to #2 Oregon.

With a slate of 30 non-conference games this year, the Pac-10 plays a grand total of 7 against (currently) ranked teams: Arizona beat #15/14 Iowa, Arizona State lost to #18/16 Wisconsin, Berkeley lost to #19/21 Nevada, Oregon State lost to #4/5 TCU and lost to #3 Boise State, Washington lost to #5/4 Nebraska, and Washington State lost to 20/18 Oklahoma State.

Both conferences currently only have 1 win against ranked teams. The Pac-10 has won the only Pac-10/SEC matchup of the year.

Throwing out the 1-AA games, does either conference have an edge in quality non-ranked opponents? Not really. SEC teams scheduled the likes of Duke, Louisiana-Monroe (3 times!), Louisiana-Lafayette (twice), UAB (twice), Troy and Tulane. Pac-10 teams scheduled the likes of Toledo, Citadel, Syracuse, and Southern Methodist. Both conferences played some 1-A stinkers.

To say that the SEC is clearly superior is flawed, such statements are usually based on conference play which is circular logic. In out of conference play the Pac-10 is getting spanked vs ranked teams, but at least they are actually scheduling them. Both conferences have 1 ranked OOC win and the Pac-10 has won the only Pac-10/SEC game of the year. If anything the Pac-10 has an edge in conference strength so far this year.

 

[Gibsons]

anybody else think trent richardson is better than ingram?

I've been saying that since last year. I think Ingram is really good, but overhyped.

 

[smitbret]

I agree. Other than my uncalled for outburst after the JMU game, I have tried to watch every one of their games. Being in Texas and Time Warner not letting me watch ESPN3 is a major ball buster when it comes to watching them play. But looking at the stats, it just seems that the magic that was supposed to happen this year just isn't there.

The defense is very young and will hopefully get better as the season progress, but GT & Miami are going to be tough opponents as always. The offense is once again a dud. The terrible RB duo has been once again broken up by injuries and our WR couldn't catch a ball even if they had super glue on their hands. It seems that Tyrod is the only one capable of producing, but for how long?

I predict that if they stay the course, they'll make it to the ACC Championship v. FSU, VT ranked in the high teens (#17-19), FSU being #11-13. I don't know if they'll have enough to get them through FSU, one can only hope.

Something isn't clicking this year. The defense has always been able to help out our weak offense but there isn't anything there this year. Hopefully things will get shaken up for next season, but I'm not holding my breath. There needs to be some major recruiting changes. Maybe stop recruiting from the Chesapeake area where all the recruits have to run away from the cops, therefore being good at running?

Back to the OP topic, while I think that Boise should have a shot at the BCS NC if they go undefeated, I just don't see them having that difficult of a season to warrant it. They may rack up impressive numbers and wins, but they don't play a usual BCS schedule where you're guaranteed to play 2-5 Top 25 teams in a season, the majority being In-Conference games.

They should have jumped to the Pac-10 when all the reshuffling was going down.

In the end, it's college football. Anything can happen Thursday and Saturday. Look at Texas. The 2005 National Champions aren't even ranked now. Teams rise and fall like the tide.

You're just being too nice so you don't sound like a homer. Name me ten teams that are better than V Tech this year.....

1 - Oregon
2 - Ohio State
3 - Nebraska
4 - TCU
5 - Boise State
6 - Alabama
7 - ?
8 - ?
9 - ?
10 - ?

Florida St? Utah? Michigan St? Northwestern? Iowa? LSU? South Carolina? Arizona? Auburn? None of these teams are any more impressive or more talented than V Tech.

 

[smitbret]

I've been saying that since last year. I think Ingram is really good, but overhyped.

They're different backs. It's like comparing Barry Sanders to Emmett Smith. Both very good, but in third and 2, I'll take Ingram over Richardson 10 times out of 10.

 

[Gibsons]

LSU freek has some excellent farks from the SEC action this weekend. Don't know how to embed gif files on this board. Links

Saban vs Spurrier
http://cdn2.sbnation.com/imported_assets/564331/spurriercocktripssaban.gif
Myer vs Miles
http://cdn3.sbnation.com/imported_assets/564271/lesmilesgambler.gif

The first one's good. Dunno how many here would spot Finebaum in it though.

The second one - I'm 99% he took that from one of the Trinity movies, which makes it awesome.

 

[LikeLinus]

Both conferences currently only have 1 win against ranked teams. The Pac-10 has won the only Pac-10/SEC matchup of the year.

WTF are you talking about?

(21)LSU 30 vs. (18)North Carolina 24
(24) South Carolina 17 vs. (22) Georgia 6
(1) Alabama 24 vs. (18) Penn St. 3
(1) Alabama 24 vs. (10) Arkansas 20
(12) South Carolina vs. (17) Auburn 35
(15) LSU 20 vs. (22) West Virginia 14
(19) South Carolina 35 vs.(1) Alabama 21
(12) LSU 33 vs. (14) Florida 29
(1) Alabama 31 vs. (7) Florida 6

The SEC has played NINE games where both opponent was ranked overall. If you remove the SEC vs. SEC games, the SEC has played THREE games against OOC ranked opponents.

North Carolina, Penn St. and West Virginia.

 

[sactoking]

WTF are you talking about?

(21)LSU 30 vs. (18)North Carolina 24
(24) South Carolina 17 vs. (22) Georgia 6
(1) Alabama 24 vs. (18) Penn St. 3
(1) Alabama 24 vs. (10) Arkansas 20
(12) South Carolina vs. (17) Auburn 35
(15) LSU 20 vs. (22) West Virginia 14
(19) South Carolina 35 vs.(1) Alabama 21
(12) LSU 33 vs. (14) Florida 29
(1) Alabama 31 vs. (7) Florida 6

The SEC has played NINE games where both opponent was ranked overall. If you remove the SEC vs. SEC games, the SEC has played THREE games against ranked opponents.

North Carolina, Penn St. and West Virginia.

Reading comprehension fail; removing the SEC/SEC games is the whole point. I also removed the Pac-10/Pac-10 games. That's because you can't compare Group A to Group B if you only use measurements inside each given group.

Also, the SEC has played TWO games against currently ranked opponents, which is what I've already stated: West Virginia and Oregon. North Carolina and Penn State? Please point out where each of those teams are in the top-25. What? They were ranked at the time of the games but not now? Huh, I didn't know that being ranked in weeks 1-5 and then dropping out entitled a team to something. Oh, that's right, it doesn't. What matters is what's happening NOW.

 

[Tim]

The only reason people are hating on the SEC is because of the recent success of the teams in the conference.

In sports, there are always people who just hate winners.

Have a great day!

 

[LikeLinus]

Reading comprehension fail; removing the SEC/SEC games is the whole point. I also removed the Pac-10/Pac-10 games. That's because you can't compare Group A to Group B if you only use measurements inside each given group.

Also, the SEC has played TWO games against currently ranked opponents, which is what I've already stated: West Virginia and Oregon. North Carolina and Penn State? Please point out where each of those teams are in the top-25. What? They were ranked at the time of the games but not now? Huh, I didn't know that being ranked in weeks 1-5 and then dropping out entitled a team to something. Oh, that's right, it doesn't. What matters is what's happening NOW.

Actually it does. Go look at any sports site and they list the ranking at the time of the game. They don't go back and change the rankings/ You don't go back and say that the gators lost to #8 Alabama. They lost to #1 Alabama. Also if you watch any sports shows, they talk about "Wins over ranked teams", which they include ANY team they played WHILE they were ranked, NOT what the other team is ranked now. The team was ranked WHEN THEY PLAYED.

SEC has played four ranked OOC teams and won all three. Learn a little about college football and come back to us.

I was wrong because I didn't actually include Oregon. Oregon was ranked. So the SEC is 3-1 against ranked teams this year.

But the fact remains that they've played a shitload of ranked teams against ranked teams. You cannot discount that just because you want to. The sheer fact that the SEC has so many ranked teams and has won 5 straight National Championships should tell you something.

 

[sactoking]

Actually it does. Go look at any sports site and they list the ranking at the time of the game. They don't go back and change the rankings/ You don't go back and say that the gators lost to #8 Alabama. They lost to #1 Alabama. Also if you watch any sports shows, they talk about "Wins over ranked teams", which they include ANY team they played WHILE they were ranked, NOT what the other team is ranked now. The team was ranked WHEN THEY PLAYED.

SEC has played four ranked OOC teams and won all three. Learn a little about college football and come back to us.

I was wrong because I didn't actually include Oregon. Oregon was ranked. So the SEC is 3-1 against ranked teams this year.

But the fact remains that they've played a shitload of ranked teams against ranked teams. You cannot discount that just because you want to. The sheer fact that the SEC has so many ranked teams and has won 5 straight National Championships should tell you something.

The fact that the SEC has "so many ranked teams" says nothing because of silo bias. The fact that an SEC team has won the National Championship from 2005-2009 tells me that the National Champion came from the SEC for 5 straight years; it doesn't mean much for 2010.

As far as rankings at the time the game was played go, again they're irrelevant. Penn State is currently UNRANKED. It doesn't matter if they were as high as #14 in the preseason polls. A single game had not been played at that point. Once games were played Penn State lost 3 of them and dropped out of the rankings. Beating a 3-3 Penn State team is no accomplishment.

It's the same argument used above in the Alabama-Boise discussion. VaTech was ranked as high as #6 when they lost to Boise. Va Tech is now 3-2 and people were saying that Boise has no quality wins because Va Teach dropped from the rankings.

So, current ranking is ok to elevate Alabama (an SEC team) above Boise but isn't ok when used to elevate the Pac-10 over the SEC? Hypocrisy much, SEC fans?

At least I'm consistent, I analyzed Alabama/Boise under the current situation, just like I am for SEC/Pac-10. Currently the SEC and Pac-10 each have 1 win against an OOC ranked opponent and the Pac-10 has played 7 games against current ranked opponents and the SEC has played 2.

 

[juiio]

Actually it does. Go look at any sports site and they list the ranking at the time of the game. They don't go back and change the rankings/ You don't go back and say that the gators lost to #8 Alabama. They lost to #1 Alabama. Also if you watch any sports shows, they talk about "Wins over ranked teams", which they include ANY team they played WHILE they were ranked, NOT what the other team is ranked now. The team was ranked WHEN THEY PLAYED.

The point of looking at wins versus ranked teams is to see how many victories teams have over other good teams. If a team is shown to be garbage, then a win over that team was not a big deal, no matter where the team was ranked in preseason polls. Inversely, if you beat an unranked team in week one, and then the team you beat rolls off 11 straight wins, wins a BCS game, and finishes #2 in the nation, your win over that team was quality, even if they weren't ranked at the time.

If you (or anyone else) is only looking at rankings at the time of the game (or far worse, only looking at preseason rankings) instead of looking at the whole picture, they're using very flawed logic.

 

[LikeLinus]

The point of looking at wins versus ranked teams is to see how many victories teams have over other good teams. If a team is shown to be garbage, then a win over that team was not a big deal, no matter where the team was ranked in preseason polls. Inversely, if you beat an unranked team in week one, and then the team you beat rolls off 11 straight wins, wins a BCS game, and finishes #2 in the nation, your win over that team was quality, even if they weren't ranked at the time.

If you (or anyone else) is only looking at rankings at the time of the game (or far worse, only looking at preseason rankings) instead of looking at the whole picture, they're using very flawed logic.

No one is only looking at the wins vs ranked opponent, but you can't "change history" by saying the team wasn't ranked. SEC is 3-1 against OOC teams. Sure, maybe the teams are not currently ranked, but the Pac-10 has played only 1 team against a ranked opponent. You'd have to look at Strength of Schedule team by team to see who played the better teams if you want to not worry about rankings.

Either way, Pac-10 is not as strong overall as the SEC. There's nothing you can say to change my mind.

The flip side to the whole "pre-season polls don't matter, A single game had not been played at that point", is also the primary reason why the Ducks are ranked as high as they are. They've played one ranked opponent and the other opponents are weak so far. Are they really #2? Or they lucky they were ranked well in the pre-season polls and played cupcakes so far and moved up due to other teams losing. So it works both ways. Are they really better than Alabama that has gone 3-1 vs. ranked opponents? They still have 2 more ranked games, same as Oregon. So the one loss looks better than someone like Oregon because Oregon plays a weaker schedule and doesn't have to play 4 ranked teams in 5 weeks..

Something to think about.

 

[roguerower]

You're just being too nice so you don't sound like a homer. Name me ten teams that are better than V Tech this year.....

1 - Oregon
2 - Ohio State
3 - Nebraska
4 - TCU
5 - Boise State
6 - Alabama
7 - ?
8 - ?
9 - ?
10 - ?

Florida St? Utah? Michigan St? Northwestern? Iowa? LSU? South Carolina? Arizona? Auburn? None of these teams are any more impressive or more talented than V Tech.

Oh, I agree, VT is full of talent. I mean, jesus, between Evans & Williams there should have been enough talent to put them in the NC no problem. Having Tyrod at QB definitely didn't hurt.

It's that for some reason, they just can't seem to take that talent and transform it into a successful season. Yes, they've won 10+ games the last 4 seasons, but they've always lost the one that knocks them out of contention, and it's usually the BIG game of the season. Miami, LSU, Boston College, Georgia Tech, Bama, Boise, all teams that we SHOULD have beaten, but we can't.

Unfortunately, it's a schedule issue. They may be better than SoCal, Mich State, Utah, Fl. State, but we'll never know because they don't play. There just aren't enough games in the season.

We're out of the top 25 now because Boise beat us twice. There's no reason we should have lost to JMU, but we did. Now we gotta crawl out of our hole. Always have and always will. Just wish that one of these seasons we didn't have to.

 

[sactoking]

No one is only looking at the wins vs ranked opponent, but you can't "change history" by saying the team wasn't ranked. SEC is 3-1 against OOC teams. Sure, maybe the teams are not currently ranked, but the Pac-10 has played only 1 team against a ranked opponent. You'd have to look at Strength of Schedule team by team to see who played the better teams if you want to not worry about rankings.

Either way, Pac-10 is not as strong overall as the SEC. There's nothing you can say to change my mind.

The flip side to the whole "pre-season polls don't matter, A single game had not been played at that point", is also the primary reason why the Ducks are ranked as high as they are. They've played one ranked opponent and the other opponents are weak so far. Are they really #2? Or they lucky they were ranked well in the pre-season polls and played cupcakes so far and moved up due to other teams losing. So it works both ways. Are they really better than Alabama that has gone 3-1 vs. ranked opponents? They still have 2 more ranked games, same as Oregon. So the one loss looks better than someone like Oregon because Oregon plays a weaker schedule and doesn't have to play 4 ranked teams in 5 weeks..

Something to think about.

The analysis isn't changing history, it's ignoring irrelevant history. Does it matter that Alabama was #1 in week 5 if they end up #10 and go to the Motel 6 Semen Stained Comforter Bowl? Last year Oklahoma State was ranked in week 6 and finished unranked. Same for Kansas, Auburn, Oklahoma, South Florida, and Missouri. Should Cincinnati be proud that they beat a FIVE loss USF team? A team's ranking when the game happened is no more relevant than who is leading the marathon after 5 miles.

 

[Tim]

snip... LSU, all teams that we SHOULD have beaten, but we can't...snip

Your team had no chance in hell to win that game against LSU in 07. "SHOULD have beaten", riiiiiiight They whipped your arses up and down the feild all game long and made it look easy.

 

[roguerower]

Your team had no chance in hell to win that game against LSU in 07. "SHOULD have beaten", riiiiiiight They whipped your arses up and down the feild all game long and made it look easy.

Yes, good job, you managed to pick the one team out of that list. I agree, the VT campus as a whole was dreading that game.