AMD 2013 Q1 Earnings on Thursday - lets see how the numbers are going to be...

[mrmt]

Intel : "Revenue will be down 8% in Q2"
AMD : "Revenue will be up 2% in Q2"

Why people can't bother checking before posting?

Intel is expecting a 2.3% increase, +- 3.8%

 

[mrmt]

It is bad, but honestly I expected worse (and so did the street). Really, not much has changed. The real test will be the second half of the year. It is then that AMD is projecting to be back in the black (quarterly) and when a lot of their new projects should be out. If they can't start turning profits by year's end, they really have nothing left in their bag o' tricks to turn them around.

They are not expecting going back to black, they are expecting positive free cash flow, which is a different thing. The 1.3 billion in revenues and break even in Q313 disappeared from their financial statements.

They are still bleeding money, but it's not a hemorrhage anymore.

 

[Imouto]

Given the times OEMs surely work with minimal inventories , PC shipped in Q1 have CPUs that were delivered mostly during the same quarter.

OEMs don't have supply contracts? I don't think they operate like that.

 

[Qianglong]

So at this rate, how long will their cash last? And I guess if they run out of cash...its time to get a loan from the Saudis or file Chapter 11?

 

[Phynaz]

Oh for pity's sake that's an idiotic comment. We've known for months that this was going to happen.

Really, you knew for months their CPU sales would be down by 38%.

And yet you never posted so in this thread.

 

[mrmt]

So at this rate, how long will their cash last? And I guess if they run out of cash...its time to get a loan from the Saudis or file Chapter 11?

They can limp until Q114-Q214 with current cash reserves and losing some 100 million per quarter. If they don't start generating money by Q413, they will have to sell assets.

 

[SiliconWars]

Really, you knew for months their CPU sales would be down by 38%.

In which of your 4 post history here did you ever say so?

Did you think they would sell enough CPU'S in Q1 to reverse the losses of the past 6 months? Guess what they'll be down nearly 38% next quarter as well, because that's around when the rot set in last year. AMD has restructured for selling this amount of CPU's, they were never going to be at Q1 2012's sales numbers.

 

[Hitman928]

They are not expecting going back to black, they are expecting positive free cash flow, which is a different thing. The 1.3 billion in revenues and break even in Q313 disappeared from their financial statements.

They are still bleeding money, but it's not a hemorrhage anymore.

Ah, didn't realize that. That's disappointing. I guess I'll need to listen to this conference call to get some more details.

 

[georgec84]

Man they are hurting...

 

[Phynaz]

Did you think they would sell enough CPU'S in Q1 to reverse the losses of the past 6 months? Guess what they'll be down nearly 38% next quarter as well, because that's around when the rot set in last year. AMD has restructured for selling this amount of CPU's, they were never going to be at Q1 2012's sales numbers.

I guess I didn't know I posted about the last 6 months loses and how they were supposed to make up for that. Could you show me where I said so?

By your math you are expecting revenue this quarter of ~$900M. And you somehow think they can survive on that when AMD themselves say their restructuring is designed to make them profitable at $1.3B.

Somehow I think AMD has just a wee bit more of a clue about their financial operations than you appear to have.

You're getting cranky. Go have a Snickers before this escalates to me having to hand out infractions :|
-ViRGE

 

[Qianglong]

One also has to see if they exceeded expectation largely through increased sales OR the cost savings associated with the 15% restructuring.....

 

[SiliconWars]

I guess I didn't know I posted about the last 6 months loses and how they were supposed to make up for that. Could you show me where I said so?

By your math you are expecting revenue this quarter of ~$900M. And you somehow think they can survive on that when AMD themselves say their restructuring is designed to make them profitable at $1.3B.

No I'm expecting revenue this quarter of ~$1.1 Billion like they said it would be. That means there will be another big YoY drop in sales in Q2, how much exactly I don't know because I didn't work it out. It doesn't matter, the company has restructured for this amount of sales.

Somehow I think AMD has just a wee bit more of a clue about their financial operations than you appear to have.

If you just read what they said Q1 revenue would be you'd figure it out fine. Results were better than expected and that's a long way from what you seem to think they are.

Rory at Q4 conference call said for the first quarter of 2013, AMD expects revenue to decrease 9% sequentially plus or minus 3% so they hit the top end of their target.

 

[inf64]

Looks like AMD is also planning some big launch in micro server department, Koyto being the key codename. It should come both as APU and CPU variant. It's either Kabini/Temash derivative or derived from whatever "APU" is in Sony's next gen console. Max. TDP is 11W (for top parts) and introduction date is "mid 2013".

 

[happysmiles]

I don't think they're going to post positive revenue until 2014.
PS4/Xbox Next will help but they absolutely need to get their apus into good tablets and ultrathins instead of half arse 15.6" cheapos.

 

[inf64]

I don't think they're going to post positive revenue until 2014.
PS4/Xbox Next will help but they absolutely need to get their apus into good tablets and ultrathins instead of half arse 15.6" cheapos.

Temash is perfect chip for tablets .

 

[SiliconWars]

Temash is perfect chip for tablets .

For 10 inch and above maybe but they need something for the smaller tablets as well. I can see the new Nexus 7 selling like hotcakes.

 

[inf64]

For 10 inch and above maybe but they need something for the smaller tablets as well. I can see the new Nexus 7 selling like hotcakes.

They will have that covered too, next year . ARM based AMD designed APU with GCN2

 

[Hitman928]

They will have that covered too, next year . ARM based AMD designed APU with GCN2

Wishful thinking or do you have some information on this?

 

[inf64]

Wishful thinking or do you have some information on this?

It's on the roadmap man, AMD is designing arm based "APU" opteron chip. Do you really think they will design that thing only to use it for opteron brand? Just like they will soon use Kabini for micro server segment (APU) , they will use the arm based design for other segments if they reach the design goals.

 

[mrmt]

It's on the roadmap man, AMD is designing arm based "APU" opteron chip. Do you really think they will design that thing only to use it for opteron brand? Just like they will soon use Kabini for micro server segment (APU) , they will use the arm based design for other segments if they reach the design goals.

Sure, AMD vanilla ARM chips will be a lot better than Apple's, NVDA and others 20nm chips. I can see oems queueing in GLF door to get orders for tablets.

 

[Imouto]

Sure, AMD vanilla ARM chips will be a lot better than Apple's, NVDA and others 20nm chips. I can see oems queueing in GLF door to get orders for tablets.

Weren't Nvidia and AMD out of TSMC's 20 nm? I don't think Nvidia will use their 20nm share to make Tegras anyway.

 

[Hitman928]

It's on the roadmap man, AMD is designing arm based "APU" opteron chip. Do you really think they will design that thing only to use it for opteron brand? Just like they will soon use Kabini for micro server segment (APU) , they will use the arm based design for other segments if they reach the design goals.

Speculation (especially the next year part). I think eventually AMD might look into making ARM apu's for mobile, but that market is even more competitive than their current markets. Look at tegra, Nvidia's lost money for three years trying to get that line going and they have just as much graphics prowess as AMD does. I don't think AMD can risk a venture into such a competitive market right now with pretty much guaranteed losses (initially). They need to re-establish a profitable foundation first with maybe slight outreach to new markets that aren't so competitive (e.g. ARM servers).

 

[Hitman928]

Weren't Nvidia and AMD out of TSMC's 20 nm? I don't think Nvidia will use their 20nm share to make Tegras anyway.

From what I've heard, 20nm is going to be expensive and not worth it for many companies. I think a lot are planning on skipping 20nm and holding out for the next node.

 

[blckgrffn]

From what I've heard, 20nm is going to be expensive and not worth it for many companies. I think a lot are planning on skipping 20nm and holding out for the next node.

I would expect that some very nice supercomputer GPU's are probably high enough margin to make it worthwhile....

 

[Hitman928]

I would expect that some very nice supercomputer GPU's are probably high enough margin to make it worthwhile....

Notice, I didn't say all. Each company will make their own analysis and decide if it makes sense for their product(s).