AMD CEO talks of long-term turnaround

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Fjodor2001

Diamond Member
Feb 6, 2010
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Nobody knows. Some will take it at face value and some will see it as cherry picking some performance scenarios where it does.

The truth will probably be somewhere in the middle.

Yes, I guess you're right. But that would mean SB to IB level of ST performance (i.e. in-between Nahalem and Haswell).

If that is the case, an 8 core Zen will be close to Intel mainstream 4 core CPUs in ST performance, and much better in MT performance. I think that would be a very nice product, and I don't see why some people keep bashing it in under those assumptions.
 

Phynaz

Lifer
Mar 13, 2006
10,140
819
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I'm not watching out for you, I'm calling you out for misbehaviour. Tone it down son.

Your sarcasm detector broken?

Anyway, if you feel I have broken the forum rules, please use the report post button. It's the red triangle in the lower left of each post.
 
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mrmt

Diamond Member
Aug 18, 2012
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Well, most people on the forum has put Zen estimates at SB to Haswell performance level based on that info. So I think saying it's at Nahalem performance level mandates an explanation, since it deviates from that.
AMD usual fail coefficient.
 

Jovec

Senior member
Feb 24, 2008
579
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Yes, I guess you're right. But that would mean SB to IB level of ST performance (i.e. in-between Nahalem and Haswell).

If that is the case, an 8 core Zen will be close to Intel mainstream 4 core CPUs in ST performance, and much better in MT performance. I think that would be a very nice product, and I don't see why some people keep bashing it in under those assumptions.


HT is getting wider. HW HT isn't P4 HT. The HT vs CMT debate is going to be semantic one, not a practical one. Intel can widen their virtual cores are much as they want. AMD still needs to prove it can deliver high IPC cores.

IOW, AMD's competitiveness in MT workloads is only as close as Intel allows. If Zen delivers a 4m/8t high IPC design, Intel has numerous options to respond, including price, core cont, and wider HT cores.
 

Fjodor2001

Diamond Member
Feb 6, 2010
3,953
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IOW, AMD's competitiveness in MT workloads is only as close as Intel allows. If Zen delivers a 4m/8t high IPC design, Intel has numerous options to respond, including price, core cont, and wider HT cores.
Perhaps they could, but they won't. Because it would eat into Intel's high profit server segment, and it would also eat into Intel's high margins in the desktop segment.

PS. Also note that Zen is not a Module based design like Bulldozer. So Zen will not be 4M/8T, but 4C/8T or 8C/16T.
 
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Aug 11, 2008
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Fight nice. Anyway, AMD's 40% claimed IPC improvement is based on theoretical calculations, even assuming they can reach it, what counts is IPC x clockspeed, so even AMD themselves is making no claim about final performance, unless someone can point out someplace where they officially made a claim as to what the clockspeed will be.

But I certainly think it is justifiable to take any unproven claim from any manufacturer with skepticism until final benchmarks are shown. In fact, I am not even convinced we will see any kind of reasonable product availability until 2017.
 

mrmt

Diamond Member
Aug 18, 2012
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Perhaps they could, but they won't. Because it would eat into Intel's high profit server segment, and it would also eat into Intel's high margins in the desktop segment.

Why do you think Intel wouldn't do that? Any Intel executive would rather pick less money towards Intel coffers than 0 money coming for their coffers + money going to their competitor's coffers.
 

os2wiz

Junior Member
Jul 3, 2001
14
7
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Do you really think this managememt should have any credibility regarding performance estimates after fiji?

That conclusion is ignorant and blatantly false. Fiji Rage Fury will be a faster card than 780TX and when the optimized drivers are released the gap will widen some. There is no need to resort to gross falsehood to make an bad point. Just rest your case on your illogic instead.
 

desprado

Golden Member
Jul 16, 2013
1,645
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It's very hard to judge what your expectations are by that alone. Care to put some actual numbers on estimates for ST and MT performance for 8 core Zen vs some Intel reference CPU as I requested to make things more clear?
same was said for bulldozer , hence, in gaming at times even I3 is better than AMD 8 cores.
 
Aug 11, 2008
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That conclusion is ignorant and blatantly false. Fiji Rage Fury will be a faster card than 780TX and when the optimized drivers are released the gap will widen some. There is no need to resort to gross falsehood to make an bad point. Just rest your case on your illogic instead.

Nobody is making a "falsehood". In fact there is no such chip as a 780TX. If you are referring to the two top end cards, which have the same price, they are very close in performance, with the 980Ti having a slight edge and having currently more overclocking headroom.
 

DrMrLordX

Lifer
Apr 27, 2000
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Nehalen performance with Nehalen clocks.

Bollocks. AMD already has Vishera which can put up Nehalem-like scores:

http://www.numberworld.org/y-cruncher/#Benchmarks

Here we have an 8-thread Nehalem @ 3.4 GHz losing to an 8-thread Vishera @ 4 GHz in a highly-optimized-for-everything fp benchmark. Not integer, fp. Downclock the Vishera to 3.4 GHz and you'd probably see the two chips trading blows.

Meanwhile, my lowly A10-7700k @ 3.4 GHz (no turbo) and all-default settings elsewhere put up a 500M time of 289.279s. That's a "dirty run" since Windows Update was downloading preview 10162 (again, sigh) at the same time. Waterfox was also running in the background. And the chip usually picks up 10-20s if I run it under Linux instead of Windows.

Regardless, that's only a 4-thread chip. Double the number of modules and the time could (and probably would) wind up closer 145-150s, which would be a good bit faster than that 3.5 GHz i7-920. Or, if you prefer, shut down two of the physical cores on the 920 (taking the logical cores with them) and it would put up a time of ~370-380s.

Now that's one example of where Vishera can match Nehalem and Kaveri can beat it. Excavator is ~%5 faster (on average) than Steamroller. Why would a uarch with IPC 40% higher than Excavator have the same IPC as Nehalem? It doesn't add up.

I'm sure you'll want to counter with a benchmark that does not (for example) support FMA4 and xOP (or SSE4.1a, or AVX, or AVX2, for that matter) where Construction-core CPUs put up less lovely numbers compared to Nehalem. You can do that if you like, but you can not dismiss the relevance of y-cruncher. It pushes every modern uarch to its full potential (look at the Haswell numbers). I can think of no more fair benchmark.

GloFo is to have part of the A9 production. And they currently suffer huge on yields with 30% or so. Hence why Apple also have to use TSMC as a 3rd supplier for A9.

Even if we take the appleinsider article as fact, you must keep in mind that said article is several months old, and the article itself refers to events that were already weeks (if not months) prior to the date of the article's publication. Was it not published in March of this year? Or earlier?

The poor yields from GF's 14nm sample runs probably date back to late 2014/early 2015. Give them a little credit: they have shown that they can refine yields and improve performance in a production node given time. The yield problems today are not likely to be as pronounced as they were half a year ago. They certainly won't be that bad once it comes time to crank out production silicon for Zen.

I dont get where anyone get the idea that GloFo is somehow specialized in high performance products.

Now that GF has finished their acquisition of IBM's fabs and remaining fab employees, GF now controls the fabs that produce POWER8 on 22nm SOI. Is that not a high-performance product?
 

ShintaiDK

Lifer
Apr 22, 2012
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Are you really comparing SSE4.1 with XOP and then claim its somehow average performance of FX?

Also there is a newer article from June. Confirming the start of A9 at TSMC.

Zen wont be 22nm SOI. So its completely useless to compare with. And do you think they will continue that road? Why did IBM pay a billion to get rid of it again?
 

mrmt

Diamond Member
Aug 18, 2012
3,974
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That conclusion is ignorant and blatantly false. Fiji Rage Fury will be a faster card than 780TX and when the optimized drivers are released the gap will widen some. There is no need to resort to gross falsehood to make an bad point. Just rest your case on your illogic instead.

The only falsehood was on AMD marketing material, stating that Fury X was faster than GTX 980, and guess what, it wasn't.
 

mrmt

Diamond Member
Aug 18, 2012
3,974
0
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I'm sure you'll want to counter with a benchmark that does not (for example) support FMA4 and xOP (or SSE4.1a, or AVX, or AVX2, for that matter) where Construction-core CPUs put up less lovely numbers compared to Nehalem. You can do that if you like, but you can not dismiss the relevance of y-cruncher. It pushes every modern uarch to its full potential (look at the Haswell numbers). I can think of no more fair benchmark.

Nope, this is *exactly* what I expect from AMD 40% claim. Cherry picked cases like this one reporting sizable increases, while in overall being just slightly faster. But they, if they can put up Nehalen scores with Nehalen cores while being efficient, they will have a server product better than Vishera.
 

DrMrLordX

Lifer
Apr 27, 2000
21,842
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Are you really comparing SSE4.1 with XOP and then claim its somehow average performance of FX?

When did I say it was the average performance of Vishera? When did mrmt say anything about the "average" performance of Zen being similar to the "average" performance of Nehalem? The word average didn't come into play.

So, of course I am comparing SSE4.1 with xOP. SSE4.1 is the absolute best-case scenario for Nehalem, while xOP/FMA4 is the absolute best-case scenario for Vishera (or Kaveri). y-cruncher is an example of a benchmark being coded the way it "should be", taking advantage of every feature available on all production silicon. Again, refer to the Haswell numbers. Haswell devastates Ivy Bridge and Sandy Bridge in that benchmark, and it absolutely ruins AMD's offerings as well, thanks in no small part to AVX2.

It isn't my fault - nor AMD's nor Intel's - when code that could/should support modern ISA extensions doesn't.

There is no more fair comparison of what the hardware can do. If you want to gimp everyone by making them run legacy x87 or SSE2 software then go right ahead. Maybe you'll have a valid point, or maybe you won't. I'll let others decide that. But, in terms of the potential performance of the hardware in question, such testing is meaningless for AMD's or Intel's processors.

It is also well-documented that various "features" of AMD's Construction cores make them suffer in unoptimized benchmarks that inflict cache flushes/pipeline stalls. Construction cores have long pipelines and slow cache, so they recover poorly from such events. Zen is moving to an Intel-like cache hierarchy and (hopefully) to a shorter pipeline. I would expect that Keller is ripping off older Core variants to hell and back to bring performance of Zen closer to Intel offerings, especially in unoptimized "real world" code. The performance delta between Intel and AMD running legacy code will probably tighten up a bit.

Zen is also going to support FMA3 and AVX2 (and is dumping xOP), so unless Keller screws the pooch on the AVX2 implementation, Zen should get a nice performance boost on AVX2 code. There shouldn't be any issue with splitting AVX instructions that you can get with Vishera et al.

Also there is a newer article from June. Confirming the start of A9 at TSMC.

I would like to read that article if you've got a link handy. Or did you link it already in this thread?

Zen wont be 22nm SOI. So its completely useless to compare with. And do you think they will continue that road? Why did IBM pay a billion to get rid of it again?

You made a statement saying that you did not understand why anyone would consider GF to be a company that specializes in high-performance nodes. Since you didn't seem to think that their 32nm or 28nm processes qualified, I pointed you towards a node that GF now controls that is indisputably high performance. No, they won't be using 22nm SOI for anything, but what they do get is a bunch of engineers that implemented and/or worked with said 22nm SOI node to add to the many engineers they have already that failed to implement 28nm SOI. Do you not see that as an improvement?

IBM sold off their fabs for many reasons:

1). To shift away from hardware and towards software/services
2). To avoid the expenses and difficulties involved with future node shrinks.

You can either interpret it as a vote of "no confidence" in their POWER lineup, or you can interpret it as a vote of "no confidence" in the silicon foundry industry as a whole. Perhaps it was some of both.

Nope, this is *exactly* what I expect from AMD 40% claim. Cherry picked cases like this one reporting sizable increases, while in overall being just slightly faster. But they, if they can put up Nehalen scores with Nehalen cores while being efficient, they will have a server product better than Vishera.

And yet you can't deny that the performance is there. Stop and think about what you are saying before you accuse me (or anyone else) of cherry-picking. Look at the Haswell scores and then compare them to Vishera. Haswell destroys it completely and utterly. A 4 GHz i7-4770k @ 4 GHz puts up a y-cruncher 500M time of 63.602s. That is more than twice as fast as Vishera (as tested on the same page) given the same clockspeed and same thread count. Hell look at the 3630m in the same benchmark, which puts up a 154.446s. There's Ivy Bridge nearly matching Vishera at a considerably lower clockspeed (2.4-3.2 GHZ vs 4.0-4.2 GHz). If there were a 4M/8T Steamroller @ 3.4 GHz as I hypothesized above, the 3630qm would be trading blows with it, again at a lower clockspeed.

AMD shows SIMD-optimized benchmark results at its own peril.

Otherwise, I'll refer you to my reply to ShintaiDK. No sense in repeating myself.
 
Aug 11, 2008
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We have heard this excuse for Bulldozer (and their APUs/HSA as well) and its derivatives from day one, that it was (is) the fault of the software that performance is sub-par. OTOH, one could just as easily argue that part of the job of a hardware supplier is to design hardware that performs optimally with the software available. Admittedly, it is a somewhat of a chicken vs the egg argument, but especially when you have the second place market share it does not seem logical to expect the software to adapt to your architecture. In any case, the continual declining market share of AMD in cpus speaks for itself.
 

dark zero

Platinum Member
Jun 2, 2015
2,655
138
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Not only CPU, is in practically everything. Their GPU división is a dissaster, Consoles have their WORST sellings la in all history, but Embedded división is the only market they has chance.

The future of x86 for the next 3 years if Zen fails is...
Intel getting the CPU and console market (And even if that market survives, Ms might ditch Xbox since now all Xbox titles are playable on PC, Nintendo is a dissaster and Sony can move to MIPS again)
nVIDIA initially getting the GPU market, but eventually losing it against Intel.
Mobile... ARM has the crown and the only way Intel wins is that Windows 10 is a success.
AMD kills VIA or merges with them and goes Embedded all along.
 

Fjodor2001

Diamond Member
Feb 6, 2010
3,953
416
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Not only CPU, is in practically everything. Their GPU división is a dissaster, Consoles have their WORST sellings la in all history, but Embedded división is the only market they has chance.

The future of x86 for the next 3 years if Zen fails is...
Intel getting the CPU and console market (And even if that market survives, Ms might ditch Xbox since now all Xbox titles are playable on PC, Nintendo is a dissaster and Sony can move to MIPS again)
nVIDIA initially getting the GPU market, but eventually losing it against Intel.
Mobile... ARM has the crown and the only way Intel wins is that Windows 10 is a success.
AMD kills VIA or merges with them and goes Embedded all along.

What a ramble...
 

mrmt

Diamond Member
Aug 18, 2012
3,974
0
76
IBM sold off their fabs for many reasons:

1). To shift away from hardware and towards software/services
2). To avoid the expenses and difficulties involved with future node shrinks.

You can either interpret it as a vote of "no confidence" in their POWER lineup, or you can interpret it as a vote of "no confidence" in the silicon foundry industry as a whole. Perhaps it was some of both.

IBM is quitting the foundry business because:

1) They didn't have enough customers to sustain their business

2) POWER is bleeding share to Intel at a very fast rate.

Basically their business collapsed, and they *paid* Globalfoundries to get rid of it. I think this has to do with decommissioning costs, which would be far bigger than to pay 1 billion to Globalfoundries to take over their fabs.


And yet you can't deny that the performance is there. Stop and think about what you are saying before you accuse me (or anyone else) of cherry-picking.

I'm not telling that you are cherry picking, but that AMD processors have very irregular performance when compared to Intel processors, trading blows in a few cases, losing badly in others, and because of that the 40% number should be taken with healthy quantities of salt. The 40% can be on these cases where AMD currently falls badly, while the general improvement be much lower than this (hence my comparison with Nehalen). I believe that Nehalen IPC with Nehalen clocks with a high core count can give them a viable server product for the bottom of the stack, something they lacked with the CMT chips.
 

AtenRa

Lifer
Feb 2, 2009
14,003
3,361
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I believe that Nehalen IPC with Nehalen clocks with a high core count can give them a viable server product for the bottom of the stack, something they lacked with the CMT chips.

Again, they had higher than Nehalem performance 3 years ago with the FX8350 at lower TDP.
ZEN will be far more competitive than anyone thinks. But that alone doesnt guaranty an economic success, you need more than a good product this days to make it an economic success.
 
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