So...if AMD releases Polaris before Nvidia releases the next generation that would be a pretty big and easy win for them, eh?
There is no such thing for AMD as an easy win. They can release GPUs 50% faster than NV 6 months earlier and it will take years to dent market share. We already have perfect examples of that with HD5800 and HD7000 series.
But I feel like if Nvidia releases at the same time or even earlier...AMD is gonna fall flat again.
Yes, absolutely. AMD needs to launch first, it's paramount for them to win OEM design wins in large quantities.
I think AMD needs to do everything it can to get new GPU's out the door. I'm sure it's going to be a tight race though - but everyone is dying to get their hands on new GPU's based on this new smaller node, I think even a 1-2 month launch advantage for either camp would probably make a fairly meaningful difference.
I agree. R9 290/290X launching 5-6 months late hurt them badly, and having no R9 380/380X/390/390X from September 2014->May 2015 hurt them even more. Imagine if R9 290 series launched before or at 780's launch, if R9 290X launched 3 months before 780Ti, if AMD had 390/390X at September 2014, if AMD launched Fury 1-2 months before 980Ti?
For AMD, launching early is almost mandatory, unlike the competition. Their R9 300 / Fiji series strategy of launching everything at once was the stupidest launch strategy I've seen in years. By not having R9 380->390X cards since Sept 2014, AMD literally conceded sales and brand agnostic/objective PC gamers won't wait for months to see what AMD has in store. If their upgrade timing has come up, they'll just buy the competition. The HD5000/7000 strategies were by far better. Launching early means leading in terms of mind-share, setting your cards at highest prices with little competition to maximize profits and ensuring you have products with the latest features and "newest" halo effect. This time AMD's Polaris cards have definitive feature advantages over any current cards such as HDR, DP 1.3, HDMI 2.0, hopefully H.265 video engines and perf/watt advantage over 28nm cards. As soon as they launch, it would be MUCH harder to recommend the competition, which is why every single month 14nm/16nm GPUs are out on the market, they are really almost competing with themselves.
I don't see the same 6-9 months head-start that AMD had with HD5000/7000 series though but even a 1-2 months head-start is better than launching 1-2 months behind your competitor.