AMD financial results predictions thread

Phynaz

Lifer
Mar 13, 2006
10,140
819
126
As discussed in the video forum here http://forums.anandtech.com/showthread.php?t=2256727, AMD warned on revenue yesterday. So let's have a little fun for a week. I'll have a prize for the person that comes closest. In the event of a tie, first poster wins.

So what are your predictions for GAAP income (not revenue)?

Here's mine:

Net loss of $300M
 
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Idontcare

Elite Member
Oct 10, 1999
21,110
59
91
What I don't get is why the revenue decline? Intel hasn't made any price changes, have they? So why would AMD have lost marketshare these past 3 months? Is it GPU's and competition from NVidia's 28nm?

Yeah BD isn't super-competitive but that didn't just suddenly become the case in the past 90days, BD's performance and pricing was already baked-into the prior 3% revenue growth forcast.

So what changed in the past 90days that blindsided the AMD insiders who do the forecasts?
 

Raghu

Senior member
Aug 28, 2004
397
1
81
AMD is hiring quite a lot in Bangalore. Not sure if theres going to be a layoff.
 

Abwx

Lifer
Apr 2, 2011
11,536
4,323
136
What I don't get is why the revenue decline? Intel hasn't made any price changes, have they? So why would AMD have lost marketshare these past 3 months? Is it GPU's and competition from NVidia's 28nm?

Yeah BD isn't super-competitive but that didn't just suddenly become the case in the past 90days, BD's performance and pricing was already baked-into the prior 3% revenue growth forcast.

So what changed in the past 90days that blindsided the AMD insiders who do the forecasts?

Can be a lower CPUs average price as well as inability to supply demand
due to limited manufacturing capacities.
 

IntelUser2000

Elite Member
Oct 14, 2003
8,686
3,786
136
What I don't get is why the revenue decline? Intel hasn't made any price changes, have they? So why would AMD have lost marketshare these past 3 months? Is it GPU's and competition from NVidia's 28nm?

Yeah BD isn't super-competitive but that didn't just suddenly become the case in the past 90days, BD's performance and pricing was already baked-into the prior 3% revenue growth forcast.

So what changed in the past 90days that blindsided the AMD insiders who do the forecasts?

I don't think the problem is in Desktops, but Laptops and Servers.

Servers: Quite obvious. Servers are known to switch to newest CPU technology quick. Due to delay on the much-anticipated Xeon E5, some customers could have been waiting for purchase while opting for competition as well. Case in point: AMD server shares increased by 1.1% in Q1 over Q4 2011, a substantial amount. Coincidentally, Q1 is when Xeon E5 was launched. Apple, an extreme example of waiting for new product purchase, shows that launch quarters show reduction in sales.

That's not true in Q2 anymore. E5 probably took a lot of share away.

Laptops: Intel is actually pricing their products very aggressively on the low end. Sandy Bridge i3/i5 and Ivy Bridge i3/i5 costs an identical $225 for list pricing, but they have volume discounts. The pricing from cheap to most pricey is Sandy Bridge i3/Ivy Bridge i3/Sandy Bridge i5/Ivy Bridge i5.

That is reflected in Intel's ASPs of being only $100, in what they call "Premium category", basically all Core chips.
 
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Olikan

Platinum Member
Sep 23, 2011
2,023
275
126
well, intel sales did drop when they were about to release ivy...

the same probably happen here with amd and trinity
 

IntelUser2000

Elite Member
Oct 14, 2003
8,686
3,786
136
well, intel sales did drop when they were about to release ivy...

the same probably happen here with amd and trinity

In Desktops and Laptops its not that obvious. That IMO is shown in what's called a "ramp cycle", or what percentage a certain product line has over company sales. In servers, its very fast, and older generation is quickly displaced. In PCs, its not. Nehalem based chips still sell in the market, something that's almost inconceivable in servers.
 
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Khato

Golden Member
Jul 15, 2001
1,248
321
136
I'll go with a net loss of 63 million - don't believe they have any write-offs this quarter to be dragging their results down. While the Q2 results will be somewhat interesting, the real comparisons between how AMD's and Intel's offerings are doing in the market will have to wait 'til Q3 at least - that's when we'll begin seeing the effect of IVB, Trinity, and Ultrabooks/Ultrathins.
 

VirtualLarry

No Lifer
Aug 25, 2001
56,551
10,171
126
That's too bad AMD is taking a loss. I just bought a C-60 powered netbook/notebook, and I really like it. It has great battery life, and lets me do what I need to do with it.

I could even run skype with video-conferencing, while watching an online streaming video. Not 100% smooth on the online video, but that's true even with skype not running. Skype never skipped though.
 

minitron

Member
Mar 12, 2012
124
0
0
Beyond their actual product, AMD is a terribly run company while Intel is one of the best run companies.
 

Phynaz

Lifer
Mar 13, 2006
10,140
819
126
Hmmm...Just read that AMD is saying their cost of product is unchanged at something over $600M. That could bode well for actually posting a profit.

Would be a great surprise!
 

Meghan54

Lifer
Oct 18, 2009
11,684
5,222
136
$26M profit.

I'm an optimist sometimes.....lol!

That and I think everyone's forgetting last qtr's loss was because of the $703M final payment for "release" from their old fabs. AMD would've had a profit last qtr if not for that. So, even with declining revenues, their margins should remain about the same, even with the release of the 7XXX gpu series.
 
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Olikan

Platinum Member
Sep 23, 2011
2,023
275
126
Hmmm...Just read that AMD is saying their cost of product is unchanged at something over $600M. That could bode well for actually posting a profit.

Would be a great surprise!

mmm.... nice find
time to buy stocks
 

ShawnD1

Lifer
May 24, 2003
15,987
2
81
i will never buy any stock, never!
Alrighty, but your money is getting chewed away by inflation and bonds have a hard time keeping up with inflation. The Dow Jones averages something like 6%/year over long periods of time.
 

ShintaiDK

Lifer
Apr 22, 2012
20,378
145
106
Hmmm...Just read that AMD is saying their cost of product is unchanged at something over $600M. That could bode well for actually posting a profit.

Would be a great surprise!

So the production cost is the same, but they get payed 11% less? Thats pretty disasterous.
 
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