AMD financial results predictions thread

[Haserath]

Darn it, I was $6 million away from being a winner! Curse you Meghan!!D:

 

[veri745]

Happy to see that they were still net-positive after the shortfall warning.

Do they include the $12 million that they got from the government in grants as "income"?

I saw that mentioned in the bulleted list, but not in the numbers.

 

[Idontcare]

Yeah well the market is treating AMD as if they hit my target of -$232M. Go figure.

Today's market reacts based on expectations of tomorrow's economics, not yesterdays.

If AMD stock is down then it is because the market is aligning its expectation of Q3 with that set by AMD, meaning it was previously over-pricing AMD based on loftier expectations of Q3's numbers.

I was pleasantly surprised by this:

Gross margin 45 percent, non-GAAP gross margin 46 percent

That is a respectable gross margin.

As to where the -11% came from - CPU or GPU - it looks to be a bit of both, but definitely the lionshare came from CPU.

Computing Solutions segment revenue decreased 13 percent sequentially and year-over-year.

GPU revenue was down 5 percent in a seasonally down quarter, due to lower unit shipments in the channel.

 

[Phynaz]

Man I'm taking a beating.

 

[Idontcare]

AMD shipped too many of its Llano chips in the channel and the sales of those chips stalled, resulting in higher inventory in the sales channel. There were too many motherboards in the market as well, because there was a mismatch in what was needed in the channel. Controlling this for the future is within AMD’s control, Read said.

source

Well I guess that makes it no mystery then why retail Trinity was delayed. Also makes a lot of the bellyaching about GloFo's yields holding AMD back seem a bit disingenuous.

 

[paulcheung]

Man I'm taking a beating.

I am much worse than you. I had some shares was bought form the $20 and $13. and they don't pay a cent dividend!

Hope they don't bankrupt so maybe one day they will come back up. it have wend down that low already and reach back $20+ pershare.

 

[Arachnotronic]

Man I'm taking a beating.

Same. It'll eventually get pumped to $7-8, as usual. What's your avg cost? Sitting at $5.42 here.

 

[Phynaz]

Somewhere just over $5.00 I believe. I'm hoping it gets pumped soon.

 

[Abwx]

For stocks buyers , one thing :

Buying what is essentialy a bear stock mandate extreme patience
and stop losses orders MUST be implemented otherwise it become
a nightmare to wait for a decent exit....

 

[Medu]

Yeah well the market is treating AMD as if they hit my target of -$232M. Go figure.

The market knows that AMD are finished. A company can't make as many mistakes as they have over the last 5 years and survive, if they do then there is something wrong with the market.

Mistakes over the last few years:

• Getting out of the flash market just as it was starting to grow massively.
  
• Getting out of the mobile market in the middle of massive growth instead of making their own SoC.
  
• Going for high clock speeds instead of pushing for higher performance per watt has kill their chance at the laptop market and in the end ruined their desktop business.
  
• Bulldozer.
  
• Planning to use GF for 28nm APU's which had to be cancelled as GF are years behind target. GF are one of the primary reasons that AMD are starring down the barrel and need to be dumped.

On top of all that they have bleeding their top technical people which will have knock-on effects down the road. If you are a shareholder then all you can really hope for is someone takes pity on them and buys them for $6-7 a share as they haven't a chance of recovering.

 

[ShintaiDK]

Rule 101. Never buy stock due to emotions, brand loyalty or whatever that cloud your judgement.

 

[Arachnotronic]

Somewhere just over $5.00 I believe. I'm hoping it gets pumped soon.

It always does...we just might be holding the bag for a little while.

 

[Arachnotronic]

I'm watching the level 2 trading, and it seems that there are extraordinarily large bids, even pre-market.
http://i.imgur.com/xJe5z.png

I suspect the market makers want cheap shares and will run this thing up within a few days.

 

[Arachnotronic]

Ouch. Down 10%? Short sellers having a field day.

 

[Dresdenboy]

I'm watching the level 2 trading, and it seems that there are extraordinarily large bids, even pre-market.
http://i.imgur.com/xJe5z.png

I suspect the market makers want cheap shares and will run this thing up within a few days.

IIRC, ARCX is Archipelago, an ECN. So it doesn't stand for a single traders' buy interest.

So far the stock runs as expected. I assumed that it would drop further after that AM action yesterday. But a meeting prevented me from making use of it. It's about time for automation.

I was stopped out a while back a bit below $8, looking for re entry value and price.

 

[Arachnotronic]

Somewhere just over $5.00 I believe. I'm hoping it gets pumped soon.

How many shares you holding? I've got 400...which is still surprisingly painful, despite being such a small position.

 

[Phynaz]

1,100

Dang down 12% already today.

Citigroup:

While the PC environment is undoubtedly weak, AMD’s results underscore mis-execution by the company yet again. In 1H11, AMD changed management, 2H11 they had a yield problem, and now in 1H12 they mis-executed in the channel. These missteps have made us wrong on the shares.

 

[Phynaz]

Darn it, I was $6 million away from being a winner! Curse you Meghan!!D:

Meghan so far hasn't responded to my PM. Give it while, you may still win.

 

[Arachnotronic]

After I get out of this trade, I'm pretty much never touching AMD stock again. NVDA has provided much better returns.

 

[Zor Prime]

The market knows that AMD are finished.

I've been hearing this since the 90's.

 

[Arachnotronic]

Meghan so far hasn't responded to my PM. Give it while, you may still win.

Phynaz, what's your plan with the AMD shares? I'm thinking of doubling down and hoping to escape at a good price.

 

[Phynaz]

My plan is unchanged. I will sell about mid September to pay for my pc upgrades. Unfortunately it will not be paying for a vacation and upgrades, just a down payment on the vacation.

As far as doubling down, why do you think it will perform any better? What do you know that the market doesn't?

 

[Phynaz]

I've been hearing this since the 90's.

They've been pretty much slowly dying since the 90's.

 

[Olikan]

They've been pretty much slowly dying since the 90's.

no... amd is more financial stable today than the "A64 golden years"...

 

[Phynaz]

no... amd is more financial stable today than the "A64 golden years"...

Did you forgot in the last few years they had to issue shares twice? And sell off their fabs and real estate. And cut their best engineers?

And that billion dollars from Intel? Gone.