AMD: Fusion Delayed Until 2011, 32nm Dated For 2011 Too

ViRGE

Elite Member, Moderator Emeritus
Oct 9, 1999
31,516
167
106
EE Times has a short blurb up talking about two things.

First and foremost, Fusion has been delayed again, this time until 2011. Shrike, the 45nm product it was supposed to be released on, has been canned. Instead AMD wants to wait until they're at 32nm.

The second bit is that given the timetable listed, AMD won't have 32nm products until 2011 (I'm guessing early in the year, similar to Deneb being out in early 2009). AT has a good slide outlining this.
 

Foxery

Golden Member
Jan 24, 2008
1,709
0
0
I think AMD has left the microprocessor industry and now exclusively creates roadmaps.

Let's look at the pros of this business model:

1) You're always developing the best technology
2) Your competition has no chance if you keep changing your strategy
3) You can't miss product launches or financial expectations if there aren't any
4) Rich Arab countries are awed by PowerPoint slides, and will give you billions of dollars.

(* said by a long-time ATI/AMD fanboy who has given up)
 

Idontcare

Elite Member
Oct 10, 1999
21,118
59
91
Finally! An architecture roadmap and process technology cadence that makes sense if you want to have a good chance at meeting the dates. I like what I am seeing from AMD in these slides, it reflects a very healthy dose of reality has been fully comprehended by the decision makers.

It isn't sexy for us enthusiasts to think we have 2 yrs to wait until Bulldozer is out, but AMD really needed to set that stage properly for die-size, power consumption, and architecture feature set purposes.

45nm was too soon for bulldozer (from a resources and time standpoint), and 32nm in Q4'09 was kinda ludicrous expectation posited by the INQ IIRC.

For AMD it makes a lot of sense to have Bulldozer come to the markets on 32nm and for 32nm to come in 2yrs (end of 2010).

I'm curious to know if there will be a Phenom II shrink on 32nm to precede Bulldozer, kinda as a tick to get 32nm to maturity. Wouldn't need to be anything special, the 65nm X2's weren't.
 

exar333

Diamond Member
Feb 7, 2004
8,518
8
91
Originally posted by: VirtualLarry
Its got to be expensive for AMD to keep scrapping projects like this.

It is much less expensive than releasing another "dud". Better to wait and let the technology catch up to your goals (32nm Fusion).
 

Martimus

Diamond Member
Apr 24, 2007
4,488
153
106
Originally posted by: Idontcare
Finally! An architecture roadmap and process technology cadence that makes sense if you want to have a good chance at meeting the dates. I like what I am seeing from AMD in these slides, it reflects a very healthy dose of reality has been fully comprehended by the decision makers.

It isn't sexy for us enthusiasts to think we have 2 yrs to wait until Bulldozer is out, but AMD really needed to set that stage properly for die-size, power consumption, and architecture feature set purposes.

45nm was too soon for bulldozer (from a resources and time standpoint), and 32nm in Q4'09 was kinda ludicrous expectation posited by the INQ IIRC.

For AMD it makes a lot of sense to have Bulldozer come to the markets on 32nm and for 32nm to come in 2yrs (end of 2010).

I'm curious to know if there will be a Phenom II shrink on 32nm to precede Bulldozer, kinda as a tick to get 32nm to maturity. Wouldn't need to be anything special, the 65nm X2's weren't.

From what I read on the roadmap presented during AMD's Financial Analyst Day they are actually planning on starting Magny-Cours and Sao-Paulo on 32nm in 2010, with Bulldozer coming the following year. (It looks like you were right about Magny-Cours and Sao-Paulo being MCM Shanghai and Istanbul products.)

I may have read that wrong, but starting 32nm in 2010, and having 8 and 12 core products being released then seems to make too much since for the two not to be linked.
 

Idontcare

Elite Member
Oct 10, 1999
21,118
59
91
Originally posted by: Martimus
From what I read on the roadmap presented during AMD's Financial Analyst Day they are actually planning on starting Magny-Cours and Sao-Paulo on 32nm in 2010, with Bulldozer coming the following year. (It looks like you were right about Magny-Cours and Sao-Paulo being MCM Shanghai and Istanbul products.)

I may have read that wrong, but starting 32nm in 2010, and having 8 and 12 core products being released then seems to make too much since for the two not to be linked.

Well if it does turn out that my prediction was correct then it will have just been a lucky guess.

But we can see the TDP/socket issue is still going to be present on 45nm, just not as bad as I was fearing.

If 2.7GHz Shanghai can operate at 75W TDP (or is it ACP?) then it doesn't seem too unreasonable to expect an MCM'ed Sao-Paulo with 8 cores at say 2.5GHz to operate within a 140W TDP envelope.

And that seems like it would be decently competitive with a 130W TDP 3.2GHz Nehalem or a 150W 2.2GHz (purely guessing here) 8-core Beckton.

To put it mildly, based on the early performance/watt results of Shanghai I have far greater confidence in the feasibility of 45nm Sao-Paulo and Magny-Cours than I had 2-3 months ago. If these devices turn out to be 32nm MCM'ed parts then it seems like a slam-dunk to compete against Nehalem in the server space...provided Westmere isn't shipping then (unlikely, I know, but trying to be upbeat here)
 

Martimus

Diamond Member
Apr 24, 2007
4,488
153
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Originally posted by: Idontcare
Well if it does turn out that my prediction was correct then it will have just been a lucky guess.

But we can see the TDP/socket issue is still going to be present on 45nm, just not as bad as I was fearing.

If 2.7GHz Shanghai can operate at 75W TDP (or is it ACP?) then it doesn't seem too unreasonable to expect an MCM'ed Sao-Paulo with 8 cores at say 2.5GHz to operate within a 140W TDP envelope.

And that seems like it would be decently competitive with a 130W TDP 3.2GHz Nehalem or a 150W 2.2GHz (purely guessing here) 8-core Beckton.

To put it mildly, based on the early performance/watt results of Shanghai I have far greater confidence in the feasibility of 45nm Sao-Paulo and Magny-Cours than I had 2-3 months ago. If these devices turn out to be 32nm MCM'ed parts then it seems like a slam-dunk to compete against Nehalem in the server space...provided Westmere isn't shipping then (unlikely, I know, but trying to be upbeat here)

I agree with you that a 8 and 12 core CPU would be feasible with the power showings from Shanghai. So you may be right that they won't roll out 32nm SOI until bulldozer. If they do start shipping 32nm SOI in volume in 2010, I wouldn't expect that to happen until the second half of the year at the earliest though. At the same time, doesn't AMD have a continuous improvement manufacturing environment that may allow them to produce a die shrink earlier, at the expense of other improvements that they would add later to their process? I don't understand the process, as it seems to me that it would add compatibility problems down the line, unless all the added improvements are purely cost and ease of manufacturing improvements. I just remember reading a conversation between you and Viditor about the process, but I really have no true insight into how it works.
 

XBoxLPU

Diamond Member
Aug 21, 2001
4,249
1
0
Originally posted by: ExarKun333
Originally posted by: VirtualLarry
Its got to be expensive for AMD to keep scrapping projects like this.

It is much less expensive than releasing another "dud". Better to wait and let the technology catch up to your goals (32nm Fusion).

And by the the time they wait and wait, Intel will have ran circles around them. This isn't intended to come out fan boyish . With the money that Intel has it isn't good to give them time and room to breathe
 

Idontcare

Elite Member
Oct 10, 1999
21,118
59
91
Originally posted by: XBoxLPU
And by the the time they wait and wait, Intel will have ran circles around them. This isn't intended to come out fan boyish . With the money that Intel has it isn't good to give them time and room to breathe

Not fanboi at all to state the likely outcome of running a two-man race where one guy has 4x the resources to ensure he's eating healthy, has the best trainers, sleeping well and without nary a worry on their mind while the other guy is off in the steppes of Russia ala Rocky Balboa style attempting to make a comeback with the drunk uncle as his trainer and eating raw eggs for breakfast.

Only in this case this isn't the movies...so that part where the underdog doesn't perpetually win every time in real life is kinda a downer.

Originally posted by: ViRGE
The second bit is that given the timetable listed, AMD won't have 32nm products until 2011

http://www.tgdaily.com/images/...shows/200811141/29.jpg

AMD seems to be padding their timeline to allow for some schedule slippage on their end with the design/tape-out/validation and on the Foundry Co's end with getting 32nm production worthy. In the graph above we see the Foundry Co's technology roadmap lists 32nm Bulk as being production worthy end of Q1 2010 and 32nm hi-performance SOI as production worthy at end of Q2 2010.

Note the footnote on lower-left corner of the slide...qual complete means start production so product release would typically be another 3 months after that (90 day cycle time thru the fab for first wafer starts post qual)...so you are looking at a Q2 2010 32nm bulk volume ship and a Q3 2010 32nm SOI volume ship timeline.

Originally posted by: Martimus
If they do start shipping 32nm SOI in volume in 2010, I wouldn't expect that to happen until the second half of the year at the earliest though.

That is in perfect alignment with the roadmap details mentioned above and is very likely to be the internal roadmap that they are targeting, but are sandbagging the analysts by a quarter or two just in case a slip-up occurs in the next 2 yrs.

Originally posted by: Martimus
At the same time, doesn't AMD have a continuous improvement manufacturing environment that may allow them to produce a die shrink earlier, at the expense of other improvements that they would add later to their process? I don't understand the process, as it seems to me that it would add compatibility problems down the line, unless all the added improvements are purely cost and ease of manufacturing improvements. I just remember reading a conversation between you and Viditor about the process, but I really have no true insight into how it works.

CTI - Continuous Transistor Improvement - enables AMD to make changes to the transistors that impact the transistor's parametrics (leakage, Ion/Ioff, IDsat, IDrive, IDDQ, etc) and/or improve their robustness and lifetime (TDDB, leakage, breakdown, NBTI etc) while doing so in such a way that it does not break the IC design that is being fabbed with the underlying (changing) process technology.

As such you won't see a die-shrink be part of a CTI. You could see something as drastic as the proposed HK/MG interchange for the existing SiON/poly-Si gate stack, but the overall design rules would remain the same (presumably, as a boundary condition to the CTI being deemed viable for implementation to begin with) as otherwise a re-spin of the design would be necessary (i.e. a shrink requires a shrink, no free lunch there).

Where you might get the impression that such things happen, where a shrink happens mid-product life cycle, is from the foundry business structure where they introduce so-called "half nodes" which are intended to be drop-in easy optical shrinks of existing designs. A 45nm design is intended to be drop-in shrinkable to 40nm half-node for TSMC for example.

It's not entirely as "drop it in and forget it" easy as the PR statements make it sound, there is in fact a design respin to ensure bottlenecks are not created (hotspots, current overloads, excessive IR drops, race conditions, etc) but the idea is that if you have an existing and functioning (i.e. low maintenance from design engineer resource standpoint) design at say 45nm then migrating it to 40nm at the same foundry is so crazy easy that you would be a fool to not throw the couple extra millions of dollars of resources that the design team would need to do the 40nm respin/validation efforts.

If the foundry couldn't make it so easy for the fabless guys to take advantage of the half-node then they wouldn't offer it to begin with. And they (TSMC) started offering it as a way to differentiate themselves from the competition (UMC) with the 0.35um node, which then required UMC to likewise offer a half-node to keep their customers from migrating for this specific differentiating feature of TSMC at the time.

A side-note on recent activity with the foundry half-nodes, if I may, it would appear that the foundry's mis-stepped very badly with their 45nm plans and as such the focus shifted quite rapidly to 40nm. Now you hear the foundries discuss the half-node in ways that previously were reserved for the primary node. It is almost as if they couldn't stand to admit they delayed 45nm introduction and instead they just moved the labels around and what was originally going to be the 45nm has been relabelled (and finally introduced after much delay) as the 40nm half-node.

I say this because now the 32nm node is being downplayed, almost as if it were really the 40nm half-node in reality but slipped out a year and relabeled as the 32nm node and instead all the emphasis is on the 28nm half-node now being the "big node" to watch for from the foundries insofar as the introduction of HK/MG, etc. Pure marketing basically.
 

Idontcare

Elite Member
Oct 10, 1999
21,118
59
91
Originally posted by: Idontcare
A side-note on recent activity with the foundry half-nodes, if I may, it would appear that the foundry's mis-stepped very badly with their 45nm plans and as such the focus shifted quite rapidly to 40nm. Now you hear the foundries discuss the half-node in ways that previously were reserved for the primary node. It is almost as if they couldn't stand to admit they delayed 45nm introduction and instead they just moved the labels around and what was originally going to be the 45nm has been relabelled (and finally introduced after much delay) as the 40nm half-node.

I say this because now the 32nm node is being downplayed, almost as if it were really the 40nm half-node in reality but slipped out a year and relabeled as the 32nm node and instead all the emphasis is on the 28nm half-node now being the "big node" to watch for from the foundries insofar as the introduction of HK/MG, etc. Pure marketing basically.

Just quoting myself to post this EEtimes link with some follow-up info on this line of thinking (for completeness sake should anyone read this thread and care):

TSMC moves 40-nm to mass production

Besides 40-nm, TSMC is leading in other processes. In September, the company rolled out its 32- and 28-nm processes. The 32-nm process is a cost-down version of its 40-nm technology, while 28-nm is considered by TSMC as a ''full-node'' offering.

http://www.eetimes.com/news/se...ml?articleID=212100139

In other words what was once upon a time going to be the 45nm has finally been released but to keep marketing happy and sexy they relabeled it the "40nm node"...which then required relabeling the 40nm half-node as the 32nm node...which then further pushed out the labeling sequence so what was going to be called the 32nm is now re-labeled as being the 28nm node.

Makes it sound like TSMC is always a half-node ahead of the competition. TFC could (pointlessly) one-up them and re-label their forthcoming 32nm node as the 16nm node...node labels become all the more meaningless when marketing crap like this takes precedence instead of admitting a slip in schedule has happened.
 
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