AMD Polaris Thread: Radeon RX 480, RX 470 & RX 460 launching June 29th

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Kenmitch

Diamond Member
Oct 10, 1999
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Wait and see is what I'd suggest.

Kind of seems strange. Reading posts it seems like the 8GB card was the one most users wanted anyways.
 

lukart

Member
Oct 27, 2014
172
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4 VS 8GB would yield not much more performance gain anyways. Could be better for future titles perhaps.
 

krumme

Diamond Member
Oct 9, 2009
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But how many other things have the talked about over that time that haven't come to fruition? You can't point to a single instance of something someone said years ago and use it to suggest it was the plan all along without also looking at all of the things that didn't come true.
What are you trying to say? Can you be more specific?
 

zinfamous

No Lifer
Jul 12, 2006
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But how many other things have the talked about over that time that haven't come to fruition? You can't point to a single instance of something someone said years ago and use it to suggest it was the plan all along without also looking at all of the things that didn't come true.

Why not? Just because a plan didn't meet it's goals for whatever reason and come to fruition from the consumer perspective doesn't mean some other plan that actually did meet its goals is now somehow not a longterm plan.

Why wouldn't it be?

Plans change and fail all the time. Plenty of individuals and companies have plenty of plans that never work out, and plenty that do.
 

Yakk

Golden Member
May 28, 2016
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Well looking at the small diesize and low price they did more than talk about it. Its been planned for several years so this bs about pascal whatever is nonsense. The decisions was made like what 1-2 years ago?

Bringing a GPU to market is quite a lengthy and complicated process. The market could take an unexpected shift along the way, but everything I've seen so far points to Polaris being approximately where RTG was aiming for; small die for mass production. If it was a huge die selling for cheap then I would say something went wrong, arguably like Hawaii. This time however Polaris looks right on the mark. When I'm not traveling I'll link the interview.
 

lukart

Member
Oct 27, 2014
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Bringing a GPU to market is quite a lengthy and complicated process. The market could take an unexpected shift along the way, but everything I've seen so far points to Polaris being approximately where RTG was aiming for; small die for mass production. If it was a huge die selling for cheap then I would say something went wrong, arguably like Hawaii. This time however Polaris looks right on the mark. When I'm not traveling I'll link the interview.

Also Im guessing AMD is getting better deal from Globf. So they can get more margins out of each wafer that allows them to have more aggressive pricing.
 

Kenmitch

Diamond Member
Oct 10, 1999
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Also Im guessing AMD is getting better deal from Globf. So they can get more margins out of each wafer that allows them to have more aggressive pricing.

Depending on how you look at it they get free wafers. Use them or pay anyways. I'm sure it helps a lot when your pricing your offerings.
 

Mopetar

Diamond Member
Jan 31, 2011
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What are you trying to say? Can you be more specific?

AMD may have talked about this plan of theirs 2 years ago, but they also would have talked about a lot of other things, many of which never happened or didn't come true.

You can't pick just one thing that they said in the past and use it to support the idea that they had planned for something all along. Otherwise you could also pick one thing that they said which didn't come true and state that all of their plans changed or they didn't know what they're talking about.

Consider the case where right now I make 15 predictions about what will happen with some tech company in 2 years time. One of those predictions happens to come true, but that doesn't mean that I actually know what I'm talking about, especially if the other 14 predictions are flat out wrong. You'd want to look at all of the predictions to get a better idea of whether I just got lucky or just making wild claims, one of which happened to be true.
 

krumme

Diamond Member
Oct 9, 2009
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AMD may have talked about this plan of theirs 2 years ago, but they also would have talked about a lot of other things, many of which never happened or didn't come true.

You can't pick just one thing that they said in the past and use it to support the idea that they had planned for something all along. Otherwise you could also pick one thing that they said which didn't come true and state that all of their plans changed or they didn't know what they're talking about.

Consider the case where right now I make 15 predictions about what will happen with some tech company in 2 years time. One of those predictions happens to come true, but that doesn't mean that I actually know what I'm talking about, especially if the other 14 predictions are flat out wrong. You'd want to look at all of the predictions to get a better idea of whether I just got lucky or just making wild claims, one of which happened to be true.
It doesnt make sense in this context. Its irrelevant for this reason:

85% of the market is below 300 usd. It doesnt change drastically.

Amd made the decision 2 years ago to market p10 p11 and vega and slice the 3 dies the size we know aprox.

Amd doesnt make two cards p10 and vega (2 of 3 sizes) for 15% of the market. They have one size vega for the 15% - its plenty and perhaps even an overshoot.

Saying p10 should in anyway target the 15% market is so far out its crazy.
 

Mopetar

Diamond Member
Jan 31, 2011
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Also Im guessing AMD is getting better deal from Globf. So they can get more margins out of each wafer that allows them to have more aggressive pricing.

That assumes the yields are good though, which I don't think they are at this point. Better pricing could also be a case of GloFo discounting wafer prices because the yields are below agreed levels.

It doesn't really matter either way though as the price is what it is. Whether AMD makes money hand over first or nothing at all doesn't change the cost to me.
 

zinfamous

No Lifer
Jul 12, 2006
110,820
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Consider the case where right now I make 15 predictions about what will happen with some tech company in 2 years time. One of those predictions happens to come true, but that doesn't mean that I actually know what I'm talking about, especially if the other 14 predictions are flat out wrong. You'd want to look at all of the predictions to get a better idea of whether I just got lucky or just making wild claims, one of which happened to be true.

Well, sounds like the stock market. How can you tell the difference between a smart investor and a dumb investor? The dumb one claims that they know what specific markets will do tomorrow, next month, several years from now and that luck is never involved.
 

topmounter

Member
Aug 3, 2010
194
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It doesnt make sense in this context. Its irrelevant for this reason:

85% of the market is below 300 usd. It doesnt change drastically.

Amd made the decision 2 years ago to market p10 p11 and vega and slice the 3 dies the size we know aprox.

Amd doesnt make two cards p10 and vega (2 of 3 sizes) for 15% of the market. They have one size vega for the 15% - its plenty and perhaps even an overshoot.

Saying p10 should in anyway target the 15% market is so far out its crazy.

Yeah, the expectations for P10/11 have been pretty clear for quite some time now. Sure, P10 could over achieve and sure, nV could have laid an egg with the 1070/80 cards, but both of those possibilities have steadily and consistently diminished as launch approaches. The only "surprise" seems to be 480 pricing, but even that is consistent the pricing of its predecessor.
 
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antihelten

Golden Member
Feb 2, 2012
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Not happening. GDDR5X is around 5-8% faster costing 20% more. Not pratical for a mainstream card. :thumbsdown:

Huh? GDDR5X is much faster than that.

GDDR5X is specced up to 14 GHz (effective), which is 75% faster than the 8 GHz GDDR5 AMD is using for the RX 480.

Even if AMD can't get their hands on GDDR5X quite that fast yet, there is still the 10 GHz GDDR5X that Nvidia is using on the 1080, which would still be 25% faster.

GDDR5X may very well be too expensive for a $300 card though.
 

littleg

Senior member
Jul 9, 2015
355
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That assumes the yields are good though, which I don't think they are at this point. Better pricing could also be a case of GloFo discounting wafer prices because the yields are below agreed levels.

It doesn't really matter either way though as the price is what it is. Whether AMD makes money hand over first or nothing at all doesn't change the cost to me.

Why don't you think yields are good? (genuine question)
 

krumme

Diamond Member
Oct 9, 2009
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That assumes the yields are good though, which I don't think they are at this point. Better pricing could also be a case of GloFo discounting wafer prices because the yields are below agreed levels.

It doesn't really matter either way though as the price is what it is. Whether AMD makes money hand over first or nothing at all doesn't change the cost to me.
My analysis goes this way:

Gf revenue and profit have been bad

Mubadala investment in gf is a disaster

For political reasons more revenue is a way to hide the reality and save face. The situation is tense with falling oil prices and huge state deficit.

Amd is the only ones that can move wafers in real quantity for gf.
They are forced to do so because of wsa and because Mubadala effectively got them by the balls because they have acted as bank several time the last years giving cash when needed.

Only gpu can move some wafers now as cpu is crap.

Low price gives more revenue.

Revenue = gf can say they have progress = political win
 

tential

Diamond Member
May 13, 2008
7,355
642
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That assumes the yields are good though, which I don't think they are at this point. Better pricing could also be a case of GloFo discounting wafer prices because the yields are below agreed levels.

It doesn't really matter either way though as the price is what it is. Whether AMD makes money hand over first or nothing at all doesn't change the cost to me.

Source?
 

lukart

Member
Oct 27, 2014
172
8
46
Huh? GDDR5X is much faster than that.

GDDR5X is specced up to 14 GHz (effective), which is 75% faster than the 8 GHz GDDR5 AMD is using for the RX 480.

Even if AMD can't get their hands on GDDR5X quite that fast yet, there is still the 10 GHz GDDR5X that Nvidia is using on the 1080, which would still be 25% faster.

GDDR5X may very well be too expensive for a $300 card though.

That's why they only got 10G. The yields according to industry are terrible. They cannot get much more than that. So yea, its only 5 -7%.
 

trane

Member
May 26, 2016
92
1
11
Why don't you think yields are good? (genuine question)

It's natural to assume that yields for a brand new process are limited, but the obvious indication that 480 is yielding well and at large quantities is the very aggressive $199 price.
 

crisium

Platinum Member
Aug 19, 2001
2,643
615
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That's why they only got 10G. The yields according to industry are terrible. They cannot get much more than that. So yea, its only 5 -7%.

He clearly stated that even 10GHz GDDR5X is 25% faster than the fastest GDDR5 available, 8GHz.

How is that 5 - 7%? What on earth??
 

Mopetar

Diamond Member
Jan 31, 2011
8,024
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Why don't you think yields are good? (genuine question)


There's no source where someone from the company comes out and says that yields were bad, but it's my interpretation from the data.

We know that AMD had working hardware well in advance of Nvidia as they were showing it off as early as the start of the year and there were some credible sources indicating when Polaris taped out.

Based on all of that, AMD should have been able to launch much earlier than NV had everything gone smoothly, and NV may have expected AMD to launch earlier which lead them to step up their own launch in turn. There were a few other rumors about AMD getting a batch of chips that failed validation, or the chips not being able to hit targeted clock speeds, or just other woes to suggest problems in production.

We know that AMD went into production earlier and we also know that they don't have a problem getting wafers from Global Foundries because of previous arrangements between the two companies. The only conclusion to draw from that is that the yields weren't as good as expected or they should have been.

Even with AMD having working chips early in the year, they still were also vague about launch dates, so I think they properly anticipated delays or other issues, or at least accounted for the possibility that they might happen. If things came out better than expected, they could push the launch forward and no one would complain or fault them for that, but if they acted optimistically and missed a launch or had a paper launch they would get massacred for it.

I think that Global Foundries had some problems that added a few months of delays, but that AMD was smart enough to anticipate this so that it didn't blow up in their faces like it did when AMD first started using GF's 32 nm process.
 

Mopetar

Diamond Member
Jan 31, 2011
8,024
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It's natural to assume that yields for a brand new process are limited, but the obvious indication that 480 is yielding well and at large quantities is the very aggressive $199 price.

Price isn't just a factor of yields, but also of performance. If they tried selling the 480 for $300 it wouldn't sell no matter how good yields were. $200 is what they think will allow them to sell the most chips.

If yields are good, it means they make more profit on every $200 sale because each chip is less expensive to manufacture. If yields are bad, it means they don't make as much profit on each chip.

If Polaris 10 were the only GPU available they could pick a price to maximize profit, but that isn't the case so they have to choose a price to maximize revenue (sales) without regard to yield. Even if they have to lose money on each chip until yields improve, it's better than not selling any chips at the price required to profit, but one which no one will pay due to having other options.
 

Concillian

Diamond Member
May 26, 2004
3,751
8
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He clearly stated that even 10GHz GDDR5X is 25% faster than the fastest GDDR5 available, 8GHz.

How is that 5 - 7%? What on earth??

Maybe he's saying real world performance difference of the bandwidth is only 5-7%? If so, he didn't state it very clearly. That's all I can think, as 5-7% is probably in that ballpark of real world performance gain of +25% memory bandwidth.
 

xthetenth

Golden Member
Oct 14, 2014
1,800
529
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Price isn't just a factor of yields, but also of performance. If they tried selling the 480 for $300 it wouldn't sell no matter how good yields were. $200 is what they think will allow them to sell the most chips.

If yields are good, it means they make more profit on every $200 sale because each chip is less expensive to manufacture. If yields are bad, it means they don't make as much profit on each chip.

If Polaris 10 were the only GPU available they could pick a price to maximize profit, but that isn't the case so they have to choose a price to maximize revenue (sales) without regard to yield. Even if they have to lose money on each chip until yields improve, it's better than not selling any chips at the price required to profit, but one which no one will pay due to having other options.

If you don't have the ability to get arbitrary amounts of product, then you want to price to where the demand is limited to the amount of product you have. AMD is pricing the card aggressively, that is pricing it at a level that should drive demand. If it were up near $300, making it the card for people who can't swing a 1070, then you'd have a point, but at $200, it's aggressive levels of price/perf.
 

Yakk

Golden Member
May 28, 2016
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If AMD secured OEM contracts and design wins like Apple, they may have had to secure more inventory than expected which could've contributed to pushing the release date a little bit, but still within Q2 as expected.
 
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