AMD Polaris Thread: Radeon RX 480, RX 470 & RX 460 launching June 29th

Page 37 - Seeking answers? Join the AnandTech community: where nearly half-a-million members share solutions and discuss the latest tech.
Status
Not open for further replies.

Headfoot

Diamond Member
Feb 28, 2008
4,444
641
126
If AMD secured OEM contracts and design wins like Apple, they may have had to secure more inventory than expected which could've contributed to pushing the release date a little bit, but still within Q2 as expected.

Where is everyone getting this "push the release date" or "delayed" information from???? As far as I've heard in every rumor there has never been a firm launch date until we heard the NDA lifts at June 29. What was pushed??? What was the original rumored date then and can you link the source of that rumor which fixed an earlier date, because I dont remember seeing that. All I remember seeing was that graph where people were counting the pixels to see which quarter of 2016 polaris fell into, and determining it was probably Q2. Are people just saying it was "pushed" because Pascal came out faster than they expected??
 
Last edited:

maddie

Diamond Member
Jul 18, 2010
4,787
4,771
136
GloFlo has started volume production of 14nm LPP in the 1st quarter of 2016.
P10 and P11 are products for very high volume market segments.
From starting a fab run to having cards at retailers take several months.
Stocking adequate volumes takes additional time.
An aggressive price will drive volume even more.


Taken together, all I can ask is how do these fantasy scenarios get viewed as having any basis in reality?

Namely, that AMD could have released so long ago, seeing that they had working silicon, and because they haven't released by now, there must be some sort of problem.

Any rational thinker will see that they are probably releasing as fast as is practical for a very high volume, aggressively priced part that should sell in large quantities.

AND, they have said mid-year for some time now.
 

Yakk

Golden Member
May 28, 2016
1,574
275
81
Where is everyone getting this "push the release date" or "delayed" information from???? As far as I've heard in every rumor there has never been a firm launch date until we heard the NDA lifts at June 29. What was pushed??? What was the original rumored date then and can you link the source of that rumor which fixed an earlier date, because I dont remember seeing that. All I remember seeing was that graph where people were counting the pixels to see which quarter of 2016 polaris fell into, and determining it was probably Q2. Are people just saying it was "pushed" because Pascal came out faster than they expected??

I personally do not think Polaris got pushed at all, Q2 always seemed to be the target. If anything, as I posted maybe it moved slightly within the target quarter, but within a calculated margin.

IMO, the "pushed back" or "delayed" seems to stem from fanboy posts and/or counter marketing (hard to distinguish between two) unless somebody can link to a statement directly saying the contrary from a SEC monitored and/or official statement?
 

Headfoot

Diamond Member
Feb 28, 2008
4,444
641
126
I personally do not think Polaris got pushed at all, Q2 always seemed to be the target. If anything, as I posted maybe it moved slightly within the target quarter, but within a calculated margin.

IMO, the "pushed back" or "delayed" seems to stem from fanboy posts and/or counter marketing (hard to distinguish between two) unless somebody can link to a statement directly saying the contrary from a SEC monitored and/or official statement?

I would tend to agree with you, it does seem to be counter marketing more than evidence-based or even rumor-based.

I suspect its part of some strange gut reaction where people thought Pascal was going to come later than it did. Not sure why. Maybe wishful thinking?
 

krumme

Diamond Member
Oct 9, 2009
5,956
1,595
136
Who would two years ago bet their money on amd and gf only beeing aprox 1 month after nv tsmc on finfet?
Imo calling it a delay is insane looking at gf prior execution the last 8 years. Its more of a damn miracle. Things is aparently changing to the good at gf and my guess is the name Samsung is all over even the most insignificant procedures.
I would still hold my breath about availability but 200 usd is a fact that points the good way.
 
Last edited:

Qwertilot

Golden Member
Nov 28, 2013
1,604
257
126
Well AMD did show stuff a long time ago and (iirc) say that were ahead of NV by a few months when they did so.

And honestly if all else was equal, you'd have expected them to launch first/at least equal - significantly smaller chips and no need for early GDDR5X supply etc either. Even if it had just been the smaller polaris chip to chase notebooks, they'd have got some nice kudos out of it.

As it is they're behind GP100, all of GP104 and may not get far ahead of GP106. So something happened. Maybe AMD miscalculated where NV were, but also far from implausible that something slipped in their schedule.

Hardly matters and entirely daft to speculate much as impossible to prove
(As post above notes, all else isn't equal in terms of historical competency, and this isn't at all bad.).
 

Mopetar

Diamond Member
Jan 31, 2011
8,011
6,454
136
If you don't have the ability to get arbitrary amounts of product, then you want to price to where the demand is limited to the amount of product you have. AMD is pricing the card aggressively, that is pricing it at a level that should drive demand. If it were up near $300, making it the card for people who can't swing a 1070, then you'd have a point, but at $200, it's aggressive levels of price/perf.

AMD has to be more aggressive on price because they're not targeting the top of the market with Polaris. Nvidia can charge whatever they want since you can't buy a faster card right now and they have low levels of supply so they might as well take whatever they can get as selling at a so-called "fair" price doesn't do them any good.

I think that if yields were better, AMD would be talking about their $300+ 480X, but they couldn't get enough chips that had enough active CUs at a high enough clock speed to sell a $300 chip. I think Polaris 10 has the capacity to compete with the 1070, but not when fabbed on Global Foundries 14 nm node.

I personally do not think Polaris got pushed at all, Q2 always seemed to be the target. If anything, as I posted maybe it moved slightly within the target quarter, but within a calculated margin.

IMO, the "pushed back" or "delayed" seems to stem from fanboy posts and/or counter marketing (hard to distinguish between two) unless somebody can link to a statement directly saying the contrary from a SEC monitored and/or official statement?

Q2 is a 3 month window. I think AMD would have liked to have been out early Q2 in an ideal world (yields were good and no production difficulties) but knew better than to bet on that. Realistically we're looking at what should really be called an early Q3 launch.

I'd like to think that AMD is just being coy with Polaris and avoiding tipping their hand to Nvidia any sooner than possible, but it's more realistic that Global Foundries dropped the ball again and AMD is trying to save face. Since GF is using Samsung's tech it at least gives AMD the ability to get wafers from Samsung that should allow for a better product. Some part of me thinks Polaris was designed as a low power efficiency part because AMD had no confidence in Global Foundries to allow them to make high performance silicon.
 

Qwertilot

Golden Member
Nov 28, 2013
1,604
257
126
Not that last part - AMD needed a chip doing 'power efficiency' well for consoles, notebooks and all sorts of other semi custom stuff. More important to their medium term survival than anything in the direct consumer market.
 

Olecki

Member
Jun 8, 2015
32
0
6
One thing makes me wonder - if AMD is planning to have sufficient volumen RX 480 on shelves at release day (29.06 - technically still Q2) now all AiB should producing cards with large quantities, but there are absolutely no leaks - photos, custom coolers, more and more footprints in benchmarks done by different vendors, anything. I don't believe that in this times it's even possible, especially for product directed to mainstream. For GTX 1080 we have cooling shroud photos leaked over one month before NV presentation and nearly 2 months before launch. For Polaris it's still nothing.
 

swilli89

Golden Member
Mar 23, 2010
1,558
1,181
136
One thing makes me wonder - if AMD is planning to have sufficient volumen RX 480 on shelves at release day (29.06 - technically still Q2) now all AiB should producing cards with large quantities, but there are absolutely no leaks - photos, custom coolers, more and more footprints in benchmarks done by different vendors, anything. I don't believe that in this times it's even possible, especially for product directed to mainstream. For GTX 1080 we have cooling shroud photos leaked over one month before NV presentation and nearly 2 months before launch. For Polaris it's still nothing.

Remember that was the cooler designed by nVidia for its "Founder's Edition". People are joking to themselves if they think this was an actual leak. It was done on purpose to generate hype.
 

tential

Diamond Member
May 13, 2008
7,355
642
121
Well AMD did show stuff a long time ago and (iirc) say that were ahead of NV by a few months when they did so.

And honestly if all else was equal, you'd have expected them to launch first/at least equal - significantly smaller chips and no need for early GDDR5X supply etc either. Even if it had just been the smaller polaris chip to chase notebooks, they'd have got some nice kudos out of it.

As it is they're behind GP100, all of GP104 and may not get far ahead of GP106. So something happened. Maybe AMD miscalculated where NV were, but also far from implausible that something slipped in their schedule.

Hardly matters and entirely daft to speculate much as impossible to prove
(As post above notes, all else isn't equal in terms of historical competency, and this isn't at all bad.).

They said specifically they were ahead of Nvidia mainstream products...
 

Olecki

Member
Jun 8, 2015
32
0
6
Remember that was the cooler designed by nVidia for its "Founder's Edition". People are joking to themselves if they think this was an actual leak. It was done on purpose to generate hype.
Cooler shroud was only example, but with RX 480 is absolutely nothing. I don't remember any electronic mass product launched without any leaks last years.
 

Krteq

Senior member
May 22, 2015
993
672
136
Cooler shroud was only example, but with RX 480 is absolutely nothing. I don't remember any electronic mass product launched without any leaks last years.
Hmm, what about RV770 based cards?
 

flopper

Senior member
Dec 16, 2005
739
19
76
One thing makes me wonder - if AMD is planning to have sufficient volumen RX 480 on shelves at release day (29.06 - technically still Q2) now all AiB should producing cards with large quantities, but there are absolutely no leaks - photos, custom coolers, more and more footprints in benchmarks done by different vendors, anything. I don't believe that in this times it's even possible, especially for product directed to mainstream. For GTX 1080 we have cooling shroud photos leaked over one month before NV presentation and nearly 2 months before launch. For Polaris it's still nothing.

Tight ship no leaks is a good thing.
 

maddie

Diamond Member
Jul 18, 2010
4,787
4,771
136
One thing makes me wonder - if AMD is planning to have sufficient volumen RX 480 on shelves at release day (29.06 - technically still Q2) now all AiB should producing cards with large quantities, but there are absolutely no leaks - photos, custom coolers, more and more footprints in benchmarks done by different vendors, anything. I don't believe that in this times it's even possible, especially for product directed to mainstream. For GTX 1080 we have cooling shroud photos leaked over one month before NV presentation and nearly 2 months before launch. For Polaris it's still nothing.
This also had me thinking on what could be influencing this apparent situation.

I assume that yields and performance is as planned as there appears to be a very confident RTG team, whenever we get information on Polaris. They really believe that they have a winning hand.

For certain the $199 price was a complete surprise to many, even though a few here allowed for that exact possibility and were ridiculed by most.
The only way to prevent leaks if you have a big surprise is to reduce third party involvement to the minimum. Whether that's a good decision or not, I can't say. I guess we'll see what comes soon.
 

maddie

Diamond Member
Jul 18, 2010
4,787
4,771
136
They said specifically they were ahead of Nvidia mainstream products...
Exactly. The actual quote in a Venturebeat interview with Koduri was this.

"We believe we’re several months ahead of this transition, especially for the notebook and the mainstream market."

AFAIK, this is still true.
 

tential

Diamond Member
May 13, 2008
7,355
642
121
Exactly. The actual quote in a Venturebeat interview with Koduri was this.

"We believe we’re several months ahead of this transition, especially for the notebook and the mainstream market."

AFAIK, this is still true.
It's almost as if people completely forgot about product segmentation this generation. I wonder if we'll expect Gp106 to be faster than GP104.....
 

Bacon1

Diamond Member
Feb 14, 2016
3,430
1,018
91
Nvidia has also hardly released its top end card. Its obvious that they did a fast release (hell even made you pay an extra $100 for shitty boards + cooler as the "FE"). They've sold what, a few thousand tops? Its pretty much paper launch with the low to nonexistent availability. Newegg getting 100 cards from a manufacturer???

The marketshare Polaris is aiming for is 2-3 digit millions. They are also prepping cards for Apple, the next consoles, and laptops

If AMD released Polaris like Nvidia released Pascal it would be disaster.

AMD has said since January that Polaris was aimed at 390/970+ performance for mainstream pricing. That is exactly what they are delivering.
 

maddie

Diamond Member
Jul 18, 2010
4,787
4,771
136
AMD has to be more aggressive on price because they're not targeting the top of the market with Polaris. Nvidia can charge whatever they want since you can't buy a faster card right now and they have low levels of supply so they might as well take whatever they can get as selling at a so-called "fair" price doesn't do them any good.

I think that if yields were better, AMD would be talking about their $300+ 480X, but they couldn't get enough chips that had enough active CUs at a high enough clock speed to sell a $300 chip. I think Polaris 10 has the capacity to compete with the 1070, but not when fabbed on Global Foundries 14 nm node.



Q2 is a 3 month window. I think AMD would have liked to have been out early Q2 in an ideal world (yields were good and no production difficulties) but knew better than to bet on that. Realistically we're looking at what should really be called an early Q3 launch.

I'd like to think that AMD is just being coy with Polaris and avoiding tipping their hand to Nvidia any sooner than possible, but it's more realistic that Global Foundries dropped the ball again and AMD is trying to save face. Since GF is using Samsung's tech it at least gives AMD the ability to get wafers from Samsung that should allow for a better product. Some part of me thinks Polaris was designed as a low power efficiency part because AMD had no confidence in Global Foundries to allow them to make high performance silicon.
A fantastic amount of I think in your post. This is fantasy writing at it's best. Not a single scrap of supporting data.

For one example, you wrote.

Some part of me thinks Polaris was designed as a low power efficiency part because AMD had no confidence in Global Foundries to allow them to make high performance silicon.

One can ask, where is the supporting evidence leading to this belief? If you add some sort of evidence, you might be taken seriously. I see nothing, and every other I think by you has no evidence either. Why this is being said is very confusing to me. Is this forum a fantasy site now?

In the end though, I suppose you're actually helping AMD by saying these things and negatively influencing beliefs, as the full release will have a greater shock effect and more positively affect opinions and mindshare. Just like the proposed by a few $199 price, was also ridiculed and ended up having a huge positive shock value.
 

sirmo

Golden Member
Oct 10, 2011
1,014
391
136
One can ask, where is the supporting evidence leading to this belief? If you add some sort of evidence, you might be taken seriously. I see nothing, and every other I think by you has no evidence either. Why this is being said is very confusing to me. Is this forum a fantasy site now?
Yup. It's also particularly contradicted by Samsung's and GloFo's agreement to offer dual sourcing to their customers, pooling all their 14nm fabs together, which implies there is no difference between products made on this process whether it be made in a GloFo's NY fab or other Samsung fabs.

Someone posted a brochure about this while back.
 

krumme

Diamond Member
Oct 9, 2009
5,956
1,595
136
Well AMD did show stuff a long time ago and (iirc) say that were ahead of NV by a few months when they did so.

And honestly if all else was equal, you'd have expected them to launch first/at least equal - significantly smaller chips and no need for early GDDR5X supply etc either. Even if it had just been the smaller polaris chip to chase notebooks, they'd have got some nice kudos out of it.

As it is they're behind GP100, all of GP104 and may not get far ahead of GP106. So something happened. Maybe AMD miscalculated where NV were, but also far from implausible that something slipped in their schedule.

Hardly matters and entirely daft to speculate much as impossible to prove
(As post above notes, all else isn't equal in terms of historical competency, and this isn't at all bad.).
I understand where you are going. And amd have been first by several months since at least 55nm with the 4770 as i recall.

But if you have followed the fairytale ppt from gf years back where 10nm was what 2016? I would never bet a companys excistence on that credibility. Its imo risky business to fab zen and your next gen gpu on gf but hey it looks like it will at least succeed as far as deadlines goes. And if freq and yield is there its ofcource a huge huge win because of wsa.

In perspective the few months +/÷ we talk here is utterly unimportant.
 

Sweepr

Diamond Member
May 12, 2006
5,148
1,142
131
They said specifically they were ahead of Nvidia mainstream products...

Are they 'several months' ahead of cut-down GP104 / GP106 (whatever comes next)? Not so sure.



Also he says 'especially', not 'exclusively' notebooks and the mainstream market.
 

Mopetar

Diamond Member
Jan 31, 2011
8,011
6,454
136
A fantastic amount of I think in your post. This is fantasy writing at it's best. Not a single scrap of supporting data.

For one example, you wrote.

Some part of me thinks Polaris was designed as a low power efficiency part because AMD had no confidence in Global Foundries to allow them to make high performance silicon.

The last part is pure speculation on my part and a lot of hyperbole, but you can't but look at recent history and see nothing but a String of failure on the part of GF. We know that Samsung's 14 nm process is good stuff because Apple used it for their SoCs and it performs as well as TSMC's 16 nm process. AMD likely did want to target performance/watt as that was a weakness in previous designs so it makes sense to shore up that while evolving the architecture, but at the same time they'd have to know that it would be foolish to trust GF to deliver a working process without any issues.

The only other conclusion you can draw from what information we have is that Polaris isn't a good architecture or can't scale up the clock at all. That seems far less likely than GF failing yet again. ATI/AMD has a history of designing good chips, especially ones that can punch above their weight class.

One can ask, where is the supporting evidence leading to this belief? If you add some sort of evidence, you might be taken seriously. I see nothing, and every other I think by you has no evidence either. Why this is being said is very confusing to me. Is this forum a fantasy site now?

I could dredge up all the rumor threads or other posts that have shown up over the past several months, but that doesn't change that AMD was demonstrating working hardware almost six months ago, along with all of the other information to suggest that they had a lead on Nvidia, by at least a few months. Nvidia probably believed it as well since they seemed to rush out of the gates with Pascal with limited supply and what amounts to a paper launch, never mind that AMD might be much the same.

As I've stated before, you're not going to get any evidence to the extent of a CxO or team lead talking about delays or bad news, so at best you get rumors of setbacks that may or may not be true.

Explain to me in what world it makes logical sense for steady rumors to suggest that AMD is months ahead of Nvidia on 14 nm only for them to launch a month later even though they're launching a smaller die which by all counts should mean better yields as well as more supply in general when they've likely got the entirety of GF's 14 nm production capacity to themselves whereas NV has to contend with several other companies buying supply from TSMC.

As I said, either they're being really coy because they've got a big surprise with a 480X that is uncut and clocks much higher, allowing it to trade blows with the 1070, or they've got a 480 that's still a great value at $200, but is being held back by issues at GF getting their 14 nm process working. GP104 is almost half again as large as Polaris 10, but Nvidia is selling uncut dies, so where's the full Polaris 10? I've said that AMD could very well be sandbagging to throw off Nvidia, but the other side of that is the process has issues that need to be sorted out.

Fantasy is believing that somehow everything is fine when the scraps of evidence and rumor point to it being the opposite.

In the end though, I suppose you're actually helping AMD by saying these things and negatively influencing beliefs, as the full release will have a greater shock effect and more positively affect opinions and mindshare. Just like the proposed by a few $199 price, was also ridiculed and ended up having a huge positive shock value.

From what we know about the 480 I think it's a great value. Adored had a video that did some math to conclude that the 480 probably only uses a little under 100W based on some claims that AMD had made during their presentation. Assuming that's true, it suggests that card has some definite OC potential simply due to the additional power that can be throw at it, but it could be a case of an immature process limiting the true potential of Polaris 10 at this point if it doesn't scale particularly well beyond the stock levels.

I'll probably get a 480, especially if there's a $229 8 GB version, just because the performance/$ is too good and I'm gaming at 1080 right now, but I hope that AMD uses Polaris to fulfill their wafer obligations from Global Foundries and uses Samsung for Vega because the evidence right now points to GF making a pig's breakfast of another node.
 

maddie

Diamond Member
Jul 18, 2010
4,787
4,771
136
Are they 'several months' ahead of cut-down GP104 / GP106 (whatever comes next)? Not so sure.



Also he says 'especially', not 'exclusively' notebooks and the mainstream market.
I think I understand your confusion.

He says.

"We believe we’re several months ahead of this transition, especially for the notebook and the mainstream market."

Transition in this case is the introduction of 14/16 nm generation to replace the 28nm one. Not as you might be thinking, first to 14/16 nm. When the replacement of all present GPUs have taken place, the transition will be complete.

Understand now. It makes sense, as it means that AMD expects to have the full range earlier than Nvidia especially for the notebook and mainstream. One can assume that Vega might be also on track to beat Nvidia big die to market.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
sale-70-410-exam    | Exam-200-125-pdf    | we-sale-70-410-exam    | hot-sale-70-410-exam    | Latest-exam-700-603-Dumps    | Dumps-98-363-exams-date    | Certs-200-125-date    | Dumps-300-075-exams-date    | hot-sale-book-C8010-726-book    | Hot-Sale-200-310-Exam    | Exam-Description-200-310-dumps?    | hot-sale-book-200-125-book    | Latest-Updated-300-209-Exam    | Dumps-210-260-exams-date    | Download-200-125-Exam-PDF    | Exam-Description-300-101-dumps    | Certs-300-101-date    | Hot-Sale-300-075-Exam    | Latest-exam-200-125-Dumps    | Exam-Description-200-125-dumps    | Latest-Updated-300-075-Exam    | hot-sale-book-210-260-book    | Dumps-200-901-exams-date    | Certs-200-901-date    | Latest-exam-1Z0-062-Dumps    | Hot-Sale-1Z0-062-Exam    | Certs-CSSLP-date    | 100%-Pass-70-383-Exams    | Latest-JN0-360-real-exam-questions    | 100%-Pass-4A0-100-Real-Exam-Questions    | Dumps-300-135-exams-date    | Passed-200-105-Tech-Exams    | Latest-Updated-200-310-Exam    | Download-300-070-Exam-PDF    | Hot-Sale-JN0-360-Exam    | 100%-Pass-JN0-360-Exams    | 100%-Pass-JN0-360-Real-Exam-Questions    | Dumps-JN0-360-exams-date    | Exam-Description-1Z0-876-dumps    | Latest-exam-1Z0-876-Dumps    | Dumps-HPE0-Y53-exams-date    | 2017-Latest-HPE0-Y53-Exam    | 100%-Pass-HPE0-Y53-Real-Exam-Questions    | Pass-4A0-100-Exam    | Latest-4A0-100-Questions    | Dumps-98-365-exams-date    | 2017-Latest-98-365-Exam    | 100%-Pass-VCS-254-Exams    | 2017-Latest-VCS-273-Exam    | Dumps-200-355-exams-date    | 2017-Latest-300-320-Exam    | Pass-300-101-Exam    | 100%-Pass-300-115-Exams    |
http://www.portvapes.co.uk/    | http://www.portvapes.co.uk/    |