The RX 480 will have the same performance an OC headroom as the 390 and 80% of Pascal's performance/watt.
I'm expecting closer to R9 390X performance at stock, though admittedly that's a fairly small difference. At the default 1266 MHz boost clock, it should have almost as much raw power (TFlops) as a 390X, so even discounting any major architectural improvements since GCN 1.1, it should be as good as 390X at a minimum.
Overclocking headroom should be better, since the 390X is basically a factory OC'd card to begin with. Hawaii usually couldn't overclock higher than 1100-1150 MHz (less than 10% over 390X), while we've already seen leaks indicating that P10 should be able to hit 1500 MHz without much trouble (~18% over stock RX 480). In practice, I expect that to translate to about 10%-12% additional performance.
Also, a lot of people are placing too much stock in 3DMark scores. While it's not insanely vendor-biased (nothing like, say, Project CARS in that regard), it does tend to lean a few percentage points towards Nvidia. R9 390X beats GTX 980 at 1080p in TPU's combined real-world gaming benchmarks, while it falls behind by a couple percent in 3DMark. Perhaps more importantly, this is just a single number, while a major real-world consideration is minimum FPS. Based on the Hitman demo and AMD's mention of a "primitive discard accelerator", there's some reason to hope that minimum FPS might see improvements on Polaris. That means a better gaming experience at given settings even if
average FPS is similar to older products. I'm interested to see what TechReport has to say about frame latencies on this card (once they work through their review backlog).
As for perf/watt, I think it will come reasonably close to GP104 (GTX 1070/1080) and beat GP106 when that comes out. GTX 1080 peaks at roughly 185W during gaming. R9 390X is about 60% of 1080's performance, so if we assume RX 480 also lands there, then it would need peak gaming power of 111W or lower to match 1080's perf/watt. Reference R9 270X only
peaked at 122W in gaming, and with this chip being similarly sized and having reasonably conservative stock clocks compared to what the silicon is capable of, I would not be surprised to see similar results. This would mean probably about 90% of GTX 1080's perf/watt.
It'll be a good product, not incredible, but good (TPU gives it an 8.9), but a major engineering loss for AMD. They'll have to work overtime on Vega to even compete with GP104. Maybe they'll pull off another Hawaii - losing in performance/mm^2 with Tahiti, then pulling ahead decisively, but that's unlikely to happen.
That's an oddly specific prediction about the TPU score. Just to be sure I double-checked their site and found nothing. Even tried manually formulating a URL to see if they maybe had it posted but just not linked, but got a 404.
I don't see how P10 is an engineering failure. Similar die size and power consumption to Pitcairn, with roughly 2x the performance in both compute and gaming, plus a full complement of modern video processing features. What's the problem? If GP106 is half a GP104 (the most likely scenario, IMO) then P10 should beat GP106 in both performance and perf/watt.
I'll be very unhappy on the 29th when when we see this and the AMD bashers are vindicated. Unfortunately, that's been the trend, and the leaks aren't giving me too much hope.
Expecting that P10 would match 1070 was always a stretch. At this point it's fairly clear that isn't happening, at least not at this time. AMD never promised any such thing.