I think they're either going to enter bankruptcy restructuring, coming out much more lean and focused (strictly low, to moderate power laptop CPU's and lean mid-range GPU's) or their going to enter bankruptcy liquidation, splitting up and selling off their IP. I don't think any new products, no matter how great, can save them at this point. They are too far buried and have cut too many resources to stay viable.
You cannot be serious?! I know you follow stocks as a hobby but you cannot possibly be making such statements without doing an objective financial analysis, looking at the big picture and talking to AMD's management to forecast and vet their projections over the next 12-18 months. Since you haven't done any of these things, your statements are an opinion with hardly any tangible information backing it. Frankly, you don't know when they are launching R9 300 series, what revenue its projected to bring, at what profit margins, etc. You don't know when AMD is launching Zen in 2016, AMD's Nintendo's NX console revenues, etc. Also, the slower sales of PS4/XB1 consoles are fully expected since Q1-2 tend to be slow sales in consoles (esp. Q1). You know in Q4 2015 PS4/XB1 will sell like hot cakes which will provide AMD with a big increase in profits in that division. You haven't even accounted for that. But let's skip all of these details and focus on these big points you missed:
1) Cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities were
$906 million at the end of the quarter, down $134 million from the end of the prior quarter.
http://www.hpcwire.com/off-the-wire/amd-reports-2015-first-quarter-results/
AMD can survive
5 consecutive quarters with losses of $180 million, but we know there is Zen in 2016, R9 300 series this year. However, anyone in finance understands for a capital intensive consumer products business what matters is not net income or net loss but movements in cash flows. You can have a $180 million loss but if $75 million of that are
accounting impairment charges (i.e., this is a write-down on the books but not a real loss of cash since the cash has been lost during the purchase), the actual negative cash flow is
not $180 million. Does AMD's net loss include a non-cash adjustment? Yes, it does!
2)
"AMD recorded $75 million of special charges in Q1 2015 primarily related to impairment of previously acquired intangible assets."
This adjustment has nothing to do with existing cash flows. It's a non-factor. I am just using this as 1 example to show you that you need to arrive at your net adjusted cash flows for Q1 2015 to understand the
real loss of cash for the firm. If the loss is only $115 million, then AMD can survive $906 / $115 = 7.8 quarters of similar losses it suffered in Q1 2015.
Let's look at the 'big picture' and try to connect the dots:
Who are the big investment players in AMD and GLOBALFOUNDRIES?
1) "
ATIC owns unlisted GlobalFoundries, having completed a buyout of joint venture partner Advanced Micro Devices Inc in March 2012. ATIC is controlled by Abu Dhabi state investment fund
Mubadala.
"We have received commitments from
Mubadala for an additional $9-10 billion for expansion of our facility in New York," ATIC Chief Executive Ibrahim Ajami told Reuters." ~
Jan 3, 2014
2) "
Mubadala now has a 15 percent stake in AMD, and unexercised warrants for additional stock purchases bring its total holdings to about
19 percent. Its latest re-investment in the company has helped ease concerns about AMD's liquidity." ~
Dec 4, 2012
3) "AMD entered into a
fifth amendment to our Wafer Supply Agreement with GLOBALFOUNDRIES. AMD expects to purchase approximately
$1 billion in wafers in 2015, in line with the company’s current market expectations." ~
April 16, 2015
You don't need to be a CFA or a Corporate Finance professional to connect the dots. GLOBALFOUNDRIES benefits greatly from purchases of AMD. AMD relies on GLOBALFOUNDRIES as a manufacturing partner. Mubadala invested billions of dollars across both of these firms.
Mubadala has an investment portfolio valued at
$66 billion.
AMD is not going anywhere because GloFo would instantly lose a client that brings them $1 billion+ of revenue annually. For Mubadala, one of the largest shareholders, they will lose MORE money if AMD goes bankrupt than to give AMD $200-300 million capital injection.
That's why we can never have any serious financial discussions on this forum since people just go into 'doom and gloom' mode but aren't connecting the dots. I suppose it's a lot easier to jump on the 'doom and gloom' bandwagon than perform a business valuation analysis and actually prove (or disprove) if AMD will go bankrupt. Currently the financial indications do not point to this situation.
That Red Team hyped that AMD CPU and GPU will gain a lot from this but as always AMD lies and over promise always plays a big role in their market shares and that is why AMD is all most dead company and majority don't give dam about it.
Console sale revenues/profits will pick up in the 2H of the year. You should know if you follow the seasonality of console sales. Also, unless you are a chartered business valuator, CFA/CA, CFO or have real world knowledge and experience valuing firms, your opinion on the financial matters is basically 'baseless.' Don't take it as an offense. Frankly, the first thing taught at any top business school is that net income and net loss are metrics used by unsophisticated investors. When you are using a DCF model for valuing a firm, you need to arrive at your net adjusted
cash flows. You can have a company with $500 million of net losses a year and it survives for 100 years because Net Income / Loss is an accounting measurement for
financial reporting purposes, which means that on its own it tells very little about the movement of actual cash flows.