AMD presents future plans at investor meetings

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blastingcap

Diamond Member
Sep 16, 2010
6,654
5
76
"Embedded/Semi-Custom on-track to be 20% of revenue by Q4-13"

I understand we are supposed to read that and just assume that is a good thing, but is it really?

It is easy to get embedded revenue to be 20% of overall revenue, just keep shrinking the revenue you get from "traditional computing" and voila, your embedded revenue as a percentage of overall revenue is growing!

That was my first thought, too.
 

AtenRa

Lifer
Feb 2, 2009
14,003
3,361
136
"Embedded/Semi-Custom on-track to be 20% of revenue by Q4-13"

I understand we are supposed to read that and just assume that is a good thing, but is it really?

It is easy to get embedded revenue to be 20% of overall revenue, just keep shrinking the revenue you get from "traditional computing" and voila, your embedded revenue as a percentage of overall revenue is growing!

That was my first thought, too.


And if that makes you profitable is it bad or good ?? embedded have huge margins thus higher profits. Im not saying thats what will happen, just a thought.
 

ShintaiDK

Lifer
Apr 22, 2012
20,378
145
106
And if that makes you profitable is it bad or good ?? embedded have huge margins thus higher profits. Im not saying thats what will happen, just a thought.

Since when? You seem to confuse certain parts of the segment. I dont think the Raspberry Pi for example got huge margins.
 

Ajay

Lifer
Jan 8, 2001
16,094
8,106
136
That's not the kind of upgrade I am talking about. The server guys in the audience know well what I am referring to and how it impacts their purchasing decisions when it comes to the confidence they have in their supplier's maintaining a continuing presence in same marketspace for after-sales support and so forth.

There is a reason AMD's server market share is as low as it is, don't fault me for recognizing that reality nor the reality of why companies have a vested interest in clouding the future of their product lineups.

If mindshare and market momentum were not a factor in motivating sales then marketing would not have invested as much as it did into JFAMD's compensation package to have him busy himself making blogs and PR videos for a product that wasn't purchasable at the time.

You act like what I am touching on is impossible or irrelevant, AMD's own spending says otherwise. If there wasn't a psychological need for customers to think that AMD will be in the big-core server market indefinitely then there would not be a need to show such roadmaps to analysts and customers in the first place.

AMD is trying to avoid Nokia's fate, Nokia announced Symbian support was going away in the future only to watch market demand for their still supported Symbian phones completely dry up in the channel. Nokia did right by the customer, letting them know the lay of the land, but did not do right by their shareholders who got socked in the gut. AMD is doing the opposite, and good for them.

Actually, I'm pretty sure that AMD is still developing an Excavator CMT core:

1) They will need to update Kaveri. I think desktop/laptop x86 APUs will be important to AMD's survival. After Excavator, AMD may be able to bring out an evolution of the Jaguar line to take over (basically, they've already forked that line, and they can just extend that in the future and have a suitable replacement).

2) Even a small portion of the server market could still be valuable to AMD, so long as their costs go down enough to make it a profitable segment.

So they probably are not deceiving customers at all. It just the EX isn't going to show up till 2015 at the earliest (on 20nm, or if a miracle occurs, 14XM).

AMD is also targeting emerging markets better, so they may be able to expand the server market and get some growth that way. Sadly, they won't be taking in huge margins like Intel, anything > 50% is a big deal for AMD.

This is an optimistic assessment, it depends on world wide economic growth. If that doesn't happen, CH11 will determine AMD's product line future.
 

Idontcare

Elite Member
Oct 10, 1999
21,118
59
91
If nVidia's Volta will have stacked on chip in 2016 then it's likely AMD will be pushing for the same thing. Imagine an APU with several GB of 1TB/s memory shared between the CPU/GPU. That would directly solve any bandwidth problems and allow AMD to put absurd amounts of GPU performance on chip.

Assuming there isn't some massive overheating issue and assuming AMD can survive that long...

Nvidia is doing that with TSMC. Not an option for AMD unless they continue to fab the APU's with TSMC.

I'm sure GloFo has chip stacking on their roadmap to, but so too is 28nm but its nearly 2yrs behind TSMC so that isn't exactly confidence building.

And if that makes you profitable is it bad or good ?? embedded have huge margins thus higher profits. Im not saying thats what will happen, just a thought.

Good thing for shareholders, bad news for employees.

Actually, I'm pretty sure that AMD is still developing an Excavator CMT core:

1) They will need to update Kaveri. I think desktop/laptop x86 APUs will be important to AMD's survival. After Excavator, AMD may be able to bring out an evolution of the Jaguar line to take over (basically, they've already forked that line, and they can just extend that in the future and have a suitable replacement).

2) Even a small portion of the server market could still be valuable to AMD, so long as their costs go down enough to make it a profitable segment.

So they probably are not deceiving customers at all. It just the EX isn't going to show up till 2015 at the earliest (on 20nm, or if a miracle occurs, 14XM).

AMD is also targeting emerging markets better, so they may be able to expand the server market and get some growth that way. Sadly, they won't be taking in huge margins like Intel, anything > 50% is a big deal for AMD.

This is an optimistic assessment, it depends on world wide economic growth. If that doesn't happen, CH11 will determine AMD's product line future.

14XM isn't applicable to AMD, it is intentionally limited to mobile chips.

This is where AMD will really meet a brick-wall because customers of TSMC who use TSMC's 20nm will be able to get the half-node FinFET shrink to 16nm across all devices, but customers of GloFo won't be able to do the same for 20nm -> 14XM.

So AMD will get to continue to pay for exclusivity waivers or abandon certain marketspaces.

As for excavator...as much as I want AMD to stay in the big-core race I can't help but think that is the worst thing they could do to themselves and their efforts to make inroads elsewhere.

Dividing up R&D dollars, spreading themselves ever thinner and thinner, is a recipe for getting nothing done across the board.



^ No room for Excavator unless AMD wants to stay on the left-side. Doing "all of the above" is not financially feasible.
 

Ajay

Lifer
Jan 8, 2001
16,094
8,106
136
And if that makes you profitable is it bad or good ?? embedded have huge margins thus higher profits. Im not saying thats what will happen, just a thought.

Since when? You seem to confuse certain parts of the segment. I dont think the Raspberry Pi for example got huge margins.

Embedded has higher profit margins when you have the 'it' chip that everyone wants and you are capacity constrained (actually or on purpose). Otherwise it's just a commodity market. From the slides, it looks like AMD want's to provide customized APUs which would fit into the former bracket.

Certainly, this will appeal to some customers looking for an edge in their markets (communications and thin client markets, if the thin client comeback is for real and sustained). Industrial controls is an interesting market at the high-end, fully programmable market (as opposed to PLCs, etc. - which reminds me of how much I hate ladder programming).

Lastly, not so much to you, but the third graphic showing a 40-50% market share is including the HD server market (Ultra HD, IMHO) and ultra-low power portables.

At first blush the isn't a huge overreach, if Rory has the skills to get everyone walking lockstep in the right direction and if AMD has sufficient marketing funds to pursue these areas in earnest. That's two ifs and I have two more to add.

AMD will need application engineers specializing in these markets and $$ to support the design and back end operations on all of this. Suddenly, we need a company the size of AMD a couple of years ago to pull all of this off. So an awful lot of things need to go right for them for this to work (and it will take time to develop this system). They are tying to become like a semi-custom ASIC design house, except with x86 CPUs and iGPUs at their core at least at the start.

This seems too ambitious to me. AMD will need all of it's resources to get in the Ultra HD server and Ultra low-power portables markets to have any chance at successes. And that's what they should stick to, IMHO.

So bottom line, the expectations are too grandiose, but some of this may just be pie-in-the-sky stuff to try and show investors just how capably AMD is (which is BS, IMHO).
 

Ajay

Lifer
Jan 8, 2001
16,094
8,106
136
14XM isn't applicable to AMD, it is intentionally limited to mobile chips.

This is where AMD will really meet a brick-wall because customers of TSMC who use TSMC's 20nm will be able to get the half-node FinFET shrink to 16nm across all devices, but customers of GloFo won't be able to do the same for 20nm -> 14XM.

So AMD will get to continue to pay for exclusivity waivers or abandon certain marketspaces.

Geez, GloFo is just squeezing blood from the AMD nickel! If AMD does intend to produce any high power CPU, 20nm will definitely mark the end of AMD "big-cores"

As for excavator...as much as I want AMD to stay in the big-core race I can't help but think that is the worst thing they could do to themselves and their efforts to make inroads elsewhere.

Dividing up R&D dollars, spreading themselves ever thinner and thinner, is a recipe for getting nothing done across the board.
I think of it sort of like trickle charging a battery (on the design side), the thing that they won't be able to slowly build up to, I would think, would be the masks, production integration and, re-spins (which would a killer for AMD).

I would appreciate your comments how well BEOL can be slowed down (or dragged out if you prefer) without costs going up instead of being spread out.



^ No room for Excavator unless AMD wants to stay on the left-side. Doing "all of the above" is not financially feasible.

I guess once we see Kaveri, and see a roadmap for Jaguar, then it will be easier to see if Excavator is needed or not. I'm just not sure AMD can abruptly extract itself from big core x86, it seems to me they need transitional products to bring in revenue (and with a lower cost structure, some profits, or at least zero sum to maintain cash flow - I guess now would be a good time for one of the finance guys to chime in).
 
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AtenRa

Lifer
Feb 2, 2009
14,003
3,361
136
The Celeron G540 can be had as embedded x86 as example.

Why dont you show the high margins? Is it real or just made up?

http://www.amd.com/us/Documents/RSeries_ProductBrief.pdf

AMD R-464L
Part # : RE460LSIE44HJE
CPU Core frequency : 2.3/3.2 GHz
iGPU :AMD Radeon HD 7660G
686MHz/
497MHz
TDP : 35W

http://avnetexpress.avnet.com/store...=-1&storeId=500201&listIndex=-1&page=1&rank=8

1-$200.0000

25-$194.4400

100+-$189.1900

I believe everyone will agree that those are high margines
 
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ShintaiDK

Lifer
Apr 22, 2012
20,378
145
106
http://www.amd.com/us/Documents/RSeries_ProductBrief.pdf

AMD R-464L
Part # : RE460LSIE44HJE
CPU Core frequency : 2.3/3.2 GHz
iGPU :AMD Radeon HD 7660G
686MHz/
497MHz
TDP : 35W

http://avnetexpress.avnet.com/store...=-1&storeId=500201&listIndex=-1&page=1&rank=6

84-$272.2200

100+-$264.8600

I believe everyone will agree that those are high margines

Oh the cherry picking again.

And how much of their embedded shipments does that fit? And how many are cheap Bobcats?

You simply took a single product (Highest priced you could find I guess.) and generalized it for the entire segment.
 
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AtenRa

Lifer
Feb 2, 2009
14,003
3,361
136
Oh the cherry picking again.

And how much of their embedded shipments does that fit? And how many are cheap Bobcats?

You simply took a single product (Highest priced you could find I guess.) and generalized it for the entire segment.


AMD R-268D
Part # : RE268DDEC23HJE
Dual Core
CPU Core frequency : 3.0/2.5 GHz
iGPU :AMD Radeon HD 7420G
640MHz/
470MHz
TDP : 35W

http://avnetexpress.avnet.com/store...=-1&storeId=500201&listIndex=-1&page=1&rank=2

1-$121.4300

25-$118.0600

100+-$114.8600




For reference,

AMD Trinity A4-5300 on newegg = $54,99
 

Phynaz

Lifer
Mar 13, 2006
10,140
819
126
If im not mistaken, it says they saving 20M per quarter(80M per year) by cutting off spending's for future R&D (SOI etc). It is exactly what we were talking in the other thread.

You are mistaken, it says they are reducing, not eliminating.
 

Pilum

Member
Aug 27, 2012
182
3
81
Oh the cherry picking again.

And how much of their embedded shipments does that fit? And how many are cheap Bobcats?

You simply took a single product (Highest priced you could find I guess.) and generalized it for the entire segment.
Considering that the parts have been available since 2Q2012 (according to the linked AMD document), and that AMDs revenue has been tanking since then... yeah, the shipments seem to be unimportant. For embedded it's probably the same story as for the rest of AMDs lineup: best solution for a very small percentage of use cases, otherwise pretty useless compared to the competition.
 

Homeles

Platinum Member
Dec 9, 2011
2,580
0
0
AMD must have hired new graphic designers for their marketing department. My eyes aren't bleeding after reading that press deck.
If nVidia's Volta will have stacked on chip in 2016 then it's likely AMD will be pushing for the same thing. Imagine an APU with several GB of 1TB/s memory shared between the CPU/GPU. That would directly solve any bandwidth problems and allow AMD to put absurd amounts of GPU performance on chip.

Assuming there isn't some massive overheating issue and assuming AMD can survive that long...
AMD's involvement and interest in stacked memory solutions is well-documented:

http://semiaccurate.com/2011/10/27/amd-far-future-prototype-gpu-pictured/
http://sites.amd.com/us/Documents/TFE2011_006HYN.pdf

There's also a Micron slide out there featuring an AMD processor with some form of stacked or embedded memory on it.
 
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ShintaiDK

Lifer
Apr 22, 2012
20,378
145
106
AMD R-268D
Part # : RE268DDEC23HJE
Dual Core
CPU Core frequency : 3.0/2.5 GHz
iGPU :AMD Radeon HD 7420G
640MHz/
470MHz
TDP : 35W

http://avnetexpress.avnet.com/store...=-1&storeId=500201&listIndex=-1&page=1&rank=2

1-$121.4300

25-$118.0600

100+-$114.8600




For reference,

AMD Trinity A4-5300 on newegg = $54,99

Why are you comparing a 35W FS1r2 (Mobile) chip with a 65W FM2 (Desktop) chip?

Also you can easily find a cheaper place:
http://www.pcsuperstore.com/products/11797626-AMD-RE268DDEC23HJE.html
$96.32
 
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ShintaiDK

Lifer
Apr 22, 2012
20,378
145
106
Considering that the parts have been available since 2Q2012 (according to the linked AMD document), and that AMDs revenue has been tanking since then... yeah, the shipments seem to be unimportant. For embedded it's probably the same story as for the rest of AMDs lineup: best solution for a very small percentage of use cases, otherwise pretty useless compared to the competition.

Indeed. The -37% YoY didnt happen due to better or higher margin products.
 

AtenRa

Lifer
Feb 2, 2009
14,003
3,361
136
Why are you comparing a 35W FS1r2 (Mobile) chip with a 65W FM2 (Desktop) chip?

Also you can easily find a cheaper place:
http://www.pcsuperstore.com/products/11797626-AMD-RE268DDEC23HJE.html
$96.32

Why dont you show the high margins? Is it real or just made up?

You asked for it, I gave you the products

The die of the AMD embedded R-series is the same Quad core Trinity that used in the desktop parts.

So when the Desktop part (same die, dual core product) sells for $55 and the embedded product (same die, dual core product) sells for $96.32 and up, then you have huge margins and more profits.

I dont believe is that difficult to understand.
 

ShintaiDK

Lifer
Apr 22, 2012
20,378
145
106
You asked for it, I gave you the products

The die of the AMD embedded R-series is the same Quad core Trinity that used in the desktop parts.

So when the Desktop part (same die, dual core product) sells for $55 and the embedded product (same die, dual core product) sells for $96.32 and up, then you have huge margins and more profits.

I dont believe is that difficult to understand.

Its different binning. 35W vs 65W. You are simply being manipulative now.
 

lagokc

Senior member
Mar 27, 2013
808
1
41
AMD's involvement and interest in stacked memory solutions is well-documented:
It's not surprising. Without going to stacked memory they'd be completely uncompetitive in the standalone GPU space. But bring that tech to an APU and AMD might finally have an advantage over Intel (short of Intel actually starting to produce competitive graphics components which in that timeframe isn't impossible either).
 

mrmt

Diamond Member
Aug 18, 2012
3,974
0
76
Its different binning. 35W vs 65W. You are simply being manipulative now.

Why are you discussing a number taken from a retail store when talking about embedded CPU? When you talk about embedded, and talk about oem worth something, you are talking about thousands, or even millions of units spread in a spam of years. You don't buy in 1000 batches, but enter in agreements of years of duration with the cpu manufacturer himself.

This is why embedded is low margin. You don't need bleeding edge, you don't need huge quantities upfront, it is always like "slow but reliable". And this always commanded low margins.

What Atenra is arguing is akin to expect that margins for a given component in a contract to supply a car manufacturer are huge because he only finds exorbitant prices in his local store.
 
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