A new architecture, a new process node which is much closer to Intel's latest, and hopefully a return to competitive CPU performance and perf/W. It's got to do better than the current outdated Piledriver garbage, that's for sure.
But it also needs to do better than SB, IB, HW, BW and close to if not as good as SKL. Else its just another product that people wont buy unless its priced dirt cheap. And cheap is not going to happen with a 14nm node.
And remember, its targetted for servers.
Again, its one of those hopeless miracles that the next AMD product will change it all. We heard that story for 10 years now.
What marketshare will Zen also be released to? The CPU/APU revenue combined today is what, 250M$ a quarter?
If we ignore the AMD Bears (you know who ) - How can you not say that AMD is in relatively large trouble considering Carrizo has to have an unparalleled level of design wins comparing to recent history(5 years) to even dent Q3 earnings?
AMD Q&A said:http://seekingalpha.com/article/333...u-on-q2-2015-results-earnings-call-transcript
(...)
Stacy A. Rasgon - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC
Right. I guess I mean, you're telling me you feel good about Q4, but I mean, let's be honest, you haven't been able to forecast a month and a half out, let alone two quarters. It just seems to me like there's a setup here for more bad things to happen if that market doesn't stabilize. And even if it does stabilize, I mean, your business has been let's be honest, it hasn't been stable, versus where the market's been either. I'm just wondering what the risk is, given the way you're setting up inventories and setting up expectations for that Q4 ramp.
Lisa T. Su - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director
Yes, Stacy, so look, that's a fair comment. I'll take that. Now if I tell you what I see going forward, we'll give you the best information we have at this point in time. So the Semi-Custom business, Q3 will be the peak. We need a few more data points to really call Q4 correct. But so far, what we see is a solid market on the Semi-Custom side. On the Computing and Graphics side, there are basically think about it as four pieces to the business. So we have OEM processors, we have channel processors, we have graphics, consumer graphics and then we have professional graphics.
So amongst those four segments from what we see, we are being a bit cautious on Q3, just given we need to see exactly how the OEMs ramp; the Windows 10 launch, we think Windows 10 is a good product, but we need to see how that launches. As we go into holiday, we believe we'll make progress in graphics. We believe we'll make progress in professional graphics. I've said that the channel looks like it's healthier for us and we need to see how the OEM demand looks. But those are the ways I think about Computing and Graphics. So clearly we're not happy with the performance in Q2 but as we look forward, we need to manage the business the way we see it and this is how we see it today.
(...)
And yes, of course Zen could well fail. It could well succeed. Could be an Athlon 64, could be another Bulldozer and sink the company. We don't know either way yet, so quit the relentless negativity.
Zen won't sink the company, that honor fell to the CMT family. The question is whether Zen will be enough to salvage something out of this company or not.
Because of the unparalleled low number of designs when compared to Jaguar and Brazos. But is AMD confident that the numbers will add up with Carrizo? Let's hear what Lisa has to say:
i have seen this news many times before and nothing changes much so amd and intel will be fine
As sweet and desirable as people paint a monopoly for either Intel or Nvidia, the truth is that AMD adds a tremendous draw and value to the market as a whole by being an alternative. [/I]
There is a massive caverat. And its that Windows 10 is not only a free update, but also one that is ditributed via the internet. Those that traditionally would buy a new PC for a new Windows version wont.
It only has to come close to Skylake in ST performance, meaning around IB levels or so. Today the difference between AMD vs Intel ST performance is far greater than that, which is why AMD CPUs are not selling so well.But it also needs to do better than SB, IB, HW, BW and close to if not as good as SKL. Else its just another product that people wont buy unless its priced dirt cheap. And cheap is not going to happen with a 14nm node.
It only has to come close to Skylake in ST performance, meaning around IB levels or so. Today the difference between AMD vs Intel ST performance is far greater than that, which is why AMD CPUs are not selling so well.
In MT performance we know it'll be much better, because Zen will be 8 cores vs 4 for Intel on mainstream desktop CPUs. That is unless AMD decides to price 8 core Zen so it's effectively placed in the HEDT segment, and thus should be compared to Intel HEDT CPUs. But that does not seem reasonable, since AMD won't sell many Zen CPUs then, and they know what.
Intel ST performance with Intel clocks and Intel core scaling... There are a lot of assumptions in your post.
There is a massive caverat. And its that Windows 10 is not only a free update, but also one that is ditributed via the internet. Those that traditionally would buy a new PC for a new Windows version wont.
And even then, what does AMD have to offer? Nothing. It s not like anything changes from today.
Sure, what else do you expect? We don't have any more info on Zen do we?
We know that it will have approximately 40% higher IPC than Excavator, and have 8 cores. Clock frequency is unknown, but we can make rough guesstimates based on the process tech used and basic aspects of the uArch.
Sure, what else do you expect? We don't have any more info on Zen do we?
We know that it will have approximately 40% higher IPC than Excavator, and have 8 cores. Clock frequency is unknown, but we can make rough guesstimates based on the process tech used and basic aspects of the uArch.
So as their semi-custom business represents more and more sales their margins sink. I think Nvidia's claim about the margins being way too low for them to submit a design for the consoles has a lot of merit at this point.
What are the margins on those semi-custom design wins? It has to be sub 20%. Nvidia has margins around 56% and Intel posted 62.5% margins this last qtr. AMD is at 25%. Cant run a business like that and make money.
So as their semi-custom business represents more and more sales their margins sink. I think Nvidia's claim about the margins being way too low for them to submit a design for the consoles has a lot of merit at this point.
We can actually get a view of it. The margins keeps decreasing it seems.
Q2 2014: 613M$ revenue, 97M$ profit.
Q1 2015: 498M$ revenue, 45M$ profit.
Q2 2015: 563M$ revenue, 27M$ profit.
I wouldnt be surprised if at this stage, the margins are below 10%.
In that case with a 95W TDP limit. Then we talk 3Ghz area. Maybe even below.
GF/SS 14nm process is miles ahead Intel s in term of efficency at 2.41GHz
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2015/0...ates_because_nobody_expected_it_to_earn_much/
"Intel beats earnings estimates (because nobody expected it to earn much)
[...]
Once again, it was the Client Computing group – which recently absorbed the virtually penniless Mobile Computing group – that dragged its feet the most. Sales of PCs, laptops, and tablets were down 13.6 per cent, year on year, to $7.54bn. It was the unit's worst performance in four quarters.
Even worse, Client Computing's margins appear to be growing ever tighter. The unit's total operating income for the quarter was just $1.60bn, which was down a gruesome 38.6 per cent annually.
[...]
In light of that gloomy outlook, Chipzilla has embarked on austerity measures that include trimming back on R&D and – once again – lowering the axe on its workforce.
Its head count for Q2 of 2015 actually was up slightly from the previous sequential quarter, but CEO Brian Krzanich reportedly has a new wave of job cuts planned, mostly from Intel's facilities in Oregon, where the chipmaker is the state's largest private employer."
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2015/07/16/amd_q2_2015_results_bloodbath/Pray for AMD
It's always darkest before it goes pitch black
We were warned, but AMD's second-quarter results were still a shocking bloodbath, with revenue that missed analysts' estimates and came in even lower than the chipmaker's own revised guidance.
Not surprisingly, the company's net loss widened once again. A year ago, its quarterly loss was $36m. In this year's Q1 it lost $180m. This quarter, Q2, it managed to lose $181m, which was 403 per cent worse than last year's quarter.
Only you might not have thought it would be quite this bad. AMD's Computing and Graphics division reported revenue of $379m, which was down 54.2 per cent, year-on-year. Its operating loss was $147m, compared to a $6m operating loss for last year's quarter. We'll do the math for you: That's 2,350 per cent deeper into the red.