AMD Q2 Result.

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Fjodor2001

Diamond Member
Feb 6, 2010
3,989
440
126
Where did any say they was interested in Zen?

We can see they express interest in Skylake. Why not Zen?

Where have the "expressed" interest in Skylake server CPUs in media?

And where have they said they are not interested in Zen for servers?

Do you really think server CPU buyers go on "expressing themselves" in the media regarding whether they intend to buy this or that?

And especially, do you think they comment on that 15 months prior to release before they even know what the actual product will perform like, and while they are likely still under NDA?
 

TeknoBug

Platinum Member
Oct 2, 2013
2,084
31
91
I agree that x86 has a place for a long time. However, the context of the conversation was consoles, and I could very easily see the next generation on consoles going ARM. I hope it does not happen, but I can just imagine the game devs salivating at the thought of being able to play games on both a home console and a smartphone/tablet, maybe just at different settings, or at least the programming would be shared between the mobile and home gaming platforms.

Yup, mobile gaming is on the rise, it's already huge in Japan. Think of being able to play the same version of Star Fox or Mario Kart on both the NX and on a mobile device rather than a separate version for the NX and a cut down mobilized version for phones/tablets that would take extra development hours.
 

ShintaiDK

Lifer
Apr 22, 2012
20,378
145
106
Where have the "expressed" interest in Skylake server CPUs in media?

And where have they said they are not interested in Zen for servers?

Do you really think server CPU buyers go on "expressing themselves" in the media regarding whether they intend to buy this or that?

And especially, do you think they comment on that 15 months prior to release before they even know what the actual product will perform like, and while they are likely still under NDA?

You already got one example in this thread.

And there is tonnes of info around on the 2017 Skylake setups. Not so much for Zen...
 

Soulkeeper

Diamond Member
Nov 23, 2001
6,714
143
106
Actually VÍA has no debts unlike AMD and to make it worse...
VIA has an alliance with the Chinese government and has the x86/ARM hybrid project.
If nVIDIA makes an alliance with them they can win a lot.
Windows 10 could use the hybrid computing somewhat and it would be a blessing for VIA. Something like HSA, but instead it would be a cross architecture with real CPU cores.
Also they are at 28 nm and seems that they are moving to 14 nm soon.
Finally they are doing an x86 Octa Core too.

The flaw? Still using Pentium 4 tech and still having problems entering at Octa.

It seems that their x86 is still on 40nm. Are you speaking of an arm solution of theirs being on 28nm ?
 

erunion

Senior member
Jan 20, 2013
765
0
0
So as their semi-custom business represents more and more sales their margins sink. I think Nvidia's claim about the margins being way too low for them to submit a design for the consoles has a lot of merit at this point.

What are the margins on those semi-custom design wins? It has to be sub 20%. Nvidia has margins around 56% and Intel posted 62.5% margins this last qtr. AMD is at 25%. Cant run a business like that and make money.

AMD actually addressed this previously. Margins were about 12-13%, they thought they might to improve to the midteens.

Edit: My mistake, last we heard margins were already in midteens.
 
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jpiniero

Lifer
Oct 1, 2010
15,176
5,717
136
So how long do you think it'll be before bondholders start pressuring the board to pull the plug? The longer they wait, the less there will be to pay back to the bondholders.
 

mrmt

Diamond Member
Aug 18, 2012
3,974
0
76
So how long do you think it'll be before bondholders start pressuring the board to pull the plug? The longer they wait, the less there will be to pay back to the bondholders.

Bondholders cannot demand early repayment unless AMD breaches a covenant of the bond contract, so they cannot pull the plug.
 

dark zero

Platinum Member
Jun 2, 2015
2,655
140
106
Bondholders cannot demand early repayment unless AMD breaches a covenant of the bond contract, so they cannot pull the plug.
But they can start to nerf hard AMD and provokes them to break the contract themselves.
 

Fjodor2001

Diamond Member
Feb 6, 2010
3,989
440
126
You already got one example in this thread.

And there is tonnes of info around on the 2017 Skylake setups. Not so much for Zen...

What example?

And do remember that Skylake server CPUs are due for release in a few months, where as Zen is not until 12-15 months from now.

And despite that, the news are hardly filled with "server buying companies" buzzing with excitement over Skylake server CPUs either.
 

ShintaiDK

Lifer
Apr 22, 2012
20,378
145
106
What example?

And do remember that Skylake server CPUs are due for release in a few months, where as Zen is not until 12-15 months from now.

And despite that, the news are hardly filled with "server buying companies" buzzing with excitement over Skylake server CPUs either.

Like you didnt already know:
http://goparallel.sourceforge.net/16-petaflop-supercomputer-on-hold-to-wait-for-skylake-xeon/

You mean E3 Skylake CPUs? We talk about E5 and E7 here that comes in 2017.

Again, you cant show anything about Zen. No company interest, no info, no nothing. Yet you already dream it to the skies and beyond. Double standards as always.
 

Fjodor2001

Diamond Member
Feb 6, 2010
3,989
440
126
Like you didnt already know:
http://goparallel.sourceforge.net/16-petaflop-supercomputer-on-hold-to-wait-for-skylake-xeon/

You mean E3 Skylake CPUs? We talk about E5 and E7 here that comes in 2017.

Again, you cant show anything about Zen. No company interest, no info, no nothing. Yet you already dream it to the skies and beyond. Double standards as always.

Wow, one single article that mentions that they can get a lot of computing power by using many CPUs. How revolutionary, it's obvious. Apart from that nothing. And that is despite Intel being much larger than AMD, so you'd expect many more articles. But no company interest, no info, nothing. (going by your standards)
 
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mrmt

Diamond Member
Aug 18, 2012
3,974
0
76
Wow, one single article that mentions that they can get a lot of computing power by using many CPUs. How revolutionary, it's obvious. Apart from that nothing. And that is despite Intel being much larger than AMD, so you'd expect many more articles. But no company interest, no info, nothing. (going by your standards)

AMD is not shy to comment on huge semicustom contracts that yields the flabbergasting sum of less than 8 million in operating profits per quarter, but they have mentioned the grand total of 0 server partners for the upcoming Zen products. Makes a lot of sense, doesn't it? I'm sure that this is just a tactic from AMD management, the entire industry is holding their breath for Zen.
 
Aug 11, 2008
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Nintendo, Sony and even Microsoft lost the gaming market:

http://fortune.com/2015/01/15/mobile-console-game-revenues-2015/

Mobile game revenues set to overtake console games in 2015

(...)

This is why I think there is a very strong possibility (and I fervently hope it doesnt happen), that the next consoles will go ARM. The integration with mobile just seems too easy to pass up. Or maybe there will be two levels of console, a cheaper ARM one and a very high end x86 for VR type games. Even my grandson who is 18 and has been an avid PC gamer has gotten hooked on iPhone games. I see this as a very serious danger for AMD as well, because I know they are trying to diversify into ARM (they still are arent they?) but I dont see how they can compete with the giants of the industry. Maybe at least they can license the gpu tech if the consoles go ARM.

Back on topic, the market seems to have taken the recent bad news from AMD even worse than I expected. I thought the stock would bounce back quickly to above two dollars, but hasnt happened yet.
 

mrmt

Diamond Member
Aug 18, 2012
3,974
0
76
This is why I think there is a very strong possibility (and I fervently hope it doesnt happen), that the next consoles will go ARM. The integration with mobile just seems too easy to pass up. Or maybe there will be two levels of console, a cheaper ARM one and a very high end x86 for VR type games.

I think the business model of Sony and Microsoft for gaming is fundamentally broken. Mobile gaming is growing faster, has lower barriers to entrance, a potentially much wider TAM and if some numbers are correct a higher ROI than traditional gaming. While Sony and Microsoft were eyeing integration with the PC ecosystem, which would help them to reduce costs of game development, they lost integration with the mobile ecosystem, while they were fighting to dominate the living room, where people spend 1-3 hours a day, they forgot about the people's phone, which is by their side every single hour of the day.

Sony and Microsoft built the XBO and the PS4 thinking "let's offer more of the same, graphics and fun on big TVs, but without the gruesome costs of the last generation" and not "let's offer new forms of fun to our customers", which is what the mobile gaming companies are offering.

In this context ARM or x86 is largely irrelevant, as Intel has proved that they can go low enough on costs and x86 Android tablets don't have performance problems if the opportunity arises. It's more a matter of which business model is going to win in the long run, e.g., which one is going to get a bigger slice of the investment pie, and it's quite clear that the dominant force in the future is more likely to be mobile gaming leveraging on off-the-shelf devices and on the cloud and not custom-built, closed ecosystem consoles.

It's not a threat for AMD also, I don't think other ARM companies are willing to go as low as AMD in terms of costs and margins, so if AMD is willing to swallow another round of 15% margins, the deal will be theirs.

The most existential threat to AMD today is their R&D budget, and what we are watching today with the current pathetic product stack is the results of Rory Read cuts in 2012. Rory crippled AMD product stack, he left AMD with the derp family for notebooks, 2012 leftovers on desktop, nothing on servers and the same old GPU architecture that wiped out their mobile GPU business. But the situation in 2012 was far better than it is today in terms of budget, so by the looks of R&D numbers, how do you think AMD product stack will look like in 2018 and how do you think about the odds of Zen and GCN2 making any splash on the market?
 
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dark zero

Platinum Member
Jun 2, 2015
2,655
140
106
Actually mobile games are winning since there are no ET's running, but 3 big flops at the same time will kill the whole Mobile industry
 
Aug 11, 2008
10,451
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Well, to be fair, atom tablets are so cheap because Intel is subsidizing them. But I was thinking more about shared programming between mobile and theoretical ARM consoles.

I agree though, that Sony and especially MS got carried away with trying to make consoles into an integrated device able to take over the living room entertainment. Mobile is taking over a lot of gaming, and even the cable companies offer pretty much every functionality you could possibly want for streaming, recording, etc.
 

IlllI

Diamond Member
Feb 12, 2002
4,927
10
81
This is why I think there is a very strong possibility (and I fervently hope it doesnt happen), that the next consoles will go ARM.
currently the most advanced phones has maybe a playstation 2 level of graphics. that won't cut it in 2016 and beyond. most consoles have 5-10yr lifespans
 
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