AMD Q3 Results

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positivedoppler

Golden Member
Apr 30, 2012
1,112
174
106
I'm not sure why some people here are so obsessed with proving that AMD's balance sheet is bad. Hating on the company and technology..ok makes sense. Worrying that the company won't go under fast enough and trying to prove it with every post...this forum sure breeds some strange behavior.
 

mrmt

Diamond Member
Aug 18, 2012
3,974
0
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It looks more like it's going to be double those estimates but we'll see.

Maybe more than that. There will be impairment and restructuring charges of 57MM.

Ed: They should break even in terms of operating results but they have a 46MM interests bill to pay. All in all a 100MM loss isn't too far fetched.

There's also the issue of their price cuts. They are forecasting a growth in gross margins, part of it because of smaller console sales, but I wonder whether they will be able to sustain margins with the Kaveri price cuts and with the share lost by the cat family.
 
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Homeles

Platinum Member
Dec 9, 2011
2,580
0
0
I'm not sure why some people here are so obsessed with proving that AMD's balance sheet is bad. Hating on the company and technology..ok makes sense. Worrying that the company won't go under fast enough and trying to prove it with every post...this forum sure breeds some strange behavior.
Because there are an even greater number of people living in complete denial.

Welcome to hardware forums.
 
Mar 10, 2006
11,715
2,012
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If IBM has managed to hang on this long I doubt AMD is going anywhere.

IBM is a highly profitable software & services company that has struggled to find ways to *grow* its revenue base over the last few years.

It's not even close to comparable to AMD.
 

Ramses

Platinum Member
Apr 26, 2000
2,871
4
81
The struggles and changing of direction over the last thirty years to try and stay relevant and profitable reminds me of AMD. Plenty of doom and gloom was cast upon them many times in the 90's, crap all sounds the same to me as a layman end user. Hear the same about MS but they aren't going anywhere either. It's a broad sense observation, I don't even know what IBM does anymore, nothing apparent to an end user like myself but they are still kicking along, looks like they finally gave up on consumer hardware since they couldn't make any money with it. When I got into computers, IBM was it. Even Cyrix, or there tech, lives on to a degree after Nat Semi merger and Via is still around. Just not making wiz-bang desktop stuff so much. AMD ain't going nowhere, might not be making desktop chips and such like they are now, but they'll be around. I hope they succeed on the desktop/end user market, otherwise intel will continue to price gouge even more.
 

positivedoppler

Golden Member
Apr 30, 2012
1,112
174
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IBM was at one point mostly a pc maker. They made Intel into what they are today by selecting x86. Throughout the years, IBM constantly reinvented their business to stay relevent. It is admirable. Read and Lisa brought that mentality to AMD.
 

Idontcare

Elite Member
Oct 10, 1999
21,118
59
91
IBM was at one point mostly a pc maker. They made Intel into what they are today by selecting x86. Throughout the years, IBM constantly reinvented their business to stay relevent. It is admirable. Read and Lisa brought that mentality to AMD.

Every CEO AMD has ever had has made enormous shifts to the company's business.

Sanders, among his many many changes, bought NexGen so he could get the K6 design as well as hired up the DEC Alpha design team so AMD could create the K7/K8 design.

Ruiz bought ATi to create a future of fusion.

Meyer spun-off the fabs and converted AMD into a fabless company.

Rory brought in ARM and the diversification plan.

Lisa has yet to make her mark, but we can be sure one is in the offing.
 

positivedoppler

Golden Member
Apr 30, 2012
1,112
174
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Every CEO AMD has ever had has made enormous shifts to the company's business.

Sanders, among his many many changes, bought NexGen so he could get the K6 design as well as hired up the DEC Alpha design team so AMD could create the K7/K8 design.

Ruiz bought ATi to create a future of fusion.

Meyer spun-off the fabs and converted AMD into a fabless company.

Rory brought in ARM and the diversification plan.

Lisa has yet to make her mark, but we can be sure one is in the offing.


But all the previous CEO made shifts all centered around the home PC. IBM went from x86 home PCs to all over the place including software.

I credit Read and Lisa for being the first to steer AMD away from the home PC business into the business oriented embedded market. That's a complete change in market with minimal cap spending. It's somethin Nvidia and Intel has been doing for some time yet AMD couldn't get their head out of the gutter. I think if AMD is to survive and flourish, they need a consistent source of revenue not based on the hit or miss vs Intel and Nvidia. Their embedded business is over 40% of their gross during the 3rd quarter but will take a dip during the 4th quarter due to console shipment. There's a pretty good chance their embedded business alone will out sale the
 

erunion

Senior member
Jan 20, 2013
765
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IBM went from x86 home PCs to all over the place including software.

The PC was a side project for IBM.

the embedded group is hardly business oriented, its console sales. And Consoles have historically been a dead end. Console makers refuse to give margins to chipmakers and have no trouble finding a new supplier every generation.

Last generation was IBM, this generation is AMD, next generation will be someone else.
 
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positivedoppler

Golden Member
Apr 30, 2012
1,112
174
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The PC was a side project for IBM.

the embedded group is hardly business oriented, its console sales. And Consoles have historically been a dead end. Console makers refuse to give margins to chipmakers and have no trouble finding a new supplier every generation.

Last generation was IBM, this generation is AMD, next generation will be someone else.

The embedded group seem to be aimed at everything outside of PC and laptops.
The point is, IBM is great at diversifying whereas AMD couldn't really get it's head out of the home computer until Read showed up.
 

mrmt

Diamond Member
Aug 18, 2012
3,974
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The embedded group seem to be aimed at everything outside of PC and laptops.
The point is, IBM is great at diversifying whereas AMD couldn't really get it's head out of the home computer until Read showed up.

IBM biggest cash cow wasn't the PC, but the mainframe business that generated lots of cash for them. It was the same business that dictated that IBM had to have a foundry and have node R&D in house, and it was around this business that IBM built its profitable software ecosystem. So in a sense they diversified a lot, but they still retained the profitable business.

The embedded group in AMD's case is not about PCs and laptops, it is about generating custom solutions for the customers (where they provide IP and their integration expertise) on one side and providing vanilla chips but with different validation programs (to operate on aircrafts or industrial equipment). AMD didn't look at these markets before Rory because it's usually low margin and even low return, and AMD saw itself before Bulldozer as a company that could fight Intel in extremely profitable markets like servers or high end consumers. Rory just acknowledged this reality and went for it.

Given that AMD return right now is negative, if they can become a low return/low profit embedded player, it will be a victory for both management and shareholders.
 

VirtualLarry

No Lifer
Aug 25, 2001
56,449
10,119
126
Given that AMD return right now is negative, if they can become a low return/low profit embedded player, it will be a victory for both management and shareholders.

I think that we are witnessing the "Via-ization" of AMD right now. Well, except for the fact that AMD (and before that, ATI), has significant GPU experience as well, something that Via kind of lacks. (Was their chipset IGP for their Nano CPUs, done in-house, or was that IP purchased?)
 

mrmt

Diamond Member
Aug 18, 2012
3,974
0
76
I think that we are witnessing the "Via-ization" of AMD right now. Well, except for the fact that AMD (and before that, ATI), has significant GPU experience as well, something that Via kind of lacks. (Was their chipset IGP for their Nano CPUs, done in-house, or was that IP purchased?)
That's understanding too, but the process is not yet complete. As a matter of fact GPU IP alone isn't enough in a world quickly moving towards integrated SoCs. That said, AMD is still relatively big and has relatively bleeding edge IP. They must find a market brackey to call theirs ASAP or else theybwill shrink, shrink and shrink until they become another VIA.

The big issue is, what niche is this? It's not semi-custom. With semi-custom they got the consoles, and beyond that two deals of paltry 80MM per quarter (was this the culprit that fired Rory?). The embedded market can only be pursued with a cost structure that only ARM can provide AMD. And graphics isn't the way out. So they are pretty much stuck for now, only around 2016 (assuming a hard but not life threatening 2015) we'll have an idea on whether they will continue to go the way of via.
 

Idontcare

Elite Member
Oct 10, 1999
21,118
59
91
I didn't know this part. Do you think this was a bad move?

Yes, I do.

They were second only to Intel at that point. Had they diversified and opened a foundry division much like Samsung then they could have kept their fabs, their process advantage, and grown revenue to continue paying for R&D.
 

Rvenger

Elite Member <br> Super Moderator <br> Video Cards
Apr 6, 2004
6,283
5
81
...and now they can't afford to invest in a fab so they pretty much put themselves in a corner. If they leverage Samsung's fabs, this may help them over time though.
 
Aug 11, 2008
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Yes, I do.

They were second only to Intel at that point. Had they diversified and opened a foundry division much like Samsung then they could have kept their fabs, their process advantage, and grown revenue to continue paying for R&D.

Doesnt this go back to the ATI purchase though? They had so much debt they had little choice but to sell them off.
 
Mar 10, 2006
11,715
2,012
126
Yes, I do.

They were second only to Intel at that point. Had they diversified and opened a foundry division much like Samsung then they could have kept their fabs, their process advantage, and grown revenue to continue paying for R&D.

If only AMD had just bought a cheaper GPU IP vendor so that the debt-load didn't force them to spin off the fabs. Maybe a player like Imagination...

You know, sort of like what ARM did when they acquired Falanx Microsystems.
 

sm625

Diamond Member
May 6, 2011
8,172
137
106
In terms of stock price in proportion to the NASDAQ, AMD has lost 96.8% since its peak in 2006. Their chart screams bankruptcy. Their product portfolio screams bankruptcy (A deluge of underpowered cpus that make users rage, power hungry gpus, and APUs that fail to outperform even discrete alternatives that cost less money.)
 

mrmt

Diamond Member
Aug 18, 2012
3,974
0
76
They were second only to Intel at that point. Had they diversified and opened a foundry division much like Samsung then they could have kept their fabs, their process advantage, and grown revenue to continue paying for R&D.

Wouldn't that mean AMD competing against the same company that was licensing its node for AMD?
 

mrmt

Diamond Member
Aug 18, 2012
3,974
0
76
Ruiz might have still been acting CEO when the decision was first made, but really I don't remember all that well.

Ruiz was the architect of the sale. He even praised himself for making fool of ATIC by telling them that there were more bidders to AMD fabs, while ATIC was the only game in town.
 

ShintaiDK

Lifer
Apr 22, 2012
20,378
145
106
Yes, I do.

They were second only to Intel at that point. Had they diversified and opened a foundry division much like Samsung then they could have kept their fabs, their process advantage, and grown revenue to continue paying for R&D.

As Sanders said in 1994, real men have fabs. Or in a more correct manner, that having control over manufactoring was essential for a top tier company.
 
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