AMD Q313 Results

[Abwx]

Indeed , marketing has its reasons that are unknown
and unsolved by scientific logics...

 

[jpiniero]

Yes and thats why i wrote in the same post there had to be more reductions if Kaveri will not deliver big time.

Well, I'm predicting that Excavator is it for AMD's x86 business (They'd continue to sell x86 chips until OEMs stop buying). Presumably they would need less people to design ARM products, so cutting more staff seems inevitable.

 

[CHADBOGA]

Well, I'm predicting that Excavator is it for AMD's x86 business (They'd continue to sell x86 chips until OEMs stop buying). Presumably they would need less people to design ARM products, so cutting more staff seems inevitable.

Surely AMD will continue to offer small x86 cores?

Either way they have a tough path ahead of them, but I see no future for them dropping x86 and doing ARM cores only.

 

[Centauri]

I'm the opposite; I see no future for them developing x86 over the long term. And it isn't even about the performance gap, it's about the process gap. I think it has become insurmountable and it's going to make it nearly impossible for AMD to offer anything competitive against Intel in another year or so.

AMD threw in the towel against Intel when they sold their fabs, they just didn't know it at the time.

Going into ARM land though, AMD could become a gorilla very quickly among its smaller players. At worst they'd be playing a significant second fiddle to Qualcomm.

 

[CHADBOGA]

I'm the opposite; I see no future for them developing x86 over the long term. And it isn't even about the performance gap, it's about the process gap. I think it has become insurmountable and it's going to make it nearly impossible for AMD to offer anything competitive against Intel in another year or so.

AMD threw in the towel against Intel when they sold their fabs, they just didn't know it at the time.

Going into ARM land though, AMD could become a gorilla very quickly among its smaller players. At worst they'd be playing a significant second fiddle to Qualcomm.

The margins on being an x86 second supplier is likely to be far higher than the margins in the cutthroat world of ARM CPU's.

 

[Arachnotronic]

I'm the opposite; I see no future for them developing x86 over the long term. And it isn't even about the performance gap, it's about the process gap. I think it has become insurmountable and it's going to make it nearly impossible for AMD to offer anything competitive against Intel in another year or so.

AMD threw in the towel against Intel when they sold their fabs, they just didn't know it at the time.

Going into ARM land though, AMD could become a gorilla very quickly among its smaller players. At worst they'd be playing a significant second fiddle to Qualcomm.

You do realize that Intel is pushing into this space, process advantage and all, right?

AMD has nowhere to run, nowhere to hide. Chipzilla is targeting every major segment of compute, so anything high volume/high stakes AMD will have a tough time competing in.

Semi-custom jobs like the Xbox are AMD's future.

 

[krumme]

High performance x86 is dead for amd
Its sad. But the sooner amd can cut the org. To fit that the better. Look at amd results it is going down the drain even though the market is ok atm. They need miracles from kaveri and excavator to continue. Miracles only happens in good dreams and american movies. Seldom in life.

Jaguar will carry 4-8 years onwards
Jaguar derivatives can work for a handfull of years then they have to exit here to and have arm derivatives ready. Consoles will make sure of the need for jaguar derivatives and that will save amd low end x86 pc market.

15% margin = profit in the future
High margins is not the future. 15% is. Tsmc old man already said it. This future is comming to Intel also but delayed. I am pretty sure Intel is getting ready for it too; capex reductions and process "delays".

X86 is at the end of days
X86 is a dog otherwice an extremely low power armv8 apple chip couldnt beat a modern Atom at its primetime. The instruction set must be far more effective. Anand have tried to prove it was the x86 power myth using a voltmeter, ohms law and an Intel engineer. I am not convinced because the results and the world is going the other way.

The pattern of change is similar
Both Intel and amd is basically doing the same. Going from big to small and for amd that means going arm to cut more fixed cost. Its the fixed cost that drains amd not lower margins. Please start to move away from that mental hole. Everyone is so focused on it. Someone please move. The times have changed. But there is plenty of net profit for those who adapt.

 

[ShintaiDK]

15% margin = profit in the future
High margins is not the future. 15% is. Tsmc old man already said it.

Did you check TSMCs margins lately?

 

[mrmt]

Going into ARM land though, AMD could become a gorilla very quickly among its smaller players. At worst they'd be playing a significant second fiddle to Qualcomm.

Don't count on that. ARM is far from the greenfield it was 4 years ago. Now AMD has to fight Nvidia, Qualcomm, Mediatek, Samsung, Calxeda, etc. Most of these invest more money than AMD on chip design. I don't think AMD can become a giant of any kind on such a competitive environment.

 

[caswow]

Don't count on that. ARM is far from the greenfield it was 4 years ago. Now AMD has to fight Nvidia, Qualcomm, Mediatek, Samsung, Calxeda, etc. Most of these invest more money than AMD on chip design. I don't think AMD can become a giant of any kind on such a competitive environment.

i wouldnt count nvidia in that lineupD:

 

[Skurge]

i wouldnt count nvidia in that lineupD:

Or Samsung. Since they don't design any of their own chips. They sell more qualcomm chips than their own.

 

[blackened23]

Don't count on that. ARM is far from the greenfield it was 4 years ago. Now AMD has to fight Nvidia, Qualcomm, Mediatek, Samsung, Calxeda, etc. Most of these invest more money than AMD on chip design. I don't think AMD can become a giant of any kind on such a competitive environment.

Indeed, the ARM SOC camp is well established and it certainly isn't an easy field to compete in. If anything, it's probably far more difficult to establish a foothold there with the competition being so fierce.

 

[Pilum]

Or Samsung. Since they don't design any of their own chips. They sell more qualcomm chips than their own.

Samsung has started doing custom ARM designs: http://english.etnews.com/device/2806178_1304.html. Nvidia as well. I think all big players are going to custom designs. It certainly won't be easy to compete in that market.

 

[Centauri]

nVidia is far from having put all of their chips on ARM as I'm suggesting AMD do, and even if they were to AMD is still capable of a larger engineering effort as they actually are a CPU company - not to mention the larger company of the two.

 

[krumme]

Samsung has started doing custom ARM designs: http://english.etnews.com/device/2806178_1304.html. Nvidia as well. I think all big players are going to custom designs. It certainly won't be easy to compete in that market.

They all say they go custom - ofcource they do. But how much?

There is many posibilities for amd there. Make gpu for everyone. Custom cpu. Produce it where they want. Everything is forbidden or very restricted in x86 intel and gf world.

 

[bullzz]

Agree with CHADBOGA. even if amd capture 15% of server market, they will be in a much better position that having the same market share in ARM soc market.
the top two ARM soc CPUs are custom ARM cores. realistically they will be competing with nvidia and samsung to try to make it to 4th or 5th position. its good AMD is looking at custom design wins but even with a decent CPU they can try to gain market share in HPC which is intel vs nvidia at this point

 

[Abwx]

Agree with CHADBOGA. even if amd capture 15% of server market, they will be in a much better position that having the same market share in ARM soc market.

It looks like times can change to the point that 15% server market
will no more mean 15% of X86 based servers , the era of cheapness
will force its way right where the X86 offering , mainly Intel , gets
its bread and butter.

The ARM offering is a smart move considering the market trends ,
better be in the good bandwaggon if ever things lift off.

Broadcom Corp. this week said it is developing a new CPU core based on ARMv8-A architecture with server-class performance for NFV [network function virtualization], with virtualized accelerators for networking, communications, big data, storage and security applications. The new chips will be made using 16nm FinFET tech and will run at 3GHz

http://www.xbitlabs.com/news/cpu/di...st_ARMv8_A_64_Bit_Server_Microprocessors.html

 

[MisterMac]

It looks like times can change to the point that 15% server market
will no more mean 15% of X86 based servers , the era of cheapness
will force its way right where the X86 offering , mainly Intel , gets
its bread and butter.

The ARM offering is a smart move considering the market trends ,
better be in the good bandwaggon if ever things lift off.




http://www.xbitlabs.com/news/cpu/di...st_ARMv8_A_64_Bit_Server_Microprocessors.html

...basically low end dedicated hardware functions?


You think Intel makes the bucks from semi-embedded function hardware?


It gets the dough from absurd ammounts of virtualization and DB clusters.
While any ARM player still has to show better perf\watt + operability for even "micro-servers" for cheap webhosting farms.

If there's anything Intel can count on - it's finally putting old "Big iron" stuff to bed and having servers finance the mobile adventure.

 

[mrmt]

There is many posibilities for amd there. Make gpu for everyone. Custom cpu. Produce it where they want. Everything is forbidden or very restricted in x86 intel and gf world.

There is nothing forbidden on x86 for AMD. They can sell what they want, they can manufacture wherever they want and they can integrate whatever IP they can on their processor. The only thing AMD doesn't control on x86 is the future of the instruction set because they need to be compatible with Intel if they plan to have a market, but they won't have the control over the ARM instruction set too as they need to be compatible with the targeted ARM instruction set.

The upside for AMD going ARM is because they must not develop an entire chip anymore, because they can buy the ARM vanilla design and customize only the parts they deem interesting, which will reduce costs and TTM new chips. Also they go from 0 chance of selling their IP to other x86 manufacturers to a lot of potential customers for their GPU IP in the ARM ecosystem.

 

[krumme]

If we look at the results Intel is doing okey on the traditional market. The downturn in the market have stopped. But Amd is tanking big time here. Staying in x86 and amd is dead because Intel is pressed to get all market here. The change for the new strategy is urgent. And that means get away from x86 and a monopoly situation. As i said amd needs to speed up the strategy. And bet big time on mantle. They have to take a chance now or just bleed to death. If excavator is not usefull for future consoles. Dump it.

 

[Unoid]

AMD beat expectations and finally turned a profit, yet they've lost a ton in share price; I'm down 17% in my amd stock since friday... I bought more stock yesterday when it was 15% down.

Hard to make logical sense out of stock markets sometimes. Gonna have to wait however many months for them to get back to $4.00/share :/

 

[ShintaiDK]

AMD beat expectations and finally turned a profit, yet they've lost a ton in share price; I'm down 17% in my amd stock since friday... I bought more stock yesterday when it was 15% down.

Hard to make logical sense out of stock markets sometimes. Gonna have to wait however many months for them to get back to $4.00/share :/

Because consoles margins are low and their CPU division is in ruins.

Never invest with emotions.

Down to 3.20$ now.

 

[Unoid]

Because consoles margins are low and their CPU division is in ruins.

Never invest with emotions.

Down to 3.20$ now.

My premise for investing is in profitability compared to previous Q's. Obviously that isn't as important as x86 marketshare or margins.

I'll ride it out and be just fine. or AMD goes bankrupt, lol.

 

[Abwx]

You think Intel makes the bucks from semi-embedded function hardware?


It gets the dough from absurd ammounts of virtualization and DB clusters.
While any ARM player still has to show better perf\watt + operability for even "micro-servers" for cheap webhosting farms.

Cheapness will prevail , it has always worked this way
in the semi industry.

http://www.electronicsweekly.com/news/business/arm-datacentre-processor-from-amd-2013-10/

 

[Phynaz]

My premise for investing is in profitability compared to previous Q's. Obviously that isn't as important as x86 marketshare or margins.

I'll ride it out and be just fine. or AMD goes bankrupt, lol.

So you base investing decisions based upon current performance?

You realize the market is priced based upon future performance?