AMD Q4 2013 result. 1.59B$ revenue, 5.3B$ for the year

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CHADBOGA

Platinum Member
Mar 31, 2009
2,135
832
136
That was a pretty poor guidance. -16% next quarter. Did AMD lose even more market share to Intel? That tells me despite the hype Kaveri isn't selling that well or is not projected to sale that well.
Soon all the Intel Fanboys who trash AMD will get their wish, but be prepare to pay $300 for a celeron when AMD goes under or exit the PC business completely.

Please no. I don't want to go back to the bad old days of Pentium II pricing.

LOL Stop being so melodramatic.

If AMD exits the x86 market, Intel price rises are likely to be relatively modest.

Why????

Because AMD is pretty much already irrelevant to Intel's pricing.

The major factor in Intel's current pricing is the previous generation of Intel CPU's.

People would simply not replace existing systems until CPU's or motherboards stopped working, and that would leave Intel with empty fabs, and empty fabs is expensive.

Nor does Intel want to be giving people more reasons to be running into the ever loving arms of ARM.
 

monstercameron

Diamond Member
Feb 12, 2013
3,818
1
0
LOL Stop being so melodramatic.

If AMD exits the x86 market, Intel price rises are likely to be relatively modest.

Why????

Because AMD is pretty much already irrelevant to Intel's pricing.

The major factor in Intel's current pricing is the previous generation of Intel CPU's.

People would simply not replace existing systems until CPU's or motherboards stopped working, and that would leave Intel with empty fabs, and empty fabs is expensive.

Nor does Intel want to be giving people more reasons to be running into the ever loving arms of ARM.

following the train-of-thought, intel would have to drop prices for a large portion of the products they sell in order to compete with arm, maybe intel only has these relatively high prices due to AMD.
 

Torn Mind

Lifer
Nov 25, 2012
11,782
2,685
136
AMD's ability to influence price died with Bulldozer. The $270 FX-8150 was reduced to current FX-8350's pricing, killing the profit margin they expected to make with that chip and its successor. So now, the FX-8350 is cheaper than the i5 chips. Yes, there are the FX-9370 and 9590, but those chips require more expensive boards and cooling in addition to their higher price tag and lack of performance compared to the Xeon E3s, so the volume sold is a mere trickle with those chips.

They now follow Intel's lead, although Kaveri has temporarily bucked that trend with a $173 price tag for its flagship 10; the A10 chip might be cannibalized by the A8-7600 via undercutting its volume sold, however. Many APU buyers are used to the $120 or so pricetag.

Intel is rearing its ugly monopoly head via price discrimination already, but I don't see them jacking up price because they already have issues with moving inventory. Celerons don't have AVX and other features more i3s have. That signifies to me that Intel is already struggling to move their expensive parts and need to create incentive just get people to buy an i3 from them, much less an i5. But they still sell the Celerons, even though the AMD's only competition in that market was the Sempron single core before the A4-4000 was released, which means that they still see money to be made from a $45 chip since they could simply not release them at all.
 

sandorski

No Lifer
Oct 10, 1999
70,128
5,657
126
AMD is in better shape now than they have been in for many years. This is a company that knows how to survive on the edge of Bankruptcy, Profit is the exception.
 

positivedoppler

Golden Member
Apr 30, 2012
1,112
174
106
AMD is in better shape now than they have been in for many years. This is a company that knows how to survive on the edge of Bankruptcy, Profit is the exception.

What makes you say that? They're bleeding money out of their PC business again. I don't think the push litecoin and PS4 and Xbox last quarter will eventually lose momentum. When Nvidia releases their next whatever, amd will be hurting.
 

sandorski

No Lifer
Oct 10, 1999
70,128
5,657
126
What makes you say that? They're bleeding money out of their PC business again. I don't think the push litecoin and PS4 and Xbox last quarter will eventually lose momentum. When Nvidia releases their next whatever, amd will be hurting.

They always bleed somewhere. This discussion has been going on forever. The Athlon years was the exception.
 

blastingcap

Diamond Member
Sep 16, 2010
6,654
5
76
Glad I got out when I did. I started a small position a couple of weeks ago thinking I'd dump it shortly before earnings came out, I almost did so at $4.55 but wound up taking $4.30 due to my dawdling... still a nice profit though. Lots of people have totally stupid and non-math-based fanboy analysis of AMD, thinking that consoles haven't been priced in or that selling out of R9 Radeons increases their sales much (it doesn't, they make nothing on products not sold, and the price markups are taken by retailers and AIBs, not AMD, plus that price segment of the discrete GPU market segment is only ~15% of sales anyway). Their CPU side is crippled and Kaveri wasn't good enough. That's not to say that the stock won't gain momentum again, but I rode this momentum stock as long as I could and am not going to re-buy anytime soon.

None of what I said above is about their products, just their stock price. $4.60 was clearly overvaluation. I don't want them to go out of business as that would reduce competition and it would ultimately decrease performancerice ratios.
 
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Torn Mind

Lifer
Nov 25, 2012
11,782
2,685
136
They always bleed somewhere. This discussion has been going on forever. The Athlon years was the exception.

Their main problem is keeping talent(engineers don't come cheap) in the face of these losses, that exclusive contract with Global Foundries they have until 2024, and the fact that GloFlo is trailing in the process node race(worsened since Ruiz deliberately delayed advancement to a new node to raking in more short-term profits). Hector Ruiz sure planted a couple of the seeds of destruction for AMD.
 

krumme

Diamond Member
Oct 9, 2009
5,956
1,595
136
That was a pretty poor guidance. -16% next quarter. Did AMD lose even more market share to Intel? That tells me despite the hype Kaveri isn't selling that well or is not projected to sale that well.
Soon all the Intel Fanboys who trash AMD will get their wish, but be prepare to pay $300 for a celeron when AMD goes under or exit the PC business completely.

They expect to pay gf 250m q1 thats same as 2013 rate meaning kaveri must be doing okey. But ofcource they need something new. And its not excavator. Lol
 

NTMBK

Lifer
Nov 14, 2011
10,269
5,134
136
Thank god they turned a profit, even if some of their product ranges are still underperforming massively. Here's hoping they actually manage to get Jaguar right this time with Beema and Mullins, and see the kind of sales they used to with Bobcat.
 

senseamp

Lifer
Feb 5, 2006
35,787
6,195
126
Is it oversold? The earnings don't look too terrible, were the expectations higher?
 

mrmt

Diamond Member
Aug 18, 2012
3,974
0
76
They expect to pay gf 250m q1 thats same as 2013 rate meaning kaveri must be doing okey. But ofcource they need something new. And its not excavator. Lol

No, it's not. They did not fulfill the WSA quota, but the penalty was waved by Globalfoundries. Contrary to what Kumar told us in the last Q&A, we didn't get the new WSA commitment in Q4 and we are already in Q1, meaning that AMD investors will fly blind regarding the purchase commitments for the rest of the year, and that the WSA negotiations seem to be much more tougher than expected.

Plus the situation is very different. Q113 AMD had Richland, which is almost a better binned Trinity which was an established product line, and they were still dealing with Sandy Bridge on the server market. Today they are dealing with Ivy Bridge on the server and ramping up Kaveri. They might just swallow a lot of Kaveri inventory now and worry about it later as long as they are selling Richland as well.

They are forecasting that they won't lose any CPU market share this quarter, a claim they weren't able to sustain for almost every quarter since new management took over.

I think this sentence from Kumar summarizes what AMD expects for the entire year:

Kumar said:
(...) I’m confident we can free cash flow positive for the year, despite having paid the $200 million to GlobalFoundries, which we did in the early part of January.

Yeah, they aren't out of the woods yet.
 

krumme

Diamond Member
Oct 9, 2009
5,956
1,595
136
Thank god they turned a profit, even if some of their product ranges are still underperforming massively. Here's hoping they actually manage to get Jaguar right this time with Beema and Mullins, and see the kind of sales they used to with Bobcat.

Jaguar is in the consoles so i would be saying its doing better than ever. Bt is here. Whatever they call the temash successor its to fat for tablets, beIdes intel is paying to offload bt, and the market for low end notebooks is more compettitve than when bobcat was far superior to atom. Its not going to happen again.

Amd can hope they can offload future console variants to gf and thereby meeting their wafer agreement.

Secondly they need mantle and hsa adoption to succeed as its their platform into arm mobile and other embedded markets.

Hopefully they are already working on ps 4.1 - to get some income stream from it in a few years.
 

NTMBK

Lifer
Nov 14, 2011
10,269
5,134
136
Jaguar is in the consoles so i would be saying its doing better than ever. Bt is here. Whatever they call the temash successor its to fat for tablets, beIdes intel is paying to offload bt, and the market for low end notebooks is more compettitve than when bobcat was far superior to atom. Its not going to happen again.

Amd can hope they can offload future console variants to gf and thereby meeting their wafer agreement.

Secondly they need mantle and hsa adoption to succeed as its their platform into arm mobile and other embedded markets.

Hopefully they are already working on ps 4.1 - to get some income stream from it in a few years.

True about Jaguar in consoles- I was mainly talking about Temash, sorry. Its complete lack of CPU turbo (a step backwards from Bobcat!) crippled it in low-power performance. Can you imagine if Bay Trail had no turbo and was limited to 1.5GHz?

Hopefully some console SoCs will be made at GloFo, yes, but AMD still need someone to make a process suitable for high performance CPUs. I don't think either GloFo or TSMC has anything on their roadmap which would make a high performance desktop CPU feasible- there's a reason why Carrizo is going down to a 65W TDP... Being free from GloFo doesn't help them compete with Intel if they don't have a better alternative to jump to.

And a Playstation 4.1 sounds like a terrible idea! D: As Sega demonstrated in the 90s, fragmenting your console user base is a bad move...
 

ShintaiDK

Lifer
Apr 22, 2012
20,378
145
106
Yeah, they aren't out of the woods yet.

Wow, yet again did they keep that 200M$ delayed payment just in front enough to show a positive Q4. Else Q4 would have been a loss. Thats creative accounting.
 

mrmt

Diamond Member
Aug 18, 2012
3,974
0
76
Wow, yet again did they keep that 200M$ delayed payment just in front enough to show a positive Q4. Else Q4 would have been a loss. Thats creative accounting.

Expense =! cash outflow.

That 200MM was already in their results, booked in Q412 on that gargantuan WSA loss. The payment itself doesn't affect the results.

What was pointing is that if everything they are expecting is something slightly above 200MM in FCF, we cannot expect too much from the results in the next quarters.
 

mrmt

Diamond Member
Aug 18, 2012
3,974
0
76
Jaguar is in the consoles so i would be saying its doing better than ever. Bt is here. Whatever they call the temash successor its to fat for tablets, beIdes intel is paying to offload bt, and the market for low end notebooks is more compettitve than when bobcat was far superior to atom. Its not going to happen again.

HSA + Mantle on mobile? Doesn't sound like Nvidia's CUDA + Physx on mobile? That strategy, GPU + Software support + deficient CPU was already tried and defeated on the mobile market by Nvidia AND by AMD on on the PC market. Why AMD would try and succeed with this failed strategy on the mobile market?
 
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Dresdenboy

Golden Member
Jul 28, 2003
1,730
554
136
citavia.blog.de
Is it oversold? The earnings don't look too terrible, were the expectations higher?
It looks like the usual pre-earnings run. If so, it might even not be oversold now, because it might have been overbought before.

CS division had a small loss and its outlook (ignoring seasonality) is weak. GVS did - despite "low teen" console SoC margins - deliver an operating income of $121M. Cash + equivalents increased by $326M.

I'd like to know where the $48M legal settlement came from.
 

Dresdenboy

Golden Member
Jul 28, 2003
1,730
554
136
citavia.blog.de
HSA + Mantle on mobile? Doesn't sound like Nvidia's CUDA + Physx on mobile? That strategy, GPU + Software support + deficient CPU was already tried and defeated on the mobile market by Nvidia AND by AMD on on the PC market. Why AMD would try and succeed with this failed strategy on the mobile market?
It's easy to mix things by accident or on purpose.

HSA is more like Java/(Dalvik+parallel compute on CPU and/or GPU compared CUDA on GPU only. HSA also runs at different CPUs and GPUs. Recently I've seen that even Vivante (which we use on a prototype board) is supporting HSA.

So where is HSA comparable to GPU + Software? And PhysX is even more constrained - to physics and collision calculations.

HSA: unified memory + low latency cores (x86, ARM, etc.) + throughput cores (GCN, Mali, Vivante, etc.) + software stack for seamless use of serial and parallel code components with low overhead (which alone often prevents the use of parallel units), flexible adaption to different HW environments (e.g. larger, smaller GPUs).

GPU + Software: discrete memory spaces with significant copy overhead, lower portability, driver hassles, control overhead, etc.
 

witeken

Diamond Member
Dec 25, 2013
3,899
193
106
10.6 Billion for 2013 and 10.1 Billion in 2012 for R&D lead to what revolutionary products exactly?

14nm process node, 10, 7 and 5nm following at a constant pace after 14nm with high yields, and other manufacturing advances? Haswell, Broadwell, Skylake and Cannonlake, Crystal Well, gen8 and gen9, Atom with Silvermont, Bay Trail, Merrifield, Moorefield, Goldmont, Broxton, SoFIA, Quark and other Internet of Things stuff, SSDs, chipsets, 450mm wafers, III-V semiconductors?
 

BallaTheFeared

Diamond Member
Nov 15, 2010
8,115
0
71
You forgot pushing AMD out of severs and high performance x86 and entrance into low power markets.

Oh, and profits.
 

beginner99

Diamond Member
Jun 2, 2009
5,223
1,598
136
Intel's atom processors still can't compete directly with ARM based processors.

true because the crappy atoms are way faster and in a different league. Note that all "fast" ARM cpus are custom ones and not actually from ARM except the ISA (which is cheap in terms of R&D).

So bascially this:

What are you trying to accomplish by comparing the R&D budget of an IP provider against a vertically integrated corporation? Why don't we add Qualcomm ($2B) and TSMC ($2.5B) CAPEX to that and then compare again?
 

mrmt

Diamond Member
Aug 18, 2012
3,974
0
76
HSA is more like Java/(Dalvik+parallel compute on CPU and/or GPU compared CUDA on GPU only. HSA also runs at different CPUs and GPUs. Recently I've seen that even Vivante (which we use on a prototype board) is supporting HSA.

My point still stands: They will have a deficient CPU design, and the only good thing they have is their GPU part that might help accelerate some workloads, but not all. Once you move to more conventional workloads, AMD deficiencies will be highlighted again.

And assuming that HSA will ever take off, given that HSA is an open standard, what prevents someone from outspending AMD in designing and get a better CPU and better GPU, and better HSA performance? That's right, nothing. So even if HSA succeeds, there won't be much market for them.
 

krumme

Diamond Member
Oct 9, 2009
5,956
1,595
136
No, it's not. They did not fulfill the WSA quota, but the penalty was waved by Globalfoundries. Contrary to what Kumar told us in the last Q&A, we didn't get the new WSA commitment in Q4 and we are already in Q1, meaning that AMD investors will fly blind regarding the purchase commitments for the rest of the year, and that the WSA negotiations seem to be much more tougher than expected.

Plus the situation is very different. Q113 AMD had Richland, which is almost a better binned Trinity which was an established product line, and they were still dealing with Sandy Bridge on the server market. Today they are dealing with Ivy Bridge on the server and ramping up Kaveri. They might just swallow a lot of Kaveri inventory now and worry about it later as long as they are selling Richland as well.

They are forecasting that they won't lose any CPU market share this quarter, a claim they weren't able to sustain for almost every quarter since new management took over.

I think this sentence from Kumar summarizes what AMD expects for the entire year:



Yeah, they aren't out of the woods yet.

Ofcource they are not out the woods. Its a long way if the get there at all.

Management prior made a statement of a minimum balance of 700m. Whatever bs they said about cpu marketshare they reached that important goal and then some.

Wsa will constantly be a mess. And continue to be. No surprices here.

Lets see next quarters about inventory. That is if gf can make an inventory. Lol.
 
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