AMD Q4 results

[Haserath]

Just because you dont like them doesnt mean they dont perform

You need more than 5GHz on the 3570K to compete against a 4.6GHz FX8350 even in Intel optimized Cinebench 11.5. Every FX8350 will OC to 4.6GHz, can you say the same for the 5GHz OC on the Core i5 3570K ???

I was making a baseless, generalized statement. I know you like it since you push it all the time.

The FX wins slightly in well threaded benches and loses much more in lightly threaded benches. That's how it performs on average when they're clocked the same. That's my opinion from what I've seen.

I'd just rather choose the more consistent and efficient performer, as long as there isn't a big price difference.

AMD loses in single threaded performance at the same clock, agreed?

 

[Ibra]

Abwx, I agree with you. These Intel/NVidia posters are used to bashing AMD in AMD threads. I only said that if an Intel/NVidia poster(s) doesn't like AMD thread, then just stay away from the AMD thread.

One fan of Intel/NVidia was equating the words "stay away" equal to censorship. That isn't censorship. I don't like Intel/NVidia products due to ethical reasons. That is my choice. It has nothing to do with censorship.

Most (but not all) posts in AMD threads by an Intel/NVidia poster are AMD bashing or pro-AMD poster(s) bashing posts. They even bash AMD without provoking. I don't know what is wrong with these people.

I find AMD posters honest and intelligent. I respect most pro-AMD posters on this and the other sites.

I think some people have herd mentality. It might be difficult for some people to control themselves.

I know what is going on in their head. It isn't anyone else's job to fix them. Some of them are very educated people.

I workerd for a Professor who had a PhD degree and who was like that. He even committed suicide for something meaningless. That was his choice and no one else could stop him. Most of the graduate students knew his troubles. I always ignored him.

We need a ignore button in this forum.

Somebody call the FBI, because after AMD's bankruptcy mass shooting is coming. :thumbsdown:

 

[SiliconWars]

Somebody call the FBI, because after AMD's bankruptcy mass shooting is coming. :thumbsdown:

This is exactly the kind of ridiculous comments him and others are talking about. Some of the intel fans are a joke with constant attacks and thread crapping every single AMD thread. If it's not a flat out attack the technology discussion instead degenerates into a "how much money did AMD lose" discussion instead.

 

[Haserath]

This is exactly the kind of ridiculous comments him and others are talking about. Some of the intel fans are a joke with constant attacks and thread crapping every single AMD thread. If it's not a flat out attack the technology discussion instead degenerates into a "how much money did AMD lose" discussion instead.

They also whine and moan about Intel not increasing performance enough if that's any consolation.:whiste:

 

[amdisstaying]

And then your numbers... you and Eyefinity seem to have a flair to take numbers out of thin air and present then as factual truths, even when they blatantly contradict AMD own estimates. I don't see any reasoning for that, except trolling.

http://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSE:AMD&fstype=ii&ei=bHACUcCZNqmtiALweg

Look at the cost of Revenue & R&D columns. R&D is almost between $300 millions & $350 millions per quarter. The cost of Revenue column varies from $775 millions to $1500+ millions per quarter.

In my opinion, I can assume that Q2 2012 was a typical quarter for AMD. Q3 2012 and Q4 2012 are not going to be the representative quarters. They are abnormal quarters.

AMD can't spend $1300 millions to $1400 millions on R&D in the present circumstances. By Q4 2013, AMD's operating expenses are going to be $450 millions per quarter down from $610 millions in Q1 2012.

AMD's 2011 revenue was $6.57 billions. For 2012, AMD has $5.42 billions in revenues. The graphics business was profitable in 2012.

AMD is reducing $600 millions in expenses in 2013. AMD has to cut R&D by $300 millions to $400 millions. That leaves R&D in the range of $900 millions to $1000 millions.

Assuming that AMD's 2013 revenue is $5.5 billions to $5.7 billions. That means that AMD could lose $100-200 millions in 2013 or it could break even.

AMD is going in the right direction. AMD will concentrate on high margin products. So the product mix is going to be the key.

During 2H 2013, AMD will ship Kabini/Temash, Richland and Piledriver FX CPUs and HD 8000m/8000 GPUs based on the graphics core next architecture.

AMD will be shipping Kaveri APUs in Q4 2013. They might even have a Piledriver+ CPU.

Microsoft will be shipping Xbox Next in November, 2013. Sony will be starting production of PS4 in Q4 2013. The Sony PS4 is expected to ship in Q1 2014 or Q2 2014.

AMD is also working on Jaguar+ core. They expect to ship Jaguar+ core in the first half of 2014.

All Llano and Phenom II X4/X6 are going to be in history books by Q4 2013. I say again that AMD can see the light at the end of the tunnel by July, 2013.


So AMD will be competing with Intel/NVidia with new products. In my opinion, AMD got a good chance to make a strong come back in 2014.

So don't count AMD out yet. Two items are critical, sale of the Austin Campus & the performance of GF's 28nm bulk/HKMG process.

AMD has between $1000 millions to $1200 millions in cash now. AMD has $300 millions to $500 millions extra cash now.

 

[pablo87]

The storm has passed. AMD is on the right track save for the WSA. But for those who insist, we should start talking about Intel's break even point...

Because intel is a heavy capex co., we have to look at cash flow.

sure income before tax is 3.15B but you have to subtract $13B annual capex for 2013 and add $1.625B quarterly depreciation, leaving us with $1.5B of cash flow in Q4.

Excluding depreciation, intel's margins are 70% meaning that a $2.2B sales drop (down 16%) would result in negative cash flow. In other words, Intel's break-even is ~$11.2B revenue per quarter according to my quick and dirty model.

 

[amdisstaying]

They also whine and moan about Intel not increasing performance enough if that's any consolation.:whiste:

Look at the poster "IBra", I hope the site admin do something about it. No one provoked him to post a useless comment.

Every one has an opinion. That is fine.

But the comment by this new poster "IBra" isn't only useless but shows this person should not be in any forum. He is a new poster from Yahoo.com.

I will not reply to the poster "IBra" directly.

 

[Haserath]

AMD will be facing strong competition though. Intel is releasing Haswell and Silvermont.

Then there's ARM and especially Tegra.

I think AMD is going to have closer to 5B revenue in 2013.

 

[Jaydip]

Bashed by who ? dare tell us if there s somebody else
than an usual AMD hater in this list of "who"...

Bashed because they over hyped BD, bashed because it couldn't beat 2500K and you could have it for less.

 

[Jaydip]

Look at the poster "IBra", I hope the site admin do something about it. No one provoked him to post a useless comment.

Every one has an opinion. That is fine.

But the comment by this new poster "IBra" isn't only useless but shows this person should not be in any forum. He is a new poster from Yahoo.com.

I will not reply to the poster "IBra" directly.

Last time I checked you are not the admin here and you can be as opinionated as him.CPU forum is much more civilized compared to VC&G here.

 

[amdisstaying]

I think AMD is going to have closer to 5B revenue in 2013.

It is really hard to predict AMD's 2013 revenue. I think it will be between $5.5 billions to $5.7 billions.

There are too many moving parts. Yields & Product Mix are going to be very important.

Reducing the cost by $150 millions per quarter is a big deal. Also they have to cut on R&D. Most of their designs are in the final phase. So they can cut R&D and that will balance the book for 2013.

 

[Abwx]

Bashed because they over hyped BD, bashed because it couldn't beat 2500K and you could have it for less.

Intel HD3000/4000 were hyperyped with the intel fan
claiming (future) superiority over AMDs APUs , yet ,
once the bench talked i saw nothing of the sort ,
only intel fanbois claiming that , hey , they were
good enough , after all...

You bashing is extremely discriminatory , of course ,
but this is no surprise , i m used to the reminescent
bad faith that hang by there.

That said , find an intel topic and be happy to post there ,
you re bringing nothing here looking at your previous posts.

 

[Nemesis 1]

Look at the poster "IBra", I hope the site admin do something about it. No one provoked him to post a useless comment.

Every one has an opinion. That is fine.

But the comment by this new poster "IBra" isn't only useless but shows this person should not be in any forum. He is a new poster from Yahoo.com.

I will not reply to the poster "IBra" directly.

Here watch this , Which would you like the red the white one . PM me your Post mark and I will send one of your choice directly.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NKY_qzEzqwU

 

[Haserath]

The storm has passed. AMD is on the right track save for the WSA. But for those who insist, we should start talking about Intel's break even point...

Because intel is a heavy capex co., we have to look at cash flow.

sure income before tax is 3.15B but you have to subtract $13B annual capex for 2013 and add $1.625B quarterly depreciation, leaving us with $1.5B of cash flow in Q4.

Excluding depreciation, intel's margins are 70% meaning that a $2.2B sales drop (down 16%) would result in negative cash flow. In other words, Intel's break-even is ~$11.2B revenue per quarter according to my quick and dirty model.

Low margin tablets might actually put Intel into that position too.

 

[krumme]

The storm has passed. AMD is on the right track save for the WSA. But for those who insist, we should start talking about Intel's break even point...

Because intel is a heavy capex co., we have to look at cash flow.

sure income before tax is 3.15B but you have to subtract $13B annual capex for 2013 and add $1.625B quarterly depreciation, leaving us with $1.5B of cash flow in Q4.

Excluding depreciation, intel's margins are 70% meaning that a $2.2B sales drop (down 16%) would result in negative cash flow. In other words, Intel's break-even is ~$11.2B revenue per quarter according to my quick and dirty model.

I agree, Intel is very weak here. And its their only weak side imho.

As a practical example of the situation we have a review on anand comparing a SB processor to an ARM15 solution. Thats a nightmare.

Now if Mubadala would prevent Intel from pouring yet more money into processdevelopment, threatening their GF investment, they would know, that by far the most easy and cost effective way to hurt Intel, is to use that weakness. Simply by flodding the market with kabini/temash/kavery whatever. Keep Intels margins under brutal attack.

Take the investment now up front - and make the attack on the margins and the heavy capex.

What happens then?

TSMC will get their money anyway. GF cant produce anything of major value yet. Use Intel strategy against themselves.

 

[Abwx]

AMD will be facing strong competition though. Intel is releasing Haswell and Silvermont.

Then there's ARM and especially Tegra.

I think AMD is going to have closer to 5B revenue in 2013.

H2 is not a concern i think but H1 is , thoses H2 products
should have better came this half given the current economic
pressure and increased competitive level.

 

[pablo87]

Low margin tablets might actually put Intel into that position too.

possibly. The risk to the mix and thus ASP short term is probably minimal, longer term yes its a real issue.

 

[Jaydip]

Intel HD3000/4000 were hyperyped with the intel fan
claiming (future) superiority over AMDs APUs , yet ,
once the bench talked i saw nothing of the sort ,
only intel fanbois claiming that , hey , they were
good enough , after all...

You bashing is extremely discriminatory , of course ,
but this is no surprise , i m used to the reminescent
bad faith that hang by there.

That said , find an intel topic and be happy to post there ,
you re bringing nothing here looking at your previous posts.

Your deflection is not doing any good here either. IIRC I didn't start bashing AMD at all but rather some people asked why they are constantly bashed.Intel IGP sucks and I thought it was a common knowledge.

 

[pablo87]

I agree, Intel is very weak here. And its their only weak side imho.

As a practical example of the situation we have a review on anand comparing a SB processor to an ARM15 solution. Thats a nightmare.

Now if Mubadala would prevent Intel from pouring yet more money into processdevelopment, threatening their GF investment, they would know, that by far the most easy and cost effective way to hurt Intel, is to use that weakness. Simply by flodding the market with kabini/temash/kavery whatever. Keep Intels margins under brutal attack.

Take the investment now up front - and make the attack on the margins and the heavy capex.

What happens then?

TSMC will get their money anyway. GF cant produce anything of major value yet. Use Intel strategy against themselves.

Agreed. I've never understood why they would care to "WSA" AMD when they're losing their shirt over at Gloflo anyway. Build up AMD should be their long term priority since if AMD does well, Gloflo will eventually.

They thought they are clever to draw blood out of AMD thru all these WSA amendments but what happens is it causes confidence crisis in AMD with investors, customers and employees so no good comes out of it whatsoever.

Unfortunately, they don't seem to have a friggin' clue.

 

[Idontcare]

I hope the site admin do something about it.

Please use the formal channels for reporting posting abuses.

In the lower-left corner of every post is a "report post" icon that looks like a red triangle:

Click that, fill in the comment box with something that is informative and coherent and the complaint will be logged into its proper queue for the moderator team to review in due course.

 

[Nemesis 1]

It will certainly be an interesting year . I really think people are misjudgeing the power the haswell ulv 2core gt3 will produce. I also think people are over estamating what intel will want for these chips. It stands to be by far their highest volumn chip . The lower cost tablets I don't think the z2580 stands up to temash. So amd wins here . Intel wins the rest all the way up and below temash. Silvermont cores appear in products around thanksgiving so that will eat into temash and A15 territory. Its going to be an interesting here , But when its all over the story of 2013 will be haswell 2 core SOC/SOIX /GT3 .

 

[mrmt]

In my opinion, I can assume that Q2 2012 was a typical quarter for AMD. Q3 2012 and Q4 2012 are not going to be the representative quarters. They are abnormal quarters.

Well, I guess we can stop here because this comment of yours deserve further analysis. Q212 was the arrival of IVB, it was right there that things went downhill for AMD.

AMD results rapidly deteriorated in Q3 not because the market was weak, because there was no significant reduction in demand there, but because AMD big core line could not compete with Intel big core line. In order to consider that Q212 was a normal quarter for AMD, you would have to assume that AMD will be able to revert to status quo ante in the big core line against Haswell, not against IVB. And they would also have to revert GPU sales to pre-mobile kepler levels.

While it's not that hard to fathom a scenario like this in GPU, as AMD is ahead with their 8000 series, I can't see AMD reverting the downward trend in CPUs, regardless of Kabini/Temash.

Another scenario is that AMD would have to stop the bleeding in CPU market share against Haswell and fill the revenue shortfall with embedded sales. The latter is a long shot but still ok, the former isn't.

There is a reason on why Kumar didn't commit himself with the 1.3 billion in sales target in Q313, it is because he isn't really sure he can attain this goal. Kumar is committing to a structure that would allow to break even with 1.3 billion in sales and 520 million in OPEX/non-OPEX/Debt, nothing more.

So yes, you are being more optimistic than AMD execs. Your scenario isn't necessarily impossible, but it's a very long shot. Too long to be taken as a baseline scenario.

 

[guskline]

Funny how Wall Street is seeing AMD. I'm now seeing articles that AMD is an "investment opportunity". AMD can use all the good news it can get.

 

[guskline]

mrmt: Can't argue with your analysis about the cpu end of Intel vs AMD. Heck SB was smacking AMD silly and then came the "Bulldozer" debacle. Has PileDriver righted the ship? No. However, at least it's a viable big core option. I hear from time to time the salvation claims from Steamroller fans but I think AMD's first goal is to stay afloat by mass producing APUs. I think PileDriver will be refined and extended and Steamroller as will originally knew it will be morphed into something else. To survive, AMD has to cede the mid and upper level cpus for the time being.

 

[mrmt]

Now if Mubadala would prevent Intel from pouring yet more money into processdevelopment, threatening their GF investment, they would know, that by far the most easy and cost effective way to hurt Intel, is to use that weakness. Simply by flodding the market with kabini/temash/kavery whatever. Keep Intels margins under brutal attack.

You mean two companies losing a lot of money should try to burn A LOT MORE money in order to attack a company that has many times their productive capacity?